SUPPLY AND DEMAND HEAVY LIFT AND SERVICE VESSELS

CHMI/OWL

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 What is in this webinar:

Section 1 – Heavy Lift Vessels

Sue Allen Madeleine Tholen
Trend analysis Monopile weight and turbine rating forecast
BSc MSc
Foundation
Supply and demand of foundation installation vessels Senior Analyst Market Researcher
installation
Turbine
Supply and demand of turbine installation vessels
installation

Conclusions Reconciliation of our forecast and key takeaways

Section 2 – Service Vessels

▪ Ask questions via the Q&A function
CTVs Supply and demand for CTVs on the control panel
SOVs and Lauren Anderson
CSOVs
Supply and demand for SOVs and CSOVs
Sales Manager ▪ Please use the chat window for
Forecast Vessel demand forecast to 2035 general conversation or if you are
having issues

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 Construction &
Maintenance Vessels

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 Trend Analysis
▪ Supply and demand analysis shows a shortage of ▪ By 2030
vessels capable of installing 2000t+ monopiles, and ▪ Average monopile mass will be 2500t
15MW+ turbines. ▪ Average turbine rating in Europe will be 17 MW, which
▪ The trends below show that by 2025 translates to a rotor diameter of 250m
▪ Average monopile mass will be 1800t ▪ Vessels will need key upgrades to be able to match
▪ Average turbine rating in Europe will be 14MW, which this demand
translates to a rotor diameter of 230m

Monopile mass by offshore construction year Average turbine rating forecast Rotor diameter and modelled power density vs capacity
3000 18 300
Europe
Mass (t)

Americas
Average Turbine Rating (MW) 16
2500 APAC
15 MW 250
14 China
0.5 MW
TP-less

Rotor Diameter (m)

2000 12
200
10
1500
8
150
SGRE
1000 6
Vestas
4 GE
100 Others
500
2 China

0 Year 0 50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2010 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 2030 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Rated Capacity (MW)
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 Supply and demand of foundation installation vessels

Global Supply v Demand (exc. China) By GeoRegion Supply v Demand

25 25
Other + not specified
20 20 Europe
Jacket demand
7
10 11 10
Monopile demand North America
15 4 15 12
8 Global WFIV Supply 8
2 19 12 11 Asia
16 15 8 11
10 2 4 2 Optimal Vessels 10 11
15 6 7 Unrestricted Total
2 Monopile 1500t WFIV 4
5 WFIV supply*
5 2 11 supply 3
8 8 9 8 5 6 3 APAC WFIV
2 7 4
4 5 5 2 supply
3 3 2 3 4 3 4
0 2 2 2
0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

▪ Demand matches supply in 2025/2026 at 22 vessels ▪ Significant shortage of vessels in North America and
▪ Monopile demand is expected to increase, being the Asia
preferred solution due to lower CAPEX and supply chain ▪ The only WFIV in Asia is Green Jade which is due for
risk. delivery in 2023, and the US currently has no WFIVs.
▪ Vessel shortage in previous report is no longer observed ▪ European vessels may move to these markets to meet
due to near term project delays (see reconciliation demand
slide)
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 Supply and demand of turbine installation vessels
Global Supply v Demand (exc. China) By GeoRegion Supply v Demand
Annual average 2025 - 2030
30
18
25 5 16 6 vessel
8 Under 10MW Demand
3 surplus
10 - 12MW Demand 14 12+ DEMAND
20 3
12+ SUPPLY
10 12-14MW Demand 12
2
15MW+ Demand
15 3 12 10
Total Fleet
18
26 8
4 4 12-14MW Supply
10 14 21 15MW+ Supply
19 6 12
4
8 7 7 14
4 2 vessel 4 vessel
5 9
5 shortage 5 shortage
2 4
3 3 3 2
2 1
0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 ASIA US EU

▪ Demand climbs steadily from 11 – 27 by 2027
▪ Shortage in 12 – 14 MW capable vessels from 2028
▪ Shortage in 15MW + capable vessels from 2030
▪ Project delays will push back demand (see next slide)
▪ Significant shortage of vessels in US and Asia
▪ The only vessel in the US is Charybdis, which is due for
delivery in 2023
▪ Without significant new-build capacity, US and Asia will
be dependent on European vessels.

