Company

Update
Aneka Tambang (ANTM) Commodities
Steady gold prices
Nov 13, 2023
Expecting gold price to stay at a high level
Gold prices have climbed by 6.4% YTD (10Nov2023) to USD1,940/oz, bringing YTD
average to USD1,931.2/oz or 13.5% higher than our expectation. We believe that
strong Central Bank (CB) net purchase supported the gold price at a high level amid
ongoing wars. we raised our average FY23F gold price assumptions to
USD1,930/oz (from USD1,700/oz), and subsequently, we raised our FY24-25F gold
price/oz assumptions to USD1,950/1,850 from USD1,600/1,500. Specifically for 12M rating BUY (Maintain)
ANTM, we lifted FY23-25F gold ASP by 8.2/17.4/22.0% following our adjustment in
gold price assumptions, but we slashed our FY23-25F gold sales volume by
12M TP IDR 2,200
Upside +36.6%
9.2%/6.4%/6.4% considering 9M23 achievement.
Reducing FeNi sales volume forecast Stock Data
ANTM reported sluggish FeNi sales volumes in 3Q23, recording only 3,526 tonnes JCI (Nov 10) 6,809
(-44.2% QoQ/-53.9% YoY), or the lowest quarter over the last 5 years. ANTM Stock price (Nov 10, IDR) 1,625
explained that there was some sales volume done in late 3Q23, which would Market cap (IDR bn) 39,049

eventually spill over to 4Q23. However, as 9M23 FeNi sales volume only achieved Shares outstanding (m) 24,030
52-week high/low (IDR) 2,390/1,625
54.0% of our previous FY23 forecast. Thus, we cut FY23F FeNi sales volume
6M avg. daily turnover (IDR bn) 69.16
projections by 18.5% to 21,356 tonnes and adjusted down our FY24/25F sales
Free float (%) 34.95
volume projections by 20.0%/12.5%. We also cut our FY23/24/25F FeNi ASP by
Major shareholders (%)
16.8/18.0/15.5% as we revised our payability to NPI (8-12%) price forecasts.
PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium 65.0
Higher-than-expected nickel ore sales volumes
ANTM nickel ore sales volume was strong in 3Q23 at 3.15 mn wmt (+11.5%
QoQ/+83.7% YoY), bringing 9M23 to 9.4 mn wmt (+98.1% YoY) exceeding our
previous FY23F assumptions of 8.23 mn wmt. However, ANTM has not benefited
from recent shortage of nickel ore supply which led to a higher premium over nickel
ore benchmark price. We raised our assumptions of ANTM FY23-25F nickel ore Performance
sales volumes by 36.4/16.9/20.4% to 11.2mn/10.1mn/10.4mn wmt. However, we 1M 6M 12M
adjusted down our FY23-25F nickel ore ASP by 4.9/4.8/4.8%. Absolute (%) (10.5) (19.5) (15.4)

Retain BUY call with lower TP of IDR2,200/share Relative to JCI (%p) (5.8) (20.0) (20.2)

We view for now relatively high gold prices and the expectation of an uptrend to
ANTM stock price
continue next year remains as the catalyst for ANTM. Meanwhile, pressure from
lower nickel prices is inevitable, but we believe the investors have priced in the
negative sentiment. We see commercialization of ANTM FeNi Haltim starting in 2,900
1Q24 to support the ANTM in terms of FeNi sales volume growth. All in, we retain 2,700
our BUY call on ANTM, with a lower TP of IDR2,200/sh. We rolled forward our 2,500
valuation base to FY24F and we derived our valuation from equally weighted DCF 2,300
and EVEBITDA target. ANTM now trades at 11.9/10.5x 24F PE/ EVEBITDA. 2,100
1,900
2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F 1,700

