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Seasonal dip in coal prices, but it is not the end. Structural factors
236 1
inventory as demand was tepid post-winter driving season) have dragged 196 1
USD218/tonne on average). However, demand may pick up in the later part 156 1
of the year as power companies ramp up restocking activities. This may
136
also coincide with the improvement in China’s economy – this should be a
116
short-term catalyst for the coal sector in general, as mining activity picks up
when the dry season commences. Over the longer term, though, it may face 96
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Jul-22
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Feb-23
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a major risk in demand declining as more companies shift to renewable
energy (RE) to power their operations. As such, we lean towards being Source: Bloomberg
conservative in our outlook (Newcastle coal prices estimated at
USD150/tonne and USD90/tonne in 2023 and 2024, while USD75/tonne
would be a price support from FY25F onwards). These estimates would
also act as our base when projecting BIPI’s profitability as well.
ESG overlay. BIPI has an ESG score of 2.7 out of 4. As such, in line with
our in-house proprietary methodology, we apply a 6% discount to its intrinsic
value to derive our TP. This is account for its “E” score as it uses fossil fuels,
albeit offset by its respectable level of corporate governance. Our TP also
implies 4.4-4.9x 2023-2024F P/E – which is still below the sector average,
in spite of its stellar FY23F EPS growth.
Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial summary (USD) Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F Dec-24F Dec-25F
Indonesia Recurring EPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Energy & Petrochemicals BVPS 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Astrindo Nusantara Infrastruktur Return on average equity (%) 4.6 0.1 26.6 19.7 16.3
BIPI IJ
Valuation metrics Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F Dec-24F Dec-25F
Trading Buy
Recurring P/E (x) 27.89 2,516.27 3.97 4.42 4.71
P/B (x) 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7
Valuation basis
FCF Yield (%) (9.0) (14.4) 15.5 15.4 15.4
10-year DCF valuation EV/EBITDA (x) (0.12) na 0.42 0.11 (0.12)
EV/EBIT (x) (0.16) 15.20 0.47 0.13 (0.15)
Key drivers
i. Aggressive growth in production volume; Income statement (USDm) Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F Dec-24F Dec-25F
ii. Lower production costs; Total turnover 65.6 43.7 709.1 528.2 529.0
iii. Fair quality of thermal coal products (low-pollutant, Gross profit 48.2 20.6 226.5 195.1 183.0
high calorific value). EBITDA 56.7 (36.3) 246.3 219.4 213.4
Depreciation and amortisation (13.6) 48.8 (28.5) (33.5) (39.9)
Key risks Operating profit 43.1 12.5 217.8 186.0 173.5
i. Delay in expansion plan; Net interest (51.4) (45.2) (35.5) (30.9) (28.2)
ii. Adverse effect of any changes in government Pre-tax profit 28.6 18.2 192.8 166.1 156.9
regulations; Taxation (6.7) (3.9) (48.2) (34.9) (32.9)
iii. Volatile coal prices. Reported net profit 14.3 0.2 130.4 117.0 109.8
Recurring net profit 14.3 0.2 130.4 117.0 109.8
Company Profile
Astrindo Nusantara Infrastruktur is an integrated energy Cash flow (USDm) Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F Dec-24F Dec-25F
and resources company. It is currently focused on coal Change in working capital (36) (29) (20) (5) 1
mining and logistics (port, continuous barge unloader, Cash flow from operations (36) (102) 135 143 153
overland conveyor, processing plant & crusher for
Capex 0 27 (55) (63) (73)
coal).
Cash flow from investing activities 388 10 (55) (63) (73)
Dividends paid 0 0 0 (0) (39)
Cash flow from financing activities (364) 258 23 24 11
Cash at beginning of period 4 8 17 124 230
Net change in cash (12) 166 103 104 91
Ending balance cash 8 17 124 230 319
Business Overview
Changing course towards more reliable businesses
Founded in 2007, BIPI was originally an oil & gas (O&G) player via a joint operation
agreement with Indonesia’s state-owned oil company Pertamina. The company was listed
on the IDX as Benakat Petroleum Energy in 2010, raising c.IDR1.5trn from its IPO. In 2013,
its business underwent a change when management decided to enter the mining
infrastructure services field by acquiring Astrindo Mahakarya Indonesia. Thereafter, it began
to hive off its O&G investments. Since then, BIPI’s coal-generating assets in Kalimantan
have focused on coal marine terminals, a crushing & processing plant (CPP), overland
conveyor (OLC), and coal barge unloader (CBU) that cater to two long-term clients, Kaltim
Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia – both concessions are run by Bumi Resources (BUMI
IJ, NR) with total coal output of c.60m tonnes per year.
