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1. NAME OF THE BOOK

The Next 100 Years
2. NAME OF THE AUTHOR
George Friedman
3. YEAR OF PUBLICATION
Published in 2009
4. PUBLISHER NAME
Double Day, USA
5. COUNTRY IN WHICH BOOK IS PUBLISHED
The book was first published in USA in 2009. It was published in Great Britain
in later that year.
6. THEME OF THE BOOK
In this book by George Friedman, he turns his eye on the future. The writer
offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes that can be expected
around the world during the twenty-first century. George Friedman explains
where and why future wars will erupt and how they will be fought. The writer
in this book goes in detail about the future wars and their results. He narrates
which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how
modern technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new
century.
7. DETAILS OF CHAPTERS
a. No of Chapters
13
b. Brief of Each Chapter
(1) The Dawn of the American Age
In this chapter writer builds a case that US is just at the beginning of
its power. This power will increase with time. He supports his stance
by statistics and geopolitical arguments. US has 4% of world
population and it produces 26% of all goods and services. It is among
the largest energy producer. US has unmatched military power and it
controls all the oceans. Geography is also an edge for USA as it is
uninvasionable. The writer also states that USA is at the beginning
of its power so is barbaric in nature.

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(2) Earthquake: The US-Jihadist War

In this chapter writer talks about US-Jihadist wars and geopolitical
goals of USA. According to the writer US has success thwarted the
threat of Al Qaeda. According to the writer post cold war scenario
has left the region with ethnic and sectarian divides ultimately
benefitting USA. Writer has discussed geo-political goals of USA.
These goals are as follows
(a) Complete domination of North America by USA
(b) Elimination of any threat to the US by any nation-state in the
western hemisphere
(c) Complete control of the maritime approaches to US by US
Navy to preclude any possibility of invasion
(d) Complete domination of world’s oceans to further secure US
physical safety and guarantee control over the international
trading system
(e) Prevention of any other nation from challenging US global
naval power
(3) Population, Computers and Culture Wars
In this chapter writer discusses population, computers and culture
of USA and ascertains that all these factors will contribute in the
growing power of USA. Writer is of the view that birthrates all over
the world are decreasing and the population explosion will stop by
mid 21st century. Writer is of the view that economic necessity is no
more a consideration in marriage and has resultantly reduced the
importance of children in a marriage. It has certain political
consequences as gender role distinctions are diminishing. Writer
talks about the superiority of American culture. Computers are an
important force in shaping American culture. Computers are
controlled by Americans and are used by Americans to disseminate
American propaganda.
(4) The New Fault Lines
In this chapter writer has penned five future fault lines for US.

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(a) Pacific Basin is a fault line for USA as it is the main trade route
of USA.
(b) Islamic immigration and clash with Europe is also a major fault
line for USA.
(c) Ultimate framework of Europe is also a cause of concern for US.
(d) Islamic world is another major fault line for USA. It is expected
that Turkey owing to its modern economy will emerge as the
leader of the Muslim World.
(e) US-Mexico relations is a fault line. A major conflict in the
border areas of the two countries is also a possibility.
(5) China 2020: Paper Tiger
According to the writer China is an important country. However,
author is of the view that China cannot sustain its current growth
rates. China is held together by money and not ideology.
According to the writer the impoverished west and internal stresses
on Chinese economy will eventually lead to civil war. According
to the writer China will be consumed by its internal troubles and
will not be able to carry foreign policy adventures.
(6) Russia 2020: Rematch
Russia and Europe have always been at loggerheads with each
other. Russia is blessed with natural resources and vast amount of
land. Major question in 2020s will be about the territorial limits of
Russia. Russia will become wealthy overtime which will give them
additional resources to beef up their military. Russia has to control
Eastern Europe and Central Asian Republics if it wants to protect
its existing frontiers. Writer predicts that Poland will be pitched
against Russia by the USA by providing them with advance and
state of the art military technology. It will give Poland an edge in
the fight where Russia wishes to expand, and USA aims on
containing it. US support for Poland will increase. Eastern Europe
contrary to the mainland Europe will attack Russia. A Russia
which will have a declining population will be broken up by
Eastern Europe.
(7) American Power and the Crisis of 2030

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In this chapter writer has divided American history into four

cycles. Each cycle is of 50 years. In ach cycle of American history
there is a core issue and the cycle revolve around the resolution of
this core issue. The writer also predicts a 5th cycle and the issues
faced during the 5th cycle. These cycles are as follows
(a) First cycle revolved around the exploration of new territories.
(b)Second cycle revolves around the change of economic system
and changes that came with it.
(c) Third cycle dealt with Great Depression and the middle class
that emerged because of great depression.
(d)Fourth cycle talks about low income, high taxes and the taxes
favoring the supply side.
(e) Fifth cycle will deal with a demographic issue. Where old will
consume more and produce less resulting in a lower work force,
increasing energy prices and factors leading to immigration.
(8) A New World Emerges
This chapter talks about the emergence of a new world order.
According to the writer three new major states will emerge namely
Japan, Turkey and Poland. Japan will emerge as a major state as it
will resolve its population issues and will adhere to militarization.
Turkey will be a major state owing to its modern economy,
superior military and rubble of Ottoman hegemony. Poland will
rise from Russian Ashes and will ally with Eastern European
countries.
(9) The 2040s: Prelude to War
In this chapter author pens down the details of prewar era and the
factors that will lead the world into a global war. According to the
author Eurasia will become a poacher’s paradise. Japan will create
its hegemony over South China Sea, South East Asian region and
maritime region of Russia. Turkey will squeeze into North
Caucasus and beyond. This will pose grave threat to US existence
in the sea. This era will be marred by skirmishes and conflicts. US
will try to stop the economic surge of Japan and Turkey by
blockade and treaties.

