ARTICLE IN PRESS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342

www.elsevier.com/locate/jastp

Sunshine and global solar radiation estimation at

different sites in Egypt
Mossad El-Metwally
Physics Department, Faculty of Education at Suez, Suez Canal University, Suez, Egypt

Received 15 December 2003; received in revised form 19 April 2005; accepted 20 April 2005
Available online 20 June 2005

Abstract

A simple non-linear method is proposed for estimating relative sunshine duration based on monthly mean daily
maximum and minimum air temperatures and cloud cover fraction at six sites in Egypt, where long-term period (9–15
years) data were recorded. This method gives low errors (mean bias error is about
0.4% and root mean square is
about 2.3% for pooled data), so it can be used in case of unavailability of sunshine duration data. Also, a non-linear
equation has been proposed at the same sites to estimate monthly mean daily global radiation based on observed and
estimated values of relative sunshine duration. This method was compared with linear Ångström–Prescott and double
linear of Garg–Garg equation. These methods were tested seasonally and at different sky conditions (clear, partially
cloudy and overcast skies). Also they have been tested against 32 stations dataset, at worldwide sites. The results show
that the bias error for the proposed method is low, average values to mean bias error and root mean square error are
around 0.1% and 6%, respectively, while they are around 3% and 7% to the other methods at pooled data. Generally,
the proposed method preformed better than the others.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Proposed method (PM); Ångström–Prescott method; Global solar radiation; MMDGR; Relative sunshine duration

1. Introduction need to know the average of global solar radiation

Knowledge of global solar radiation is essential in the
prediction, study and design of the economic viability of
systems which use solar energy. Information on global
solar radiation received at any sites (preferably gained
over a long period) should be useful not only to the
locality where the radiation data is collected but also for
the wider world community (Massaquoi, 1988). A global
study of the world distribution of global solar radiation
requires knowledge of the radiation data in various
countries and for the purpose of world wide marketing,
the designers and manufactures of solar equipment will
Fax: +202 62 564872
E-mail address: melmetwally@yahoo.com.
available in different and specific regions (Ibrahim,
1985). Obviously, measured data is the best form of this
knowledge. Unfortunately, there are very few meteor-
ological stations that measure global solar radiation,
especially in developing countries like Egypt. For such
stations where no measured data are available, the
common practice is to estimate global solar radiation
from other measured meteorological parameters like
relative sunshine duration (Akpabio and Etuk, 2003).
The earth-atmosphere system receives energy from the
sun as a continuous electromagnetic flux at an average
rate of 173 trillion kW, or 1353.73 W m
2 of cross-
sectional area (Thekaekara, 1970). The solar energy
incident on the Egyptian land has a magnitude of
12–30 MJ m
2 day
1, and the sunshine duration is

