Ventas

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 k= 4 r=
n= 24 Paso 2 Paso 3 Paso 4 (Paso 2 x Paso 2)
Mes Ventas Y(t-K) Y(t) - Yprom Y(t-K) - Yprom (Y(t) - Yprom)2
1 250 -100.00 10,000.00
2 200 -150.00 22,500.00
3 250 -100.00 10,000.00
4 350 0.00 0.00
5 300 250.00 -50.00 -100.00 2,500.00
6 250 200.00 -100.00 -150.00 10,000.00
7 370 250.00 20.00 -100.00 400.00
8 400 350.00 50.00 0.00 2,500.00
9 330 300.00 -20.00 -50.00 400.00
10 450 250.00 100.00 -100.00 10,000.00
11 600 370.00 250.00 20.00 62,500.00
12 450 400.00 100.00 50.00 10,000.00
13 230 330.00 -120.00 -20.00 14,400.00
14 250 450.00 -100.00 100.00 10,000.00
15 220 600.00 -130.00 250.00 16,900.00
16 250 450.00 -100.00 100.00 10,000.00
17 320 230.00 -30.00 -120.00 900.00
18 330 250.00 -20.00 -100.00 400.00
19 380 220.00 30.00 -130.00 900.00
20 340 250.00 -10.00 -100.00 100.00
21 380 320.00 30.00 -30.00 900.00
22 550 330.00 200.00 -20.00 40,000.00
23 500 380.00 150.00 30.00 22,500.00
24 450 340.00 100.00 -10.00 10,000.00

Promedio = 350 Paso1 Paso 6 Total: 267,800.00

-0.111
Paso 5 (Paso 2 x Paso 3)
r
(Y(t) - Yprom)(Y(t-1) - Yprom) z k r
0.800
-0.9267 1 0.599
-1.3901 2 0.122
0.600
-0.9267 3 0.005
0.0000 4 -0.111
0.400
5,000.00 -0.4634 5 -0.296
15,000.00 -0.9267 6 -0.326
0.200
-2,000.00 0.1853 7 -0.233
0.00 0.4634 8 -0.290
0.000
1,000.00 -0.1853 9 0 -0.340 5 10 15 20 2
-10,000.00 0.9267 10-0.200 -0.057
5,000.00 2.3169 11 0.311
5,000.00 0.9267 12-0.400 0.413
2,400.00 -1.1121 13 0.279
-10,000.00 -0.9267 14 0.180
-32,500.00 -1.2048 15 0.088
-10,000.00 -0.9267 16 -0.039
3,600.00 -0.2780 17 -0.091
2,000.00 -0.1853 18 -0.082
-3,900.00 0.2780 19 -0.106
1,000.00 -0.0927 20 -0.179
-900.00 0.2780 21 -0.196
-4,000.00 1.8535 22 -0.112
4,500.00 1.3901 23 -0.037
-1,000.00 0.9267 24

