Professional Documents
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Historical Share Price Performance Price Target (May 24) Current Share Price
Downside risks to our investment DNB Markets investment case and Upside risks to our investment case
case how we differ from consensus
◼ A steady drop in energy prices, leading ◼ Elevated gas prices have illustrated the ◼ Strong demand recovery and growth of
to ongoing margin pressure throughout need for fast-track and flexible FLNG gas/LNG as non-intermittent energy
the value chain. solutions, in our view placing Golar sources in the green transition.
LNG in pole position with its track
◼ Pandemic- or recession-related ◼ Higher energy prices should boost
record on Hilli.
disruption depressing energy markets margin potential for FLNG projects,
and reducing demand for LNG-related ◼ We are now 5% below Bloomberg which also have upside potential from
business. consensus adj. EBITDA for 2023e, 9% higher commodity prices.
above for 2024e and 4% below for
◼ Competing liquefaction solutions ◼ A constructive climate for project FIDs
2025e.
capturing market share. backed by strong counterparties willing
to enter long-term SPAs.
◼ Investment reluctance among oil & gas
stakeholders limiting growth
opportunities.
Source: DNB Markets Source: DNB Markets Source: DNB Markets
500.0
-25.9 70.4
400.0
300.0
-434.5 219.4
200.0
100.0
656.0 209.4 473.3
0.0
T/C income
2023e
T/C income
2024e
Other (incl. gains)
Opex
2022
2
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
ESG overview
Sustainability assessment
Positive Negative
Conclusions ◼ According to the IEA’s Sustainable Development ◼ As LNG is still a fossil fuel and is potentially
Scenario (aligned to the Paris Agreement), gas is perceived as an intermediary solution in the energy
the only fossil fuel set to see growth beyond 2025 mix, this may slow the build-out of LNG
and even increase until 2030. infrastructure, as countries instead accelerate the
build-out of renewable energy.
◼ Gas is hierarchically above coal and oil in terms of
the energy transition ‘pecking order’, thus a relative ◼ The LNG value chain being expensive, increased
positive. protectionism globally and the desire to reduce
energy import dependence may slow LNG import
◼ A record number of new FIDs in new liquefaction
growth, as renewable energy is produced locally.
projects, securing longer-term growth prospects.
◼ The industry could face increased attention on
methane emissions as a more potent GHG.
Actions being taken ◼ Continuous drive to renew the fleet and deploy on ◼ There have been three designs for newbuilds in the
by company long-term contracts to mitigate residual risk. past 20 years, with more design changes likely,
reducing the useful life of vessels on water today.
Long-term ◼ LNG made up 6% of gas consumption in 2000, 11% ◼ LNG still being a fossil fuel and perceived as a
in 2018 and we forecast 25% by 2040, if the share ‘transitional’ fuel may slow the build-out of LNG
of LNG in the total gas mix continues to grow at the infrastructure if regions and countries accelerate the
same pace as in the past c20 years. build-out of renewable energy.
◼ According to the IEA’s Sustainable Development ◼ The combination of the LNG value chain being
Scenario (aligned with the Paris Agreement), gas is expensive, increased protectionism globally, and
the only fossil fuel set to see growth beyond 2025 the desire to reduce dependence on energy imports
and even increase until 2030. The IEA says gas may slow the growth in LNG imports, as renewable
consumption could grow by 7% between 2018 and energy is usually produced locally.
2030, but would then need to fall by 3% between
◼ There is a large residual risk in an LNG carrier built
2030 and 2040 for global warming to be capped at
to last 40 years, as several newbuilds need to be
<2 degrees versus the pre-industrial level.
ordered to meet increased gas demand in the next
◼ From an emissions perspective, gas continues to be 10 years, before demand is set to decline (if meeting
the most promising fossil fuel. Thus, in the absence the ambitions of the Paris Accord). 25% of the LNG
of significant power-storage solutions, gas is set to fleet has been ordered in the past two years, and the
be a key swing energy carrier, supplying energy to past 10 years have seen 9% annual ordering, which
grids when renewables cannot deliver. shows the importance of having the latest ship
design in lowering transportation costs when the
LNG value chain is expensive.
