Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey

Future Scenarios on the International Political Economy

Act. 2.2 Structural analysis

Students
María Regina Meza Sánchez A01253535
Evelyn Karola Luna Arteaga A00830346
Paola Méndez Sordia A01198185
Reynaldo Lozano Mendiola A00832091

Teacher

Rocio Vanessa Farias

Verónica Parra Obando

April 2 2023
 I. Introduction

Structural analysis is an essential tool used to identify and understand the key variables that
influence a particular issue or topic. In this essay, we will conduct a structural analysis of
water security in Bajio Occidental region to identify the variables that are likely to impact its
future. To achieve this, we will first outline the variables that make up the topic of water
security and provide their definitions. We will then create a plane of potential indirect
influences and dependencies between the variables. Using this plane, we will identify the key
variables that are most likely to affect the future of water security. Finally, we will consult
with experts in the field of water security to get their views on the issue and use their insights
to validate our analysis. Through this process, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the
factors that will shape the future of water security and contribute to the development of
effective strategies to address it.

II. The variables the problem is made of or topic of interest from an NGO
and each variable’s definition

1. Provision of water: aquifers, dams and basins (Aquif): The aquifer is the set of
rocks that allow the permeability of water and can accumulate it in its pores or cracks.
This retained water is known as groundwater (Ingeoexpert, 2018). On the other hand,
the basins "are natural units of the land, defined by the existence of a division of the
waters due to the conformation of the relief" (CONAGUA, 2023). Last, dams are "an
artificial retaining wall in a river, which serves to regulate the outflow of a natural
watercourse and form a reserve that feeds a hydroelectric power station" (Enel Green
Power, N.d).
2. Weather events (Weather): Weather event means flood, washouts, landslides,
mudslides, earthquakes, storms, hurricanes and tropical storms or threat of such
(Lawinsider, N.d).
3. Resource management (resmanag): Water management or water resources
management is the activity of planning, developing, distributing and directing the
optimal use of water resources.
4. Water availability (Avail): Describes the availability of water for irrigation or
consumption per person, per year in a region.
5. Water quality (Qual): Water quality refers to the suitability of water for different
uses according to its physical, chemical, biological, and organoleptic (Svalbaroi, N.d)
6. Water use efficiency (eff): water use efficiency can be defined in many ways:
economical, conveyance, or field application. In any area, it includes any measure that
reduces the amount of water used per unit of any activity, and that favors the
maintenance or improvement of water quality.
7. Hydric reserves (Reserves): Means land in the local government area which is land
owned or leased by the local government or trust land which the local government has
resolved to set apart for water supply purposes.
8. Water reuse and treatment (Re&treat): Water reuse reclaims water from a variety
of sources then treats and reuses it for beneficial purposes such as agriculture and
irrigation, potable water supplies, groundwater replenishment, industrial processes,
and environmental restoration (EPA, 2023).
9. Surface (capacity) (Surface): is the amount of water furnished under a standard unit
head. Water storage in dams.
10. Water vulnerability (Vulner): In regions with high vulnerability to water, aquifers
are being overexploited and are close to depletion. If the same practices in water use
continue, the estimated balances for 2036 show very high deficits, putting food
production at risk (Gobierno de Guanajuato, 2018).
11. Water security in Bajio Occidental (Secur): Capacity of the region, to have water in
quantity and quality acceptable for its survival and the carrying out different
recreational activities. Ensures the economic stability of a society taking into account
climate changes and environmental pollution produced by human beings.
12. Water Infrastructure (infra): Water infrastructure refers to a broad term for systems
of water supply, treatment, storage, water resource management, flood prevention and
hydropower (IGI GLOBAL, n.d).
13. Hydroelectric plants infraestructure (Hydro): Facilities that transform the
hydraulic energy of a river, either natural or artificial, into renewable electrical energy
(CONAGUA, 2011)
14. Thermoelectrics infrastructure (Thermo): Use the collected energy to provide
power for roadside infrastructure such as lighting, signal control, communication, etc
(CONAGUA, 2011).
15. Water demand (Demand): Water demand is defined as the volume of water
requested by users to satisfy their needs.
16. Water management (Watmanage): Is the activity of planning, developing,
distributing and managing the optimum use of water resources.
17. Water contamination (Watcont): Water pollution is the contamination of water
sources by substances which make the water unusable for drinking, cooking, cleaning,
swimming, and other activities. Pollutants include chemicals, trash, bacteria, and
parasites (Harvard School of Public Health, N.d)
18. Agroindustry (Agro): The part of the economy relating to farming, for example,
farmers, manufacturers of farm equipment, and importers and exporters of farm
products. Its crop lands have been assigned to other economic activities, such as
agro-industry and industrial parks.
19. Quality of soils and cultivation methods (Qualtsoil): In some specific
