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CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2. COLD-CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2. The Younger Dryas Abrupt Climate Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.3. Millennial-Scale Abrupt Climate Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.4. Mechanisms and Theory of Cold-Climate Abrupt Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.5. The Pace of Cold-Climate Abrupt Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. WARM-CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2. North Atlantic Abrupt Climate Change Before
and During the Holocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3. Abrupt Changes in Drought and Drought Regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.4. Abrupt Changes in Flood Regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.5. Abrupt Change in Tropical Storm Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.6. Abrupt Change in Asian and African Monsoons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.7. Abrupt Change in Tropical Pacific/ENSO Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
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1. INTRODUCTION
The reality of anthropogenic global warming is by now well established, but the
pace and amplitude of future change remains uncertain, particularly on a regional
basis (1). A growing body of evidence from past climate studies argues that even
if radiative forcing changes gradually, the climate system is not likely to respond
smoothly. These studies show that the climate system is capable of extremely rapid
transitions and that this behavior is geographically and temporally widespread (2).
Abrupt climate changes have been observed from North Atlantic to monsoonal cli-
mate systems, from the equator to poles, and from desert to coral reef environments,
all in the absence of abrupt climate forcing. As the resolution, replication, and quan-
tification of paleoclimate studies improve, patterns of abrupt climate change are
emerging along with insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate
system behavior. Because abrupt changes are not linearly coupled to climate change
forcing, their prediction is currently a significant challenge. The phenomenon of
abrupt climate change makes anticipating and preparing for future climate change
difficult. The potential for abrupt future change argues that we are already courting
“dangerous anthropogenic interference” (3, 4) with the climate system.
What do we mean by abrupt change? Alley et al. (2), in a seminal paper arising
from a U.S. National Academy of Sciences report (5), followed on the original
definition of abrupt change (6): an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate
system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a
rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. Others have
defined it simply as a large change within less than 30 years (7) or as a transition in
the climate system whose duration is fast relative to the duration of the preceding
or subsequent state (8). We prefer this last definition, with the recognition that
abrupt change can be forced or unforced and is usually a nonlinear or threshold
transition between two more stable regional or global climate states. Initial work
describing abrupt change focused on North Atlantic records of glacial and deglacial
climate change and implied that the influence of large ice sheets was key. More
recent studies illustrate the global imprint of glacial and deglacial abrupt change
and extend this concept to interglacial periods, notably the Holocene [the past
circa (ca.) 11.6 thousand years (kyrs)]. Research on both cold-climate (glacial and
deglacial) and warm-climate (Holocene and previous interglacials) abrupt change
has significant implications for future climate responses. From these studies, we
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know that abrupt change can propagate globally, does not require large ice sheets,
occurs on timescales important to society (years, decades), and is a common mode
of climate system behavior that may or may not be attributable to a specific forcing.
We write this review with several goals: (a) to provide an updated synthesis of
the abrupt change literature useful both within and beyond the paleo- and physical
climate communities; (b) to suggest and refine hypotheses on warm- and cold-
climate abrupt change that will guide future research; and (c) to highlight the
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discuss warm-climate abrupt change and its patterns and potential causes. We
also discuss the potential for abrupt sea level change via the effects of climate
change on large ice sheets (under both deglacial and modern conditions). We briefly
review the potential for abrupt changes forced by “exotic” events (e.g., methane
“clathrate” melting, immense volcanic eruptions, and asteroid impacts). Finally, we
discuss the implications of abrupt change research for understanding future climate
change and its impacts. Our primary conclusions are that abrupt climate change in
the future is inevitable, that continued human forcing of climate change increases
the probability of deleterious abrupt climate change, and that broad policy measures
are needed to reduce the vulnerability of human and ecological systems to an
environment that will likely change in unpredictable ways.