Source: DNB Markets
3
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Sustainability assessment
Risk Company’s risk mitigation
Transition risks
Policy and legal ◼ The shipping industry faces numerous policy and ◼ Actively pursuing a modern, fuel-efficient fleet to
legal risks, most of which have been initiated by the remain attractive among charterers, as well as
IMO, a UN body. IMO 2020, which regulates the active participation in trade associations
sulphur content in shipping fuel, does not affect the representing the industry’s interests at a regulatory
LNG space. The next is likely to be CO2 reduction. level, and working for viable solutions.
Technology ◼ Golar infrastructure and ships become ◼ Keeping a well-maintained fleet, close dialogue with
technologically obsolete through competitors yards and class agencies (which are in charge of
improving performance or through Golar investing in certifying the vessels) to stay on top of the latest
uncompetitive technologies. This could potentially technology, and sound relationships with major
lead to an increase in cost through failed clients, allowing for de-risked investments in new
investments. technology by securing the vessels on long-term
contracts.
Market ◼ Potential decline in demand for fossil fuels to adhere ◼ Potentially turning the operational profile towards
to the Paris Agreement would remove a de-risking short-term market exposure to deploy
considerable part of shipping demand. While coal vessels on long-term contracts, while long-term
would be below oil and gas in the pecking order, trends in a commoditised business, such as
LNG demand could be distorted by disruption from shipping, are difficult to mitigate.
renewables.
Reputation ◼ Increased focus on the sustainable recycling of ◼ Strong corporate governance including routines for
ships, in essence providing safe working conditions employee welfare and sale/purchase of vessels.
for scrapyard workers and protecting the local
biosphere, as well as general seafarer welfare, pose
considerable risks to shipowners’ reputations and
investor appetite. Reputational risk from being in a
carbon-intensive industry is a constant.
Source: DNB Markets
Sustainability assessment
Opportunities Company’s utilisation of opportunity
Resource efficiency ◼ Requirements for vessel efficiency and ratings (e.g. ◼ Besides owning a modern fleet, investing in fuel-
RightShips’ Emissions Rating) among major efficiency measures and technology in order to
charterers, and increasing costs for higher-quality achieve strong ratings and be a preferred provider
fuels and new propulsion systems. of transportation services.
Source: DNB Markets
4
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Estimate changes
Trimming our estimates through 2023–2025
We have updated our model to incorporate the Q1 actuals and updated energy price estimates.
Our new oil and gas price estimates, which are based on the most recent forward curves, have
resulted in a USD4.1m decrease to Golar’s pro rata EBITDA on the oil-lined derivative for
2023e, USD6.6m for 2024e and USD5.6m for 2025e. For TTF-linked exposure, we have cut
USD3.9m in pro rata EBITDA for 2023e, USD10.1m for 2024e and USD6.5m for 2025e. Overall,
we have cut our adj. EBITDA for 2023e by 7%, 2024e by 4% and 2025e by 3%. We are now
5% below Bloomberg consensus for 2023e, 9% above for 2024e and 4% below for 2025e.
477
477
474
474
473
421
408
500
-1%
350
346
330
324
400
278
271
267
264
258
248
USDm
-2%
300
Revenue
Revenue
adj. EBITDA
-5%
-6%
-7%
2023e 2024e 2025e
-7%
-8%
New Old 2023e 2024e 2025e
Changes to adj. net income forecasts DNB Markets versus consensus on 2023–2025e adj. EBITDA
0% 500 473 10%
350 324
Estimate changes (%)
-2% 4%
300
-2% 2%
250
-3% -2% 0%
200
-3% -2%
150
-4% -4% -4%
100
-4% -5%
-4% 50 -6%
-5% 0 -8%
-5% 2023e 2024e 2025e
-5%
2023e 2024e 2025e DNB Markets Bloomberg consensus DNB Markets relative to cons.
Source: DNB Markets (forecasts) Source: DNB Markets (forecasts), Bloomberg (consensus)
5
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Q1 review
Quarterly DPS reinstated
Golar LNG reported Q1 revenues of USD74.0m (15% above consensus (Bloomberg) of
USD64.3m, 11% above our estimate of USD66.4m), adjusted EBITDA of USD84.1m (13%
below consensus of USD97.2m, 14% below our estimate of USD97.6m), adjusted net income
of USD83.9m (20% below consensus of USD104.9m, 8% above our estimate of USD77.6m).