1364-6826/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2005.04.004
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
1332 M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342
between 3500 and 4500 h year
1 (Tadros, 2000). Many
authors at many places have investigated the correlation
between sunshine duration and global radiation in
different empirical methods. Choosing among these
models usually takes into account two characteristics:
(1) the availability of meteorological and other data
required as model input and (2) the model accuracy (see
Badescu, 2002). This is according to the reports of task
IX of International Energy Agency (IEA) (for review see
e.g. May et al., 1984; Bener, 1984; Davies et al., 1988;
Festa and Ratto, 1993). In most practical cases the first
criterion is not fulfilled so that the sophisticated
programs based on the solution of the radiative transfer
equation cannot be used. As a consequence, the other
models (which we here call ‘simple models’) have been
widely used. Simple relationships for estimating sun-
shine duration and solar radiation involving such factors
as cloud cover, percentage of specific cloud types,
evaporation, humidity, number of days with dust or
smoke, air temperature, precipitation, latitude and
elevation, have been widely reported (Linacre, 1992).
The aim of this work was to propose a very simple
non-linear method to estimate relative sunshine duration
on a monthly daily average basis to maximum and
minimum air temperatures and cloud cover fraction.
The estimated values, as well as the observed of relative
sunshine, were used to estimate the monthly mean daily
global radiation (MMDGR) by using a non-linear
equation. This method was compared by Ångström–
Prescott’s method that is considered a conventional
method in addition to Garg–Garg’s method (Garg and
Garg, 1982), which includes water vapor content in
conventional method. Statistical indicators, mean bias
error (MBE%) and root mean square error (RMSE%)
have been used to measure the accuracy of these
methods. These methods were analyzed and applied at
six stations in Egypt and the proposed method (PM) was
also tested at 32 stations from different sites in the
world. The data used to obtain the regression coeffi-
cients are not used in measuring the performance of all
used methods.
2. Data
Global radiation data at six stations (Barrani,
Matruh, Bahtim, Asiut, Kharga and Aswan) in Egypt
are recorded by the Eppley precision spectral pyran-
ometer (PSP). The accuracy of these pyranometers
corresponds to the first class according to the WMO
classification (WMO, 1990). The pyranometers are
calibrated against a reference pyranometer, which is
calibrated against a standard pyrheliometer. This
standard pyrheliometer is calibrated every five years at
the World Radiation Reference (WRR) in Davos,
Switzerland. The errors involved in the radiation
measurements are assumed to be around 3–4% for
global radiation (El-Metwally, 2004). The global radia-
tion and meteorological data (sunshine, air tempera-
tures, relative humidity and cloud cover) were obtained
from both radiation stations and meteorological offices
at the study sites covering the period from 1980 to 1999.
Table 1 shows the number of observation data used for
both regression processes and for measuring perfor-
mance of the existing methods, in addition to some
annual meteorological parameters.
Stations under study are distributed over Egypt from
the north to south as in Fig. 1. Coastal stations; Barrani
and Matruh are located 1–10 km south of the Medi-
terranean sea coast and the soil is generally sandy. But
Bahtim is now part of Cairo City, a city characterized by
its considerable air pollution produced by two big
neighboring industrial areas (Helwan and Shobra El-
Keima), an international airport, about 2 million vehi-
cles, and a population of about 15 million people).
Aswan is about 2 km away from high Dam Lake, named
‘Nasser’ and the ground is generally sandy but granite
rocks. Asiut lies near the Nile river but the soil is sandy.
Kharga is located in the western desert where the soil is
clay rocks.
3. The main features of Egypt climate
According to Diabaté et al. (2004), Egypt’s climate
can be divided approximately into three categories:
Mediterranean climate (Barrani, Matruh), semi-arid
warmer dry climate a broad summer dry season
(Bahtiem) and dry desert climate (Asiut, Kharga and
Aswan). The general climate of Egypt is subtropical and
the main features of the climate of Egypt from north to
south can be deduced from some annual climate data
(air temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover) in
Table 1. Air temperature decreases from south to north,
conversely relative humidity (RH%), cloud cover (Cm),
and precipitable water vapor (w) increase. Clear air is
the rule and dust-laden air is only the exception. In the
south, the continental tropical patterns manifest them-
selves more and more. In the extreme south the extra-
tropical region does not appear except in midwinter. The
rate of variation is greatest in the north and falls
markedly at two to three hundred kilometers to the
south so that southern-Egypt can almost be considered
as one climatic zone (Omran, 2000).
Atmospheric transparency changes clearly from one
season to another. In winter (December, January and
February), conditions of middle latitude disturbances
are prevalent where cloud types are normally opaque to
the direct beam and the turbidity of the atmosphere is
low. Spring (March, April and May) and autumn
(September, October and November) can be considered
as transitional seasons. They are characterized by
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342 1333

°N

W (Cm)
32
Topography of the places as well as, number of observations for regressions and performance to the models used and some climate parameters at the study stations in Egypt
Mediterranean Sea

2.8
2.8
2.5
2.1
1.9
1.5
Barrani
31 Matruh
tim
Bah

Cm (Octal)
30 Cairo Sinai

Nile Riv
29

3.6
3.5
3.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
28

er
RH (%)

Asiut

Ea
27
68.1
68.6
64.6
49.7
38.6
27.0

ra

s te
ha

rn
Sa

Re
Kharga

Sa
26

rn

dS
te

ha
TMin (1C)

ea
es

ra
W
25
15.9
15.9
13.6
14.5
17.2
19.8
Aswan
24
Some of climate parameters

er
ss
TAverage (1C)

23 Na
ke
La
22
19.4
20.3
19.9
21.9
25.0
27.0

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
°E
TMax. (1C)

Fig. 1. Study sites in Egypt.

22.8
23.8
26.9
30.3
32.6
33.1

small-scale depressions moving across the Great Sahara.

Performance no. (period)

The weather associated with these depressions is

generally hot, dry and dusty. Spring in particular is
33(1988–90,97–98)
50(1990–94,97–98)
51(1988–90,97–98)
51(1988–90,97–98)
51(1988–90,97–98)
52(1991–94,97–98)

dominated by frequent-chained depressions, the Kham-

sin phenomena in spring (El-Wakil et al., 2001). As a
result of the existence of sand (or dust) particles in the
atmospheric boundary layer, both horizontal and
vertical visibility will decrease, reaching sometimes less
288

than a few hundreds meters in case of sand storms (El-

Fandy, 1953). Occasionally, this is accompanied with
Number of observations

Regressions no. (period)

stratified cloud types that proceed from high transparent

cirrus type to medium opaque alto- and nimbo-stratus
107(1980,81,84–90)
72(1980,81,84–87)
70(1980,81,84–87)

clouds. However, autumn atmosphere is moderately

66(1981,84–89)

60(1981,84–87)
41(1984–87)

transparent on average, morning mists and low clouds

form but generally dissipate after sunrise and the
maximum values of precipitable water vapor can be
416

noticed clearly in this season (it will be described below).