2.1. Introduction
The earliest focus on the issue of abrupt climate change during glacial and deglacial
climates arose out of terrestrial and marine deglaciation records and, in partic-
ular, from high-resolution data from Greenland ice cores. During the most re-
cent deglaciation, an abrupt reversal of warming known as the Younger Dryas
(YD) cold interval (9) provided one of the first well-studied examples of abrupt
change. Corresponding changes in the position of the oceanographic polar front
were documented by North Atlantic paleoceanographic reconstructions (10). In ice
core isotope records, rapid transitions between cold and warm intervals occur on
timescales measurable in human rather than geologic terms, i.e., years to decades
(11). These millennial oscillations characterize the most recent deglaciation and
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changes are not a linear response to external forcing (no sudden forcing has been
identified), so they represent either a threshold response to smaller, more gradual
forcing or an abrupt change in the internal workings of the climate system. Iden-
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These arguments link a cool tropical Pacific (La Niña) with glacial states and vice
versa; potential teleconnection mechanisms include the effect of North American
temperature anomalies (in the same direction as the tropical Pacific) impacting
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snow and ice margins directly (39). The response of ENSO to orbital forcing is
clearly shown in model studies and paleoclimate records (42), and in transient
model simulations, it leads to an 11,000-year response period (41, 43). But a clear
mechanistic link to millennial D/O events has proven more elusive.
Additional tropical mechanisms include the influence of North Atlantic vari-
ability on Asian monsoon circulation. Physical climate linkages between the North
Atlantic and Asia have been described for modern variability [e.g., (44)] as well
as for Holocene and deglacial intervals [e.g., (45–48)]. On millennial timescales,
stadials are clearly associated with weaker summer monsoons (49, 50), perhaps re-
lated to enhanced snow cover that diminishes monsoon intensity (51). Regardless
of their origin, abrupt changes that engage the monsoon have the opportunity to
propagate across a large area, even to engage ENSO. Once the monsoon and ENSO
are engaged in the millennial pace of D/O events, the signal can be widely imparted
to teleconnection regions associated with these systems (52). Modern climate rela-
tionships imply that a cold North Atlantic would correspond to a weak Asian mon-
soon and therefore warm El Niño conditions (the latter through mechanisms such
as snow cover, trade wind, and Walker circulation changes, and/or ENSO-related
warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, which weakens Asian monsoon intensity).
Another important tropical connection to cold-climate abrupt change lies in
the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Peterson et al. (53), using
data from the Cariaco Basin north of Venezuela, describe enhanced rain in north-
ern South America during interstadials that results from a northward shift of the
ITCZ. If this situation also strengthens the westward moisture transport out of
the Atlantic, it could feed back positively on the MOC by increasing subtropi-
cal Atlantic salinity. This mechanism is supported by modeling studies that link
enhanced vapor transport out of the Atlantic to a vigorous MOC under mod-
ern and future conditions (54, 55). Modeling studies also reproduce the response
of the Atlantic ITCZ to North Atlantic conditions, such that it shifts southward
when the hemispheric gradient increases during cool North Atlantic intervals (56).
These feedbacks reinforce each other to ensure a coupling between tropical and
high-latitude Atlantic variability. A southward-displaced Atlantic ITCZ is also
characteristic of La Niña conditions [e.g., (57)].
Whether cold-climate abrupt change is triggered in the tropics or rapidly im-
ported there from the North Atlantic, it is arguably the engagement of the tropics
that enables the signal to propagate widely and efficiently over the globe. ENSO
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abrupt change must be considered as we work to anticipate how climate will change
in the near future, in response to ongoing anthropogenic forcings.
