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Summary
 China’s debt trap Diplomacy- An overview

Submitted by: Submitted to:

Chirkankshit Bihari Bulani Miss. Aditi Dubey

Semester- 2 Assistant Professor

Roll no.: 22138 Political Science

Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law

Punjab, Patiala

2023
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the project report entitled China’s debt trap Diplomacy- An overview
submitted to Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab, Patiala is an outcome of
my original work carried out under the supervision of Miss. Aditi Dubey. The project is
entirely based on my own research work and has not been submitted elsewhere. All the ideas
and references have been duly acknowledged. To the best of my understanding, the project is
free from plagiarism.

Chirkankshit Bihari Bulani

Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab,

Patiala

8th April 2023

2
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

SUPERVISOR’S CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that this project assignment entitled China’s debt trap Diplomacy- An
5
overview submitted to Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab, Patiala, is a
research work carried out by Chirkankshit Bihari Bulani under my supervision and guidance
for further evaluation.

Miss. Aditi Dubey

Assistant Professor

Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab

Patiala

3
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................. 5
WHAT IS A DEBT TRAP? AND WHAT IS CHINA’S DEBT TRAP DIPLOMACY? ............ 5
WHY ARE COUNTRIES STUCK IN THE CHINESE DEBT TRAP? HOW DO THESE
LOANS WORK? HOW IS CHINA DIFFERENT FROM OTHER LENDERS? ...................... 6
PAKISTAN- THE DEBT TO DEATH STORY AND CHINA ..................................................... 8
CHINA’S DEBT TRAP STRATEGIES AND WHERE DOES INDIA STAND? .................... 10

4
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS A DEBT TRAP? AND WHAT IS CHINA’S DEBT
TRAP DIPLOMACY?
In its simplest sense, the debt trap can be defined as a form of economic diplomacy in which
one entity provides another with loans and grants, which, when cannot be repaid, are used for
geo-political leverage. The lending entity often provides such loans to borrowing entities which
it has apprehensions that won’t be able to return the loans, and hence, can be strong-armed in
further negotiations holding political or economic relevance. For example, Tonga, a small
country in the Pacific, with barely an economy of GDP of $493 million, in 2018 had an external
debt of $241 million, which is an astounding 41% of its GDP, and nearly 2/3rd of the entire
debt was owed to Eximm Bank of China, with Majority of loans provided for infrastructural
purposes. 1 It can be widely argued that such loans can be restructured or even written off in
case situations go a lot worse, however, the realistic possibility is that this provides China with
an undue influence over such countries in deciding Economic and political matters. With the
advent of the Economic rise of China, China is getting ready to flex its muscles across the
Indian Ocean and the Pacific, and gaining strategic leverage can be its first step. As put in by
Brahma Chellaney, an expert on geo-strategy and a public intellectual, in his article “China’s
Debt-Trap Diplomacy”, written in 20172, argues that China is lending unsustainable loans to
strategic countries across the world, to gain strategic advantage and keep influence over such
countries. He also argues that these loans, coming under the garb of infrastructural investments,
are used as a token of negotiation to gain controlling stakes in the same projects and secure
new contracts and projects in turn for restructuring these loans. He cites the example of
Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, where an 80% stake was sold to Chinese entities and the rest to
Sri Lankan entities in a joint venture corporation between them. According to the terms of the
new deal, China also gained the port on a 99-year lease.3 Clearly, this re-iterates the claims by
Brahma Chellany and World’s Bank President, David Malpass, that these loans being provided

1
Fox, Liam. “'Can't Say No-One Warned Them': Tonga to Start Paying Back Controversial Chinese Loans.” ABC
News, ABC News, 18 Nov. 2018, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/tonga-to-start-repaying-
controversial-chinese-loans/10013996.
2
Chellaney, Brahma, et al. “China's Debt-Trap Diplomacy: By Brahma Chellaney.” Project Syndicate, 30 Aug.
2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one-road-loans-debt-by-brahma-
chellaney-2017-01.
3
“Hambantota Port Sale in Perspective - News Features: Daily Mirror.” News Features | Daily Mirror, 17 Jan.
2017, https://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Hambantota-Port-sale-in-perspective-122278.html.