Sales (IDR bn) 38,449 45,930 40,884 40,954 41,973 1,500

Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23
GP (IDR bn) 6,362 8,211 8,161 7,974 8,818
Source: Bloomberg
OP (IDR bn) 2,741 3,942 4,359 4,166 4,914
NP (IDR bn) 1,862 3,821 3,505 3,339 3,875
EBITDA (IDR
3,632 4,800 5,305 5,168 5,951
bn)
Net debt (IDR
782 (1,468) (2,305) (2,503) (3,900)
bn)
OP margin (%) 7.1 8.6 10.7 10.2 11.7
ROE (%) 8.9 16.1 13.9 12.4 13.3
Dividend yield
1.0 2.3 4.8 4.4 4.2
(%)
EPS (IDR) 77 159 146 139 161 Fahressi Fahalmesta
chg. (%, YoY) 62.0 105.2 (8.3) (4.7) 16.0
fahressi.f@kisi.co.id
BPS (IDR) 867 987 1,053 1,119 1,211
DPS (IDR) 17 39 80 73 69
PE (x) 21.4 10.4 11.4 11.9 10.3
PB (x) 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 11.6 10.3 10.5 8.9

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

I. Expecting gold price to stay at a high level

Gold prices have climbed by 6.4% YTD (10Nov2023) to USD1,940/oz, bringing YTD
average to USD1,931.2/oz or 13.5% higher than our expectation. Historically, there is a
strong negative correlation between gold price and US real yield. However, the pattern seemed
to break in 2022 onwards; US real yield continued on an upward trajectory while gold price
stayed above USD1,800/oz level in the past 2 years. We believe that strong Central Bank (CB)
net purchase supported the gold price at a high level amid ongoing wars (i.e. Russia – Ukraine
and recently Israel – Hamas). CB gold net purchase hit 800 tonnes as of 9M23 (on track to
match FY22’s high 1,082 tonnes, twice as much as the average annual CB gold net
purchase between 2011 and 2021.

Fig 1. Gold price and U.S. real yield Fig 2. Quarterly Central Bank Net Purchase

(tonne) Central bank Net Purchase

Gold price U.S. real yield - reverse (%)
(USD/oz)
500
2,500.0 -1.5
-1
400
2,000.0 -0.5
0
300
1,500.0 0.5
1
200
1,000.0 1.5
2
500.0 2.5 100

3
- 3.5 -
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23

-100

Source: Bloomberg, KISI Source: Bloomberg, KISI

Nonetheless, we foresee the relationship between gold price and U.S. real yield will revert
to its historical pattern. CB gold net purchase reached its peak in 3Q22 (record-breaking
quarter) and has yet to reach that quarterly level despite current rising geopolitical tension. The
Fed has signaled one more rate hike this year. Considering the current high rate, market expects
deeper rate cuts in FY24 as a means to drive economic growth and we see this as a catalyst to
support the gold price. As such, we raised our average FY23F gold price assumptions to
USD1,930/oz (from USD1,700/oz), and subsequently, we raised our FY24-25F gold
price/oz assumptions to USD1,950/1,850 from USD1,600/1,500.

Fig 3. Average gold price assumptions

(USD/Oz) Gold price (USD/oz) Old assumptions

2,500

1,910 1,950
2,000 1,850
1,802 1,700
1,600
1,500
1,500

1,000

500

-
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F

Source: Bloomberg, KISI

1
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

Specifically for ANTM, the gold demand this year is lower than what we saw in FY22. In 3Q23,
ANTM booked 191,362 oz sales volume, a 5.3% QoQ drop & a 52.2% YoY drop. Cumulative
9M23 gold sales volume reached 625,654 oz (fell 25.0% YoY), representing only 63.1% of our
previous FY23 forecast. We deem this achievement as below our expectations given the
company’s historical average sales volumes achievement in 9M stood at above 70%. Therefore
we slashed our FY23-25F gold sales volume by 9.2%/6.4%/6.4%. On the other hand, we lifted
FY23-25F gold ASP by 8.2/17.4/22.0% following our adjustment in gold price assumptions.