municipalities of the Bajío region, intensive use of chemicals adds further pressure to
soil and water quality (Tagle Zamora et al., 2020).
20. Drought (Drought): A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for
the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.
21. Resource use (Deforestation/over exploitation of natural resources) (Useofres):
appropriation and use of resources, ecosystems and naturally occurring materials,
such as soil, wood, water, and minerals (General Multilingual Environmental
Thesaurus, n.d).
22. Water Public supply (Supply): is water supplied by all economic entities engaged in
collecting, purifying and distributing water (Eurostat, n.d).
23. Inter-State cooperation (Intercoop): States cooperate with each other by means of
interstate compacts and administrative agreements, but also involves the interaction of
States within the framework of coordinating their policies in accordance with the goal
that unites them.(Intechopen, 2019).
24. Regulatory framework (frame): Regulatory frameworks are legal mechanisms that
exist on national and international levels. They can be mandatory and coercive
(national laws and regulations, contractual obligations) or voluntary (integrity pacts,
codes of conduct, arms control agreements) (SSI, n.d).
25. Incumbent party's priorities (Polprior): Parties in government prioritize issues that
voters trust them to handle more than other parties, sometimes their own interests
come into play.
26. Government investment (Govinvest): Public investment on providing public
services and other developments.
27. Electricity Reforms (reform): With the Electricity Reform of President Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, the Government of Mexico aims to modernize 14
hydroelectric plants in the country, so that the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE)
doubles its production of clean energy.
28. Government Institutions (Govinstit): Means government ministries, departments,
companies, agencies, authorities, training institutions, research institutions and local
government authorities
29. Political cooperation (Coop): Political cooperation broadly denotes the federal, state
and local levels of government working together.
30. Corruption (Corrupt): The abuse of entrusted power for private gain. Corruption
erodes trust, weakens democracy, hampers economic development (Transparency
International, 2023).
31. Misfunctioning of institutions (Misinst): To fail to work or operate correctly.
According to Arrojo-Agudo (2005) "institutional systems for water administration are
still made up of many institutions that are characterized by a lack of coordination in
their activities”.
32. Government officials (Officials): An individual who holds an elective public office
in the executive or legislative branch of the Government of the Country (Cornell
University, N.d).
33. Waste reduction programs (Waste): Practice of preventing waste by decreasing or
eliminating the amount of materials initially used. Is also referred to as pollution
prevention, source reduction and pre-recycling and results in a reduction in the
amount and/or toxicity of waste generated (Department and Environmental
Protection, N.d).
34. Non Governmental organizations (NGOs): is a group that functions independently
of any government. It is usually non-profit.
35. Corporatization (Corp): Corporatization is the process of transformation and
transfer of state assets, government agencies, public organizations or municipal
bodies into corporations (Tagle Zamora et al., 2020).
36. State regulations (statereg): State-level normativity that influences water use.
37. Perceptions of water's municipalization (Percep): Perception of the process of
negotiated transfer of water from rural communities that is carried out through the
transfer of management and infrastructure to the municipality (Hernández González
and Tagle Zamora, 2020).
38. Economic interdependence (Ecointer): is a condition that exists when two or more
persons, organizations, regions or countries exchange goods and services with the
purpose of filling each other multiple needs (Myaccountingcourse, N.d).
39. Economic development (EDevp): Economic Development is programs, policies or
activities that seek to improve the economic well-being and quality of life for a
community.
40. Geographical region (GeoReg): A geographic region is an area of ​land that has
common characteristics and can be defined by natural or artificial characteristics
(Lifepersona, N.d):
41. Marginalized communities (Commun): Groups and communities that experience
discrimination and exclusion (social, political and economic) because of unequal
power (NCCDH, S.f).
42. Work Culture (Cul): Water culture is a new ethical approach is promoted that
requires distinguishing the various functions of water and values ​at stake, concept
developed by Arrojo Agudo (2005).
43. Urbanization (Urb): the process by which large numbers of people become
permanently concentrated in relatively small areas, forming cities.
44. Population Growth (Popgrowth): refers to the increase in the number of individuals
in a population in a particular year (IGI Global, N.d).
45. Inequality (Ineq): This is talking about how the people inside the region do not have
the same access to resources than other people inside the region.
46. Poverty (Pov): refers to the state or condition in which people or communities lack
the financial resources and essentials for a minimum standard of living.
47. Food Security (Food): The state of having reliable access to a sufficient quantity of
affordable, nutritious food.
48. Traditional agriculture (Tradagr): Can be defined as a primitive style of farming
that involves the intensive use of indigenous knowledge, traditional tools, natural