-29,800.00
20 25
 Ventas
45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
 k= 1 r=
n= 36 Paso 2 Paso 3 Paso 4 (Paso 2 x Paso 2)
Mes Ventas Y(t-K) Y(t) - Yprom Y(t-K) - Yprom (Y(t) - Yprom)2
1 42,828 28,838.08 831,635,050.34
2 24,725 42,828.00 10,735.08 28,838.08 115,242,014.17
3 16,466 24,725.00 2,476.08 10,735.08 6,130,988.67
4 17,724 16,466.00 3,734.08 2,476.08 13,943,378.34
5 25,810 17,724.00 11,820.08 3,734.08 139,714,370.01
6 20,264 25,810.00 6,274.08 11,820.08 39,364,121.67
7 12,922 20,264.00 -1,067.92 6,274.08 1,140,446.01
8 8,380 12,922.00 -5,609.92 -1,067.92 31,471,165.01
9 9,145 8,380.00 -4,844.92 -5,609.92 23,473,217.51
10 19,580 9,145.00 5,590.08 -4,844.92 31,249,031.67
11 12,461 19,580.00 -1,528.92 5,590.08 2,337,586.17
12 11,876 12,461.00 -2,113.92 -1,528.92 4,468,643.67
13 18,901 11,876.00 4,911.08 -2,113.92 24,118,739.51
14 11,249 18,901.00 -2,740.92 4,911.08 7,512,624.17
15 14,380 11,249.00 390.08 -2,740.92 152,165.01
16 7,100 14,380.00 -6,889.92 390.08 47,470,951.67
17 3,767 7,100.00 -10,222.92 -6,889.92 104,508,025.17
18 3,333 3,767.00 -10,656.92 -10,222.92 113,569,872.84
19 2,228 3,333.00 -11,761.92 -10,656.92 138,342,683.67
20 11,107 2,228.00 -2,882.92 -11,761.92 8,311,208.51
21 13,654 11,107.00 -335.92 -2,882.92 112,840.01
22 10,293 13,654.00 -3,696.92 -335.92 13,667,192.84
23 12,644 10,293.00 -1,345.92 -3,696.92 1,811,491.67
24 8,701 12,644.00 -5,288.92 -1,345.92 27,972,639.51
25 26,461 8,701.00 12,471.08 -5,288.92 155,527,919.51
26 15,748 26,461.00 1,758.08 12,471.08 3,090,857.01
27 20,132 15,748.00 6,142.08 1,758.08 37,725,187.67
28 9,920 20,132.00 -4,069.92 6,142.08 16,564,221.67
29 5,203 9,920.00 -8,786.92 -4,069.92 77,209,904.51
30 4,560 5,203.00 -9,429.92 -8,786.92 88,923,328.34
31 3,119 4,560.00 -10,870.92 -9,429.92 118,176,829.17
32 15,549 3,119.00 1,559.08 -10,870.92 2,430,740.84
33 19,115 15,549.00 5,125.08 1,559.08 26,266,479.17
34 14,410 19,115.00 420.08 5,125.08 176,470.01
35 17,701 14,410.00 3,711.08 420.08 13,772,139.51
36 12,181 17,701.00 -1,808.92 3,711.08 3,272,179.51

Promedio = 13,990 Paso1 Paso 6 Total: 2,270,856,704.75

0.411
Paso 5 (Paso 2 x Paso 3)
(Y(t) - Yprom)(Y(t-1) - Yprom)

309,579,227.76
26,580,960.92
r
9,245,901.51 12.000
44,137,176.17
74,160,187.84
10.000
-6,700,198.16
5,990,923.51
27,179,578.76 8.000
-27,083,487.91
-8,546,771.58
3,232,002.42 6.000

-10,381,620.91
-13,460,870.16 4.000
-1,069,185.91
-2,687,641.66
70,435,043.92 2.000
108,944,771.01
125,345,765.76
0.000
33,908,625.59 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
968,419.76
1,241,855.92
4,975,741.76
7,118,441.09
-65,958,520.49
21,925,203.76
10,798,294.34
-24,997,767.33
35,762,018.59
82,859,891.92
102,511,838.26
-16,948,664.99
7,990,432.01
2,152,962.09
1,558,964.26
-6,713,040.49