Fig 4. ANTM gold sales volumes Fig 5. ANTM 9M23 ASP

(t oz) (USD/oz)
2,000 1,986
450,000
400,000 +7.3% YoY
1,950
350,000
300,000
1,900
250,000
200,000 1,851
1,850
150,000
100,000
50,000 1,800

-
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23

1,750
9M22 9M23

Source: Company, KISI Source: Company, KISI

Fig 6. Gold volumes and ASP forecast changes

ANTM
Assumptions FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F FY24F FY25F
(new) (New) (New) (old) (old) (old)
Gold sales volume
899,372 899,372 899,372 990,854 961,128 961,128
(troy oz)
Change (%) -9.2% -6.4% -6.4%
Gold ASP
1,895 1,935 1,886 1,751 1,648 1,545
(USD/troy oz)
Change (%) 8.2% 17.4% 22.0%
Source: Company, KISI

2
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

II. Fine-tuning FeNi and nickel ore projections

Adjusted FeNi ASP and sales volume downward
ANTM reported sluggish FeNi sales volumes in 3Q23, recording only 3,526 tonnes (-44.2%
QoQ/-53.9% YoY), or the lowest quarter over the last 5 years. Meanwhile, FeNi production
volumes in 3Q23 still surged by 2.9% QoQ to 5,250 tonnes. This is similar to the situation in
2Q22, where production volume increased, but sales volume dropped. At that time,
lockdowns in several targeted markets and high nickel prices were the key reasons for the weak
FeNi sales volume. This time, we believe that lower demand in several key markets is the main
factor as NPI price averaging at USD15.5k/tonne (much lower as compared to 2Q22 at
USD23.5k/tonne). ANTM explained that there was some sales volume done in late 3Q23,
which would eventually spill over to 4Q23.

Fig 7. FeNi production and volumes Fig 8. 9M23 vs. 9M22 FeNi ASP
(USD/tonne)
(TNi) Sales vol. Production vol. 20,000 18,650
-19.2% YoY
9,000 18,000
8,000 16,000 15,067
7,000 14,000
6,000
12,000
5,000
10,000
4,000
8,000
3,000
2,000 6,000

1,000 4,000
- 2,000
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23

-
9M22 9M23

Source: Company, KISI Source: Company, KISI

ANTM’s 9M23 FeNi sales volume only achieved 54.0% of our previous FY23 forecast.
Thus, we cut FY23F FeNi sales volume projections by 18.5% to 21,356 tonnes and
subsequently adjusted down our FY24/25F sales volume projections by 20.0%/12.5%. Our
previous assumptions were quite aggressive mainly due to high expectations on the operation
of FeNi Haltim (13.5k tonnes of capacity). However, it turned out that the contribution from FeNi
Haltim is still minimal this year. Furthermore, we also cut our FY23/24/25F FeNi ASP by
16.8/18.0/15.5% as we revised our payability to NPI (8-12%) price forecasts.

Fig 9. FeNI volumes and ASP forecast changes

ANTM
Assumptions FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F FY24F FY25F
(new) (New) (New) (old) (old) (old)
FeNi sales
21,356 24,176 28,206 26,193 30,223 32,238
volumes
Change (%) -18.5% -20.0% -12.5%
FeNi ASP 15,277.5 14,550.0 14,744.0 18,360.0 17,748.0 17,442.0
Change (%) -16.8% -18.0% -15.5%
Source: Company, KISI

3
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

Surprise on nickel ore sales volume

ANTM nickel ore sales volume was strong in 3Q23 at 3.15 mn wmt (+11.5% QoQ/+83.7%
YoY), bringing 9M23 to 9.4 mn wmt (+98.1% YoY) exceeding our previous FY23F
assumptions of 8.23 mn wmt. We view surging nickel ore demand during 3Q23 period as
related to the shortage of nickel ore environment. Just to recall, in Aug2023, an illegal mining
case in Mandiodo block hit the headline. This led to delays in mining production/selling quota
approvals and resulted in some nickel smelters facing a tight supply of nickel ore. Considering
this condition, nickel miners have the opportunity to capitalize by charging a higher premium
over benchmark selling price of mineral nickel (HPM).