5
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

are unsustainable and hence, ripe for settling the geo-political aims of the upcoming Global
hegemon. And Tonga and Sri Lanka aren’t just two isolated examples. Those with the highest
external debt to China are Pakistan $77.3 billion, Angola $36.3 billion, Ethiopia $7.9 billion,
Kenya $7.4 billion and Sri Lanka $6.8 billion. One newspaper report in the Maldives alleges
that the country’s debt rose to around $6.8 Billion, which makes up an alarming 113 per cent
of the entire Country’s GDP.4 5 We must take alert of these alarming numbers and realise that
there is more to this story than it seems. Another interesting story here we cannot afford to miss
{and neither can they,} is Pakistan and its China- Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC is a land,
railway, and sea infrastructural project meant to revolutionise infrastructure in Pakistan, and
holds a combined value of $62 billion as of 20206. With more than 3000km of infrastructure,
it involved resuscitating the Gwadar port, located in Balochistan in Pakistan and faces the
Arabian Gulf. Compared to the Marshall Plan executed by the US for Western Europe, it is
considered the Marshall Plan for Pakistan, but we must understand the entire story before we
start hailing the Chinese as the saviour of Pakistanis.

WHY ARE COUNTRIES STUCK IN THE CHINESE DEBT

TRAP? HOW DO THESE LOANS WORK? HOW IS CHINA
DIFFERENT FROM OTHER LENDERS?
As we have already noticed multiple countries being under pressure of debt from China, with
countries owing loans which are at times equal to 50% of their entire economy, major loans of
these loans have been forwarded as a form of loans for infrastructural development, mainly as
a form of China’s Belt and Road initiative, which is a global ambitious infrastructural project
by China, and aims to restore the Old Silk Road, furthering trade and cultural ties across the
globe. It was proposed by Xi Jinping, the President of the PRC, on his visit to Kazakhstan in
8
2013.7 It has been compared to the American Marshall Plan. As of January 2023, 151 countries
were listed as having signed up for the BRI.8 It is often not that difficult to understand how
these loans work. China is integrating countries under its BRI initiatives and furthers loans at

4
“Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives among 97 Countries under China's Debt.” Nationthailand, Nationthailand, 12
Sept. 2022, https://www.nationthailand.com/world/asia-pacific/40020001.
52
Buchholz, Katharina. “The Countries Most in Debt to China [Infographic].” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 12 Oct.
2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2022/08/19/the-countries-most-in-debt-to-china-
infographic/?sh=2de8ab7961d8.
6 14
Board, The Editorial. “China's Big Plunge in Pakistan.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 23 Apr. 2015,
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/23/opinion/chinas-big-plunge-in-pakistan.html.
7
郝延 . President Xi Proposes Silk Road Economic Belt,
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013xivisitcenterasia/2013-09/07/content_16951811.htm.
817
WANG, Christoph NEDOPIL. “Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” Green Finance &
Development Center, https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/.

6
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

very opaque terms to small economies which it feels might not be able to repay those loans.
Once these loans are not repaid, it further uses this as a bargaining chip to gain concessions for
more major projects and obtain major geo-strategically important assets. This brings them more
firmly under the thumb of the Chinese government. One study conducted by the Center for
Global Development in 2021, goes on to show that Chinese loans intentionally have terms
which make the debtor even deny their existence, and include very Harsh restructuring clauses
and includes clauses which allow the CPC to control the foreign policy of the debtor. 9 One
might argue why these nations agree to such terms and conditions, knowing that China is out
to get them. The answer is simple. Countries have only one other option, which is the Lenders
backed by Western powers, which are the IMF and World Bank. Why would such countries
choose China over IMF Is a genuine question that arises, and it can be answered by studying
the rest of the facts. In 2021, The Trinidad and Tobago Government defended its decision to
prefer China over the IMF as its lender due to stringent policy by the IMF, which includes
terms of changing their economic systems or devaluing their currency, amongst 100 other
things.10 This shows countries will clearly prefer China over IMF as their preference because
of the less stringent loan terms and conditions, and also wish to reduce their dependence on
Western powers, by replacing them with China. One more reason that these countries approach
lenders like China is that China doesn’t demand good credit ratings but rather works on a
cooperative collateral basis, where assets are taken on lease to bargain for restructuring the
loans. What makes China special here, is that the IMF accepts compensation in form of hard
currency, while the Chinese have special interests. China takes payments in form of Raw
materials or seizure of strategic assets. The mixed nature of these loans being opaque, harsh in
terms not known to the rest of the world, and being provided for economically unviable
infrastructure projects, which are also built by Chinese companies, and China’s way of
compensation by seizing natural resources and assets gives way to its debt-trap diplomacy,
which it has been accused of on occasions.