Figure 2: BIPI’s mining infrastructure and services operations – this segment was the company’s main revenue contributor
prior to it acquiring the coal mine
Figure 3: Ownership structure of BIPI’s new coal assets – these will be helmed by Sakari Resources
BIPI has been entitled to all economic interest of Nusantara Mining as of 1 Jul 2022, and
these will be consolidated fully post 1Q23. As depicted in Figure 3, the only operating
concession under Nusantara Mining is owned by Sakari Resources (SAR), apart from other
assets located overseas. SAR manages three main coal mines with total Joint Ore Reserve
Committee (JORC)-certified coal reserves of c.100m tonnes and resources totalling
c.1,430m tonnes.
Figure 4: Brief details of SAR’s concessions – the major focus is on its Jembayan mines
Jembayan Sebuku Penajam
CCOW: Under Development
Status Producing Under Development
IUP 1&2 : Suspended
Location East Kalimantan South Kalimantan East Kalimantan
Apart from owning the assets, BIPI also will continue to fulfil its trading contract with a regular
customer (through SAR’s trading arm in Singapore) that is a dominant player in a utilities
market with higher restrictions, ie requiring coal with less pollutants, which is typically
mandated in places like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. For now, most of BIPI’s near-term
coal production comes from the Jembayan mine (Figures 4 and 5).
BIPI currently produces coal with an average calorific value (CV) of c.5,600 kcal/kg from the
Jembayan area, with an annual capacity of c.6m tonnes (c.5m tonnes of volume have been
put under contract with its client). As only 20% of the annual target volume will be sold at
the spot market, it has long-term revenue visibility of at least one year. The company plans
to start mining the south (for the KRA area) and north corners (for the JMB Prangat Block)
in 2024. The expansion in the south will be able to add another c.2m tonnes of production
capacity, while the north corner is set for expansion in the years to come – as it still needs
to be explored and forestry permits are required.
Investment Thesis
Strong volume growth
We expect BIPI, considered one of the fastest growing listed coal companies, to double its
production to c.12m tonnes by 2027-2028. This is because all its operations have been
stabilised in the transition of its business focus. Currently, its annual production totals 6m
tonnes, from the matured block in Jembayan – contributed by mines in the underdeveloped
southern area of Jembayan, Sebuku and Penajam which contribute about 2m tonnes each.
These newly acquired mining areas have not been developed for three years, since PTT
was in the process of selling the asset. Furthermore, BIPI’s latest update on its reserves
indicates an equivalent of c.15 years of mining life, based on its current production capacity.
However, we believe that it should not have any issues extending its concession mining
license in the future.
We initiate coverage on BIPI with a TRADING BUY call and DCF-based TP of IDR254. Our
TP includes an ESG discount of 6% to account for its business trajectory (its products are
related to fossil fuels) and fair corporate governance. The bulk of the valuation is
represented by the Jembayan mine, followed by the expansion of the other two
concessions. This translates to 2023-2024F P/Es of 4.4-4.9x (still fairly below the sector
average), relative to its stellar FY23F EPS growth.
Figure 9: Forecasted toplines from the Jembayan mine (CV: about 5,600kcal/kg)
2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
Jembayan revenue (USDm) 648 369 306 357 383 407 407 411
Jembayan will be the only coal mine to
Sales volume (m tonnes) 5.6 5.7 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.1 generate revenue for a while, and its coal
Coal mined (m tonnes) 5.6 5.7 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.1 contains the highest CV compared to
(%) growth -8% 2% 5% 17% 10% 7% 0% 1%
coal produced from its other sites
Newcastle avg. (m tonnes) 150 90 75 75 75 75 75 75 Production may be temporarily
ASP (USD/tonne) 115.5 64.8 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 dampened, due to extreme weather.