In summer (June, July and August), high- and semi-
Elevation (m)

transparent clouds prevail, with a dirty sky most of the

time, due to a deep layer of fine dust particles associated
with continental tropical air, moreover, water vapor
content increases. The dust content falls markedly when
192
24
25
17
52
78

Mediterranean air arrives, associated with fine weather

Long.(E)

cumulus.
240
130
150
300
350
470

Fig. 2 shows monthly daily average variation of clear

251
271
311
311
301
321

index G/Go, (where G is the MMDGR on a horizontal

surface and Go the monthly mean daily extraterrestrial
Lat. (N)

radiation) relative sunshine duration S, and precipitable

380
200
090
120
270
580

water vapor w (cm). The latter is determined from both

311
311
301
271
251
231

monthly mean daily of air temperature and relative

humidity (see Eq. (5)) by Leckner (1978). All these
Stations

Matruh
Table 1

Barrani

Kharga
Bahtim

Aswan
Total
Asiut

parameters show monthly variation marked with broad

maximum from April till November covering spring,
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
1334 M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342

0.75 neighboring to industrial area (Cairo city) that has a

high atmospheric turbidity (Diabaté et al., 2003; Tadros
0.7
et al., 2002, El-Wakil et al., 2001). At dry climate
0.65 stations (Asiut, Kharga and Aswan), the variation of
0.6 Barrani
clear index is small, it ranges between 0.6 in winter and
G/Go

Matruh 0.7 in summer, those values are close to Diabaté et al.

0.55 Bahtim
(2004), ranging between 0.58 in winter and 0.67 in
Asiut
0.5 Kharga summer for the same site. On the other side, precipitable
Aswan
water vapor values are higher in the northern sites than
0.45
southern sites. Both clear index and relative sunshine
0.4 values to northern and southern sites are close to each
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
other in summer months, due to decreasing cloudiness,
Months while they are distant from each other in other months
0.95 as result of increasing cloudiness.
0.9
0.85
0.8
4. Methodology
0.75
Barrani
S

0.7 Matruh
4.1. Sunshine fraction method
Bahtim
0.65 Asiut
Kharga
0.6 Aswan Several empirical methods have been proposed to
0.55 estimate daily radiation from commonly observed
0.5 meteorological variables (e.g. Bristow and Campbell,
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1984; Thornton and Running, 1999; Castellvi, 2001;
Months Podest et al., 2004; El-Metwally, 2004). Similarly, to
4.5 estimate relative sunshine S, we focus on a simple non-
Barrani linear relationship based on the common availability of
4 Matruh
3.5 Bahtim monthly mean daily meteorological parameters: max-
Asiut
Kharga imum (Tmax.) and minimum (Tmin.) air temperatures
3 Aswan (1C) and cloud cover index (Cm/8) as follows:
w (cm)

2.5
2 S ¼ ADT B þ CðC m =8ÞD ,
1.5
1
0.5
0 equations based on the same meteorological parameters
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Months
Fig. 2. Monthly variation to clear index G/Go, relative
sunshine duration S, and precipitable water vapor w (cm) at
six sites.
summer and autumn seasons and minimum at winter
season. Clear index and relative sunshine values at
northern sites (Barrani, Matruh and Bahtiem) are lower
than southern sites, this is due to increasing cloud cover
values at northern sites, this is also clear in Table 1. At
Mediterranean coast stations (Barrani and Matruh),
clear index values are always greater than 0.5. It is
minimum in winter months (December and January)
and increases in a gentle way to peak at around 0.65 in
June, this result agrees with Diabaté et al. (2004).
Bahtiem station provides the same behavior and its
values are slightly lower than those sites, this is due to
(1)
where A, B, C, and D are site specific coefficients to be
determined. DT ¼ T max
T min is air temperature am-
plitude. In a previous study (El-Metwally, 2004), three
for the same sites were used to estimate global solar
radiation in case of unavailable sunshine duration data.
These methods showed a reasonable efficiency when
compared with the methods that depend on sunshine
data.
In fact, the estimation of total cloud cover amount by
real observations is subject to perspective errors.
Various studies to estimate global solar radiation from
observations of various cloud layer amounts and cloud
types have been executed (e.g. Davies and McKay, 1988;
Barker, 1992). Most of the models proposed in these
studies require detailed knowledge of local hourly sums
of direct and diffuse radiation for clear skies as well as
hourly cloud cover observations (Brinsfield et al., 1984).
Since this information is not available on the global
telecommunication system (GTS), meteorological data
from Egypt are used in this work. However, this method
is of general interest as it can be easily fitted to data from
other countries.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342 1335

