ASSIGNMENT 2

RESPONSE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

DIKSHA TIWARI (S5210086)

RASHID KHAN (S5152104)
MALAV PATEL (S5672581)
For this exercise we will apply Sensitivity Response Analysis (RSA), estimating the effect of several input
parameters on the heat exchanger, and compare the result with a Monte Carlo (MC) method by using
MATLAB.

Stochastic parameters

Group ṁhot [kg/s] ṁcold [kg/s] Thot [K] Tcold [K] Heat exchanger type
6 (μ=590, 135 (μ=525, (μ=310, One shell pass
σ=2) σ=2) σ=1)

Parameter Unit Value

U [W/m K]2
20 · 103
A [m2] 10
cp,hot [J/kg K] 1.005 · 103
cp,cold [J/kg K] 4.180 · 103
 Task 1
Under the first assignment, we should estimate the mean value, standard deviation, and PDF of the input
data pertaining to a heat exchanger with 10^5 samples.
To get the output data, we have written the code of the output function (heat exchanger), that consists of the
input data mass flow of cold and hot fluid and temperature of hot flow as the output. In our case we are
looking at a One shell Pass.
First input parameter is mass flow rate of the HOT liquid, which has mean value =590, sigma =2. Second
input HOT fluid inlet temperatures value is mean= 525 and sigma=2 and third output parameters are COLD
fluid inlet temperatures, which have mean value =310, sigma=1.

The PDF below shows the average value (µ) and standard deviation (σ) related to the heat exchanger,
derived from 10^5 samples:

Figure 1: The PDF of the heat exchanger for 10^5

samples

Consistent with our program output, the output parameter, the heat exchanger, which has a mean value =
1.7808e+04, sigma = 185.4443, Q Exchanger = 1.754942418595840e+04 was taken from the normal
distribution. Since Figure 1. we can see that the heat distribution is a normal distribution.
 Task 2

Find a function that fits the PDF well and report its characteristic parameters.

Comparison Table of Normal, Log-Logistic and Burr Distribution

Distribution Normal Log-Logistic Burr

-664169 -665097
Log Likelihood -2565.96
-Inf < y < Inf 0 < y < Inf
Domain 0 < y < Inf
17807.7 17806.4
Mean 47.5852
34389.6 36867
Variance 10.5693

17834.1 2.49562
Mu 17807.7 0.586426 3.8602 0.0020757 Alpha
Paramete
r Estimate c 159.138 0.826557
Std. Err. Sigm
185.444 0.414669 0.037562 0.000984494
a k 1.17549 0.0167304

mu sigma mu sigma Alpha c c

A
Estimated l
mu 0.343896 -3.26656e-16 mu 4.30855e-06 -1.99885e-08 p 6.22813 -1.74965 0.0405755
covariance of h
parameter a
estimates c -1.74965 0.683197 -0.0119768
sig
sigma -3.26656e-16 0.171951 -1.99885e-08 9.69228e-07 0.000279906
ma k 0.0405755 -0.0119768
The function which fits well the pdf is normal distribution since its mean is approximate when compared with the mean
and its variance is less when compared with other function. Also, the curve fits the data very well.
 Task 3

The goal of the second task is to RSA with the following steps [0.01, 0.1, 1, 10].

Since for step 1 the mean and sigma of heat exchanger is NaN and also for step 10 the values are in complex so both this
step compromises the consistency of the results and are replaced.
Since 0.01 and 0.1 steps have no such values that cause inconsistency or compromises the result.
 Task 4

In the fourth task you must calculate the mean and standard deviation for each step, plot the PDF, evaluate
the result, and compare with the MC which steps give more accurate results. Method RSA is based its
calculation algorithm on the knowledge of the properties of the main probability input variables (mean and
standard deviation).

This study evaluated the output heat exchanger variables using a first order and second order formula and
sensitivity formula

Figure 2: Heat exchanger sensitivity for 0.01 step.

sigma_Q_exchanger 0.01 185.200340261369

m_Q_exchanger 0.01 17807.0845886259
Figure 3: Heat exchanger sensitivity for 0.1 step

sigma_Q_exchanger 0.1 185.200344092673

m_Q_exchanger 0.1 1.780708459155763e+04

sigma_Q_exchanger for 1 NaN + NaNi

m_Q_exchanger for 1 NaN + NaNi
 Figure 4: Heat exchanger sensitivity for 10 steps

sigma_Q_exchanger for 10 1.846465157144084e+02 - 2.779654550936633e+00i

m_Q_exchanger for 10 1.780711014683805e+04 - 9.619723057998159e-03i
Figure 5: Heat exchanger sensitivity for 10 steps.

We can see from the results of the mean and standard deviation of the output variable (heat exchanger) that
the results are similar for each step in the RSA method, except for step 1 in which there is no result of the
mean and standard deviation of the heat exchanger and there is no PDF. Step 10 shows complex results of
mean and standard deviation, therefore step 10 is not acceptable. But the 0.1 steps produce more accurate
results compared to MC.
As mean and standard deviation is very close when compared with Monte Carlo.
 Task Five

have to perform a sensitivity analysis to understand which parameters have the strongest impact on the performance of
the heat exchanger

 However, MCs doesn’t allow to evaluate which input has the strongest impact on the monitored outputs
 Sensitivity analysis should be performed.

The goal of the fourth task is to analyze the results of the sensitivity analysis by plotting them on an
appropriately plotted graph.

Sensitivity of q exchanger for 0.01

-0.00925049552210422. 2.44186046511634 -1.44186046511633

nominal_out_cost
1.780710272356003e+04
 sensitivity_Q_exchanger for 0.1
-0.00927152304964224 2.44186046511628 -1.44186046511629

nominal_out_cost
1.780710272356003e+04

sensitivity_Q_exchanger for 1
NaN + NaNi 2.44186046511628 + 0.00000000000000i -1.44186046511628 + 0.00000000000000i

nominal_out_cost
1.780710272356003e+04

As we can see from the figure that Parameter m HOT and T_hot_in has a negative correlation whereas T_cold_in has a
positive correlation with the heat exchanger.

T_COLD_IN has the highest impact on the heat exchanger.

Pressure drop on hot has a very small impact on heat exchanger Pressure drop on Temperature hot has higher impact on
heat exchanger.
 sensitivity_Q_exchanger for 10
-0.338696218972996 + 0.415890594300286i 2.44186046511628+0.00000000000000i 1.44186046511628 + 0.00000000000000i

nominal_out_cost
1.780710272356003e+04
 Comparison Table of Sensitivity result for each input parameter and step

Steps Mass Flow Rate of hot Fluid Mass Flow Rate of cold inlet Temperature Hot fluid inlet temperature

0.01 -0.00925049552210422 2.44186046511634 -1.44186046511633

0.1 2.44186046511628 -1.44186046511629

-0.00927152304964224

-1.44186046511628 +
1 NaN + NaNi 2.44186046511628 + 0.00000000000000i
0.00000000000000i
-0.338696218972996 + -1.44186046511628 +
10 2.44186046511628 + 0.00000000000000i
0.415890594300286i 0.00000000000000i

The table shows that the sensitivity of the heat exchanger is not so much different when compared the
RSA method 0.1, and the step 0.01 data are relatively like each other.