resources, organic fertilizer and cultural beliefs of the farmers (Secretaría de
Desarrollo Agroalimentario y Rural, 2018).
49. Industrial investments (Indinv): means investments and/or expenses made by the
industries. The Bajio Region present the highest industrial investments
50. New Technology (Newtech): The future will require technological innovation,
improved thinking about the exploitation of water supplies and better incorporation
of new technologies into current and future infrastructure.
51. Technological institutions (Techinsti): Institutions dedicated to solving social
problems with the use of technology, For example the Mexican Institute of Water
Technology was founded in 1986 as a link from the technological and scientific
sphere with the federal government. Thai to research and innovate solutions for the
water security crisis in the region. (Vargas y Mollard, 2005).
52. Ecotechniques (Ecotech): Eco-techniques are practical socio-technical efforts
through which attempts are made to improve the capacities for the use and production
of natural resources used by society (Zamora and Azamar, 2021).
53. Environmental equilibrium (Equilb): refers to a balanced community of living
organisms and non-living components in a particular environment.
54. Sustainability (Sus): “the integration of environmental health, social equity and
economic vitality in order to create thriving, healthy, and diverse communities for
this generation and generations to come (UCLA, N.d).
55. Social Structures (Sstru): Social structures can be both institutional and relational.
In an institutional setting, behavior is influenced by norms, cultural factors and
formalities. Relational social structures include any sort of relationship between
people, regardless of the system they belong to.(Interaction, N.d).
56. Resilient communities (Res): Community resilience is the sustained ability of
communities to withstand, adapt to, and recover from adversity.
57. Green Economy (GEconomy): A green community is one that implements
environmentally friendly practices to meet the needs of its members.
58. Globalization (Glob): The growing interdependence of the world’s economies,
cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade in goods and services,
technology, and flows of investment, people, and information (PIIE, 2018).
59. SDG (SDG):The Sustainable Development Goals are a universal call to action to end
poverty, protect the planet and improve the lives and prospects of everyone,
everywhere.
60. Demographic transformation (DemoTra): Is expressed in phenomena such as the
growth of the population in certain regions of the planet and the aging of the pyramid
demographic, and social changes, such as the massive development of the middle
classes
61. Pollution (Poll):The presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance
which has harmful or poisonous effects. some places have plenty of water, but
 pollution has made it unsafe to use. For example, untreated sewage and waste water
from factories cause problems.
62. Climate change (Climatetech): Long-term change in the average weather patterns
that have come to define Earth's local, regional and global climates (NASA, 2014).
63. Democratic governance in the new context of social, economic and technological
(Democratic): It manifests itself when there is a state of equilibrium in the exercise of
political power derived from the solution of social demands and the ability of
governments to attend to them in an effective, stable and legitimate manner.
64. Water politics (Watpol): describes the interactions between governments,
non-government organizations, researchers, and other actors that determines how and
whether water management issues are addressed (Global water forum, N.d).
65. World Bank (WordBan): The World bank is the central global bank for economic
development for most countries in the world to maintain the global economic order.
The World Bank Group is one of the world’s largest sources of funding and
knowledge for developing countries. Its five institutions share a commitment to
reducing poverty, increasing shared prosperity, and promoting sustainable
development.” (World Bank, 2023). The Water Security Diagnostic Initiative seeks to
make best use of the World Bank’s technical experience, instruments, and financial
resources to produce studies that influence senior policy makers beyond line
ministries, help create the narrative on “Water Writ Large”.
66. Social, cultural and workplace shifts (Shifts): The number of Gen Z-ers and
millennials in the workplace is on the rise, and baby boomers are retiring. And with
this changing workforce come changing expectations and priorities; as an example, 65
percent of people want to work for an organization “with a powerful social
conscience". (Forbes, 2021).
67. Monetary Funds (Monfund): The use of financial mechanisms which strives to
solve problems through the use of liquidity and direct investment
68. Water security in the global area (Secur): water security is "the capacity of a
population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality
water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development,
for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and
for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability." (UN, 2013).
 69. Tourism (Tour):Tourism is a social, cultural and economic phenomenon which
entails the movement of people to countries or places outside their usual environment
for personal or business/professional purposes.(Unwto, 2008).
70. Hydro-Diplomacy (Diplomacy): Is a critical tool to ensure that shared water
resources are managed efficiently, sustainably and equitably, balancing interests
related to national sovereignty while strengthening regional cooperation with
countries sharing common resources (IUCN 2012).

III. Plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies between variables

Figure 1. Plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies, analyzed per group of variables

(Camelo y Treviño, 2014).

As shown above, in this matrix of potential indirect influences that is generated in MICMAC,
the map is made of four quadrants, in which the x-axis measures the degree of dependence
and the y-axis measures influence. So, basically, the way each variable interacts with the
other (whether it’s influent or dependent or both) will determine how high and to the left or
right the variable is inside the plane.

One can observe, however, that the regulatory variables don’t fit neatly in a specific quadrant,
they are instead found near the center of gravity of the system (though to be accurate, they are
at the center-left of the matrix, encompassing parts of all quadrants, but mostly the upper-left,
or second, and the lower-left, or third, quadrants). These are the variables that are going to
have an impact on the key variables, in order to reach the objectives and generate the result
variables.

Going on order, the first quadrant (the quadrant in the upper right side) is split into two parts
by a diagonal line. The part of the quadrant that’s located on the superior part of the diagonal
line contains the variables with the highest influence and dependence, as well as the most
unstable variables, according to Jacques Arcade et al. (2003), “since action on them has
consequences on the other variables in case certain conditions on other influent variables are
met”. Below the diagonal line, however, lay the target variables. As opposed to the key
variables, these variables have relatively more dependence than influence.

The second quadrant (the quadrant in the upper left side) are the influent variables, the ones
that have a high degree of influence but low degree of dependence, so you can’t have an
effect on them with the other variables. These are most often environment variables and are
beyond one’s control.

Meanwhile, the third quadrant of the plane is found at the lower-left corner and contains
another type of variables. The variables of the third quadrant are called autonomous variables
because, like the environment variables, have a low dependence on other variables, but they
don’t even have a high degree of influence in the system in the first place. So, they are
practically outside the system or they are variables that had relevance in the past but not
anymore in the present.