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(10) Preparing for War

According to the writer Japan and Turkey will make a surprise
attack at one of the space stations of USA. These space stations
will be equipped with space surveillance technology. This attack
will result into an unprecedented rage by USA. USA will use
hypersonic missiles and battle stars for retaliatory attack. USA will
be the victor and will establish an even greater supremacy over
globe.
(11) World War: A Scenario
In this chapter writer pens down a chronological set of events
leading to the third global war. According to the author USA,
Poland, Eastern Europe, Britain, India and China will be in one
bloc. Turkey, Japan, Germany and France will be in the other
bloc. US and its allies despite initial losses will win the third
global war. USA will consolidate its power at the end of the
global war.
(12) The 2060s: A Golden Decade
The war will be ended by a treaty. Treaty will give USA
exclusive rights to militarize space. Turkey will continue to
remain leader of Islamic world. Franco-German defeat by the
Poles will shift power in the European continent to the east. In
this decade there will be an energy revolution. Huge space solar
cells will be established. Power generated at these stations will be
transmitted to earth through high electromagnetic beams. Base
stations will be established on earth which will transmit energy.
(13) 2080: The United States, Mexico, and The Struggle for the
Global Heartland
In this chapter the author carries the viewpoint of Alfred Thayer
Mahan according to which the country which controls world
oceans controls the world. The author states that USA will
control the space and will control oceans because of its
hegemony over space. The writer is of the view that Mexico will
pose a threat to the territorial integrity of USA. USA is a melting
pot where all the cultures are assimilated into the culture of USA.

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However, Mexican immigrants will behave differently as they are

not separated from their motherland by oceans. In 2080s USA
will go through technological advancement. Millions of
immigrants will lose their jobs. Mexican immigrants will be the
major victim. These immigrants will be sent back to their
motherland, but Mexico will refuse to accept them. American
step of sending back of Mexican immigrants will be perceived by
many as ethnic cleansing. This will spark protests and civil unrest
in the southern US states. 22nd century will see the ultimate result
of this conflict.

8. ANALYSIS:
a. Analysis of Author

George Friedman is a geopolitical forecaster. Author is also a strategist of

international relations. Author has also remained the Chairman of
Stratfor. It is a private intelligence publishing and consulting firm. The
writer has vast experience and has regularly briefed senior commanders
in armed services. Writer is well versed in the topic he has discussed in
this book. He has professionally forecast the future of conflicts in the
past.

b. Analysis of the Book

(1) Theme
The book tells in detail about the outlook of international politics in
the 21st century. He tells about the future wars and tussles. The
technology used in these wars and conflicts. However, it can easily be
extracted that writer seems to be on an agenda. He has effectively
propagated the American propaganda that USA is going to remain the
only super power in the 21st century and its power will only grow over
time. Contrary to the popular belief writer predicts a unipolar world
for 21st century.
(2) Content
(a)Prediction of future is an uphill task. Future to the micro detail
cannot be predicted. However, writer has predicted future up to
the minutest details. It is owing to this factor that the book takes

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the shape of a fiction novel instead of a predictive analysis.

(b)Author has termed USA as a barbaric power in its initial phase.

It is due to this factor that US indulges into unnecessary conflicts.
Writer has termed it as a power of USA. However, it can easily
be seen that indulgence in unnecessary conflicts will be
detrimental for US hegemony. Unnecessary conflicts will only
erode US power over time.
(c)Writer has termed computers as the strength of the US.
According to the writer US uses this system to disseminate its
culture. However, it is equally true for other advanced countries.
As they can also use computers to propagate their culture.
Therefore, this factor does not provide USA with any cutting-
edge advantage.
(d)Writer terms Japan as one of the global powers with one of the
world’s most advanced military. Japan is a great economic
power. However, it is not a military power. It has no military and
has no militarization plans. Even if it starts today it will take
decades for Japan to challenge the military might of USA. As for
Poland, writer suggests that Poland will become a formidable
power that will poach Russian. The hypothesis seems far-fetched
and flawed as it is not backed by any strong argument.
(e)Technology is progressing at a fast pace. However, the idea of
base station on moon seems farfetched as it is not backed by any
scientific fact.
(f)Disintegration of Russia in the 2020s seems implausible and
impossible. As Russia is growing strong under the leadership of
Vladimir Putin. It has increased its influence in the middle East.
Its sphere of influence has increased in 21st century.
9. LESSONS LEARNT FOR INT COMMUNITY
Following are the lessons learnt for intelligence community.
a. It is important for an intelligence operator to look at the bigger
picture. Intelligence operator should take things into perspective.

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While analyzing the situation he should not only keep his Area of
Operations (AOO) in consideration but the whole region.
b. In intelligence craft nothing is unimportant. It should be kept in mind
that every piece of information is important.
c. Human intelligence is important. However, importance of technology
in intelligence can neither be understated nor underestimated. High-
tech surveillance tools are a great aid to the current intelligence
community. If used properly and professionally can yield great
results.
d. Intelligence community of a country should keep in check the
clandestine operations of Hostile Intelligence Agencies. It is specially
true for Pakistan as USA has a geo-strategic goal to keep Islamic
world consumed by internal conflicts and skirmishes.

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