4.2. Global radiation methods to sunshine duration as assumed in Ångström’s equa-

tion. This suggests that the sunshine–radiation relation-
Sunshine duration and global radiation values are ship is non-linear.
closely related. Therefore, the formulation originally The performance of the models examined here shall be
proposed by Ångström (1924) and later modified by judged by two statistical indicators (the mean bias error
Prescott (1940) can be used to estimate MMDGR when (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for
sunshine duration data are available. The historical calculating radiation by proposed and other methods
evolution of this approach and its application in many at the observed and estimated relative sunshine dura-
parts of the world were reviewed by Matı́nez-Lozano et tion:
al. (1984) and see also Suehrcke (2000). This modified hP 0 i
m ðGi
G i Þ
Ångström equation, referred to as the Ångström–Pres- i¼1 m
cott formula (Matı́nez-Lozano et al., 1984; Gueymard et MBE ¼ Pm Gi
, (7)
i¼1 m
al., 1995), is
hP 0 i1=2
G m ðG i
G i Þ2
¼ a þ bS, (2) i¼1 m
Go RMSE ¼ Pm Gi , (8)
i¼1 m
n
S¼ , (3) where Gi and Gi0 are the ith observed and estimated
N
values of global solar irradiance, respectively, while m is
where G is the monthly daily average of global radiation the number of observations taken into account. These
on a horizontal surface observed at sites, Go the monthly indicators are expressed as a percentage of average
daily average extraterrestrial radiation (the radiation measured radiation value.
received by a horizontal plane at the top of the
atmosphere), S is the monthly daily average of relative
sunshine, n the recorded sunshine duration (h), N the
5. Results and discussions
day length (h), and a and b are empirical coefficients,
estimated through a regression procedure. 5.1. Validation of sunshine method
Water vapor influences atmospheric transmissivity
through refraction effects (Iziomon and Mayer, 2002).
For estimating relative sunshine (S), monthly mean
Calculations by Tamm and Thormalla (1992), e.g., show daily maximum and minimum temperatures and cloud
an increase in water vapor from 1.0 to 4.0 cm, H2O in
cover index are used as input parameters to Eq. (1). The
the vertical column reduces daily mean of G by 5.6% for
regression parameters (A, B, C and D) to this equation
cloudless sky. Garg and Garg (1982) proposed a double have been obtained by using standard least squares
linear relation of the type for obtaining MMDGR:
method and their values are listed in Table 2. The data
G used to obtain regression coefficients were not used to
¼ ðg þ hS þ jwÞ, (4)
Go measure the performance of this method. The values
determined for the coefficients were physically consistent
w ¼ 0:0049RHðexpð26:23
5416=T k Þ=T k Þ, (5) at all sites except Bahtim. Higher correlation coefficients
where w is the atmospheric precipitable water vapor can be noticed for the terms of air temperature
per unit volume of air (cm) computed according to difference (air temperature amplitude) DT and cloud
Leckner (1978), g, h, and j are coefficients to be cover coefficients (A and C), indicating that the sunshine
determined and both RH and Tk are the monthly daily
mean to both humidity (in percentage) and air
temperature (in Kelvin.) Table 2
In this study, the interest is quantifying new simple Regression parameters A, B, C, and D together with SE to
sunshine method (Eq. (1)) for study sites
methods taking into consideration non-linear correla-
tion between clear index G/G0 and relative sunshine S Stations A B C D
instead of linear relation of Ångström–Prescott to
estimate MMDGR. A non-linear (exponential) equation Barrani 1.012
0.051
0.900 1.877
has been used as the following: Matruh 0.833 0.044
1.101 2.440
Bahtim 0.021 0.659 0.506
0.251
G Asiut 0.979
0.026
0.762 1.538
¼ cð1=sÞ , (6)
G0 Kharga 1.013
0.049
1.059 2.384
Aswan 1.533
0.200
1.348 2.581
where c is constant that can be determined by using
All stations 0.934
0.013
0.897 2.124
standard least squares method. Suehrcke (2000) showed
SE (0.018) (0.007) (0.056) (0.107)
that cloud transmittance was not linearly proportional
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
1336 M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342