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3.1. Introduction
The roots of modern paleoclimatology have origins in studies of late Holocene cli-
mate variability in, and around, the eastern North Atlantic. The so-called Medieval
Warm Period and Little Ice Ages are etched into both the climate change literature
and popular imagination. We now know that parts of Earth were nearly as warm as
the mid-twentieth century between AD 1000 to 1100 and that this generally warmer
period was followed by colder temperatures at least in the Northern Hemisphere
before giving way to the unprecedented global warming of the twentieth century
(76–79). In the instrumental temperature record, perhaps the clearest example of
abrupt change occurs in the late 1970s when global temperature began an unusu-
ally steep rise (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp). This transition coincides with a
step-like change in the state of the tropical Pacific toward more El Niño-like con-
ditions and in the extratropical Pacific toward generally warmer conditions and
altered circulation (80, 81). Although the Pacific signature of this 1976 shift may
have reversed recently, global temperatures continue to rise unabated. Interglacial
abrupt temperature shifts are large enough to be of significant human interest. For
example, warming temperatures have already had an impact on seasonal snow melt
and consequent changes in water resource availability (which occur independently
of changes in precipitation amounts) (82).
However, abrupt temperature change is not the biggest story nor the most im-
portant likely abrupt change concern for society. More important are potential
“warm-climate surprises” (83, 84) that relate to abrupt shifts in regional climate
variability and moisture availability. Anyone making a livelihood in an arid or semi-
arid region knows that, although temperature change is important, the real focus
is on water. And the paleoclimatic record is rich in evidence for abrupt hydrologic
shifts.
The goal of this section is to describe the most rapidly expanding area of
abrupt climate change research—that focused on past, and potential future, “warm-
climate” abrupt climate change. We review the considerable work focused on
the North Atlantic, highlighting that there is still important uncertainty regarding
the ability of the MOC in the Atlantic to respond abruptly in the absence of
large ice age ice sheets. We then review what is known about abrupt changes in
hydrological regimes. Of particular interest are the patterns and processes related
to megadroughts (droughts that persist from one to several decades) and abrupt
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changes in drought frequency, duration, and extent. Although less work has focused
on abrupt warm-climate change related to flood regimes, ENSO, tropical storms
(i.e., hurricanes and typhoons), and monsoon dynamics (e.g., in Africa and Asia),
there is enough literature to review these types of highly relevant abrupt change. As
with the case of abrupt drought and megadrought dynamics, the science associated
with past abrupt flood, hurricane, and monsoon change clearly points to the ability
of the climate system to behave in ways that can have large impacts on human and
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natural systems.
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Perhaps the most interesting aspects of the 8.2-ka event were its apparent global
reach and that many of the impacts were hydrological rather than thermal in nature.
As with the abrupt cold events of glacial and deglacial times, the global climate
system clearly has the ability to propagate abrupt events in one region of the globe
(often the North Atlantic) to far-off locations. Even though the 8.2-ka event was
smaller than its cold-climate cousins, it was able to cause cooling and especially
drying in the tropical North Atlantic and northern Africa (48, 89, 90). Simulations
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of the event also suggest that there should have been related weakening of parts
of the Asian monsoon system, but observational evidence is sparse and equivocal,
particularly over monsoon Asia (90–92).
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decades or longer and the occurrence of long (multicentury) regimes in which con-
ditions significantly drier than present prevail (99). One lesson from paleoclimate
data is that the transition to prolonged drought is almost always abrupt (nonlin-
ear with respect to an identifiable forcing such as orbital forcing) on the human
timescales. However, as for much abrupt climate change, the physical mechanisms
of prolonged droughts remain poorly defined. SST patterns play a significant role
in regional drought [e.g., (100, 101)], and the combination of SST anomalies in dif-
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ferent ocean basins can set up drought anomalies that span one or more continents
(62, 102). A common inference is that droughts are set up by SST anomalies (often
small) and are at least partially maintained through land-surface and atmospheric
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prise a part of the climatic future in the western United States. Past warm periods ap-
pear to have experienced more, longer drought (104). A “perfect ocean for drought”
(102) includes a substantial warming component in the tropical Indo-Pacific, and
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years after AD 1250 (136, 137). The latter change apparently coincided with the
abrupt change to a wetter hydrologic regime across the upper midwestern United
States (110, 136) (Figure 2). In the southwestern United States, flood frequency
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increased suddenly at around 5 ka and declined at about 3.6 ka; high flood frequency
also occurred between ∼800–1000 years ago and during the past 600 years (135,
138). Although data are limited and chronologies are imprecise, these studies
imply a broad anticorrelation between flood frequency in the southwestern and
the upper midwestern United States (136). Analysis of these records links flood
frequency to changes in mean seasonal or annual precipitation, often associated
with relatively modest changes in atmospheric circulation; flood frequency also
seems to rise during intervals of climate change (136). In the Southwest, flooding
is often related to El Niño conditions, and may reflect long-term variability in that
system (135, 138) (see section 3.7). Although it is beyond the scope of this review
to discuss the global evidence of abrupt changes in flood regimes, North America
is not alone in experiencing such abrupt changes.