% of NewC - price 77.0% 72.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% However, we believe that this situation
Cash cost (USD/tonne) 82.2 41.0 33.3 32.6 33.6 34.6 34.3 34.6 should alleviate when the dry season
% growth 3% -46% -25% -2% 3% 3% 3% 1% begins
Strip ratio (x) 13.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.5
Mining cost (USDm) 461 233 200 228 252 276 274 279
Figure 10: Forecasted toplines from the Sebuku mine (CV: c.4,800kcal/kg)
2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F
Sebuku revenue (USDm) 104 93 102 99 96 95 95 95
Sales volume (m tonnes) 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Production from the Sebuku area will
Coal mined (m tonnes) 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 start again in 2024, with an initial annual
(%) growth 0% 10% -3% -3% -1% 0% 0%
volume of 2m tonnes
Newcastle avg. (m tonnes) 90 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 The mining site is considered a
ASP (USD/tonne) 52.2 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 brownfield area as some supportive
% of NewC - price 58.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0% infrastructure remains intact after
Cash cost (USD/tonne) 38.0 32.9 32.3 32.3 32.3 31.0 31.7 31.0 production was halted in 2020
% growth -3% -20% -2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2%
Strip ratio (x) 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.2
Mining cost (USDm) 76 66 71 69 67 64 65 64
Figure 11: Forecasted toplines from the Penajam mine (CV: c.3,900-4,500kcal/kg)
2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F
Penajam revenue (USDm) 81 91 96 94 92 90 88 87
Sales volume (m tonnes) 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 The company will look at other prospects
Coal mined (m tonnes) 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 in Penajam (a greenfield mine). The CV
(%) growth 5% 5% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% of this site’s coal is the lowest compared
Newcastle avg. (m tonnes) 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 to that of others, but is also still feasible
ASP (USD/tonne) 40.7 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 for the utilities sector – due to its lower
% of NewC - price 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0% ash content compared to other coal
Cash cost (USD/tonne) 27.7 28.2 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 products in the region
% growth -21% 2% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Strip ratio (x) 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6
Mining cost (USDm) 55 59 64 63 62 61 60 58
Source: Company data, RHB
EBIT 218 186 173 203 202 198 200 194 203 197 220
EBIT (1-t) 163 147 137 152 151 148 150 146 152 147 165
Depreciation & amortisation 29 33 40 48 58 69 81 89 95 103 111
Changes in working capital (20) (5) 1 (9) (3) (4) (0) (0) (1) (0) (2)
Capital expenditures (55) (63) (73) (87) (93) (100) (107) (114) (122) (131) (140)
Net free cash flow 117 112 105 105 112 113 124 120 124 119 133
PV FCF 117 96 78 66 61 53 49 41 36 30 203
Terminal value 806
Terminal growth 0%
WACC 17%
Total discounted firm value 831
Net debt 247
Minority interest (14)
Equity value 1,064
Number of shares (m units) 57,918
Equity value per share (IDR) 270
ESG Discount 6%
Implied TP 254
Source: Company data, RHB
BIPI may still be one of the few companies that may see a turnaround in coal sales, even
though coal prices may still be at risk of falling further. Coal GPMs are still quite healthy,
and sales should provide fair cash flow for some years ahead. We estimate its FY23-33
revenue based on the estimated increase of its coal production volume and moderate
pricing for the commodity. We expect its production capacity to expand from c.6m tonnes in
2022 to c.12 m tonnes in 2027 – this steady increase (at a 13% CAGR over the next six
years) is key for BIPI to minimise the risks of price fluctuations. Management will also need
1-2 adjustment periods where it can fine-tune overall costs – according to our conservative
GPM outlook (which is a base case scenario). We also have moderate growth estimates on
BIPI’s other segments (ports and crusher rental) accordingly (3-5% YoY growth), with stable
margins anticipated.
Figure 14: BIPI’s revenue trend is supported by its sales Figure 15: BIPI’s net earnings trend points to reasonable
growth margins
(USDm) (m tonnes) (USDm) (%)
700 14.0
140 23.5
10.0 130
21.5
600
125
8.0 20.5
550 120
6.0 19.5
115
500
4.0 18.5
110
Industry Overview
Extension of China’s zero tariff rate on coal imports; weather risks
China is the biggest consumer of thermal coal, accounting for nearly 70% of global coal
demand. The extension of its zero import tariff indicates that 2023F demand outpaces its
domestic output by far, against the backdrop of its economic reopening. China’s coal output
has been increasing throughout 2022, with December’s output already >20% higher than
the monthly average in 1H22. Meanwhile, the latest coal (thermal and metallurgical) YTD
import data in China still points to an uptrend – in line with its plan to increase inventory
levels. This is also backed by the country’s initiative to prevent any shocks stemming from
extreme weather changes. After learning from the past, governments are taking no chances
to secure national power supplies ahead, to eliminate power outages.