duration is highly correlated with temperature ampli- Table 4

tude and cloud cover. However, power coefficient values Summary performance to sunshine method (Eq. (1)) at different
(B and D) are small. The values of coefficients differ sky conditions (clear sky, partially cloudy and overcast sky) and
relative sunshine duration values observed (S(obs.)) and
from site to site, however, the coefficient values at
estimated (S(est.))
Bahtim are completely different from others. Negative
sign to coefficient C is due to the inverse relation Sky condition No. obs. S (obs.) S (est.) MBE% RMSE%
between cloud cover and sunshine duration. To give an
idea about how scattered the residuals are around the Clear sky 97 0.897 0.894
0.3 3.4
average, standard error (SE) has been used. Lower Par. cloudy 170 0.805 0.793
1.5 6.0
values of standard error at pooled data (all stations) can Overcast 21 0.617 0.559
9.4 13.1
be noticed as shown in Table 2.
Method’s prediction is compared to the measured
sunshine fraction for each month by using different This method is tested again at different sky conditions
dataset at six local sites. Coefficient sets for each station, for pooled data (clear sky, partially cloudy and overcast)
as shown in Table 2, were used to measure the as in Table 4, that shows that error values are also low
performance of this method by using statistical errors particularly at clear sky and increase gradually with the
(MBE%, RMSE%). The results are shown in Table 3. increase of cloudiness. This is due to great effects of
MBE% values are positive/negative, which indicated cloudiness on increasing the error, particularly at
that the prediction of this method is over/underestima- overcast conditions. Finally, from previous study of
tion and both MBE% and RMSE% values are very low performance of this method, it is acceptable and can be
except for coastal sites particularly Barrani station. For used in case of unavailability of sunshine duration data.
example RMSE% values vary from 14.5% at the coastal Predicted values of S resulting from this method will be
site in the north (Barrani) to 2.4% at dry site in the used with the observed values to measure the perfor-
south (Kharga), this means that the errors increase with mance of global radiation methods (see the next
increasing cloudiness. Increasing the error at the coastal section).
sites is a result of strong relation between sunshine and
cloud cover where cloud cover amount is decreasing
gradually from the north to the south as in Table 1. This 5.2. Validation of the global radiation models
is because of the invasion of extratropical systems in
winter from the north passing over the Mediterranean, Non-linear Eq. (6) (PM), linear Eq. (2) (Ångström–
which causes increased cloudiness in northern Egypt, Prescott method) and double linear Eq. (4) (Garg–Garg
gradually decreasing to the south. Duration of sunshine method) were all fitted to local data to obtain the
is higher in the south than the north, this can be noticed regression coefficients again by using standard least
from average values of S listed in Table 3. On the other squares method. The regression analysis has been
hand, higher error, at coastal sites were also noticed in a calculated from monthly daily average to both clear
previous study of the same sites (El-Metwally, 2004) index (G/G0) and relative sunshine (S). The values of
when estimating MMDGR from the same meteorologi- MMDGR (G) and relative sunshine (S) were obtained
cal parameters. Generally, the error values are low from daily measurements covering a period 9–15 years.
in case of pooled data (MBE% ¼
0.4% and All the results of the analysis are summarized in Table 5.
RMSE% ¼ 2.3%). Also, the dataset used in regression analysis are not used
to measure the accuracy of these methods. The
coefficient a to Ångström–Prescott method is about 0.2
and coefficient b ranges between 0.5 and 0.6 at all sites
Table 3 except for Kharga and Aswan, where a ¼ 0:5 and
Summary performance to sunshine method (Eq. (1)) at local b ¼ 0:2. For pooled data a and b are 0.2 and 0.5,
study sites and relative sunshine duration values observed (S respectively, and their standard errors are very small.
(obs.)) and estimated (S (est.)) Values of both a and b deduced in this study are close to
Stations S (obs.) S (est.) MBE% RMSE% many studies (e.g. Prescott, 1940; Iziomon and Mayer,
2002; Akpabio and Etuk, 2003). On the other hand,
Barrani 0.776 0.673
13.3 14.5 both regression coefficients (a and b) and their standard
Matruh 0.743 0.726
1.9 5.9 error values to Ångström–Prescott’s method are ap-
Bahtim 0.776 0.775
0.2 4.3 proximately close to the coefficients (g and h) to
Asiut 0.872 0.859
1.2 2.7 Garg–Garg’s method as in Table 5. Values of the last
Kharga 0.865 0.862
0.7 2.4 coefficient (j) in Eq. (5) are very small, this indicates a
Aswan 0.883 0.896
0.6 3.4
weakness of the correlation between G/Go and water
All stations 0.822 0.810
0.4 2.3
vapor content (w).
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342 1337