The adjusted EBITDA miss included USD11m net expenses relating to its development
agreement to assist Snam with FSRU Tundra, which would largely close the gap to consensus
on a normalised basis.
USD0.25 DPS for 4.5% yield
Following its agreement with bondholders, the company has reinstated quarterly dividends at
USD0.25/share in Q1 "set at a sustainable level that allows for potential for growth after Gimi
has reached COD." This represents a 4.5% run-rate yield, and the company has also authorised
a USD150m share buyback programme to "opportunistically repurchase shares from time to
time for cash".
Close of Hilli acquisition and refinancing agreement announced…
The Hilli acquisition was closed during the quarter and the company has received credit
approval to improve the terms of the existing Hilli debt facility, reducing the debt service cost
from USD126m in 2023 to USD93m and extending maturity from 2028 to 2033, increasing
flexibility for recontracting Hilli after the current contract expires in July 2026. Also, several
promising projects for recontracting Hilli with more attractive economics than the current
contract are now being discussed.
…as Gimi sail-away postponed from H1 to Q3 without an effect on first gas
The FLNG Gimi is now 94% technically complete, but the departure date has been postponed
from H1 to Q3 without affecting first gas from the Tortue project.
NNPC MOU and Gandria sale confirmed
The MOU with NNPC was confirmed, with duration of five years and an ambition to explore the
potential for multiple future FLNG projects. The reported sale of Gandria (USD15m) is expected
to be completed in H2 and the option to purchase the Fuji has been exercised with delivery
expected early 2024.
6
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Q1 review
Key highlights Q1 2023 Deviation (%) Deviation, Abs Q1 2022 DNBe
USDm Actual DNB Cons. DNB Cons. DNB Cons. Actual 2023e
Operating revenues 74.0 66.4 64.3 11% 15% 7.6 9.7 79.7 247.9
EBITDA -30.9 97.6 97.2 <-100% <-100% -128.4 -128.0 261.5 350.1
EBITDA adj. 84.1 97.6 97.2 -14% -13% -13.4 -13.0 93.2 350.1
EBIT -43.4 85.1 88.4 <-100% <-100% -128.6 -131.9 246.0 300.4
Pre-tax profit -93.8 77.6 104.9 <-100% <-100% -171.4 -198.7 620.7 270.6
Net income -92.6 77.6 104.9 <-100% <-100% -170.1 -197.5 410.0 270.6
Adj. Net income 83.9 77.6 104.9 8% -20% 6.3 -21.0 68.7 270.6
Net income to non-controlling interest -9.3 -7.3 -64.8 -26.9
Net income attributable to Golar LNG Ltd -101.9 70.2 96.6 <-100% <-100% -172.1 -198.4 345.2 243.7
Number of shares - Basic 107.4 107.2 0.2 108.1 107.2
EPS - Basic -0.95 0.66 0.73 <-100% <-100% -1.60 -1.68 3.19 2.27
DPS 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00
Source: DNB Markets (forecasts), company (historical data), Bloomberg (consensus)
7
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Valuation
BUY and USD35 target price reiterated
We base our target price on 1.0x (unchanged) our forward SOTP valuation of USD35/share
(35), including the value of two potential FLNG projects. We calculate a current SOTP of
USD24.1/share (24.3), which implies that the stock is trading 11% below what we view as the
underlying value of its current project portfolio and assets.
For future FLNG projects, we have applied an 80% discount (i.e. upsizing or added production
of another 200ktpa) to the full upsizing of Hilli T3 and T4, as we continue to believe that Perenco
and SNH should be motivated to maximise production in the current markets, but that
considerable volume appears increasingly unlikely. We have also included the value of two
potential FLNG projects, in line with that announced by BP, as Golar LNG has signalled possible
project announcements near-term.