circulation and regional large storm landfall frequency appear to have been abrupt
(143).
The longest documentary record of past tropical storm frequency comes from
China, where a 900+ year record of past typhoon activity indicates multiple
decades-long periods (e.g., AD 1660–1680 and AD 1850–1880) with anoma-
lously high typhoon-landfall frequencies (146). As in the case with the North
Atlantic, atmospheric circulation–driven shifts in storm tracks are the most likely
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mechanism behind the storm variability reflected in this long record. Changes in
typhoon tracks over the South China Sea and eastern Asia are also evident in the late
twentieth century, associated with the changing strength of the regional subtropical
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high (147).
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Clement et al. (41) demonstrate how orbital forcing of a coupled Pacific model leads
to sudden, nonlinear responses in ENSO frequency and amplitude, as the system
abruptly locks to (or unlocks from) the seasonal cycle and interannual variance
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shuts down for a century or more. Paleoclimate data support the idea of ENSO’s
response to orbital forcing and other slowly varying boundary conditions [e.g.,
(42)], but continuous records that allow the characterization of abrupt transitions
are rare. One site in Ecuador has yielded records indicating sudden changes in the
frequency and amplitude of strong El Niño events, superimposed on a pattern of
increasing frequency through the Holocene (72).
In the last millennium, reconstructions of ENSO from corals indicate that the
amplitude of interannual variability may have changed significantly even in the ab-
sence of large forcing changes (153). These variations are likely the result of both
significant internal variance and the system’s response to small radiative forc-
ing changes, particularly volcanic (153, 154). The variance spectrum of ENSO
changes significantly even over shorter intervals; for example, in the late nine-
teenth century, decadal variance appears to dominate tropical Pacific records, and
interannual variance was weak (155). The result of such a change is that ENSO-
related anomalies (such as drought) (156) persist longer, with potentially more
damaging consequences as the mechanisms for coping with briefer impacts are
overwhelmed. Spatial patterns of drought linked to ENSO have also changed in the
past century, perhaps as a consequence of changing conditions outside the tropical
Pacific (157). It is uncertain how ENSO will change in the future in response to
anthropogenic forcing, but this system clearly has the capability for abrupt changes
in frequency, amplitude, and teleconnection pattern.
that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are responding more rapidly to
recent climate warming than anticipated and in ways that are more dynamically
complicated than represented in state-of-the-art ice sheet models (158, 159). This
raises concern that both ice sheets, but particularly the Antarctic ice sheet, could
lose mass more quickly than by simple surface melting alone.
Second, new research focusing on the last time global sea level was higher than
today (the last interglaciation, or LIG, approximately 129–116 ka) demonstrates
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that relatively modest warming can precipitate abrupt ice sheet and sea level re-
sponses (Figure 3). During the LIG, sea level was 4–6 m higher than present.
These new studies suggest that ∼2.2 to 3.4 m of this rise came from Greenland
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and other Arctic ice fields (93) and that the remainder likely came from Antarc-
tica (160)—most likely the West Antarctica ice sheet (WAIS) (161)—despite only
minor high-latitude Southern Hemisphere warming at the time. These findings
resurrect the original assertion of Mercer (162) that the WAIS could be quite sus-
ceptible to collapse in the future. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that
the rates of WAIS-driven sea level rise were fast, possibly exceeding 1 m per cen-
tury (160, 163). Given that warming temperatures and other factors could soon be
more conducive to ice sheet melting and collapse than at 129 ka (160), it is prudent
to be concerned about sea level rise starting abruptly in the twenty-first century
and lasting for centuries.