Table 5 (Ångström–Prescott and Garg–Garg) at all sites apart

Regression coefficients and their standard errors (SE) values to
the used methods at the study sites
Stations Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg PM
a b G h j c
Barrani 0.197 0.563 0.280 0.358 0.0260 0.700
Matruh 0.151 0.640 0.175 0.567 0.0110 0.711
Bahtim 0.165 0.606 0.209 0.498 0.0150 0.701
Asiut 0.196 0.543 0.197 0.543 0.0001 0.704
Kharga 0.536 0.180 0.554 0.122 0.0160 0.728
Aswan 0.524 0.197 0.559 0.218
0.0370 0.728
All stations 0.228 0.527 0.219 0.526 0.004 0.713
SE (0.015) (0.018) (0.015) (0.018) (0.002) (0.002)
The regression coefficient c to the PM (Eq. (6)) at the
study sites listed in Table 5 is approximately around 0.7
and its SE is very small. The difference between values of
constant c and its variation from site to site is not
significant. Variation of constant c by 0.05 above or
below value of 0.7 will increase or decrease the radiation
calculated by this method. The simplicity of the PM is
that it has primarily one input parameter and one
determined constant (0.7) although this method is
empirical relationship and does not have physical bases.
At clear sky (S ¼ 1), G=G0 in Eq. (6) is equal to the
constant c. In some cases this constant is not correct
particularly with high elevation such as mountains.
Generally, the high values of relative sunshine (S40:8)
are due to less cloud reflection, therefore transparency is
high. Conversely, for low values of sunshine (So0:2),
the nature and thickness of cloud become decisive
factors, as they are associated with the local climate
(coastal, mountains, etc.) (WMO, 1981).
Predicted values of MMDGR for each method are
compared by measured MMDGR for each month by
using different dataset at six local sites. These methods
used both observed and the values of relative sunshine
duration S estimated by Eq. (1) to compute MMDGR.
The calculated and measured values on the horizontal
surface were compared to find the best one that will fit
the measured global solar radiation. Statistical indica-
tors MBE% and RMSE% are used to quantify the
mean error and the dispersion of error resulting from the
use of the models listed in Table 6. MMDGR values
presented in this table are strongly correlated with
cloudiness, showing low global radiation at the northern
sites (o20 MJ m
2 day
1) and a high one in southern
sites (420 MJ m
2 day
1), this is due the great effect of
cloudiness on MMDGR.
By using observed relative sunshine data S as input to
the existing methods, the results of PM with c ¼ 0:7
proved to be more accurate than both classical methods
from Barrani and Kharaga as in Table 6(a). However,
the results with c ¼ 0:65 or 0.75 are the worst. The
lowest errors can be noticed at all sites for c ¼ 0:7 of the
PM, even at pooled data. To measure the asymmetry of
the methods, MBE% values for the PM show that
predicted values are reasonably estimated by PM with
c ¼ 0:7, but underestimated by PM with c ¼ 0:65 and
overestimated by the model with c ¼ 0:75 and the
classical methods. Besides, MBE% values for PM are
lower than those of classical methods. Its values at
pooled data, for example, indicate that PM is less
biasing for most sites than other methods. MBE%
values at pooled data for instance are around 0.1%.
However, they are around 3% to other methods. Higher
error can be noticed at Bahtim due to its neighboring to
urban city (Cairo), which has a high level of air pollution
(El-Wakil et al., 2001; Tadros et al., 2002). Cairo is one
of the largest cities in Africa, it is the seat of industries
and the traffic of vehicles is large. The semi-arid climate
of industrial areas (such as Cairo) differs from
Mediterranean shoreline, Matruh and Barrani (Diabaté
et al., 2003; Diabaté et al., 2004). The results indicated
that PM is reasonably more accurate than other
methods for all sites except for Kharga. RMSE% values
at pooled data are 6% at PM (c ¼ 0:7) while they are 6.7
and 6.8% at both Ångström–Prescott and Garg–Garg
methods, respectively. Results of error to both Ång-
ström–Prescott and Garg–Garg methods are approxi-
mately the same. Therefore, with addition of water
vapor term j to Ångström–Prescott relation, accuracy
did not considerably improve for the study sites, this
agrees with Iziomon and Mayer (2002) at different sites
in Germany.
On the other side, when we used the estimated values
of relative sunshine data (S) estimated by Eq. (1) as
input to the existing methods as in Table 6(b), the results
demonstrated that the PM (at c ¼ 0:7) is the best at most
sites. The differences of RMSE% values between Table
6(a) and Table 6(b) to all methods are approximately
less than 1% at all sites except for Barrani, this is due to
lack of accuracy of Eq. (1) at that site. This result
provides trust to use Eq. (1) to estimate S in case of its
unavailability.
Fig. 3 shows radiation residuals (estimated minus
observed values) as a function of estimated MMDGR
for pooled data. The spread of residuals is slightly wider
at lower and intermediate radiation values to the PM (at
c ¼ 0:7) as shown in Fig. 3a , however, Ångström–
Prescott is slightly better at higher radiation as shown in
Fig. 3b. Estimates of the PM produce well-distributed
residual, centered around zero at low radiation. The
overestimation can be noticed at low and medium solar
radiation values (Go20 MJ m
2 day
1) particularly at
Ångström–Prescott method, however, underestimation
can be shown at higher radiation to the PM. Generally
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1338 M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342

Table 6
Summary performance of the used methods at six sites in Egypt to estimate global radiation using both relative sunshine duration
observed (a) and estimated (b) values

Stations G PM Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg

C ¼ 0:65 c ¼ 0:70 c ¼ 0:75

(a)MBE%
Barrani 20.2
9.6
0.6 8.5 0.8
0.2
Matruh 19.4
8.8 0.6 10.3 3.7 3.8
Bahtim 19.7
6.2 3.1 12.6 4.5 4.7
Asiut 21.1
5.1 3.3 11.8 4.5 4.6
Kharga 22.5 10.6
2.6 5.6 1.9 2.2
Aswan 22.3
9.0
1.0 7.0 3.6 3.1
All stations 20.9
1.4 0.1 1.7 3.2 3.3
RMSE%
Barrani 12.3 6.2 9.8 6.3 6.0
Matruh 11.3 5.8 11.3 7.5 7.4
Bahtim 10.3 8.0 14.4 8.7 8.9
Asiut 7.3 5.1 12.1 6.0 6.1
Kharga 11.8 4.7 6.2 3.8 3.9
Aswan 11.0 6.0 9.2 7.0 6.8
All stations 10.7 6.0 10.7 6.7 6.8
(b)MBE%
Barrani
15.8
6.4 3.4
7.2
5.3
Matruh
10.0
0.5 9.3 1.8 2.1
Bahtim
6.0 3.3 12.8 4.8 4.9
Asiut
5.5 2.9 11.4 3.7 3.8
Kharga
10.8
2.8 5.4 1.8 2.1
Aswan
8.6
0.7 7.4 3.8 3.3
All stations
1.5 0.1 1.7 2.5 2.5

RMSE%
Barrani 18.4 9.9 6.8 10.8 8.6
Matruh 12.6 6.3 10.7 7.7 7.5
Bahtim 10.2 8.1 14.6 9.0 9.2
Asiut 7.7 5.0 11.9 5.6 5.6
Kharga 12.1 5.0 6.1 3.8 3.9
Aswan 10.9 6.5 9.9 7.5 7.4
All stations 11.6 6.7 10.7 7.4 7.3

Bold values indicate the smaller error.

