Opening Bell

June 20, 2023

Market Outlook Major economic events this week
Indian markets are likely to open negative today tracking Date Event Country Period Expected Previous
negative global cues. 20-Jun Industrial Production JP Jun -0.4% 1.1%
20-Jun Building Permits US Jun 1.435M 1.417M
Market Yesterday
▪ Domestic markets ended lower on the back of losses in
Top Fundamental Picks
banks, which was partly offset by gains in real estate & Company Name Research Report CMP Target Price
healthcare. Reliance Industries 2443 2850
PCBL 145 200
Key Developments Gujarat
3198 4000
▪ As per media sources, Maersk "one-country, one-price” Fluorochemicals
offering promises low-cost storage and distribution
options for Indian brands using its countrywide Daily Technical Calls
warehouse network at a pre-declared, flat rate | 80 rupees ▪ Buy Cipla in the range 1006-1008
for an order weighing no more than .5kg. ▪ Sell Gujarat Gas in the range 474.50-475.50
▪ Timken Singapore, the parent of Timken India, has ▪ All recommendations of June Future
proposed to sell up to 8.4% stake, or 63 lakh shares, in its See Momentum Pick for more details
India listed firm for 1,890 crores on Tuesday through open
market transaction.
▪ Abrdn, promoter of HDFC AMC, is set to exit the company CNX Nifty Technical Picture
through sale of the entire 10.2% stake. With this deal, Intraday Short term
Abrdn will fully exit the company before the merger of the Trend Range Bound Up
parent company. Support 18700-18640 18400
Resistance 18790-18850 18900
Bulk Deals 20 day EMA 18577
Company Client Name Type No. of Price (|) 200 day EMA 17814
NSE
SKIPPER SANTOSH INDUSTRIES LTD SELL 10,00,000 168.55
BSE
Index Movement
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yrfwd)
SHRIRAMFIN TPG INDIA INVESTMENTS II INC SELL 99,18,348 1401.0
Sensex 63,168 63,385 -0.3 0.9 3.8 23.2
Nifty 18,755 18,826 -0.4 1.2 3.6 22.6
Nifty Heat Map
HDFC 627 Bajaj 7,386 Bajaj 1,542 1,094 3,210 Institutional Activity
TechM TCS
Life 2.8% Finance 2.5% Finserv 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% CY20 CY21 YTD CY22 Yesterday Last 5 Days
Sun 1,002 1,011 158 2,969 1,294 FII (| cr) 64,379 -95,085 -2,60,392 -1,031 6,242
Cipla ONGC Titan Infosys DII (| cr) -28,544 95,934 2,59,089 -365 -840
Pharma 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
HDFC 2,655 3,585 454 HDFC 1,604 2,366
Ltd
Divis Lab ITC
Bank
L&T Markets Today
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Commodities Close Previous Chng (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
1,281 1,403 114 426 Asian 3,310 Gold (|/10 gm) 59,180 59,354 -0.3 -1.6 7.6
SBI Life M&M Tata Steel Hindalco
-0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% Paints -0.2% Silver (|/kg) 72,495 72,688 -0.3 0.5 4.4
380 2,683 569 5,021 375 Crude ($/barrel) 76.4 76.6 -0.3 5.1 -11.1
Wipro HUL SBI Britannia BPCL Copper ($/tonne) 8,555 8,556 0.0 6.0 2.3
-0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%
Currency
JSW 772 227 Tata 566 Tata 857 4,879 USD/INR 81.9 82.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Coal India Dr Reddy
Steel -0.6% -0.6% Motors -0.7% Consum -0.7% -0.7% EUR/USD 1.1 1.1 -0.2 2.1 2.0
9,532 22,795 686 8,269 1,138 USD/YEN 141.9 142.0 -0.1 -1.8 -7.6
Maruti Nestle UPL Ultratech HCl Tech
-0.7% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% -0.9% ADRs
HDFC Bank 66.5 64.6 2.9 3.2 -2.9
Indusind 1,301 4,597 Reliance 2,552 Apollo 5,145 Grasim 1,761
Bajaj Auto ICICI Bank 22.9 22.9 0.0 -0.2 4.5
Bank -1.0% -1.0% Ind. -1.0% Hospitals -1.1% Ind -1.1% Infosys 15.8 15.6 1.3 -0.8 -12.1
Bharti 828 ICICI 923 3,497 186 Power 243 Dr Reddys Labs 60.3 59.4 1.4 9.2 16.5
Eicher NTPC
Airtel -1.2% Bank -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% Grid -1.4% Wipro 4.7 4.7 -0.6 -4.3 0.2
Adani 736 966 2,783 Kotak 1,825 2,401
Axis Bank Hero Moto Adani Ent
Ports -1.6% -1.6% -1.7% Bank -1.8% -4.3%

Advance/Decline
Advances Declines Unchanged
BSE 1613 2057 157
NSE 1437 866 122
Opening Bell
June 20, 2023
Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Key Economic Indicator Period Latest Prior Values
150000

76,383
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 4.50% 4.50%

66,975
62,365

61,928
59,818
120000

50,455
RBI Repo Rate N/A 6.50% 6.25%
90000
RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 3.35% 3.35%

6,062
60000

4,527
4,520

4,446
4,347
3,774
CPI YY Apr 4.70% 5.66%
30000
Current Account Balance Q4 -18.2bln $ -30.9bln $
0
Exports - USD Apr 34.66 bln$ 38.38 bln$
FX Reserves, USD Final Jun 595.07 bln$ 589.14 bln$
12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 19-Jun
BSE Cash NSE Cash
GDP Quarterly yy Q4 6.10% 4.40%
GDP Annual FY23 7.20% 6.80%
Imports - USD Apr 49.9 bln $ 58.11 bln $
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
60000000