Figure 16: China’s total seaborne coal imports Figure 17: China’s domestic coal production
(m tonnes)
435 40.0%
Total imported coal in average: c.260m tonnes p.a
335
410 32.5%
300 385 25.0%
Average: 5.2% YoY
265 360
+96% YoY 17.5%
230 335
10.0%
310
195
2.5%
285
160 -5.0%
260
125 -12.5%
235
90 210 -20.0%
Dec-19
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Aug-21
Apr-18
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-22
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
55
20
Coal production (m tonnes; LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
Figure 18: Indonesia’s total coal output – coal is still a preferred choice to
generate power
(m tonnes)
750
700
650 Given its large coal reserves, Indonesia
is still focusing on coal production by
600
ramping up domestic demand for
550 electricity and catering to the offshore
500 market (Indonesian coal makes up about
450 60% of China’s total coal imports). Coal
is still needed to generate power through
400
conventional means, as the transition to
350 RE takes time. RE currently accounts for
300 only c.14% of Indonesia’s total power
250 output
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F2024F
Figure 19: Coal-powered plant trend in global – dominated by China & India
100,000
90,000 Energy addition per year in average: 66,700 MW Despite the transition to RE, there is still
80,000 a crucial need for stable energy output
from thermal coal, in order to fulfil the
70,000
demand for power
60,000
50,000
Looking at the number of blackouts in the
past two years (due to a sudden surge in
40,000 Retired power plant per year in average: 19,700 MW
energy demand, caused by climate
30,000 factors and the COVID-19 pandemic),
20,000 some regions are are still commencing
coal-powered plant projects – c.70% of
10,000
new coal-fired power plant capacity in the
0 past five years were from India and
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
China
Figure 20: Newcastle benchmark price trend points to new turbulence in the
cycle ahead, albeit for the short term. This would also determine the sensitivity of
share prices ahead
16,000 Strong economy posts GFC (2007-2009) Economy revival
Higher coal demand from China Gas supply conundrum from geopolitcal tensions 440
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Coal sector share price (pts; LHS) Newcastle price (USD/tonne; RHS)
Winston Jusuf
Hermawan Chandra
Michael Wong
Michael Wong, a 55-year-old Indonesian, has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business &
Administrative Studies from Lewis & Clark College in Oregon, the US (1990) and a
graduate diploma in Marketing of Financial Services from Marketing Institute Singapore
Director
(1993). He was appointed as a director on 16 May 2017. Previously, he was Vice President
– Structured & Project Finance at ING Indonesia Bank (1997-1999) and a Director of
Benakat Barat Petroleum (2008-2010).
Ferdy Yustianto
Ferdy Yustianto, a 48-year-old Indonesian, has a Bachelor of Science degree from Trisakti
University in Jakarta in 1995, an MBA from California State University in 1999, and a
Master’s degree in Geology from Padjadjaran University (2014). He was appointed as a
Director
director on 27 Nov 2019. He also served as President Director of Perdana Sawit Mas and
Director at Cakrawala Sejahtera Sejati (2010-present) and President Director of Sejati
Palma Sejahtera and President Director at Netzme (2017-present).
Recommendation Chart
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
Price Close
2023-06-21
233
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
213
193
173
153
133
113
93
73
53
33
Jun-18 Sep-19 Jan-21 Apr-22
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan-24F
Jun-24F
Jan-25F
Jun-25F
Jan-26F
Jun-26F
Jul-24F
Jul-25F
Jul-26F
Aug-24F
Dec-26F
Sep-24F
Mar-25F
Aug-25F
Sep-25F
Oct-25F
Feb-24F
Mar-24F
Nov-25F
Dec-25F
Aug-26F
Sep-26F
Apr-24F
Oct-24F
Nov-24F
Dec-24F
Feb-25F
Oct-26F
May-24F
Apr-25F
Feb-26F
Mar-26F
Nov-26F
May-25F
Apr-26F
May-26F
Source: RHB
15
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
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RHBIB Group, may, from time to time, have business relationships with, hold any analysts do not have a financial interest (including a shareholding of 1% or more)
positions in the securities and/or capital market products (including but not limited to in the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
shares, warrants, and/or derivatives), trade or otherwise effect transactions for its own 3. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research staff or connected persons do not serve
account or the account of its customers or perform and/or solicit investment, advisory on the board or trustee positions of the issuer covered by the Singapore research
or other services from any of the subject company(ies) covered in this research report. analysts in this report.
4. RHB Bank Berhad, its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have
While the RHBIB Group will ensure that there are sufficient information barriers and and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory
internal controls in place where necessary, to prevent/manage any conflicts of interest relationship with the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts in this
to ensure the independence of this report, investors should also be aware that such report or any other relationship that may create a potential conflict of interest.
conflict of interest may exist in view of the investment banking activities undertaken by 5. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts, or person associated or
the RHBIB Group as mentioned above and should exercise their own judgement connected to it do not have any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, the
before making any investment decisions. securities, specified securities based derivatives contracts or units in a collective
investment scheme covered by the Singapore research analysts in this report.
In Singapore, investment research activities are conducted under RHB Bank Berhad 6. RHB Bank Berhad’s Singapore research analysts do not receive any
(through its Singapore branch), and the disclaimers above similarly apply. compensation or benefit in connection with the production of this research report
or recommendation on the issuer covered by the Singapore research analysts.
Malaysia
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research conflict disclosures - Jun 2023 Analyst Certification
and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that: The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:
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(1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market
products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
Analyst Company
- -
(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
BANGKOK SINGAPORE
RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 90 Cecil Street
98, North Sathorn Road, Silom #04-00 RHB Bank Building
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Singapore 069531
Thailand Fax: +65 6509 0470
Tel: +66 2088 9999
Fax :+66 2088 9799
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