the PM seems better than Ångström–Prescott method,
as a result of the low biasing as mentioned previously.
It was important to measure the validation of the
existing methods at different sky conditions (Clear sky,
partially cloudy and overcast), the results are listed in
Table 7. All methods show that the more the cloudiness,
the more the error. Naturally, the error is low at clear
sky and high at overcast sky. It appears that solar
radiation is strongly attenuated under overcast condi-
tions, this may result from the presence of additional
cloud layers above overcast layer which are undetected
by surface-based observations (DeGaetano et al., 1995).
Yang et al. (2001) showed that the cloudy weather
condition is one main contributor to the greater errors.
MBE% values at the PM with c ¼ 0:7 is less biasing
than others and its value ranged between –0.8% and 3%
to the PM while they are about 2.4–3.5% to the other
methods. Also, RMSE% values showed that the PM is
the best in clear sky and partially cloudy sky conditions
except at overcast sky. Generally, the error values
increase gradually with the increase of cloud cover, the
reasons were mentioned above.
Table 8 shows the seasonal performance of all
methods (the PM used c ¼ 0:7). RMSE% values are
high in both winter and autumn and relatively high at
spring season, however they are low in summer. In
winter and autumn most days are cloudy due to
Mediterranean depressions passing in winter and exten-
sion of Sudan monsoon trough in autumn, however, in
spring it is due to passing Khamsin depressions, all these
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342 1339

Residual (MJ.m-2.day-1)
4

0
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
-2

-4

-6

-8
(a) G-Observed (MJ.m-2.day-1)

6
Residual (MJ.m-2.day-1)

0
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
-2

-4

-6

-8
(b) G-Observed (MJ.m-2.day-1)

Fig. 3. Scattergram of predicted and measured MMDGR values for Egypt sites by using: (a) PM and (b) Ångström–Prescott

Table 7
Summary performance under sky conditions (clear sky, partially cloudy and overcast sky) at pooled data

Sky condition G MBE% RMSE%

PM c ¼ 0:7 Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg PM c ¼ 0:7 Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg

Clear sky 23.7
0.8 3.5 3.5 5.2 6.3 6.3

Par. cloudy 20.2 1.1 3.1 3.1 6.2 7.5 7.7
Overcast 13.9 3.0 2.4 2.4 9.0 8.7 8.4

produce low daily fluxes (see Section 3). On the other
hand, low error in summer is due to the fact that skies in
this season are principally clear and the variation in
cloud amounts occurring in early morning are —in
general—irrelevant. Generally, error values to the PM
are relatively lower than other methods in all seasons,
except for spring. The PM shows better performance in
winter, summer and autumn (low and high radiation),
whereas, other methods do in spring (medium radia-
tion).
Performance of the PM has been tested against 32
worldwide sites obtained from the World Radiation
Data Center (WRDC). Dataset included 1421 observa-
tions, are used to study the effect of climate and latitudes
on the validation of the PM with c ¼ 0:7. Because of
unavailability of meteorological data, the PM has been
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1340 M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342

tested only at observed values to both sunshine duration and RMSE% results are detailed in Table 9, which is
and MMDGR. For each station, the differences between sorted according to decreasing latitude rather than
each prediction and the measured values are compiled to alphabetic order. It appears from Table 9 that RMSE%
give MBE% and RMSE%. For brevity, both MBE% has no significant variation with latitude except at some

Table 8
Summary performance for different seasons at pooled data

Seasons G MBE% RMSE%

PM c ¼ 0.7 Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg PM c ¼ 0.7 Ångström–Prescott Garg–Garg

Winter 13.8 5.6 7.6 7.1 8.8 10.0 9.7

Spring 23.6
2.3
1.0
1.2 5.8 5.6 5.6
Summer 26.9
1.3 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.6 4.9
Autumn 18.9 2.8 6.1 6.3 7.4 8.9 9.1

Table 9
Estimated and observed values (MJ m
2 day
1) to the PM at c equal 0.7 respectively, statistical errors (MBE% and RMSE %) to
measure the validation of these methods in decreasing order of latitude (3rd column)