Current SOTP/share by business division Forward SOTP including risked growth potential for FLNG
30 40
35 -2
25 5
30 5
20 8.3
USD/share
USD/share
25 3
15 0.7 37
35
24.1 20
10 24
15.2 15
5
10
Current Hilli FLNG FLNG Fwd Risk Risked
0 SOTP T3&4 Project Project SOTP adj. fwd
FLNG Shipping Holdings Current SOTP #1 #2 SOTP
20
0.7 0.7 0.4
8.9 0.1 15.2
Holdings
15
Shipping
10 FLNG
6.2
0
Hilli Gimi Gandria Total Arctic Total Avenir Cash etc Total
FLNG Shipping Holdings SOTP
8
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
EBIT 159 386 321 300 404 334 -141 -18 -13
EBIT adj 274 386 321 300 404 334 -26 -18 -13
Associated companies 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Net interest -11 -56 -53 -30 -58 -56 19 2 3
Other financial items -61 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net financial items -72 -56 -53 -30 -58 -56 -42 2 3
PBT 88 330 267 271 346 278 -182 -16 -10
Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -27 -59 -53 -27 -61 -54 -1 2 1
Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 61 271 214 244 285 223 -183 -14 -9
Adjustments to net profit 158 -13 -6 -25 -18 -9 183 5 2
Net profit adj 218 257 208 218 267 214 0 -9 -6
Avg. number of shares (m) 107 107 107 107 107 107 0 0 0
Capex -200 -116 0 -314 -89 0 114 -27 0
OpFCF 125 357 408 36 402 421 89 -44 -12
Working capital 569 756 893 880 1,246 1,499 -311 -490 -606
NIBD adj 189 45 -196 69 -296 -652 120 341 457
Source: DNB Markets
9
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Quarterly numbers
(USDm) Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023e Q3 2023e Q4 2023e Q1 2024e Q2 2024e
Revenues 115 80 67 69 59 74 65 61 58 119 119
Cost of sales -26 -22 -19 -18 -19 -19 -17 -17 -16 -24 -24
Gross profit 89 58 48 50 40 55 47 44 42 95 95
Depreciation -26 -16 -13 -12 -12 -13 -13 -13 -13 -22 -22
Impairment of PPE 0 0 -76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITA 100 246 193 85 2 -43 75 64 64 97 96
Associated companies 2 -1 4 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0
Net interest -13 -8 -4 -1 5 11 -7 -7 -7 -13 -14
Other financial items -42 382 -33 78 51 -61 0 0 0 0 0
Net financial items -56 375 -37 77 56 -50 -7 -7 -7 -13 -14
PBT 46 620 160 173 64 -93 67 57 57 84 82
Taxes -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -38 -65 -57 -34 4 -9 -7 -6 -6 -15 -15
Discontinued operations 0 -209 126 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 7 345 230 141 71 -102 61 51 51 69 67
Adjustments to net profit 8 -347 -208 -90 27 172 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3
Net profit adj 15 -2 22 51 98 70 56 47 46 66 64
Dividend paid -9 -11 -14 -14 -16 -12 -27 -27 -27 -27 -27
Avg. number of shares (m) 108 108 108 108 107 107 107 107 107 107 107
Gross margin 77.5 72.6 72.0 73.1 67.6 74.6 73.4 71.7 72.1 80.0 80.1
EBITDA adj margin 81.3 116.9 150.1 144.3 174.4 113.8 135.3 124.6 132.3 100.0 99.0
Depreciation/revenues -23.0 -19.5 -19.5 -18.1 -21.0 -17.0 -19.5 -20.5 -21.8 -18.3 -18.3
EBIT adj margin 58.3 97.4 130.6 126.1 153.4 96.8 115.8 104.2 110.5 81.6 80.7
Net profit margin 38.8 514.5 426.2 255.6 113.4 nm 104.4 92.2 97.9 70.5 68.6
Source: Company (historical figures), DNB Markets (estimates)
10
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
11
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Annual P&L
(USDm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e
Revenues 82 144 431 449 439 452 275 258 477 477
Cost of sales -103 -117 -203 -160 -122 -131 -78 -69 -95 -95
Gross profit -20 26 228 289 317 321 196 188 382 382
Operating expenses -46 -50 -73 -57 -44 -38 -46 -54 -34 -34