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 Construction start date reconciliation for 2024/25
Change in FIV demand from Q1 2022 - Q3 2022 for 2024 Change in FIV demand from Q1 2022 - Q3 2022 for 2025

25 vessels
24 vessels

22 vessels
17 vessels
Europe Analyst Offshore Start Europe Analyst Offshore Start
PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND
Hornsea Three UK1K 2852 2024 2026 Grid connections moved from 2025 to Q4 2026 & 2028. Hornsea Three UK1K 2852 2024 2026 Grid connections moved from 2025 to Q4 2026 & 2028.
Seagreen 1A UK4P 500 2024 2025 Seagreen Extension did not secure CfD during AR4. Codling IE02 1500 2025 2026 Plans to submit planning consent in H2 2023.
Inch Cape UK54 1080 2024 2024 Turbine MW increased to 15 MW so reduced number of foundations. Baltica 3 PL21 1045.5 2025 2027 Delays to building permit and FID
Baltyk III PL17 720 2024 2026 Delays to building permit and FID. Norfolk Boreas UK69 1800 2025 2026 Developers revised schedule, installation expected 2026.
Baltyk III PL22 720 2024 2026 Delays to building permit and FID. East Anglia Hub – ONE North UK2Q 600 2025 2026 Consent challenged by judicial review, CfD anticipated H2 2023.
Dieppe – Le Tréport FR33 496 2024 2025 Developers push back commissioning.
Oriel IE03 375 2024 2025 Procedural delays anticipated during 2023 RESS auction.
Asia
Arklow Bank - phase 2 IE07 800 2024 2028 Project upscaled so FID pushed back. PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND
Incheon – KOSEP KR14 640 2025 2031 Public protests from fisheries.
Frederikshavn Offshore Wind
72 2024 2023 Consent recently awarded so construction brought forward a year.
Demo DK43
North America
Asia PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND
PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND Developer extended timeline by one year to mitigate supply chain
Greater Changhua TW76 337.1 2023 2024 Delayed FID due to knock-on effects from COVID Park City Wind US5W 804 2025 2026
bottlenecks and high commodity prices.
Onshore construction started this year so offshore construction Kitty Hawk Wind – phase 1 US1Y 1150 2025 2026 Increased capacity and extended timeline.
Taipower Iia TW49 300 2024 2023
moved forward to 2023.
Ulsan - SK KR19 136 2024 2026 Delays to permitting during the permitting stage.
Sinan – SK E&S Phase 1 KR55 99 2024 2023 Developers anticipate earlier construction start.
North America
PROJECT MW Q1 2022 Q3 2022 REASON FOR DECREASED VESSEL DEMAND
Empire Wind 1 US4J 816 2024 2025 Consent still not authorized so construction pushed back a year.

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 Key Takeaways

▪ Developers will find it increasingly difficult to secure the vessel assets needed to keep their projects on schedule and
meet planned commissioning dates, due to
▪ Unprecedented project delays
▪ Vessel incidents
▪ Lack of vessels capable of installing XXL monopiles and turbines
▪ European vessels will need to move to the US or Asian markets to enable them to meet their demand.
▪ Increasingly ambitious renewable energy targets adds pressure to the offshore wind industry to get projects built this
side of 2030.
▪ Demand will continue to increase post 2025, and vessel shortages are anticipated towards the end of the decade.