Countries Stations Latitude Elevation (m) Period m G MBE% RMSE%

0
Russia Moscow 551 45 156 1991–93 25 11.1 0.2 13.8
Canada Edmonton 531 330 766 1985–87 31 12.2
2.1 6.7
UK London 511 310 23 1991–93 31 9.0
2.7 11.8
Croatia Krizevci 461 020 155 1969–71 36 12.2
5.3 19.0
Italy Roma 411 480 129 1976–93 107 15.2
6.5 13.6
China Beijing 391 560 55 1989–93 54 13.4 13.1 17.6
Spain Caceres 391 280 405 1983–92 29 15.9 1.4 2.8
USA Columbia 381 490 271 1977–80 28 13.6 5.2 7.3
Greece Athens 381 030 136 1977–80 38 14.6 8.1 12.4
Greece Sikiwna 371 590 150 1986–88 31 16.0 6.2 10.2
Tunisia sidi Bouzid 361 520 127 1990–91,93 36 16.9
0.2 3.6
Turkey Antalya 361 520 50 1983–85 26 16.0 5.5 7.3
Pakistan Islamabad 331 370 507 1990–93 21 14.1
0.4 9.8
Israel Bet Dagan 321 000 30 1975–77 19 18.6 1.7 3.8
Alger Bechar 311 370 773 1972–74 36 20.9
4.8 6.0
Japan Chichijima 271 050 3 1971–80 71 14.9 2.9 7.1
India Jodhpur 261 180 217 1988–93 16 19.0
6.3 7.2
Oman Buraimi 241 140 299 1988–90 33 19.3 11.9 16.5
Niger Agadez 161 580 501 1978–80 16 21.7
0.3 5.3
Mali Tombouctou 161 430 263 1980 7 23.5
5.1 8.5
Senegal Dakar 141 44 27 1988–90 18 20.3 1.4 2.9
Mali Kayes 141 260 47 1980 8 22.8
2.8 5.0
Niger Niamey 131 290 223 1978–80 19 19.9 7.3 8.7
Djibouti Djibouti 111 330 13 1973–79 62 21.3
0.1 6.8
Venezuela Acarigua 91 330 226 1994–95 18 10.8 18.2 46.1
Kenya Narok
11 080 1890 1969–93 197 20.2 0.6 6.5
Angola Dundo
71 240 775 1970–72 30 16.6 9.6 13.9
Mozambique Beira
191 480 10 1990–93 36 20.6 0.2 5.0
Namibia Windhoek
221 340 1728 1971–74 48 23.1
10.5 9.8
Chile Antofagasta
231 26 140 1994–95 17 21.1
5.5 7.8
Australia Adelaide Arpt
341 560 6 1983–92 110 18.0
6.2 8.3
New Zealand Ohakea
401 120 50 1969–91 167 14.1
5.3 8.7
All stations 1421 16.9 0.0 10.1

m: is the number of the observation in above period (3rd column).

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M. El-Metwally / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 1331–1342
stations, which at high latitude tend to increase. This
may have resulted from increasing cloudiness there. The
increase in both MBE% and RMSE% values at a few
sites (Athens, Buraimi, Acarigua and Dundo) may be
attributed to various causes, such as aerosol, humidity,
elevation in addition to experimental error. From a
climatic view, Athens is a coastal site therefore both
cloudiness and fog frequently occurred while both
Acarigua and Dundo are tropical sites. This asymmetry
results from thunderstorm or monsoon activity which is
normally more pronounced after noon (Gueymard,
1999). However, Buraimi is a group of small oases,
and is considered a desert site (lies north west of Oman
on the border with Saudi Arabia that is rich in oil), both
dust haze and rising sand are more frequent in addition
to petroleum pollution at this site. Generally, when
applying this method on all station data, we can
conclude that RMSE% is around 10.1%.
It is better visualized when considering scattergram of
predicted against observed radiation. For instance, a
scattergram for PM at all dataset used (32 worldwide
sites in addition to six local sites) is shown in Fig. 4. PM
reflects better performance; most points are placed along
the 1:1 line particularly at low and medium global
radiation. Finally, PM is performing well at most of
latitudes and climates. On the whole, PM can be used to
estimate MMDGR, it is noted that the equation, unlike
the Ångström–Prescott equation, does not require any
empirical constants and is also very simple.
6. Conclusions
A non-linear equation has been proposed to estimate
relative sunshine S based on some of meteorological
parameters (maximum and minimum air temperature in
addition to cloud cover fraction) at six sites in Egypt.
From studying the performance of this method, it was
acceptable and can be used in case of unavailability of
sunshine duration data. Also, a non-linear equation (Eq.
(6)) has been proposed to estimate monthly daily
average global radiation (MMDGR) by using both
observed values of relative sunshine duration and those
estimated by Eq. (1). Proposed method (PM) is
compared with linear and double linear equations
(Eqs. (2) and (4)) to get the best one fits the data. These
methods were applied at the same sites and the data used
in regression analysis is not used in measuring the
performance. Statistical indicators (MBE% and
RMSE%) have been used to measure the performance
of all used methods. PM shows relatively high accuracy,
given the very limited input it requires and it does not
require empirical constant, as Ångström–Prescott does
whose coefficients highly depend on location and
climate. The simplicity of the PM hinges primarily on
one input parameter and on one determined constant
1341
G-Estimated (MJ.m-2.day-1)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
G-Observed (MJ.m-2.day-1)
Fig. 4. Relation between estimated and observed to MMDGR
at 32 worldwide sites in addition to six local sites by using PM
(c ¼ 0.7).
(0.7). The results indicated that PM (at c ¼ 0:7) is more
accurate than other methods and both RMSE% and
MBE% values are round 0.1% and 6%, respectively
while they are around 3% and 7% at both Ångström–
Prescott and Garg–Garg methods to all local data.
Error values indicated that the results of the PM with
c ¼ 0:7 is better than classical methods at medium and
high radiation (15–30 MJ m
2day
1. Also, error analysis
emphasized that the error is lower in PM than other
methods for all seasons except for spring. Finally, PM is
tested over 32 worldwide sites and it performs well at
most latitudes and climates, RMSE is about 10.1% for
all worldwide sites. On the whole, this method can be
used to estimate MMDGR.
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