Fig 10. ANTM nickel ore production and volumes Fig 11. 9M23 vs. 9M22 ANTM nickel ore ASP
Sales vol. Production vol. (mn wmt)
(mn Wmt)
49.5 49.2
4.5
49.0
4.0
48.5 -5.6% YoY
3.5
3.0 48.0
2.5 47.5
2.0
47.0
1.5 46.5
46.5
1.0
0.5 46.0

- 45.5
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23

45.0
9M22 9M23

Source: Company, KISI Source: Company, KISI

However, ANTM mentioned that it would not be able to extract a greater premium from selling
nickel ore given the contractual obligations with its customers until the end of this year. Noting
that, contracts are usually made for 1 year long. In addition, given its State Owned Enterprise
(SoE) status, ANTM does not have the flexibility to charge premiums as there will be difficulties
in financial accounting. Based on our calculation using the company’s USDIDR average
rate, 9M23 nickel ore ASP was USD46.5/wmt or lower as compared to 6M23 ASP of
USD51.9/wmt. Interestingly, total nickel segment revenue in 3Q23 fell on QoQ, but EBITDA
margin of nickel segment widened by 16.2ppts.

Thus, we raised our assumptions of ANTM FY23-25F nickel ore sales volumes by
36.4/16.9/20.4% to 11.2mn/10.1mn/10.4mn wmt. However, we adjusted down our FY23-
25F nickel ore ASP by 4.9/4.8/4.8%.

Fig 12. Nickel ore volumes and ASP forecast changes

ANTM
Assumptions
FY23F (new) FY24F (New) FY25F (New) FY23F (old) FY24F (old) FY25F (old)
Nickel ore sales volumes (Wmt) 11,226,879 10,104,191 10,407,317 8,233,736 8,645,422 8,645,422
Change (%) 36.4% 16.9% 20.4%
Nickel ore ASP (USD/Wmt) 45.0 40.0 38.0 47.3 42.0 39.9
Change (%) -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%
Source: Company, KISI

4
Aneka Tambang
Company update

III. ANTM 3Q23 results snapshot

ANTM reported a 3Q23 net profit of IDR958.8 bn (+323.1% QoQ/-12.9% YoY), bringing 9M23
bottom-line to IDR2.8 tn (+8.4% YoY) or translating to 73.7%/77.5% of ours/cons. This is lower
than our expectation but in line with consensus FY23 projections. Strong QoQ earnings
growth was mainly attributed to segment mix. 3Q23 revenue fell by 8.2% QoQ/38.0% YoY
underpinned by lower FeNi ASP and sales volume, as well as fall in gold sales volumes. However,
ANTM successfully boosted nickel ore sales volumes in 3Q23 (+11.5% QoQ/+83.7% YoY) and
bauxite (+43.9% QoQ/+94.5% YoY). Hence, as nickel ore and bauxite business segment yield
higher margins relative to gold and FeNi, 3Q23 gross margin and EBITDA margin of ANTM
expanded to 20.1% (vs. 13.8% in 2Q23) and 14.9% (vs. 8.8% in 2Q23).

Fig 13. ANTM 9M23 financial results

ANTM - 9M23 result

in IDR bn 3Q22 2Q23 3Q23 QoQ YoY 9M22 9M23 YoY

Revenue 14,910.2 10,067.7 9,237.9 -8.2% -38.0% 33,683 30,899 -8.3%

Gross Profit 1,957.6 1,391.0 1,856.7 33.5% -5.2% 5,987 6,098 1.8%

Operating Profit 1,276.8 414.9 1,019.0 145.6% -20.2% 2,742 3,345 22.0%

EBITDA 1,477.1 881.4 1,376.1 56.1% -6.8% 3,346 4,375 30.8%

Net Income 1,100.9 226.6 958.8 323.1% -12.9% 2,627 2,849 8.4%

GPM 13.1% 13.8% 20.1% 17.8% 19.7%

OPM 8.6% 4.1% 11.0% 8.1% 10.8%

EBITDAM 9.9% 8.8% 14.9% 9.9% 14.2%

NPM 7.4% 2.3% 10.4% 7.8% 9.2%

ANTM operational data

Production vol. 3Q22 2Q23 3Q23 QoQ YoY 9M22 9M23 YoY

Gold (troy oz) 9,453 9,324 10,095 8.3% 6.8% 31,090 29,193 -6.1%

Ferronickel (Tni) 6,106 5,100 5,250 2.9% -14.0% 18,088 15,787 -12.7%

Nickel ore (W mt) 1,820,743 3,405,422 3,861,477 13.4% 112.1% 6,215,268 10,673,359 71.7%