9
Gelpern, Anna, and Scott Morris. “How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign
Governments.”10Center For Global Development | Ideas to Action, https://www.cgdev.org/publication/how-
china-lends-rare-look-into-100-debt-contracts-foreign-governments.
10
Doodnath, Alina. “Imbert: Choosing between IMF, Chinese Loan a 'No-Brainer': Loop Trinidad &
15
Tobago.” Loop News, Loop News, 15 June 2021, https://tt.loopnews.com/content/imbert-choosing-between-
imf-chinese-loan-no-brainer.

7
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

PAKISTAN- THE DEBT TO DEATH STORY AND CHINA

Pakistan is a country in South Asia, bordered by China, India, Iran and Afghanistan. It shares
a maritime border with Oman and has an approximately 1000km border with the Arabian Sea
and the Gulf of Oman. What’s interesting to notice is that the country is currently going through
an economic crisis, with loans piling up and dwindling foreign reserves. With only
approximately $4 billion, which is just enough to cover one month of imports11, and a
dangerous debt-to-GDP ratio of 73.58%12, the country clearly needs to revamp its economic
policy. Reason for such a high debt-to-GDP ratio, among other economic mismanagements,
yes you guessed it right, is Chinese loans. A report by IMF says that Pakistan has an external
debt of $100 Billion, and $30 billion out of that is owed just to China13. Most of this is brought
20
in as investments for what is hailed as the Marshall Plan for Pakistan, The China – Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). China- Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project of the
Belt & Road Initiative by China, which aims to resuscitate the old Silk Road and increase trade
and infrastructural connectivity along the region. The aims of the Belt and Road Initiative is 3
fold. Firstly, it allows China to solve its Malacca dilemma. It’s a reality that China still sources
80 per cent of its exports through the Strait of Malacca.14 Since Singapore is a US ally, any
interventions at the strait could hinder the Great China dream, which is something Bejing has
in mind. The Gwadar- Xinjiang port can show up as an alternative. Secondly, BRI allows China
to invest abroad and also provides employment and manufacturing opportunities to the Chinese
for investment projects being taken up abroad. Contracts for foreign projects are usually
provided to Chinese firms, which source raw materials and many times labour from China.
Thirdly, it fulfils the geo-political ambitions of China, as the project makes other countries see
it as a regional Hegemon and would reduce US influence in the region. It can be argued that
right now CPEC is the centrepiece of the development of BRI, and the success of this project
is very crucial to BRI. Pakistan hails CPEC as a ‘Corridor of Success’ and a mega investment

11 7
Jain, Edited By Alka. “Pakistan: How SBP's Forex Reserves Increased to One-Month Import Cover?” Mint, 10
Mar. 2023, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-how-sbp-s-forex-reserves-increased-to-one-
month-import-cover-11678424275534.html.
12 16
O'Neill, Aaron. “Pakistan - National Debt in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2028.” Statista, 14 Apr.
2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/383884/national-debt-of-pakistan-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-
product-gdp/.
13 19
“Understanding Pakistan's China Debt Trap.” Times of India Blog, 23 June 2022,
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/col-nagial/understanding-pakistans-china-debt-trap/.
14 13
“The Malacca Dilemma and Chinese Ambitions: Two Sides of a Coin.” Diplomatist,
https://diplomatist.com/2020/07/07/the-malacca-dilemma-and-chinese-ambitions-two-sides-of-a-coin/.

8
Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

project for Pakistan.15 But is that really the case? We must carefully analyse whether is the
Markhor being provided protection by the Dragon which is strangling it between its tail or if
Markhor doesn’t realise that it’s the next prey of the mighty Dragon. The truth, depending on
where you are from, differs. The Bald Eagle and the Tiger subscribe to the latter, while the
Dragon does to the former. As for the Markhor, it doesn’t really seem capable of providing an
opinion. The following reasons can possibly convince someone why CPEC might not be the
miraculous plan that Pakistanis believe it is.

