1g Pr, = (“)ptq* = binomial probability number of times for a specific outcome within n trials number of combinations = probability of success on a single trial probability of failure on a single trial number of trialsThe Binomial Formula For a binomial random variable with probability of success, p, and n trials... F(z) = P(X =a) nl z(n—« Prien) for = 01,2). nPrior Convictions Let's use the example from the previous page investigating the number of prior convictions for prisoners at a state prison at which there were 500 prisoners. Define the “success” to be the event that a prisoner has no prior convictions. Find p and 1 — p. Answer Let Success = no priors (0) Let Failure = riors (1, 2, 3, or 4) Looking back on our example, we can find that: p=0.16 1—p=1—0.16 = 0.84 Verify by p+ (1 —p)Crime Survey An FBI survey shows that about 80% of all property crimes go unsolved. Suppose that in your town 3 such crimes are committed and they are each deemed independent of each other. What is the probability that 1 of 3 of these crimes will be solved?First, we must determine if this situation satisfies ALL four conditions of a binomial experiment: 1. Does it satisfy a fixed number of trials? 2. Does it have only 2 outcomes? 3. Do all the trials have the same probability of success? 4, Are all crimes independent?First, we must determine if this situation satisfies ALL four conditions of a binomial experiment: 1. Does it satisfy a fixed number of trials? YES the number of trials is fixed at 3 (n = 3.) 2. Does it have only 2 outcomes? YES (Solved and unsolved) 3. Do all the trials have the same probability of success? YES (p = 0.2) 4. Are all crimes independent? YES (Stated in the description.)To find the probability that only 1 of the 3 crimes will be solved we first find the probability that one of the crimes would be solved. With three such events (crimes) there are three sequences in which only one is solved: * Solved First, Unsolved Second, Unsolved Third = (0.2)(0.8\ 0.8) = 0.128 * Unsolved First, Solved Second, Unsolved Third = (0.8)(0.2\(0.8) = 0.128 * Unsolved First, Unsolved Second, Solved Third = (0.8)(0.8)(0.2) = 0.128We add these 3 probabilities up to get 0.384, Looking at this from a formula standpoint, we have three possible sequences, each involving one solved and two unsolved events. Putting this together gives us the following: 3(0.2)(0.8)? = 0.384Crime Survey Continued... For the FBI Crime Survey example, what is the probability that at least one of the crimes will be solved?Answer Here we are looking to solve P(X > 1). There are two ways to solve this problem: the long way and the short way. The long way to solve for P(X > 1). This would be to solve P(x = 1) + P(« = 2) + P(x = 3) as follows:P(z=1)= J pi 21(0.8)? = 0.384 1!2! 3! P(t =2)= me (0.8)' = 0.096 3! 3 P(a = 3) = ——0.2°(0.8)° = 0.008 3!0!We add up all of the above probabilities and get 0.488...OR...we can do the short way by using the complement rule. Here the complement to P(X > 1) is equal to 1 ~ P(X < 1) Which is equal to 1 — P(X = 0). We have carried out this solution below.1-P(@ <1) = LP =0) 3! ' = 1-——__0.29(1-0.2 1 a poet. ie =1-1(1)(0.8) =10.512 = 0.488In such a situation where three crimes happen, what is the expected value and standard deviation of crimes that remain unsolved? Here we apply the formulas for expected value and standard deviation of a binomial. #= EX) var(x) = 3(0.8)(0.2) = 0.48 as SD(X) = v0.48 ~ 0.6928 Note: X can only take values 0, 1, 2, .., n, but the expected value (mean) of X may be some value other than those that can be assumed by X.Cross-Ferti ing Cross-fertilizing a red and a white flower produces red flowers 25% of the time. Now we cross-fertilize five pairs of red and white flowers and produce five offspring. Find the probability that there will be no red-flowered plants in the five offspring.Answer Y = # of red flowered plants in the five offspring. Here, the number of red-flowered plants has a binomial distribution with n = 5, p = 0.25. P(Y =0) = io aha = 1(0.25)°(0.75)* = 0.237Find the probability that there will be four or more red-flowered plants.P(¥ is 4 or more) = P(Y = 4) + P(Y =5) 5! 5! ad Tea =p ae- -p)’ 5 - (0.25) - (0.75) + (0.25)° = 0.015 + 0.001 = 0.016Of the five cross-fertilized offspring, how many red-flowered plants do you expect?w= 5-0.25 = 1.25. What is the standard deviation of Y, the number of red-flowered plants in the five cross-fertilized offspring?V5-0.25 - 0.75 97