Alumina (tonne) 41,982 36,604 36,928 0.9% -12.0% 115,875 114,524 -1.2%

Bauxite (W mt) 461,131 503,717 566,450 12.5% 22.8% 1,341,749 1,417,306 5.6%

Sales vol. 3Q22 2Q23 3Q23 QoQ YoY 9M22 9M23 YoY

Gold (troy oz) 400,663 202,067 191,362 -5.3% -52.2% 833,701 625,654 -25.0%

Ferronickel (Tni) 7,647 6,319 3,526 -44.2% -53.9% 17,269 14,132 -18.2%

Nickel ore (W mt) 1,712,835 2,822,395 3,146,069 11.5% 83.7% 4,752,314 9,413,038 98.1%

Alumina (tonne) 40,279 39,038 36,244 -7.2% -10.0% 114,422 108,351 -5.3%

Bauxite (W mt) 274,252 370,726 533,520 43.9% 94.5% 935,518 988,513 5.7%
Source: Company, KISI

5
Aneka Tambang
Company update

IV. Maintain BUY call with TP of IDRxx/share

We fine-tuned our top-line assumptions to account for higher gold prices, lower nickel ASP, and
sales volume. This resulted in a marginal cut in our FY23F revenue (-1.0%), and a higher FY24-
25F revenue by 1.6/5.3% as higher gold prices outpace down revision on nickel segments.
Subsequently, we slashed our FY23-25F EBITDA and net profit by 10.0%/25.9%/25.2% and
9.3%/27.6%/26.7%, respectively mostly due to different revenue mix between gold and nickel.
Note that, nickel produced higher margins relative to gold trading.

Fig 14. Financial forecast chages

ANTM
Assumptions
FY23F (new) FY24F (New) FY25F (New) FY23F (old) FY24F (old) FY25F (old)
Revenue (IDR bn) 40,884.3 40,953.6 41,973.3 41,289.8 40,312.5 39,868.3
Change -1.0% 1.6% 5.3%
EBITDA (IDR bn) 5,304.9 5,167.8 5,951.2 5,892.6 6,972.0 7,952.7
Change -10.0% -25.9% -25.2%
Net profit (IDR bn) 3,505.2 3,339.1 3,874.7 3,865.8 4,610.9 5,285.5
Change -9.3% -27.6% -26.7%

EBITDA margin 13.0% 12.6% 14.2% 14.3% 17.3% 19.9%

change -1.3% -4.7% -5.8%
Net margin 8.6% 8.2% 9.2% 9.4% 11.4% 13.3%
change -0.8% -3.3% -4.0%
Source: Company, KISI

We view for now relatively high gold prices and the expectation of an uptrend to continue next
year remains as the catalyst for ANTM. Meanwhile, pressure from lower nickel prices is
inevitable, but we believe the investors have priced in the negative sentiment. We see
commercialization of ANTM FeNi Haltim starting in 1Q24 to support the ANTM in terms of FeNi
sales volume growth. All in, we retain our BUY call on ANTM, with a lower TP of IDR2,200/sh
(from IDR2,880/sh). We rolled forward our valuation base to FY24F and we derived our
valuation from equally weighted DCF and EVEBITDA targets. ANTM now trades at 11.9x 24F
PE and 10.5x EVEBITDA. Key risk to our call include: 1) lower-than-expected metal prices 2)
delays on its RKEF and HPAL projects 3) changes in government regulation which negatively
impact the nickel industry. 4) Uncertainty of expenses that potentially arise from gold dispute

Fig 15. ANTM valuation

DCF-methodology EVEBITDA multiple
Enterprise Value (IDR bn) 52,917 24F EBITDA (IDR bn) 5,168
Net cash (IDR bn) (2,503) EVEBITDA multiple 9
Equity Value (IDR bn) 55,420 EV 48,061
Shares Outstanding (mn) 24,031 Net cash (IDR bn) 2,503
Target Price/share (IDR) 2,306 Equity Value (IDR bn) 50,564
Number of share (mn) 24,031
WACC 11.3% Target Price/share (IDR) 2,104

