Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 7, 2023
Market Outlook Major economic events
Indian markets are likely to open negative today tracking Date Event Country Period Expected Previous
negative global cues. 07-Jul FX Reserves USE IN Jun - -
Sobha The sales value at | 1465 crore was up ~28% YoY The overall demand seems to be steady. Key
during Q1 with average price realisation (increased to will leverage trend ahead, where company
| 10506/sq ft, up 24.6% YoY) mainly due to project has sharply reduced debt in FY23
mix. Sales volume remained healthy at 1.39 mn sq ft
(up 3% YoY). We highlight that sales volume growth ↔
for Q1 was driven by new launch in Kerala , while
Bengaluru at 0.84 million sq feet (forming 60% of
sales volume) was relatively muted.
The Phoneix The Phoenix Mills (PML) continues to witness Q1 overall performance is likely to remain
Mills consumption across malls exceeding pre-covid levels, decent for PML, albeit trend ahead will be key
albeit with moderate growth in Q1. With these, total . PML continues to be a key beneficiary of
consumption during Q1 stood at | 2575 crore, up 18% healthy consumption recovery at malls and
YoY. Excl. new malls contribution, like to like remains a quasi-play on India’s consumption
consumption was up 9% YoY (one off renovations story, given the quality of assets, healthy
impacted growth). Retail collections stood at | 621 balance sheet & strategic expansion plans. ↔
crore in Q1, showing a YoY growth of 18%. New malls such as Indore (started in
Occupancy level for St Regis, Marriott (Agra) stood at December) and Ahmedabad (began in
82%, 72% respectively. Commercial segment saw February, 2023), alongwith new malls in FY24
new leasing of 0.85 lakh square feet in Q1 vs. 1.3 lakh will boost the overall growth ahead.
square feet in Q4.
GM GM Q1FY24 net revenues grew 4% YoY to | 147 GM Breweries results indicate lowered
Breweries crore, while its PAT grew 23% to | 20 crore. EBITDA inflationary impact on COGS side (mainly
margins expanded 320 bps to 18.4%. The company includes rectified spirit and PET). For the
continued to disappoint on the dividend front (no liquor industry in general Q1 is expected to
dividend announced in Q1 inspite of expected higher witness QoQ flat to positive inflationary
cash surplus) impact (mainly due to continued higher ENA ↔
prices, while others such as paper and PET
will see softening, whereas glass on the other
side will gradually soften due to lowered
natural gas prices).
proceeds to repay debt and expand capacity. Currently, the size of its renewable energy portfolio stands at
20.4 gigawatts (Gw) — 8.2 Gw operational and another 12.2 Gw under-construction and near-construction
projects. The company is targeting a 45-Gw portfolio by 2030
• To push China like infrastructure development and financial growth, India will n need Rs 845-880 lakh crore
investment between 2023 and 2047. It has recommended the roadmap for augmenting key infrastructures
to meet future need by setting the target to increase highway length by 1.6 times, port capacit by four times
and doubling the railway network, including the laying of 20,000 kms elevated tracks and 4,500 km bullet
train corridors in the next 24 years. There is also the plan to take the number of Vande Bharat trains to
4,500.
• GE Shipping has delivered its 2004 built crude carrier to its buyer. The vessel was sold in April 2023. Its
current fleet stands at 42 vessels, amid record shipping asset prices.
• IOC and Praj have signed a term agreement to strengthen biofuels capacity in India. Biofuels covered in the
MoU consists of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Ethanol, compressed Bio-Gas, Biodiesel and Bio-
bitumen.
• AllCargo demerged entity - Transindia Real Estate Limited (TREL) had executed Business Transfer
Agreement with Premier Heavy Lift Private Limited (PHL) on April 27, 2023, for sale of crane division as a
going concern on a slump sale basis. TREL has completed the sale of crane division to PHL on a slump sale
basis on July 4, 2023.
• Aster DM has acquired additional 2.36% stake in Malabar Institute of Medical Scienc es Ltd (MIMS), a
material subsidiary of the Company from several minority shareholders as on July 05, 2023. Consequent
to the said acquisition, shareholding of the Company in MIMS has increased from 76.01% to 78.37%. MIMS
is a material a subsidiary of Aster DM Healthcare Limited and operates hospitals in Kerala.