The fourth quadrant is where the result variables are. Those are the variables that have low
degree of influence but are highly dependent on the other variables of the system.
In short, the regulatory variables are the ones that the actor has control over, they are the ones
that are going to impact the key variables and the target variables (strategic variables), which
in turn will affect the results variables. Then, on the left side there are the environment
variable (upper quadrant) and the autonomous variables (lower quadrant).

Next, the plane of potential indirect influences - dependencies generated by MICMAC is

shown, based on the previous data entries (in the double input chart) that graded the
relationship between different variables.
Figure 2. Plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies found on MICMAC.

Before we dive deep into each type of variable in the matrix of potential indirect
influences-dependencies, let’s review the matrix of direct influences/dependencies.
Figure 3. Plane of direct influences-dependencies found on MICMAC.

If we make a comparison between the Plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies

found on MICMAC and the Plane of the direct influences-dependencies we can make the
following observations.
Variables that move up or down
● In the Plane of direct influences-dependencies (Figure 3) variable 22 “Aquif”
(Provision of water: aquifers, dams and basins) is on the quadrant for the results
variable (fourth quadrant). However, in the plane of potential indirect
influences-dependencies (Figure 2) the variable is on the first quadrant (much higher),
meaning that because in the potential indirect influences-dependencies matrix the
potential impact of variables is considered, “Aquif” is a more influent variable.
○ Other variables whose level of influence is higher in the Plane of potential
indirect influences (compared to the Plane of direct influences) are variable 5
(water availability), 21, (“popgr” or population growth), 23 (weather) and
variable 50 (“newtech” or new technologies). This is also (slightly) the case
for variable 30 (water vulnerability), variable 27 (water reuse and treatment)
variable 28 (water efficiency), among others.
● In contrast, a variable whose influence is higher in the Plane of direct
influences-dependencies than in the Plane of potential indirect
influences-dependencies is reserves (29).
● Variables that stay roughly at the same level of influence are water quality (25) and
water security (31).

Variables that move right or left

● In the Plane of direct influences-dependencies (Figure 3) variable 54 “sus” (or
Sustainability) is on the second quadrant, possibly in the space of a regulatory
variable. However, in the plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies (Figure
2) the variable is on the first quadrant, within the space of the target variables. This
means that the variable sustainability is more “dependent” on Plane of potential
indirect influences-dependencies than on the Plane of direct influences. Another
variable that grows more dependent in the “Potential indirect plane” (Figure 2) is
agroindustry, but in both planes it remains in the “regulatory variables” area; this
happens again with the variable 39 (“perceptions of water's municipalization”).
● Similarly, even though variable 8 (“tradagr” or “traditional agriculture”) is on the
third quadrant in the Plane of direct influences-dependencies (Figure 3) and, in the
Plane of potential indirect influences-dependencies it’s in the third quadrant (that is,
more to the left, which is, less dependent), in both cases it’s still within the
“regulatory variables” area.
 IV. Identification of key variables

To describe the story of our system, it is precise to begin with the environmental variables
(found on the first quadrant) over which we have little control.

Amongst the most important of these variables are population growth (21), climate change
(60), the geographical region (42) and the legal framework (33). This makes sense because
according to our investigation and our interview with expert Daniel Tagle Zamora (Zamora,
personal communication, 2023), el Bajío Region has been growing largely and very quickly
in population (León, Guanajuato, for instance, is the third most populated municipality in the
country), the Bajío region abides by the creation of “Consejos de Cuenca” established by the
1992 National Water Law (Ley de Aguas Nacionales) and participates in the work of
managing three Consejos de Cuenca, Lerma-Chapala, Río Santiago and Río Pánuco
(Gobierno de Guanajuato, 2022), and El Bajío’s mild climate has been affected by climate
change in the last years. These are external factors that we do not think we’d be able to
change much.