934,056,459.33
8 10 12
 Clientes Nuevos
250

200

150

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
 enero febrero marzo abril mayo junio julio agosto setiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
2004 182 136 99 77 75 63 87 73 83 82 74 75
2005 102 121 128 128 112 122 104 108 97 141 97 87
2006 145 103 113 150 100 131 96 92 88 118 102 98
2007 101 153 138 107 100 114 78 106 94 93 103 104
2008 150 102 151 100 100 98 97 120 98 135 141 67
2009 127 146 175 10 153 117 121 121 131 147 121 110
2010 171 185 172 168 142 152 151 141 128 151 121 126
2011 166 138 175 108 112 147 168 149 149 149 169 138
2012 152 151 199
 k= 3 r=
n= 99
Paso1 Promedio = 121
Desv. Std. = 32.1035 Paso 2 Paso 3 Paso 4 (Paso 2 x Paso 2)
Año Mes Periodo Clientes Nuevos Y(t-K) Y(t) - Yprom Y(t-K) - Yprom (Y(t) - Yprom)2
2004 enero 1 182 60.83 3,700.08
2004 febrero 2 136 14.83 219.88
2004 marzo 3 99 -22.17 491.59
2004 abril 4 77 182.00 -44.17 60.83 1,951.14
2004 mayo 5 75 136.00 -46.17 14.83 2,131.83
2004 junio 6 63 99.00 -58.17 -22.17 3,383.95
2004 julio 7 87 77.00 -34.17 -44.17 1,167.71
2004 agosto 8 73 75.00 -48.17 -46.17 2,320.51
2004 setiembre 9 83 63.00 -38.17 -58.17 1,457.08
2004 octubre 10 82 87.00 -39.17 -34.17 1,534.42
2004 noviembre 11 74 73.00 -47.17 -48.17 2,225.17
2004 diciembre 12 75 83.00 -46.17 -38.17 2,131.83
2005 enero 13 102 82.00 -19.17 -39.17 367.55
2005 febrero 14 121 74.00 -0.17 -47.17 0.03
2005 marzo 15 128 75.00 6.83 -46.17 46.63
2005 abril 16 128 102.00 6.83 -19.17 46.63
2005 mayo 17 112 121.00 -9.17 -0.17 84.12
2005 junio 18 122 128.00 0.83 6.83 0.69
2005 julio 19 104 128.00 -17.17 6.83 294.87
2005 agosto 20 108 112.00 -13.17 -9.17 173.49
2005 setiembre 21 97 122.00 -24.17 0.83 584.27
2005 octubre 22 141 104.00 19.83 -17.17 393.16
2005 noviembre 23 97 108.00 -24.17 -13.17 584.27
2005 diciembre 24 87 97.00 -34.17 -24.17 1,167.71
2006 enero 25 145 141.00 23.83 19.83 567.79
2006 febrero 26 103 97.00 -18.17 -24.17 330.21
2006 marzo 27 113 87.00 -8.17 -34.17 66.78
2006 abril 28 150 145.00 28.83 23.83 831.07
2006 mayo 29 100 103.00 -21.17 -18.17 448.24
2006 junio 30 131 113.00 9.83 -8.17 96.60
2006 julio 31 96 150.00 -25.17 28.83 633.62
2006 agosto 32 92 100.00 -29.17 -21.17 850.99
2006 setiembre 33 88 131.00 -33.17 9.83 1,100.36
2006 octubre 34 118 96.00 -3.17 -25.17 10.06
2006 noviembre 35 102 92.00 -19.17 -29.17 367.55
2006 diciembre 36 98 88.00 -23.17 -33.17 536.93
2007 enero 37 101 118.00 -20.17 -3.17 406.90
2007 febrero 38 153 102.00 31.83 -19.17 1,013.04
2007 marzo 39 138 98.00 16.83 -23.17 283.19
2007 abril 40 107 101.00 -14.17 -20.17 200.84
2007 mayo 41 100 153.00 -21.17 31.83 448.24