EBITDA -63 -24 208 216 234 1,065 656 209 473 408
Depreciation -73 -77 -94 -147 -108 -106 -54 -50 -87 -87
Impairment of PPE -2 0 0 -8 0 0 -76 0 0 0
EBITA -137 -101 114 61 126 959 526 159 386 321
EBIT -137 -101 114 61 126 959 526 159 386 321
Taxes 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0
Effective tax rate (%) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -18 -34 -63 -101 -106 -147 -151 -27 -59 -53
Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 -77 0 0 0
Net profit -217 -180 -231 -212 -272 413 788 61 271 214
Adjustments to net profit 23 -36 -21 67 90 -413 -618 158 -13 -6
Net profit adj -194 -215 -253 -145 -182 0 170 218 257 208
Dividend paid -54 -20 -43 -65 -26 -28 -55 -92 -107 -107
Avg. number of shares 94 101 101 101 99 109 108 107 107 107
Gross margin nm 18.3 52.9 64.3 72.3 71.0 71.5 73.0 80.0 80.0
EBITDA margin nm nm 48.3 48.1 53.3 235.8 238.8 81.3 99.2 85.6
EBITDA adj margin nm nm 35.9 51.6 62.8 68.1 144.3 125.9 99.2 85.6
Depreciation/revenues -88.6 -53.3 -21.8 -32.8 -24.6 -23.5 -19.5 -19.5 -18.3 -18.3
EBIT margin nm nm 26.6 13.5 28.6 212.3 191.6 61.8 80.9 67.2
EBIT adj margin -169.3 -70.1 14.2 18.7 38.2 44.6 124.8 106.4 80.9 67.2
PBT margin nm nm nm nm nm 124.2 369.8 34.2 69.1 56.0
Net profit margin nm nm nm nm nm 123.8 341.9 34.2 69.1 56.0
Source: Company (historical figures), DNB Markets (estimates)
12
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
EBITA -137 -101 114 61 126 959 526 159 386 321
Gains and losses -4 0 -53 16 39 -782 -506 -76 -126 -60
Other EBITA adjustments 2 0 0 8 3 25 322 191 126 60
EBITA adj -139 -101 61 84 167 202 343 274 386 321
EBIT -137 -101 114 61 126 959 526 159 386 321
Gains and losses -4 0 -53 16 39 -782 -506 -76 -126 -60
Other EBIT adjustments 2 0 0 8 3 25 322 191 126 60
EBIT adj -139 -101 61 84 167 202 343 274 386 321
Net profit -217 -180 -231 -212 -272 413 788 61 271 214
Gains and losses -4 0 -53 16 39 -782 -506 -76 -126 -60
Other EBIT adjustments 2 0 0 8 3 25 322 191 126 60
Tax adjustments 8 -32 -18 -13 -6
Other adjustments 25 -36 32 44 48 337 -402 61 0 0
Net profit adj -194 -215 -253 -145 -182 0 170 218 257 208
13
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Cash flow
(USDm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e
Net profit -217 -180 -231 -212 -272 413 788 61 271 214
Depreciation and amortisation 73 77 94 147 108 106 54 50 87 87
Other non-cash adjustments 37 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in net working capital 31 102 191 58 204 -435 -772 141 -22 0
Cash flow from operations (CFO) -40 47 117 107 146 230 220 261 337 302
Capital expenditure -160 -254 -202 -420 -313 -214 -267 -200 -116 0
Acquisitions/Investments 15 -250 -1 80 19 19 752 117 0 0
Divestments 113 70 0 75 190 120 569 26 31 46
Cash flow from investing (CFI) -32 -434 -202 -264 -103 -76 1,054 -58 -85 46
Free cash flow (FCF) -72 -387 -86 -158 43 154 1,274 203 252 348
Total cash flow (CFO+CFI+CFF) 119 -9 92 -264 -94 141 611 23 166 137
FCFF calculation
Free cash flow -72 -387 -86 -158 43 154 1,274 203 252 348
Less: net interest 48 53 92 81 68 56 8 11 56 53
Less: acquisitions -15 250 1 -80 -19 -19 -752 -117 0 0
Less: divestments -113 -70 0 -75 -190 -120 -569 -26 -31 -46
Growth (%)
CFO 43.4 218.8 147.5 -8.7 36.8 57.8 -4.2 18.3 29.1 -10.3
CFI 94.2 -1246.2 53.3 -30.6 61.0 26.7 1494.7 -105.5 -47.7 154.1
FCF 88.5 -437.8 77.8 -83.9 127.0 261.9 725.1 -84.1 23.8 38.3
CFF -64.6 97.7 -53.0 -159.7 -29.5 90.1 -4813.2 72.8 52.4 -145.4
FCFF nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Source: Company (historical figures), DNB Markets (estimates)
14
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Balance sheet