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similar magnitude eruption in the future would no doubt have serious climatic
implications.
Perhaps the most serious concern in terms of extreme abrupt climate change
threats is that associated with the potential release of methane hydrates from
clathrates, frozen methane trapped in the sediments along ocean margins (168).
Recent estimates suggest that as much as 2000 to 4000 gigatons (Gt) of carbon
could be released from these clathrate reservoirs if we allow atmospheric con-
centrations of CO2 to reach levels three times higher than preindustrial (168). If
such a release occurred, it would amplify tremendously the anthropogenic climate
forcing, perhaps in a very short time span; current fossil fuel emissions are approxi-
mately 6 Gt/yr (1). Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a clathrate methane release
along with subsequent abrupt climate and ocean change apparently did occur ap-
proximately 55 Mya, with the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum
(PETM). The abrupt global warming associated with this event lasted ∼100,000
years (169–171). The PETM increase in atmospheric CO2 led to a decrease in
ocean pH and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonates (172); this process is
expected for ongoing and future increases in CO2 (173, 174). Unlike the case of
meteorite impacts and unusually large volcanic eruptions, humans have the power
to precipitate or preclude a large release of seafloor sediment carbon, along with
the abrupt climate and ocean changes that would result. Minimizing the causes
of anthropogenic climate change also minimizes the risk of clathrate methane
release.
climate system processes alone. The recent U.S. National Academy of Sciences
review of abrupt climate change science (2, 175) suggests that anthropogenic forc-
ing may increase the odds of abrupt climate change, based on the likelihood that
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accelerated climate change forced by greenhouse gases will cause more abrupt
change thresholds to be crossed. This is evident for many of the types of abrupt
change reviewed above. Global warming and the associated enhanced hydrological
cycle will likely increase the odds of abrupt transitions to more drought- and flood-
prone regimes in some regions, most likely those areas that already experience
regular drought or floods. Rapid climate warming is expected to drive ice sheet
melting and collapse and, in doing so, cause abrupt sea level rise. An anthropogeni-
cally increased flux of freshwater into the North Atlantic from ice sheet melting is
the most likely way to accelerate the current freshening of the high-latitude North
Atlantic and to drive an abrupt decrease in Atlantic MOC. Theory and observations
support the likelihood of continued intensification of tropical storms and chang-
ing storm tracks associated with circulation changes; paleoclimatic observations
suggest storm track changes can occur abruptly.
In a geological context, the accelerating warming of Earth represents an abrupt
change that is unprecedented, perhaps, since the onset of the PETM, ∼55 Mya.
Of course, as discussed in section 5, the PETM was likely triggered by an abrupt
release of marine sediment methane hydrates (much of which was probably oxi-
dized to CO2 ). Humans appear to have the opportunity to push Earth past a similar
threshold as well and, in doing so, possibly ensure that that human-driven abrupt
warming is truly unprecedented in the history of life on Earth.
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tions (see section 3.5) suggests that an abrupt increase in strong tropical storms has
already begun. As discussed in section 3.6, Asian and African monsoon systems
may be starting to change abruptly. Although statistically robust attribution is not
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yet possible, the ongoing near-decadal drought of western North America appears
linked to tropical SSTs that are highly suggestive of anthropogenic forcing (176).
Moreover, the severity of this current drought has been made worse by concurrent
record warmth, highlighting that this western U.S. drought may be the first anthro-
pogenic drought of the twenty-first century, with significant human and ecological
impacts [e.g., (177)].
As discussed in section 5, ice sheet melting is accelerating to rates greater
than anticipated. This change, plus the general unprecedented meltdown of the
Arctic (178), highlights that humans could be on track to push—during the current
century—Earth’s system across a threshold beyond which abrupt ice sheet collapse
and sea level rise is inevitable (178). Although less certain, the same could be true
for changes in the North Atlantic MOC. There are signs that rapid freshening
of the North Atlantic could soon trigger important changes in ocean circulation
(179–181).