• HCG has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement on July 06, 2023, with Dr Ajay Mehta, Dr Suchitra
Mehta, shareholders of Nagpur Cancer Hospital and Research Institute (NCHRI) for the acquisition of entire
equity share capital in NCHRI. The cost of acquisition would be | 14 crore and the sum payable to Dr. Ajay
Mehta would be | 17 crore (includes deferred consideration of |4 crore)
• As per media sources, Alkem labs has forayed into Opthalmology segment with the launch of extensive
portfolio of Eye care products
• As per media sources, the Cabo Delgado gasfield in Mozambique, in which Indian companies hold a 30%
stake, is expected to resume production this month after terror attacks threatened to derail it. ONGC Videsh
holds 16%, while BPRL Ventures Mozambique BV, a subsidiary of BPCL, and Oil India Ltd hold 10% and
4% respectively
• As per media sources, ONGC is preparing to map India's geothermal energy sources, which have a potential
capacity of 10 GW. Initial studies have indicated the presence of abundant geothermal sources in Ladakh,
Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat (Cambay Basin and Ankleshwar), Andhra Pradesh (Kowthalam), and
Chhattisgarh. The focus will primarily be on Ladakh, followed by Gujarat, and later on the southern regions.
Last month, ONGC signed an agreement with Iceland GeoSurvey (ISOR) to collaborate on it
• IOCL, Chennai, has committed to invest | 54000 crore in various projects in Tamil Nadu in the next few
years, including a 9 MMTPA grass-root refinery at an estimated cost of | 35580 crore.
• As per media sources, RIL and Adani Total Gas (ATGL) are planning to set up 10 compressed biogas (CBG)
plants each, across the country. These plants will be of upto 30 tonnes per annum capacity. Five plants will
be set in the next five years. The rest would come up later. The companies would invest up to | 2500 crore
each in setting up these plants
• As per media sources, Promoters of Aster DM Healthcare led by Azad Moopen have initiated stake-sale
talks with private equity groups such as Blackstone and KKR among others. The promoters may even be
open to selling a controlling stake in their India-listed hospital chain to capitalise on the ongoing sectoral
consolidation.
Recovery to sustain!!!
A b out the stock: NRB was incorporated in 1965 as an Indo-French venture and
pioneered the production of needle and roller bearings in India.
• NRB is India’s largest needle and cylindrical roller bearings producer. Today
90% of vehicles on Indian roads run on NRB parts
Conviction Idea
Particulars
industry including 2W, PV, CV
Particular Amount
• Company exports its products to approx. 45 countries worldwide including Market Capitalization 1,980
France, Italy, the US, Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, Bangladesh etc Total Debt (FY23) 322
Cash and Investments (FY23) 83
Key I n vest men t T h esi s: EV 2,302
52 week H/L (|) (BSE) 212/ 115
• Do mestic and Exports to drive growth: We believe with strong traction with
Equity capital 19.4
export clients, we expect markets to deliver 15% YoY growth in FY24
Face value (|) 2.0
whereas domestic markets are expected to grow by 10% YoY led by
recovery in 2-Wheeler and CV segment. Hence, we expect revenues to grow Shareholding Pattern Key Fina
at a CAGR of 11% over FY23-FY25E to |1308 crore. Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23
Promoters 49.9 49.9 49.9 50.1
• Ma rgins improvement to boost P AT CAGR at 24% o ver FY23-FY25E: FY23 FII 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.3
was a tale of two half wherein H1FY23 saw margins falling to 10% given DII 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5
sharp rise in prices of key input i.e., steel and the lag at which the same was Others 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.1
passed on to OEM’s. However, in Q4FY23, the price hikes got fully
implemeted the same reflected in significant improvement in margins which Risks to our call
rose to 20.5% in the same period. Going ahead, with no major volatility 1) Higher/lower than expected
expected in steel prices, double digit growth in export markets we expect growth in auto sector
margins to improve to 16.7% and 17.6% in FY24E and FY25E respectively. 2) Volatility in Raw material prices could
300 24000
Ra t i n g a n d T a rg et P ri c e
20000
• We believe with a visibility of 24% PAT CAGR over FY23-25E and a 200 16000
controlled leverage, NRB is highly undervalued across the bearings space 12000
(other players quoting at 40x-50x on 2 year forward EPS). Even discounting 100 8000
the fact that it has one segment exposure unlike other bearings companies 4000
still the stock remains undervalued and we expect a rerating to set in. 0 0
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Research Analyst
Chirag Shah
Shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com
Vijay Goel
Vijay.goel@icicisecurities.com
Key Financial Summary
5 Year CAGR 2 Year CAGR
Financials FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
(FY18-23) (FY23-25E)
Net Sales 762.4 944.2 1,057.2 3.9% 1,175.6 1,307.9 11.2%
EBITDA 85.8 103.9 146.5 -2.7% 196.6 230.8 25.5%
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Profit 55.7 75.6 94.9 0.4% 120.5 146.2 24.1%
EPS (|) 5.6 7.6 9.8 12.4 15.1
P/E (x) 36.9 27.2 21.0 16.6 13.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.6 15.2 13.0 11.2 9.4
RoCE (%) 11.8 13.7 15.4 17.3 19.3
s
Results/Events Calendar
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