Equal weighted TP 2,205

Rounded TP 2,200
Source: Company, KISI

6
Aneka Tambang
Company update

Fig 16. Peers average

2023F 2024F
Market
EPS EPS
Bbg. Ticker cap PER EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Dvd yield PER EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Dvd yield
growth growth
(USDm) (x) (x) (x) (% ) (% ) (x) (x) (x) (% ) (% )
(% ) (% )
Indonesia
HRUM IJ EQUITY 1,257 (17) 4.9 3.3 1 27 4 (21) 6 4 1 19 3
ANTM IJ EQUITY 2,487 (8) 11.4 10.3 2 14 5 (5) 12 9 2 12 4
INCO IJ EQUITY 2,937 17 10.9 4.3 1 11 1 (19) 13 5 1 8 2
MBMA IJ EQUITY 4,162 (90) 38.5 24.1 4 4 N/A 100 19 10 3 10 N/A
NCKL IJ Equity 3,999 23 10.2 9.2 2 36 2 34 8 5 2 30 3
Weighted average Indonesia (19) 18 12 2 18 2 31 13 7 2 16 2

Nickel peers
NIC AU Equity 2,152 (38) 13 8 1 7 5 62 8 6 1 14 6
NIKL PM Equity 1,302 (8) 10 5 2 20 5 11 9 5 1 20 4
GLNCY US Equity 64,095 (61) 9 5 1 15 8 (5) 10 5 1 14 6
BHP US Equity 147,171 (28) 11 6 3 29 6 (1) 11 6 3 26 5
GMKN RM Equity 28,790 (68) 8 6 3 N/A 6 19 7 5 3 N/A 8
VALE N Equity 64,780 (42) 7 4 2 22 6 11 6 4 1 22 7
ER7 GR Equity 2,033 (74) 10 7 1 11 3 64 6 4 1 21 4
Weighted average peers (42) 10 5 2 21 6 4 9 5 2 20 6

Source: Bloomberg, KISI

7
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

Fig 17. Revenue composition 9M23 Fig 18. ANTM’s ROE

Others
Bauxite Ore 1.0%0.8% 18.0
Alumina 3.1% 16.0
14.0
Nickel ore 22.0% 12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Gold 62.4% 4.0
2.0
FeNi 10.7%
-
2019 2020 2021 2,022 2023F 2024F

Source: Company, KISI Source: Company, KISI

Fig 19. Bauxite production and volumes Fig 20. Alumina production and volumes

Production Sales Production Sales

(Wmt) (tonne)
700.0 45.0
40.0
600.0
35.0
500.0 30.0
400.0 25.0
300.0 20.0
15.0
200.0
10.0
100.0 5.0
- -
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23

Source: Company, KISI Source: Company, KISI

Fig 21. Nickel provides better margin Fig 22. ANTM EVEBITDA band

(x) EV/EBITDA Average +1 Std Dev

Nickel Precious metals
-1 Std Dev +2 Std Dev -2 Std Dev
20
60.0% 18

16
50.0%
14

40.0% 12

10
30.0%
8

20.0% 6

4
10.0%
2

0.0% 0
Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23

Source: Company, KISI Source: Bloomberg, KISI

8
Aneka Tambang
Company update

Company Overview
In 1997, Aneka Tambang conducted its initial public offering (IPO) by listing 35% of its shares
on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in order to raise money for the expansion of its
ferronickel business. In 1999, ANTM listed its shares in Australia as a foreign-exempt entity but
augmented its status to the more stringent ASX Listing in 2002.

Main business segments

1. Nickel business consists of ferronickel and nickel ore produced from the company’s nickel
mines in Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, and ferronickel plants in Southeast Sulawesi.
Ferronickel is a processed product, which contains about 80 percent iron and 20 percent
nickel. ANTM owns three ferronickel plants: FeNi I, FeNi II and FeNi III. Total capacity of
the three plants is 26,000 TNi, with an assumption of a peak load of 42MW and using nickel
ore with 2.38 percent content as feed. Around 70 percent of nickel is consumed for the
production of stainless steel, while the rest is used for various industrial purposes such as
batteries, electronics, aerospace applications, and land-based gas turbines.

