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(U) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
(U) This report responds to the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023, which called for the U.S.
Intelligence Community (IC) to declassify information relating to potential links between the
Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report
outlines the IC’s understanding of the WIV, its capabilities, and the actions of its personnel
leading up to and in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report does not address the
merits of the two most likely pandemic origins hypotheses, nor does it explore other biological
facilities in Wuhan other than the WIV. A classified annex to this report includes information
that was necessary to exclude from the unclassified portion of this report in order to protect
sources and methods, but the information contained in the annex is consistent with the
unclassified assessments contained in this report.
(U) This report was drafted by the National Intelligence Officer for Weapons of Mass
Destruction and Proliferation and coordinated with the IC.
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(U) IC ASSESSMENTS ON COVID-19 ORIGINS
(U) In March, the IC updated its analysis on core intelligence questions related to
COVID-19 origins, to include whether the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2—the virus
that causes COVID-19—was the result of natural exposure to an infected animal or a laboratory-
associated incident. Variations in IC analytic views on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic
largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific
publications and intelligence and scientific gaps. All agencies continue to assess that both a
natural and laboratory-associated origin remain plausible hypotheses to explain the first human
infection.
• The National Intelligence Council and four other IC
agencies assess that the initial human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was
caused by natural exposure to an infected animal that carried SARS-CoV-2 or a close
progenitor, a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-
CoV-2.
• The Department of Energy and the Federal Bureau of
Investigation assess that a laboratory-associated incident was the most likely cause of
the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2, although for different reasons.
• The Central Intelligence Agency and another agency remain unable to
determine the precise origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, as both hypotheses rely on
significant assumptions or face challenges with conflicting reporting.
• Almost all IC agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not genetically
engineered. Most agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not laboratory-adapted;
some are unable to make a determination. All IC agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2
was not developed as a biological weapon.
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and that the coronaviruses known to be used were too distantly related to have led to
the creation of SARS-CoV-2.
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• Some of the WIV’s genetic engineering projects on coronaviruses
involved techniques that could make it difficult to detect intentional changes. A 2017
dissertation by a WIV student showed that reverse genetic cloning techniques—which
are standard techniques used in advanced molecular laboratories—left no traces of
genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses.
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(U) WIV RESEARCHERS WHO FELL ILL IN FALL 2019
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms;
some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues
to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s
origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and
some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices,
those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a high-
containment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and
health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in high-
containment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were
hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher
may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory
medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early
2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health
Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who
leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab
employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
While several WIV researchers fell mildly ill in Fall 2019, they
experienced a range of symptoms consistent with colds or allergies with accompanying
symptoms typically not associated with COVID-19, and some of them were confirmed to have
been sick with other illnesses unrelated to COVID-19. While some of these researchers had
historically conducted research into animal respiratory viruses, we are unable to confirm if any
of them handled live viruses in the work they performed prior to falling ill.
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(U) APPENDIX A: DEFINITIONS
(U) Antibody: A protein produced during an immune response to a part of an infectious agent
called an antigen.
(U) Backbone: A genetic sequence used as a chassis upon which to build synthetic constructs,
such as those used for cloning, protein expression, and production.
(U) Biosafety: The application of knowledge, techniques, and equipment to prevent personal,
laboratory, and environmental exposure to potentially infectious agents or biohazards. Four
Biosafety levels (BSL) define the containment conditions under which biological agents can be
safely manipulated. These standards range from moderate safety requirements for low-risk
agents (BSL-1), to the most stringent controls for high-risk agents (BSL-4). China’s standards
range from P1–4.
(U) Biosecurity: The protection, control of, and accountability for biological agents, toxins, and
biological materials and information to prevent unauthorized possession, loss, theft, misuse,
diversion, and accidental or intentional release.
(U) Coronavirus: A family of common viruses that can infect humans and/or animals. The
human illness caused by most coronaviruses usually lasts a short time and presents symptoms
consistent with the “common cold,” such as a runny nose, sore throat, cough, and fever.
(U) DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid): A molecule that carries an organism’s genetic blueprint for
growth, development, function, and reproduction.
(U) Gain-of-function: The IC considers this as a research method that involves manipulating an
organism’s genetic material to impart new biological functions that could enhance virulence or
transmissibility (e.g., genetically modifying a virus to expand its host range, transmissibility, or
severity of illness). The IC assesses that genetic engineering, genetic modification, and
laboratory-adaptation can all be used for gain-of-function experiments, but are not inherently so.
(U) Genetically engineered or genetically modified viruses are intentionally altered, created,
or edited using biotechnologies, such as Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic
Repeat (CRISPR), DNA recombination, or reverse genetics. These viruses have intentional,
targeted edits to the genome designed to achieve specific results, but unintentional genomic
changes may also occur.
(U) Genome: The genetic material of an organism. It consists of DNA (and sometimes RNA for
viruses).
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(U) Genome sequencing: The process of determining the DNA or RNA sequence of an
organism’s genome, or its “genetic code.” An organism’s genetic code is the order in which the
four nucleotide bases—adenine, cytosine, guanine, and thymine—are arranged to direct the
sequence of the 20 different amino acids in the proteins that determine inherited traits.
(U) Intermediate species/host: An organism that can be infected with a pathogen from a
reservoir species and passes the pathogen to another host species; infection is not sustained in
this population.
(U) Laboratory-adapted viruses have undergone natural, random mutations through human-
enabled processes in a laboratory—such as repeated passage through animals or cells—that put
pressure on the virus to more rapidly evolve. Specific changes to the viral genome are not
necessarily anticipated in these processes, though the virus can be expected to gain certain
characteristics, such as the ability to infect a new species. This is a common technique used in
public health research of viruses. We consider directed evolution to be under laboratory
adaptation.
(U) Naturally occurring viruses have not been altered in a laboratory. Viruses commonly
undergo random mutations as part of the evolutionary process and can continue to change over
time; mutations may enable a virus to adapt to its environment, such as evading host immune
responses and promoting viral replication.
(U) Outbreak: A sudden increase in occurrences of a disease in a particular time and place.
Outbreaks include epidemics, which is a term that is reserved for infectious diseases that occur
in a confined geographical area. Pandemics are near-global disease outbreaks.
(U) Pangolin: An African and Asian mammal that has a body covered in overlapping scales.
Pangolins are a natural reservoir of coronaviruses and researchers are investigating their potential
role as an intermediate host for the COVID-19 virus.
(U) Pathogen: A bacterium, virus, or other microorganism that can cause disease.
(U) Progenitor Virus: A virus that is closely related enough—more than 99 percent–to SARS-
CoV-2 to have been its direct ancestor or plausible immediate origin of the outbreak. The closest
known relative to SARS-CoV-2 is only about 96 percent similar; to put this into context, humans
and chimps are about 99 percent similar, demonstrating the significant differences even at this
similarity.
(U) Reverse genetics: A process for determining the natural function of genes by introducing
mutations and studying the effect of those mutations.
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(U) RNA (ribonucleic acid): A molecule essential for gene coding, decoding, regulation, and
expression. The genome of certain viruses, including coronaviruses, is made of RNA rather than
DNA.
(U) Virus: A replicating piece of genetic material—DNA or RNA—and associated proteins that
use the cellular machinery of a living cell to reproduce.
(U) Zoonosis: An infection or a disease that is transmissible from animals to humans under
natural conditions. A zoonotic pathogen may be viral, bacterial, or parasitic, and can sometimes
be transmitted through insects, such as mosquitoes.
(U) Zoonotic spillover: An initial infection or disease that is caused by contact between an
animal and human under natural conditions.