Climate Change:

The Basics
What is climate change and
why is it happening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMwFNMfjFuU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBjabNusoKM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBRHlegibpU
(LIO) Questions to answer…

• What is the difference between the

greenhouse effect, climate change and
global warming?

• What evidence do we have that climate

change is happening?

• Why is it happening?

• What are some of the possible effects?

What’s the difference?
Weather
Weather refers to day-to-day temperature, precipitation, and other
atmospheric conditions.

● Temporary behavior of atmosphere

● Small geographic area

● Can change rapidly

What’s the difference?
Climate
Climate is the long-term weather pattern in an area, typically averaged
over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of
meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions
of years.

● Long-term behavior of atmosphere (100+ years)

● Large geographic area
● Very slow to change

Weather refers to short term atmospheric conditions while climate is

the weather of a specific region averaged over a long period of time.
What’s the difference?
CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL WARMING
Is the long-term changes in climate,
including average temperature and Is the increase of the Earth’s
precipitation. average surface temperature due
to a build-up of greenhouse gases
It recognizes that, although the average in the atmosphere.
surface temperature may increase, the
regional or local temperature may
decrease or remain constant.
What Causes Climate Change?
What Causes Climate Change?
Milankovitch Cycles
(Milankovitch Parameters)
• describe the collective effects of
changes in the Earth's movements on
its climate over thousands of years.
• named for Serbian geophysicist and
astronomer Milutin Milanković.
• hypothesized (1920s) that variations
in eccentricity, axial tilt, and
precession combined to result in
cyclical variations in the distribution
of solar radiation at the Earth's
surface, and strongly influenced the
Earth's climatic patterns.
What Causes Climate
Change?
Volcanic
Eruptions
• Every few decades or so, there is a volcanic
eruption (e.g., Mount Pinatubo, El Chichón)
that throws out a tremendous number of
particles and other gases.
• These will effectively shield us enough from
the Sun to lead to a short-lived global cooling
period.
• The particles and gases typically dissipate
after about 1 to 2 years, but the effect is
nearly global.
What Causes Climate
Change?

Tectonic Plates
The distribution of landmasses
and formation and breakup of
supercontinents has
dramatically influenced global
and local climate on timescales
of 100 million years, with cycles
repeating for the past few billion
years of Earth's history.
Late Carboniferous 300 Ma Global icehouse; low sea level;
continental collisions
What Causes Climate Change?

The Greenhouse Effect

The thickness of the atmosphere

and the concentration of its gases
influence the surface temperature
on any planet.

The greenhouse effect is the way

in which heat is trapped close to
Earth's surface by “greenhouse
gases.”
What Causes Climate Change?
The Greenhouse Effect
Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide
(N2O), methane (CH4), fluorinated
gasses, ozone (O3) and water vapor
(H2O) are greenhouse gases that are
found in the atmosphere.

Energy travels from the Sun to the

Earth as short wave radiation.

It does not interact strongly with the

greenhouse gas molecules so it
reaches the Earth’s surface.
Why is climate change happening?

What evidence do we have?

What evidence do we have?

This map shows the five-year average

variation of global surface temperatures
from 1884 to 2012.

Dark blue indicates areas cooler than average.

Dark red indicates areas warmer than average.

Source: NASA Climate http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators#globalTemp

What evidence do we have?

Earth’s global average surface temperature has risen, as shown in this plot of combined land and ocean measurements
from 1850 to 2019 derived from three independent analyses of the available data sets. The temperature changes are
relative to the global average surface temperature, averaged from 1961−1990.

Source: NOAA Climate.gov, based on IPCC AR5. Data from UK Met Office Hadley Centre (maroon), US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies (red), and US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information
What evidence do we have?

Sources:
- Mauna Loa Observatory, NOAA:
ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annm
ean_mlo.txt
- Law Dome Ice Core, Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.combined.d
at
What evidence do we have?

Temperature & CO2 Data

Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Source: NASA Climate, Data from NOA
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators#co2
Global Sea Level Rise

Visit: http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators for interactive charts on sea

level and other key climate change indicators.
Source: NASA Climate http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators#seaLevel
Glaciers are melting
So are ice caps on both North and South poll. Pictured example: Portage Glacier,
Alaska

1914 2004
What evidence do
we have?
“Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal,
human influence on the climate
system is clear …”
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, January, 2014,
Press Release
• Warming and sea level rise will continue
and will probably occur more quickly than
what we’ve already seen
• Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized,
this will probably continue to occur for
centuries
• Some effects may be permanent
• Effects on Ecosystems
– Coral systems and other unique ecosystems cannot
handle higher temperatures well
– Wildfires will increase
– Up to 30% of species will be at increased risk for
extinction due to the rapid changes in their
ecosystems
– Warming in western mountains: several effects
– Increased rain: will actually help some crops
– Heat waves will increase in number, length, and
intensity
– Coastal communities will be affected by increased
flooding and storms
Climate Projections: Temperature (Source:
PAGASA, 2018)