(USDm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e
Assets 4,263 4,764 4,807 4,662 4,340 4,948 4,307 4,150 4,399 4,402
Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trade receivables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 36 36
Other receivables 290 36 100 38 42 580 358 150 236 236
Current financial assets 212 222 332 142 126 77 50 19 19 19
Cash and cash equivalents 224 215 218 222 128 269 879 902 1,068 1,205
Current assets 726 473 650 402 295 926 1,286 1,107 1,358 1,496
Property, plant and equipment 2,615 3,255 3,291 3,595 3,641 3,756 2,289 2,429 2,427 2,293
Other intangible assets 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other tangible assets 41 150 139 80 28 142 512 450 450 450
Investments in associates 641 703 572 509 313 52 104 47 47 47
Non-current financial assets 232 176 154 77 63 73 116 116 116 116
Non-current assets 3,538 4,291 4,157 4,261 4,045 4,023 3,021 3,043 3,040 2,907
Total assets 4,263 4,764 4,807 4,662 4,340 4,948 4,307 4,150 4,399 4,402
Equity and liabilities 4,263 4,764 4,807 4,662 4,340 4,948 4,307 4,150 4,399 4,402
Total equity to the parent 1,841 1,715 1,745 1,498 1,293 1,729 2,500 2,231 2,395 2,502
Minority interests 45 81 81 264 338 447 400 437 437 437
Total equity 1,886 1,796 1,826 1,763 1,631 2,177 2,900 2,668 2,832 2,939
Trade payables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 36 36
Other payables and accruals 314 247 270 197 195 257 69 158 222 222
Short-term debt 690 1,385 730 1,071 1,008 1,051 373 344 344 344
Total current liabilities 1,004 1,632 1,000 1,268 1,203 1,308 442 539 602 602
Long-term debt 1,321 1,026 1,835 1,489 1,368 1,359 845 859 881 778
Other non-current liabilities 52 310 146 143 138 105 120 84 84 84
Total non-current liabilities 1,373 1,336 1,981 1,632 1,506 1,464 965 943 964 861
Total liabilities 2,377 2,968 2,981 2,900 2,709 2,772 1,407 1,482 1,567 1,464
Total equity and liabilities 4,263 4,764 4,807 4,662 4,340 4,948 4,307 4,150 4,399 4,402
Key metrics
Net interest bearing debt 1,554 2,020 2,193 2,261 2,185 2,068 226 189 45 -196
Source: Company (historical figures), DNB Markets (estimates)
15
DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Valuation ratios
(USDm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e
Enterprise value
Share price (USD) 22.94 29.81 21.76 14.22 9.64 12.39 22.79 21.43 21.43 21.43
Number of shares (m) 93.94 100.9 101.1 101.1 98.63 108.9 107.8 107.4 107.4 107.4
Market capitalisation 2,155 3,009 2,200 1,438 951 1,349 2,456 2,302 2,302 2,302
Net interest bearing debt 1,554 2,020 2,193 2,261 2,185 2,068 226 189 45 -196
Adjustments to NIBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net interest bearing debt adj 1,554 2,020 2,193 2,261 2,185 2,068 226 189 45 -196
EV 3,709 5,029 4,393 3,699 3,136 3,417 2,682 2,490 2,347 2,106
EV adj 3,709 5,029 4,393 3,699 3,136 3,417 2,682 2,490 2,347 2,106
Valuation
EPS -2.33 -1.78 -2.29 -2.10 -2.79 3.78 7.30 0.56 2.52 2.00
EPS adj -2.07 -2.14 -2.50 -1.59 -2.29 1.61 1.58 2.03 2.40 1.94
DPS 0.20 0.20 0.48 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
P/E -9.8 -16.7 -9.5 -6.8 -3.5 3.3 3.1 38.1 8.5 10.7
P/E adj -11.1 -13.9 -8.7 -9.0 -4.2 7.7 14.4 10.5 8.9 11.1
P/B 1.17 1.75 1.26 0.96 0.74 0.78 0.98 1.03 0.96 0.92
Average ROE -11.5% -9.8% -12.8% -11.8% -16.0% 21.7% 31.0% 2.2% 9.9% 7.4%
Earnings yield adj -9.0% -7.2% -11.5% -11.2% -23.8% 13.0% 6.9% 9.5% 11.2% 9.0%
Dividend yield 0.9% 0.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
EV/SALES 45.04 35.04 10.20 8.24 7.15 7.56 9.77 9.66 4.92 4.42
EV/SALES adj 45.04 35.04 10.20 8.24 7.15 7.56 9.77 9.66 4.92 4.42