7. CONCLUSIONS
The state-of-the-art understanding of abrupt climate change indicates the following
primary concerns for the broader climate and global change community:
Paleoclimate records demonstrate that abrupt climate change is not excep-
tional but rather is a normal way in which the climate system responds to
changes in forcing.
Regional forcing can trigger widespread (global and far-field remote) changes.
Abrupt climate change occurs naturally in aspects of climate that are highly
relevant to society (e.g., droughts, floods, tropical storms, and sea level
change), and many of these aspects are changing now in ways consistent
with projected responses to anthropogenic forcing. Thus, the potential for
abrupt change in important components of the climate system is very real
and potentially immediate.
The emerging theory of abrupt climate change suggests that we should ex-
pect the climate system to respond quickly without warning to current and
future climate forcing in ways whose specifics are difficult to predict with
geographic and temporal specificity.
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Some abrupt climate change threats are plausible in coming years to decades
(e.g., drought and tropical storms), and these changes warrant public discus-
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Society has two primary response strategies for coping with abrupt climate
change.
1. There are many no-regrets steps society can make to reduce vulnerability
to abrupt climate system change particularly because greenhouse gas emis-
sions to date have already committed Earth to additional climate change.
For example, reducing vulnerability to prolonged drought, sea level rise, and
severe tropical storms is prudent regardless of whether future anthropogenic
climate change is small or large.
2. Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing will likely reduce the prob-
ability of several high-impact types of abrupt climate change (i.e., ice sheet
disintegration, rapid large sea level rise, hot megadrought, intensified trop-
ical storms, abrupt change in ocean circulation, and ocean acidification).
Climate change is accelerating and may soon take us across thresholds be-
yond which Earth is committed to increased probabilities of substantial and
abrupt climate change. Effective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
should become an immediate priority if we wish to avoid crossing these
thresholds.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank the many colleagues and students who have discussed abrupt climate
system change with us over the last decade. Special thanks to David Anderson,
Diana Liverman, and David Schimel for their advice and helpful reviews of the
manuscript.
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192. Behl RJ, Kennett JP. 1996. Brief inter- mate Change at Millennial Time Scales.
stadial events in the Santa Barbara basin, Washington, DC: Am. Geophys. Union
HI-RES-EG31-01-Overpeck.qxd 10/10/06 12:47 PM Page 1
-38
-40 0
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-42 0.5
1
δ18O (‰)
B. SST,
-44 Iberian margin
1.5
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2
7
Reflectance (% at 550 nm )
2.5
9
11 C.Precipitation, 3
13 N. South America 3.5
15
17
-0.5
19
0
21
δ18O (‰)
23 0.5
25 D. SST, Santa 1
Barbara basin
1.5
2
-9.5 2.5
-8.5 3
δ18O (‰)
-5.5
-4.5
YD H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
Figure 1 A subset of the many records worldwide that show cold-climate abrupt change,
particularly Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events. (A) Greenland ice core oxygen isotope
record (182), usually interpreted as local temperature. (B) Sea surface temperature (SST)
reconstructed from a planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope record off the Iberian margin
(183). (C) Cariaco Basin sediment reflectance, representing productivity and river-borne
terrigenous material (northern South America) (53). Increased productivity and terrigenous
input are driven by regional rainfall, linked to Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
by UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON - HEALTH SCIENCES LIBRARIES on 01/18/07. For personal use only.
position; lower reflectance values thus correspond to more organic-rich and darker sedi-
ments, higher productivity, higher rainfall, and a relatively northward mean position of the
Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2006.31:1-31. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org
ITCZ. (D) SST reconstructed from planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from the
Santa Barbara basin (184). Results from two species are shown here, Globigerina bulloides
(orange) and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (pink). (E) Speleothem oxygen isotope
record from Hulu Cave, near Nanjing, China (49). Values represent the strength of summer
relative to the winter monsoon. Bars (gray) indicate selected D/O event visible in all
records, and the thicker gray bar at left, labeled YD, highlights the Younger Dryas event.