2007 junio 42 114 138.00 -7.17 16.83 51.43
2007 julio 43 78 107.00 -43.17 -14.17 1,863.80
2007 agosto 44 106 100.00 -15.17 -21.17 230.18
2007 setiembre 45 94 114.00 -27.17 -7.17 738.30
2007 octubre 46 93 78.00 -28.17 -43.17 793.65
2007 noviembre 47 103 106.00 -18.17 -15.17 330.21
2007 diciembre 48 104 94.00 -17.17 -27.17 294.87
2008 enero 49 150 93.00 28.83 -28.17 831.07
2008 febrero 50 102 103.00 -19.17 -18.17 367.55
2008 marzo 51 151 104.00 29.83 -17.17 889.73
2008 abril 52 100 150.00 -21.17 28.83 448.24
2008 mayo 53 100 102.00 -21.17 -19.17 448.24
2008 junio 54 98 151.00 -23.17 29.83 536.93
2008 julio 55 97 100.00 -24.17 -21.17 584.27
2008 agosto 56 120 100.00 -1.17 -21.17 1.37
2008 setiembre 57 98 98.00 -23.17 -23.17 536.93
2008 octubre 58 135 97.00 13.83 -24.17 191.22
2008 noviembre 59 141 120.00 19.83 -1.17 393.16
2008 diciembre 60 67 98.00 -54.17 -23.17 2,934.57
2009 enero 61 127 135.00 5.83 13.83 33.97
2009 febrero 62 146 141.00 24.83 19.83 616.44
2009 marzo 63 175 67.00 53.83 -54.17 2,897.48
2009 abril 64 10 127.00 -111.17 5.83 12,359.15
2009 mayo 65 153 146.00 31.83 24.83 1,013.04
2009 junio 66 117 175.00 -4.17 53.83 17.40
2009 julio 67 121 10.00 -0.17 -111.17 0.03
2009 agosto 68 121 153.00 -0.17 31.83 0.03
2009 setiembre 69 131 117.00 9.83 -4.17 96.60
2009 octubre 70 147 121.00 25.83 -0.17 667.10
2009 noviembre 71 121 121.00 -0.17 -0.17 0.03
2009 diciembre 72 110 131.00 -11.17 9.83 124.81
2010 enero 73 171 147.00 49.83 25.83 2,482.86
2010 febrero 74 185 121.00 63.83 -0.17 4,074.05
2010 marzo 75 172 110.00 50.83 -11.17 2,583.51
2010 abril 76 168 171.00 46.83 49.83 2,192.89
2010 mayo 77 142 185.00 20.83 63.83 433.82
2010 junio 78 152 172.00 30.83 50.83 950.38
2010 julio 79 151 168.00 29.83 46.83 889.73
2010 agosto 80 141 142.00 19.83 20.83 393.16
2010 setiembre 81 128 152.00 6.83 30.83 46.63
2010 octubre 82 151 151.00 29.83 29.83 889.73
2010 noviembre 83 121 141.00 -0.17 19.83 0.03
2010 diciembre 84 126 128.00 4.83 6.83 23.31
2011 enero 85 166 151.00 44.83 29.83 2,009.57
2011 febrero 86 138 121.00 16.83 -0.17 283.19
2011 marzo 87 175 126.00 53.83 4.83 2,897.48
2011 abril 88 108 166.00 -13.17 44.83 173.49
2011 mayo 89 112 138.00 -9.17 16.83 84.12
2011 junio 90 147 175.00 25.83 53.83 667.10
2011 julio 91 168 108.00 46.83 -13.17 2,192.89
2011 agosto 92 149 112.00 27.83 -9.17 774.41
2011 setiembre 93 149 147.00 27.83 25.83 774.41
2011 octubre 94 149 168.00 27.83 46.83 774.41
2011 noviembre 95 169 149.00 47.83 27.83 2,287.54
2011 diciembre 96 138 149.00 16.83 27.83 283.19
2012 enero 97 152 149.00 30.83 27.83 950.38
2012 febrero 98 151 169.00 29.83 47.83 889.73
2012 marzo 99 199 138.00 77.83 16.83 6,057.24