2. Gold and refinery business segment consists of gold, silver, and precious metals
processing and refinery services. Gold and silver are produced through mining activities
and gold ore smelting to dore bullion. The gold ore mining is produced at two mining sites;
Pongkor (West Java) and Cibaliung (Banten), both being underground mines.

3. Bauxite and coal. Bauxite is produced from ANTM’s bauxite mine in Tayan (West
Kalimantan). In line with the company's strategy to enter the downstream business, ANTM
will process bauxite ore in Tayan by establishing a Chemical Grade Alumina (CGA) plant.
ANTM also plans to build a Smelter Grade Alumina (SGA) plant in Mempawah (West
Kalimantan).

Fig 1. ANTM’s main business

Source: Company, KISI

9
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

Fig 2. ANTM shareholders composition

Indonesian Government (MIND ID) Public: Domestic Public: Foreign

Public: Foreign
15%

Public:
Domestic
20%

Indonesian
Government
(MIND ID)
65%

Source: Company, KISI

Fig 3. ANTM operational maps

Source: Company

10
 Aneka Tambang
Company update

Balance sheet (IDRbn) Income statement (IDRbn)

FY-ending Dec. 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F FY-ending Dec. 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F

Current assets Sales 38,449 45,930 40,884 40,954 41,973

Cash & cash equivalent 5,089 4,476 6,632 6,832 8,257 COGS (32,087) (37,720) (32,723) (32,979) (33,156)
Accounts & other receivables 1,448 1,833 1,460 1,462 1,499 Gross profit 6,362 8,211 8,161 7,974 8,818
Inventories 3,107 2,906 2,808 2,619 2,636 SG&A expense (3,621) (4,269) (3,802) (3,809) (3,904)
Others 2,084 2,480 2,207 2,211 2,266
Operating profit 2,741 3,942 4,359 4,166 4,914
Non-current assets
Financial income 90 85 126 130 157
Fixed assets 18,138 17,712 19,035 20,289 20,716
Financial expense (359) (381) (548) (548) (552)
Other non-current assets 3,050 4,230 3,954 4,348 4,775
Other expense 58 74 66 66 67
Total assets 32,916 33,637 36,095 37,761 40,148
Other non-operating profit - - - - -
Current liabilities
Income (loss) from JV - - - - -
Accounts Payable 1,399 1,302 1,172 1,181 1,187
Accrued expense 723 778 675 680 684 Earnings before tax 3,044 5,215 4,737 4,512 5,236

Current portion of LT debt - - - - - Income taxes (1,182) (1,394) (1,232) (1,173) (1,361)
Others 4,440 3,892 4,783 4,777 4,903 Net profit 1,862 3,821 3,505 3,339 3,875
Non-current liabilities Non-controlling interest (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
LT debt & financial liabilities 3,703 2,082 2,182 2,182 2,182
Other comprehensive profit - - - - -
Deferred tax liabilities 127 65 58 58 60
Total comprehensive profit - - - - -
Other non-current liabilities 1,686 1,806 1,919 1,989 2,034 Total comprehensive profit of
- - - - -
Total liabilities 12,079 9,925 10,788 10,868 11,050 controlling interest
EBITDA 3,632 4,800 5,305 5,168 5,951
Controlling interest
Capital stock 6,338 6,338 6,338 6,338 6,338
- - - - - Key financial data
Other Reserves - - - - - FY-ending Dec. 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Retained earnings 10,272 13,143 14,737 16,324 18,529 per share data (IDR)
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 EPS 77 159 146 139 161
BPS 867 987 1,053 1,119 1,211
Shareholders' equity 20,837 23,712 25,307 26,893 29,098
DPS 17 39 80 73 69
Growth (%)
Sales growth 40 19 (11) 0 2
OP growth 35 44 11 (4) 18
Cash flow (IDRbn) NP growth 62 105 (8) (5) 16
EBITDA growth 16 32 11 (3) 15
FY-ending Dec. 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Profitability (%)
C/F from operating 2,943 4,562 4,664 4,531 4,904
OP margin 7.1 8.6 10.7 10.2 11.7
Net profit 1,862 3,821 3,505 3,339 3,875 NP margin 4.8 8.3 8.6 8.2 9.2
Depreciation 891 858 946 1,002 1,037 EBITDA margin 9.4 10.5 13.0 12.6 14.2
ROA 5.7 11.4 9.7 8.8 9.7
Net incr. in W/C 124 (56) 138 190 7
ROE 8.9 16.1 13.9 12.4 13.3
Others 66 (62) 74 (1) (15) Dividend yield 1.0 2.3 4.8 4.4 4.2
C/F from investing (856) (868) (2,177) (2,199) (1,452) Dividend payout ratio 35.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Stability
CAPEX (831) (824) (2,122) (2,130) (1,365)
Net debt (IDR bn) 782 (1,468) (2,305) (2,503) (3,900)
Restricted cash (25) (44) (55) (69) (87) Int.-bearing debt/equity (%) 28 13 17 16 15
C/F from financing (2,036) (3,765) (373) (1,682) (1,617) Valuation (X)
PE 21.4 10.4 11.4 11.9 10.3
Chg. in equity 26 (19) 0 0 0
PB 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Chg. in debts (1,660) (2,815) 1,538 71 52
EV/EBITDA 15.9 11.6 10.3 10.5 8.9
Dividends (402) (931) (1,910) (1,753) (1,670)