Heinrich events are shown by boxes at the top and bottom, labeled H1 through H6.
HI-RES-EG31-01-Overpeck.qxd 10/10/06 12:47 PM Page 3
1800
1600
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1400
1200
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Ye ar A.D.
1000
800
D.
600
400
200
Wet ter Dr ier
0
-200
-400
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 -0.2 0 0.2 22 21 20 19 18
Nor malized deviation Nor malized Reconstr ucted
from mean log salinity devia tion from precipitation
mean total P (cm/year)
Figure 2 An example of abrupt change in hydrologic regime during the Holocene, in the
western United States. Records A-C each reflect precipitation minus evaporation and were
derived from radiocarbon-dated records of diatom species abundance in northern Great
Plains lakes (110). Records A and B are reconstructions of salinity from Coldwater Lake
and Moon Lake, respectively, and record C is a reconstruction of total phosphorus (P)
(related to salinity) from Elk Lake. Records D and E are based on tree rings (thus precise-
ly dated). Record D is the drought area index over the western United States, which reflects
the number of grid spares (out of 103) experiencing drought (104). Record E is a precipi-
tation reconstruction from the White Mountains in southeast California (103). The lake
records suggest a hydrologic transition around AD 1200, with the sign of the transition
reflecting that one area became abruptly drier at the same time the other area turned abrupt-
ly wetter. The tree-ring records indicate a transition around AD 1300, with greater inci-
dence of drought and fewer wet intervals before this time. These shifts may be the same
event, given the error in radiocarbon lake sediment chronologies, or the western U.S.
abrupt change may have occurred following the Great Plains shift.
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C-4
Month
40
Month
A 20 60 40 20
0 A
0
HI-RES-EG31-01-Overpeck.qxd
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Modern sea level Modern sea level
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120 120
Super-interglacial (includes threshold above which GIS melts; possible sea level rise > 1 m/year)
Deglaciation/interglacial (GIS stable at Holocene configuration; deglacial sea level rise up to ~1 m/year)
Initial deglaciation (GIS begins to melt slowly from glacial configuration; sea level rise << 1m/year)
Figure 3 Abrupt ice sheet retreat and sea level rise. Insolation (at 70°N, anomaly from
present) and reconstructed global sea level rise over the past two major deglaciations in
Earth’s history, illustrating how the rate of sea level rise depends on the magnitude and rate
of radiative forcing change. Over the last 20 kyrs, summer radiative forcing peaked at
50 W m2 owing to changes in Earth’s orbit and did not cause significant retreat of the
Greenland ice sheet (GIS) from the present day configuration of the ice sheet. In contrast,
the insolation anomaly was 40% larger (70 W m2) over the penultimate deglaciation
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as well as into the subsequent interglaciation (the Eemian) when global sea level was 4 to
6 m above present (178). Sea level rise was significantly more abrupt over this earlier peri-
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od, and retreat of Arctic ice fields (mostly the GIS) was substantial—between 2.2 and
3.4 m of sea level rise resulted from this ice field melting (93), with the rest apparently
coming from the Antarctic ice sheet (178). Thus, summer warming over Greenland in
excess of the Holocene, and less than the last previous interglaciation, could cause future
abrupt sea level change—a threshold that could be reached in the twenty-first century
(178). Sources: insolation data (185), sea level summaries for the last 20 kyrs (186) and for
the period 140 to 120 ka (163).
P1: JRX
September 8, 2006 9:50 Annual Reviews AR289-FM
CONTENTS
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vii
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September 8, 2006 9:50 Annual Reviews AR289-FM
viii CONTENTS
INDEXES
Cumulative Index of Contributing Authors, Volumes 22–31 479
Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2006.31:1-31. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org
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