1- Contracts for projects involved in CPEC are granted to Chinese companies exclusively,
leaving Pakistani bidders out of consideration.
2- Chinese firms hired to complete projects under CPEC bring their own local labour and
machinery from China, hence sending riches back to China. The burden of all these
expenses falls upon the already troubled Pakistani populace.
3- Terms for loans obtained under CPEC remain highly opaque and confidential, and
many times, contracts include clauses which make the debtor hide the terms of the loan.
4- Raw materials such as gold, silver, copper and gas are an important part of the
infrastructure development landscape of any country. The countries under CPEC are
utilising their own economic resources and supplying labour and technology from
China. When these countries are unable to pay back, nothing is stopping China from
taking these natural resources as payment and sending them back to their home country
for even cheaper production for its foreign markets. This strategy is also at work in
Africa, where the continent holds 50% of the world’s Manganese reserves and the
Democratic reserve of Congo holds more than 50% of the world’s cobalt. 16
5- China’s projects have a strong foundation of conservative coal-based production plants,
and such investment at a time when all countries across the world, are investing in
11
renewable energy. It is expected that about half of the world’s fossil fuel assets will be
worthless by 2036 under a net zero transition, according to research.17

15 1
Khan, Muhammad Zahid Ullah, and Minhas Majeed Khan. “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Opportunities
and Challenges.” Strategic Studies, vol. 39, no. 2, 2019, pp. 67–82. JSTOR,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/48544300. Accessed 18 Apr. 2023.
16
Shepard, Wade. “What China Is Really up to in Africa.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 12 Oct. 2022,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2019/10/03/what-china-is-really-up-to-in-
africa/?sh=e14790459304.
17 6
Mercure, J.-F., et al. “Reframing Incentives for Climate Policy Action.” Nature Energy, vol. 6, no. 12, 2021, pp.
1133–1143., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00934-2.

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Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

6- What’s more aggravating is the political instability across Pakistan. Balochistan, the
biggest province in Pakistan, which houses major CPEC projects, feels that the
Pakistani Government has ignored it and by allowing Chinese firms to build
infrastructure, is compromising Baloch nationality. There has been a constant struggle
between the Pakistani military and Baloch nationalists fighting for their independence,
and often play their terror attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan. With the exit of the
US from Afghanistan, the Taliban has grown stronger and has forwarded its support to
Tehreek-i- Taliban Pakistan, which has been carrying out terrorist attacks across
Pakistan.

All these factors, taken together show Pakistan is in big trouble and stuck in the death trap of
China. Things do not look positive for the debt-stricken country, and we must see how the
entire scenario unrolls.

CHINA’S DEBT TRAP STRATEGIES AND WHERE DOES

INDIA STAND?
Its not a difficult task to interpret that China’s actions of investing across the Indian Ocean is
a representation of the concept of balance of power, where China is trying to expand its sphere
of influence, and India is trying to expand its own, by cosying up its neighbours. This strategy,
where China is building up assets across the Indo- Pacific is called as “String of Pearls” by
political researchers in the US. They hypothesize that these investments can further be used to
build naval bases which can provide the People’s Liberation Army with military and strategic
leverage in case of any military confrontations while also extending China’s influence in the
region. 18 They say this strategy is being used to curtail India’s influence in the region. It has
been broadly categorised as China’s “Salami Slicing strategy”19 which means that China has
been taking small steps to ensure the fulfilment of its objective, which would have triggered a
war if done at once. There may be some truth to this assertion, but is that the complete picture?
India has also taken cognizance of this and has been trying to ensure her sphere of influence of
survival. However, to attribute the nuance of imperialistic ambitions to China will be taking up
a very pessimistic attitude. Many categorize China’s moves as “Neocolonialism” due to the

1818
By Virginia Marantidou - Pacific Forum. https://pacforum.org/wp-
content/uploads/2019/02/140624_issuesinsights_vol14no7.pdf.
19 12
Chellaney, Brahma. “China's Salami-Slice Strategy.” The Japan Times, 17 Dec. 2022,
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/07/25/commentary/world-commentary/chinas-salami-slice-
strategy/#.Xu84jpozbIU.