Others - - - - -

C/F from others - - - - -

Increase in cash 1,105 (613) 2,155 200 1,425

11
Aneka Tambang
Company update

Disclaimer

This Research Report ("Report") is prepared by PT Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia, or its subsidiaries or its affiliates ("KISI").

By receiving this Report, you confirm that: (a) you have previously requested KISI to deliver this Report to you and you are legally entitled to
receive the Report in accordance with Indonesian prevailing laws and regulations, and (b) you have fully read, understood and agreed to be
bound by and comply with the terms of this Report as set out below. Your failure to comply with the terms below may constitute a violation of
law.

All the material presented in this Report is under copyright to KISI. This Report is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients
of KISI. This Report is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential and that you will maintain its confidentiality at all
times. None of the parts of this material, nor its contents, may be copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form of by any means or altered in
any way, or transmitted to, or distributed to any other party without prior written consent of KISI.

This Report is based on the information obtained by KISI from sources believed to be reliable, however KISI do not make representations as to
their accuracy, completeness or correctness. This Report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no
circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. KISI
accepts no liability for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from the use of the material
presented in this Report and further communication given or relied in relation to this document.

This Report is intended for circulation among KISI’ clients only and does not consider any specific investment objectives, financial situation and
the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this Report. The entire content of this Report is not and cannot not be construed or
considered as an offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to enter into any transaction (including trading and hedging) relating to the
securities, other financial instruments, and other form of investments issued or offered by the company(ies) covered in this Report. It is your own
responsibility to: (a) independently evaluate the content of this Report, (b) consider your own individual investment objectives, financial situation
and particular needs, and (c) consult your own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before
participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this Report.

This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Past performance and analysis should not be taken
as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
Information, valuations, opinions, forecasts, and estimates contained in this report reflects a judgment at its original date of publication by KISI
and are subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed or it may be incomplete.

The views expressed in this Report reflect the personal views of the individual analyst(s) at KISI about the securities or company(ies) mentioned
in the Report and the compensation of the individual analyst(s), is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the performance of KISI’ activities.
KISI prohibits the individual analyst(s) who prepared this Report from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment
banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company (including those covered in the Report).
However, the individual analyst(s) may receive compensation based on the scope of his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of
his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations.

In reviewing this Report, you should be aware that any or all of the above activities of KISI and its officers, directors and employees, among other
things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. KISI and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the
preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with
the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding,
or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may
make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. KISI may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the
information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published.

Please note that the securities of the company(ies) covered in this Report might not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of
investors. The availability of those securities and your eligibility to invest in those securities will be subject to, among others, the prevailing laws
of the relevant jurisdiction covering those securities. Furthermore, the value and income of any of the securities covered in this Report can fall as
well as rise and an investor (including you) may get back less than invested. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may
be incurred.

PT Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia is Securities Company Member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, licensed, registered and supervised
by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan).

©Copyright 2019, PT Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia

12