Monopile installation complete on Arcadis Ost 1, source: DEME Cadeler F-class vessel- Credit: https://www.cadeler.com/en/

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 Service Vessels

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 Supply: CTVs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021
France open to new operators
Majority of supply goes to UK projects CTV days by country and operator, Q3 2022
Top 5 keep places in market CTV days by country for the leading operators
Market share of leading CTV operators Q3 2022 4000 100% Others
France
Ireland 90%
3500 HST Marine
Sweden 80%
WMO
Windcat , 16.7% 3000
Netherlands 70%
SeaZip
2500 Belgium 60%
Others, 37.4% Offshore
Denmark 50%
2000 Windservice
N-O-S, 11.5% Germany Seacat Services
40%
1500 United Kingdom
30% Turner Iceni
1000
Njord Offshore, 7.8% 20% Mareel
HST Marine, 500 10% Njord Offshore
2.5%
Mareel, 5.8% 0 0%
World Marine N-O-S
Offshore, 2.5%
SeaZip, 3.3% Offshore Turner Iceni,
Windservice, 3.4%
Seacat Services, 4.5% 4.6%

Other News
▪ Top ten operators supplying ~66% of vessel days
▪ Windcat announced six hydrogen vessels
▪ Top five remain broadly the same but some shuffling in the
▪ N-O-S continues with diversification - has two W2W
other five
vessels and work outside of the sector
▪ Most vessel days supplied to the UK market
▪ Purus Marine acquired HST Marine, plus three hybrid
▪ SeaZip had a strong quarter since acquiring the WEM Damen FCS 2710s
vessels
▪ MRE acquired Opus Marine
▪ France and Germany providing opportunities to others
▪ 66% of the fleet of active vessels had work in Q3
operators
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 Demand: CTVs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021

9000 July improvement in demand is short lived Others

8000
Monthly CTV Days between 2018 and 2022
▪ Good start in July but not sustained
SeaZip
7000
▪ Trend over the year continues on downward slope
6000

5000
HST Marine
▪ UK the most disappointing
4000 World
Marine ▪ Germany and the Netherland holding up
3000 Offshore
2000
Offshore
Windservice
▪ France providing welcome demand
1000 Turner Iceni
0
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Construction demand increase offsets O&M losses
2018 2019 CTV Days by status, Q3 2021 vs Q3 2022

2022 demand continues decline as seen in Q2, 2022 Construction Operations

CTV Days per quarter, 2021 v 2020
2021 2022 Despite new construction, CTV days down in Europe
CTV days by country, Q3 2022 v Q3 2021 -9%
25000 19.1k
-2% 13000
-1% 17.4k
20000 11000 -18% Q3 2021

CTV days
9000 Q3 2022
15000 -8%
7000
10000 +2%
5000 +2%
5000 3000 +14% +784% 4.3k
-28% 3.2k
1000 +70%
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -1000 Q3 2021 Q3 2022
UK Germany Netherlands France Denmark Belgium Finland

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 Supply: SOVs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021

OPERATORS: Esvagt market share reduced Esvagt fleet maintains market lead New build news
Market share of SOV operators, Q3 2022 vessel days SOV Days by operator with number of active SOVs

900 DEME
▪ Steel cutting started on
5% 2 LDA
Esvagt’s new SOV
800
10% ESVAGT
BS Offshore Bibby Marine ▪ SOV for BS Offshore is
5% 700
36% Acta Marine 1
Østensjø Rederi proposed for Hai Long projects
Østensjø Rederi
1,824
Bibby Marine
600 Acta Marine in Taiwan
15%

SOV Days
LDA
DEME
500 1 3
BS Offshore
▪ GC Reiber has ordered two
ESVAGT
400 SWATH SOVs from Cemre
15% 14%
300
2
▪ Keels laid on Shanghai Electric
200
5 3 SOVs
▪ Small increase days in Q3 2022 100 3
▪ North Star announced £140
▪ Esvagt lost 4% of share due to Edda 1 million investment for its SOV
0
Breeze (Edda Wind) starting operations <80 m 80-90 m >90 m fleet
LOA Group
▪ Esvagt is the market leader with 8 vessels ▪ New entrant Marco Polo
▪ Edda Wind (Østensjo Rederi) has three Marine – targeting Taiwan
vessels plus two to start soon market

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 Demand: SOVs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021
Growth in YoY O&M demand
SOV Days by project status Q3 2021 v Q3 2022 SOV days stabilise UK SOV day fall significantly
Number of SOV days SOV Days by country, Q3 20221 v Q3 2022
1826 850
1806
1600 Construction 750
-20% Q3 2021
1400 +0%
Operations 650
550 Q3 2022
1200