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Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

creation of dependency of the recipient nations on the host nation China.20 But is that really the
case? Another perspective presents that China’s Debt trap Diplomacy doesn’t exist, and has
9
been created as Anti- China Narrative by hostile nations. An Article in the Atlantic by Deborah
Brautigam, who is Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the
School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, puts forward the idea
that the claims that China pushes small nations into a debt trap is much more complex below
the surface. They mention the instance of Hambantota port, say that the project has been
declared feasible by multiple Canadian think- tanks and describe the 99-year lease to a Chinese
company as a business challenge to European powers rather than a geo-political move made to
gain leverage. 21 Same was re- iterated by Shahar Hameiri in his article “Debunking the myth
of China’s “debt- trap diplomacy”22 Here is where it becomes confusing. Is China a conniving
lender bent on seizing assets across Indo- Pacific and increasing its influence or is it just trying
to to spread economic prosperity and move towards collective growth? And where does India
stand? India has been on the difficult side on this topic. It must not bow down to the
imperialistic ambitions of the Great Chinese order but also must now become a pawn at the
hand of the West. Russia- Ukraine war has taught the world that the West cannot be trusted.
Henry Kissinger famously stated: "To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a
friend is fatal."23 India must carefully design its foreign policy as it tries to find its place in the
new world order and also acknowledges the reality, which was more than aptly put forward by
Arvind Adiga in his book “ The White Tiger”, "It's the century of the brown man and the yellow
man, and God saves everybody else,".24

320
ABC News. “Malaysia's Mahathir Warns against 'New Colonialism' during China Visit.” ABC News, ABC News,
20 Aug. 2018, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-21/mahathir-says-china-will-sympathise-with-malaysia-
problems/10145750.
21 4
Deborah Brautigam, Meg Rithmire. “The Chinese 'Debt Trap' Is a Myth.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media
Company, 12 Apr. 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-
diplomacy/617953/.
22 21
Hameiri, Shahar, et al. “Debunking the Myth of China's ‘Debt-Trap Diplomacy.’” Lowy Institute, 6 Dec. 2016,
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/debunking-myth-china-s-debt-trap-diplomacy.
23
Times, Global. “US Prides Itself on International Allies but May Find Itself Lacking.” Global Times,
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256563.shtml.
24
ADIGA, ARAVIND. White Tiger. ATLANTIC BOOKS, 2020.

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Political science project China’s debt trap diplomacy

BIBLIOGRAPHY
JOURNALS-
1. Fox, Liam. “'Can't Say No-One Warned Them': Tonga to Start Paying Back Controversial Chinese
Loans.” ABC News, ABC News, 18 Nov. 2018, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-19/tonga-to-
start-repaying-controversial-chinese-loans/10013996.

2. Chellaney, Brahma, et al. “China's Debt-Trap Diplomacy: By Brahma Chellaney.” Project Syndicate, 30
Aug. 2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one-road-loans-debt-by-
brahma-chellaney-2017-01.

3. “Hambantota Port Sale in Perspective - News Features: Daily Mirror.” News Features | Daily Mirror, 17
Jan. 2017, https://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Hambantota-Port-sale-in-perspective-122278.html.

4. . “Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives among 97 Countries under China's Debt.” Nationthailand,
Nationthailand, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.nationthailand.com/world/asia-pacific/40020001.

5. Buchholz, Katharina. “The Countries Most in Debt to China [Infographic].” Forbes, Forbes Magazine,
12 Oct. 2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2022/08/19/the-countries-most-in-
debt-to-china-infographic/?sh=2de8ab7961d8.

6. Board, The Editorial. “China's Big Plunge in Pakistan.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 23
Apr. 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/23/opinion/chinas-big-plunge-in-pakistan.html.

7. 郝延 . President Xi Proposes Silk Road Economic Belt,

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013xivisitcenterasia/2013-09/07/content_16951811.htm.

8. WANG, Christoph NEDOPIL. “Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” Green Finance &
Development Center, https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/.

9. Gelpern, Anna, and Scott Morris. “How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign
Governments.” Center For Global Development | Ideas to Action,
https://www.cgdev.org/publication/how-china-lends-rare-look-into-100-debt-contracts-foreign-
governments.

10. Doodnath, Alina. “Imbert: Choosing between IMF, Chinese Loan a 'No-Brainer': Loop Trinidad &
Tobago.” Loop News, Loop News, 15 June 2021, https://tt.loopnews.com/content/imbert-choosing-
between-imf-chinese-loan-no-brainer.

12
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Those with the highestexternal debt to China are Pakistan $77.3 billion, Angola $3...
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