Paso 6 Total: 101,002.08

0.300

Paso 5 (Paso 2 x Paso 3)

(Y(t) - Yprom)(Y(t-1) - Yprom) z k r
1.8948 1 0.343
0.4619 2 0.357 r
-0.6906 3 0.300
0.400
-2,686.89 -1.3759 4 0.346
-684.65 -1.4382 5 0.218
1,289.77 -1.8120 6 0.173 0.300

1,509.42 -1.0644 7 0.234

2,224.17 -1.5005 8 0.216 0.200
2,220.51 -1.1890 9 0.123
1,338.56 -1.2202 10 0.122
0.100
2,272.34 -1.4694 11 0.177
1,762.45 -1.4382 12 0.291
0.000
750.99 -0.5972 13 0.151 0 20 40 6
8.10 -0.0053 14 0.201
-315.27 0.2127 15 0.049 -0.100
-130.91 0.2127 16 0.123
1.57 -0.2857 17 0.202 -0.200
5.66 0.0258 18 0.057
-117.25 -0.5349 19 0.127
-0.300
120.81 -0.4103 20 0.129
-20.02 -0.7529 21 0.146
-340.49 0.6176 22 0.069
318.38 -0.7529 23 0.110
825.99 -1.0644 24 0.245
472.47 0.7422 25 0.094
439.24 -0.5660 26 0.013
279.24 -0.2545 27 -0.010
686.93 0.8980 28 0.029
384.73 -0.6595 29 0.061
-80.31 0.3061 30 -0.110
-725.66 -0.7841 31 -0.027
617.62 -0.9087 32 -0.053
-326.02 -1.0333 33 -0.016
79.84 -0.0988 34 -0.017
559.27 -0.5972 35 -0.051
768.65 -0.7218 36 0.084
63.98 -0.6283 37 0.056
-610.20 0.9914 38 -0.009
-389.94 0.5242 39 -0.137
285.87 -0.4414 40 0.015
 -673.86 -0.6595 41 -0.027
-120.69 -0.2234 42 -0.140
611.82 -1.3448 43 -0.044
321.21 -0.4726 44 -0.098
194.87 -0.8464 45 -0.075
1,216.22 -0.8775 46 -0.063
275.70 -0.5660 47 -0.039
466.59 -0.5349 48 0.040
-812.14 0.8980 49 -0.050
348.38 -0.5972 50 -0.077
-512.20 0.9291 51 -0.099
-610.34 -0.6595 52 -0.075
405.90 -0.6595 53 -0.092
-691.17 -0.7218 54 -0.106
511.76 -0.7529 55 -0.091
24.81 -0.0365 56 -0.085
536.93 -0.7218 57 -0.027
-334.25 0.4307 58 -0.078
-23.23 0.6176 59 -0.093
1,255.25 -1.6874 60 -0.009
80.60 0.1815 61 -0.060
492.30 0.7734 62 -0.125
-2,915.97 1.6767 63 -0.214
-647.94 -3.4629 64 -0.150
790.24 0.9914 65 -0.138
-224.56 -0.1299 66 -0.189
19.09 -0.0053 67 -0.177
-5.47 -0.0053 68 -0.173
-41.00 0.3061 69 -0.130
-4.44 0.8045 70 -0.175
0.03 -0.0053 71 -0.129
-109.80 -0.3480 72 -0.094
1,286.98 1.5521 73 -0.082
-10.96 1.9882 74 -0.081
-567.84 1.5833 75 -0.101
2,333.37 1.4587 76 -0.089
1,329.43 0.6488 77 -0.040
1,566.95 0.9603 78 -0.079
1,396.81 0.9291 79 -0.095
412.99 0.6176 80 -0.094
210.50 0.2127 81 -0.090
889.73 0.9291 82 -0.109
-3.40 -0.0053 83 -0.090
32.97 0.1504 84 -0.068
1,337.15 1.3964 85 -0.093
 -2.89 0.5242 86 -0.106
259.90 1.6767 87 -0.164
-590.47 -0.4103 88 -0.137
-154.34 -0.2857 89 -0.098
1,390.29 0.8045 90 -0.072
-616.81 1.4587 91 -0.079
-255.23 0.8668 92 -0.055
718.76 0.8668 93 -0.052
1,303.15 0.8668 94 -0.024
1,330.98 1.4898 95 -0.026
468.30 0.5242 96 0.006
857.90 0.9603 97 0.029
1,426.64 0.9291 98 0.047
1,309.72 2.4243 99

30,344.13
 r

0 40 60 80 100 120
Mes Ventas
1 250
2 200
3 250
4 350
5 300
6 250
7 370
8 400
9 330
10 450
11 600
12 450
13 230
14 250
15 220
16 250
17 320
18 330
19 380
20 340
21 380
22 550
23 500
24 450