1000 450
Q3 2021 350
800 +26% +22%
Q3 2022 250
600
150
400 -49.5% 50
200 -50

0
Q3 2021 Q3 2022
CLIENTS: SGRE maintains lead
SOV days supplied to clients since 2015
▪ Slight YoY improvement in overall vessel day 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Client: Turbine OEMs take 74% share
Q3, 2022 market share of SOV days by client
demand SGRE
Vestas Equinor
▪ O&M improving while construction work Ørsted Esvagt 6%

falls Equinor BS Offshore

Ørsted SGRE
Macqu… Acta Marine 20% 31%
▪ Is fall in construction days due to W2Ws? RWE Ostensjo Rederi

▪ Demand in Q3 from small pool of clients: GE

Bibby
DEME…
▪ Two OEMs: Vestas and SGRE ~45% Van…
LDA

DEME Offshore Vestas

▪ Two developers: Ørsted and Equinor EnBW
43%
Others

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 Forecast: CTVs

Installed base of turbines grows slower than capacity additions

Number of turbines entering installation annually, and cumulative ▪ Forecast methodology – number of turbines installed,
2,500 35,000 distance to shore and port
30,000 ▪ Model developed on known O&M strategies
2,000
China
▪ CTVs can be supplied locally

Cumulative (turbines)
25,000
Annual (turbines)

APAC
1,500
20,000 Americas ▪ Steady growth but flattening out
1,000
15,000
Europe ▪ Limited demand in the Americas
Cumulative
10,000 ▪ Europe will continue to demand CTVs
500
5,000
Established markets stable; emerging markets driving demand
0 0 Europe: CTV demand by Country
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
534 537 542
Emerging markets will need their own supply chain 518 523 Others
Global CTV demand (ex. China) 452 467 Belgium
437
397 Poland
826 858 351
786 790 811 317
Ireland
92
704 91 292 287 293
89 83 87 Denmark
645 669
78
584 197 223 Americas France
73 72 179 184 190
515 63
159
437 62 135 146 APAC Netherlands
124
371 44
342 332 102 Europe Germany
2 28 75
10
36 49
518 523 534 537 542 United Kingdom
437 452 467
351 397
292 287 293 317
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
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 Forecast : SOVs

Global demand for SOV strengthens

130
Global SOV demand (ex. China)
121
114
21
23 ▪ Trend for SOVs supporting O&M contracts
101
▪ SOVs proven in the market, steady growth
18
92 16
16 14
13

▪ Germany to be leading market

79 15
73 11 Americas
12 9
11 APAC
▪ Increase for high confidence projects is low, and
59 8
9
48 8 Europe

32
40
5
7
5
7

68
74
83 86 91
higher for the lower confidence projects
26 3 4
22 23 2 59
2 53
1 1 44
31 36
23 27
21

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Minimal increases for high confidence projects
European SOV demand by Analyst Confidence 92
Germany and UK create demand 88
Europe: SOV demand by Country 84

15 76
14 Others 31
69 27
13 4 25
4 5 Belgium
19
10 4 5 61
13
7 4 5 Denmark 55 Low
1 15 15 8
6 4
1 14
11 Netherlands 45
5
Medium
5 4
1 9
3 United Kingdom 2 30 32 32
3 1 7 20 21 37 24 27 28 High
1 2
0 7 18 18 21
1 2
0 4 18 Germany 31 1 14
2
0
3 3 17 27 8
1
2
0 16 24 4
1
2 1
2
0 3 12 14 21 21 3
0
2 2 11 1
7 7 8 22 23 24 25
16 20
8 8 10 11 11 12 12 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
21 21 23 24

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

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 New development – W2W vessel to be included

▪ What is an SOV?
▪ Purpose-built vessel for long
term operations and
maintenance work
▪ Market has evolved – need for
?
vessels with W2W capability in
construction plus short term
O&M
▪ Next report to include analysis
with W2W vessels and contracts
included
▪ Feedback welcome!

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 Q&A

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