Similarly, the most important autonomous variables are the process of corporatization (20),
quality of soil (10), and political priorities (14). These all refer to past situations: in 1992, the
municipal government of León, Guanajuato created SAPAL, which is the water and
sanitation utility (SAPAL), Sistema del Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de León with a World
Bank loan, which is presided by a board of trustees, that includes many people from the
private sector, which has led to the water utility to take a more “managerial” or businesslike
approach. This blurring of the lines between the water public service and the private sector is
referred to, in this case, as corporatization. The other situation of the past is the degradation
of the quality of soil throughout the years due to to agricultural chemicals, as well as the
PRI’s (a political party) expulsion from León in 1998, which was partially because of
insatisfaction with how water management was handled (Tagle Zamora et al., 2020).
However, political parties no longer have that influence to affect water security much,
because PAN has been elected all elections since and because León’s “business” culture is
permeated across all candidates from León. (Tagle Zamora, personal communication, 2023).

The regulatory variables (found in the center-left of the system) are the following: the
misfunctioning of institutions (18), traditional agriculture (8), agroindustry (9), new
technologies (50), ecotechniques (52), technological institutions (51), perceptions of water's
municipalization (39), and political cooperation (17). The most important of these are three:
the malfunctioning of institutions (the lack of common objectives between the CONAGUA,
México’s national authority, and several state and municipal utilities), the lack of political
cooperation between different level of governments (the MORENA federal government
excluding PAN-affiliated Guanajuato from the El Zapotillo dam), and the exhaustion of
natural resources caused by agriculture, both traditional and export-oriented agriculture
(Vargas and Mollard, 2005).
It’s important to remember that, between the plane of direct and the plane of potential indirect
relations, some regulatory variables moved either to the left or to the right, they still
remained in the “regulatory variables/center-left area”. This helps to prove that they are,
indeed, moderately dependent and influent.

Meanwhile, all regulatory variables are going to impact the key variables such as water
availability (5), or the population’s ability to access water resources, as well as water
vulnerability (30), best described the resilience of the hydric system at the face of adverse
changes. Other key variables include water use efficiency (28) and aquifers (22). (All these
variables had a higher degree of influence on the Plane of potential indirect influences that in
the Plane of direct influences, signifying their possible long-term impact).
The target variables (which are still on quadrant 1, but below the diagonal line, ergo, they are
“strategic”), on the other hand, include reserves (29), water reuse and treatment (27) water
quality (25), sustainability (54), and water security (31). This reminds us that, although the
variable “sustainability” was situated in the regulatory variables area in the Plane of direct
relations, it moved farther to the right in the Plane of potential indirect relations, meaning it
was too unstable to be considered a “regulatory” variable, which is why it’s better suited to be
a strategic variable.

More specifically, this means that the inability of several institutions and levels of
governments to decide on concrete objectives on how to orient water supply service in el
Bajío region and the toll that agriculture has taken on aquifer has the potential of leading to a
progressive loss of water, loss of water quality and overall loss of opportunity of sustainable,
long-term management of natural resources in the region.

In turn, the strategic variables will have an effect, too. The result variables are the culture of
treatment of water (44), water equilibrium (53), economic development (41), water
management (6) and water supply (12). The direction that all these variables -- whether
positive or negative -- will take are an indirect consequence of changing the regulatory
variables.
 V. List of consulted experts

Name: Jorge Arriaga

Position: International consultant in water and environmental matters
Professional profile: International expert in environmental matters with an emphasis on water
resources management. Currently executive coordinator of the Water Network of the
Universidad Autónoma de México and the Regional Center for Water Security under the
auspices of UNESCO. In both institutions, he leads the research, teaching and dissemination
of culture strategies. He is also a university professor specializing in virtual learning
environments.
Contact information:https://mx.linkedin.com/in/arriagaalberik

Name: Daniel Tagle Zamora.

Position: Adjunct Professor in Universidad de Guanajuato.
Professional profile: Daniel Tagle Zamora has a doctorate in Economics Science, currently
works at the Departamento de Estudios Sociales at Universidad of Guanajuato. Daniel does
research in Ecological Economics, water management and political ecology. He is part of
Academic Group CAC 179-UG Water, Energy and Climate Change.
Contact information: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel-Zamora-2,
datagle@ugto.mx

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