- Observed temperature increases by 0.1 C/decade

- Projections suggest continued warming
- By 2050, averaged mean temperature could increase
- From 0.9 C to 1.9 C for a moderate emission scenario
- From 1.2 C to 2.3 C for a high emission scenario (RCP8.5)
- By 2100, averaged mean temperature
- From 1.3 C to 2.5C for a moderate emission scenario
- From 2.5 C to 4.1 C for a high emission scenario
 Climate Projections:
Rainfall and Tropical Cyclones
(Source: PAGASA, 2018)

- Reduced rainfall from March-May in most areas, making the dry

season drier
- Increased heavy and extreme rainfall in Luzon and Visayas during the
southwest monsoon, making the wet season wetter
- Rainfall reduction is projected over Central sections of Mindanao
- Lesser tropical cyclones, but higher in terms of intensity level
Impacts of Rainfall and
Cyclones to Food
• Cyclones and heavy rains bring severe flooding and increase runoff
and soil erosion, reducing soil fertility, damaging crops and altering
productivity, especially during La Nina years.
• An estimated annual GDP loss of up to 2.2% is projected by 2100 due
to extreme weather events.
Climate Projections: Sea Level Rise
(Source: PAGASA, 2018)

- From 1993 to 2015, sea level has risen in some parts by nearly
double the global average rate.
- 5.7 to 7.0 mm/yr in the Philippine Sea (AVISO altimetry) vs. 2.8 to 3.6
mm/yr global rate (1993 to 2010) – research what this means in terms of hectares
of land or percent of land mass loss in the Philippines to visualize the impact
- Projected SLR under an RCP8.5 scenario is estimated at 20 cm. research
what this means in terms of hectares of land or percent of land mass loss in the Philippines to
visualize the impact
Impacts of Rising Sea Level to Food
• Could worsen the impacts of storm surges
• Loss of coastal land due to inundation
• Salt-water intrusion and increased salinity levels in agricultural land
• Salt water intrusion of coastal aquifiers affects water quality in about
25% of coastal municipalities in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao
• Increased salinity and sea level could also damage mangroves
 Paris Agreement COP21
In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, the nations signed an agreement that set out an
ambitious plan to tackle climate change. In the Paris Agreement, nations
agreed to act together to restrict global temperature increases to 2°C and
begin efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
To do this we will need to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050. This means that any carbon
emissions will need to be balanced by removing carbon dioxide from the air.

Comité de Paris, COP21, by UNclimatechange licensed under CC BY

Declare a Climate Emergency
Now!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q0xUXo2zEY
 References
IPCC Summary Report for Policy Makers. 2014
IPCC Summary Report graphics. 2014
"About IPCC." IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 20 Apr.
2009 <http://www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm>.
"Climate Change | U.S. EPA." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 20 Apr.
2009 <http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html>.
Rischard, J. F. High Noon: Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve
Them. New York: Basic Books, 2002.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMwFNMfjFuU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0B6AxeVNY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBjabNusoKM
 Declare a Climate Emergency
Right now there is an upsurge in different climate movements to campaign for climate
emergency.

As of July 2019, there are 967 jurisdictions in 18 countries have declared a climate
emergency. Populations covered by jurisdictions that have declared a climate emergency
amount to 212 million citizens, with 47 million of these living in the United Kingdom. This
means in Britain now roughly 70 per cent of the population lives in areas that have declared
a climate emergency.

In New Zealand, the percentage is even higher: 73 per cent of the population.

It’s 24 per cent in Switzerland and Spain. These countries felt that by declaring climate
emergency cities are adopting more powers to help curb the effects of climate change and
the national government needs to declare an emergency and put resources in place to
enable councils to help reduce carbon emissions.

While seeing that there is not yet a global consensus in solving the climate crisis, it is but
important that the Philippine Government must go ahead, plan and prepare its people for
the expected impacts. The Philippines being a country that always in the top list of the most
vulnerable to impacts of climate change.
 ON FLOODING AND SEA LEVEL RISE
By 2030, 74.16 million people or more than half of the Year 2030 projected 123.6 Million
population will be affected by sea-level rise as 60% of the Philippine population live in
coastal areas. This will be 10 of every 16 Filipinos who will be living in 2030
experiencing this problem. By 2030, almost all of the population will be experiencing
severe to extreme and various types of water problem as this finite resource will be
destabilized by sea-level rise and the continuing destruction of forests and watersheds.
This alone will trigger myriads of problem. Health and malnutrition will be one of them
affecting more than half of the population since 50% of the animal protein intake of the
Filipinos are derived from marine fisheries.
Settlements for the 74.16 million population affected by sea-level rise will be a
nightmare for the government by 2030. And this problem will be more pronounced in
all the megacities of the Philippines since all the major cities are in the shorelines.
Coastal towns will not be spared also from the sea level rise since 50% of the towns
are in coastal areas and not less than 37% of the coastal areas or 167,000 hectares of
the total 450,000 will be submerged. The submerged coastal area is almost 3x the
size of Metro Manila. Human settlements, land, and housing including food and water
will be a tremendous problem by 2030. This build-up and accumulation of the climate
crisis impact part of what will become the "tipping point" that The Philippines by 2030
will experience do not account yet other major impacts, like typhoons stronger than
Yolanda and worst flooding and landslides associated with it.