EV/EBITDA -59.3 -207.6 21.1 17.1 13.4 3.2 4.1 11.9 5.0 5.2
EV/EBITDA adj -55.8 -209.2 28.4 16.0 11.4 11.1 6.8 7.7 5.0 5.2
EV/EBIT -27.0 -49.9 38.4 61.0 25.0 3.6 5.1 15.7 6.1 6.6
EV/EBIT adj -26.6 -50.0 72.0 44.0 18.7 16.9 7.8 9.1 6.1 6.6
EV/NOPLAT -27.0 -49.9 38.4 61.0 25.0 3.6 5.1 15.7 6.1 6.6
EV/OpFCF (taxed) -16.4 -18.1 -93.0 -19.6 -84.2 36.7 20.8 20.0 6.6 5.2
Source: Company (historical figures), DNB Markets (estimates)
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DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
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DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Important Information
Company: Golar LNG
Coverage by Analyst: Jørgen Lian
Date: 31/05/2023
This report has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA. DNB Bank ASA is a part of the DNB Group. This report is based on information obtained from
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Recommendation structure
DNB Markets recommendations are based on absolute performance:
Buy - indicates an expected return greater than 10% within 12 months
Hold - indicates an expected return between 0 and 10% within 12 months
Sell - indicates an expected negative return within 12 months
Price targets are based on a combination of several valuation methods such as discounted cash flow, pricing based on earnings multiples, multiple on book value, net asset
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(dnb.no/disclaimer/MAR) for an overview of all recommendations from DNB Markets over the past 12 months, as per Market Abuse Regulations (MAR).
Price, Rating, and Price Target History Golar LNG (GLNG US) as of 30-5-23
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
29-8-22 28-9-22 29-10-22 28-11-22 29-12-22 28-1-23 28-2-23 30-3-23 30-4-23 30-5-23
Conflict of interest
DNB Markets has provided investment services and/or ancillary services to the company and received compensation for it during the past 12 months.
Readers should assume that DNB Markets may currently or may in the coming three months and beyond be providing or seeking
to provide confidential investment banking services or other services to the company, and may receive compensation for these services.
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DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Legal statement
This Report is a research report within the meaning of Regulation (EU) NO 596/2014 on market abuse (Market Abuse Regulation), and has been prepared in accordance
with rules set out in relevant industry standards issued by The Norwegian Securities Dealers Association. This Report has been prepared as general information and is
therefore not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies, and does not constitute personal investment advice as defined the
Norwegian securities trading act (Norwegian verdipapirhandelloven).
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In Brazil
The analyst or any close associates do not hold nor do they have any direct/indirect involvement in the acquisition, sale, or intermediation of the securities discussed
herein.
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DNB Markets | Golar LNG
31 May 2023
Any financial interests, not disclosed above, that the analyst or any close associates holds in the issuer discussed in the report is limited to investment funds that do not
mainly invest in the issuer or industry discussed in the report and the management of which these persons cannot influence.
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