4,67,22,468
Industrial Output yy Mar 1.1% 5.6%

2,18,75,885

2,14,35,721
Manufacturing Output yy May 0.5% 5.6%

1,57,73,932

1,44,38,130
1,33,93,931
Trade Deficit Govt - USD Apr -15.24 bln $ -19.70 bln $ 40000000
WPI Food yy Apr 3.5% 5.5%
WPI Fuel yy Apr 0.9% 9.0% 20000000
WPI Inflation yy May -0.9% 1.3%
WPI Manuf Inflation yy Apr -2.4% -0.8%
0
12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 19-Jun
NSE Derivative

Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)

Security name Action Ex Date Record Date Status Price (|)
Real Estate 11.9
Hindustan Unilever Ltd Final Dividend 19-Jun-23 - - 22.0 Healthcare 10.2
Bank Of India Final Dividend 19-Jun-23 - - 2.0 Consumer Durables 10.0
Capital Goods 9.3
CEAT Ltd Final Dividend 20-Jun-23 20-Jun-23 - 12.0 BSE Small Cap 8.8
Newgen Software Technologies Ltd Final Dividend 20-Jun-23 20-Jun-23 - 5.0 BSE Midcap 8.2
IndiaMART InterMESH Ltd Bonus 21-Jun-23 20-Jun-23 1:1 - Auto 6.3
FMCG 6.2
Oberoi Realty Final Dividend 21-Jun-23 - - 4.0 Power 6.2
Polycab India Final Dividend 21-Jun-23 - - 20.0 Metals 6.1
PSU 4.2
TATA ELXSI LTD. Final Dividend 22-Jun-23 - - 60.6 IT 3.0
TATA STEEL LTD. Final Dividend 22-Jun-23 - - 3.6 Oil & Gas 1.5
Dalmia Bharat Ltd Final Dividend 23-Jun-23 23-Jun-23 - 5.0 Banks -1.3
Punjab National Bank Final Dividend 23-Jun-23 - - 0.7 -15.0 -5.0 5.0 15.0
(%)
Raymond Final Dividend 23-Jun-23 23-Jun-23 - 3.0
 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Key News for today

Company/ News View Impact
Industry
Maersk In a direct competition to players like Delhivery, The fee will include 60 days of storage,
(GPPL BlueDart etc, As per media sources, Maersk "one- delivery across India, covering 18,000 pin
parent) country, one-price” offering promises low-cost storage codes in 48 hours, 20% returns to origin and
and distribution options for Indian brands using its no fixed monthly costs or minimum
countrywide warehouse network at a pre-declared, flat orders. Maersk operates some 20
rate | 80 rupees for an order weighing no more than warehouses across India, and to start in e- ↔
.5kg, versus the fixed monthly costs retailers or fulfilment, the carrier has selected five
manufacturers typically incur using third-party locations, Bhiwandi, Bangalore, Chennai,
fulfilment centres Kolkata and Farukhnagar. It has a large road
fleet.

Key Developments (Continued…)

• Maruti Suzuki has commenced pre-launch bookings for its upcoming premium 3-row SUV i.e. INVICTO at
the Nexa dealership channel at an initial payment of Rs. 25,000. The model is slated to be launched on 5th
July 2023.
• Balkrishna Industries has informed about resuming operations at its Bhuj plant which were suspended for
the past week due to cyclone Biparjoy.
• As per media sources government is likely to make AC cabins mandatory for Commercial vehicles in order
to provide better driving conditions for drivers.
• Som Distilleries has commenced trial production with enhanced capacity at its Odisha Plant and
commercial production is expected early next month. The plant would also be partly used to produce
popular brands from Carlsberg portfolio.
• HPCL has secured a long term contract from ONGC Petro additions Ltd (OPaL) for supply of Natural Gas to
their Mega Petrochemical Complex at Dahej (0.27 MT over Oct 23 to May 26). It will be used to operate its
Captive Power Plant (CPP) for supporting power and steam requirements.
• HPCL has entered into an agreement with Automin Car Services, a subsidiary of Petromin Corporation,
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to establish co-branded HP-Petromin Express vehicle service centres
across India. Petromin is a leading mobility solutions player in automotive technology with more than 700
multi-brand quick-service outlets across GCC. The strategic allaince will provide services such as lube
change, light repairs, periodic maintenance, battery replacements, tire services, air conditioning repairs
and eco carwash facilities in in HPCL's select retail outlets in metros and other major cities across India.
• Lupin Limited (Lupin) today announced the launch of Thiamine Hydrochloride Injection USP, 200 mg/2 mL
(100 mg/mL) Multiple-dose Vials in the US. It had an estimated annual sales of US$ 35 million in the U.S.
(IQVIA MAT April 2023)
• Laurus labs has signed an MOA with IIT Kanpur (IITK) to bring novel gene therapy assets to market. As per
MOA, Laurus labs will in-license few gene therapy assets and will provide research grant for advancing
these products through the pre-clinical development
• Lupin has received the EIR from the USFDA for its API manufacturing facility located in Visakhapatnam
(Vizag). The facility was inspected from March 6 to March 10, 2023.
• Sun Pharma has received Health Canada approval for Winlevi. Its a first androgen receptor drug indicated
for treatment of Acne
• As per media sources, IPCA API manufacturing facility at Ratlam was issued 11 observations by the USFDA.
The plant which is under a USFDA import slert since 2015 was inspected from June 5 to June 13. Besides
the Ratlam plant, 2 more plants one at SEZ Indore and the other at Silvassa, manufacturing formulations,
are also under import alert since 2015
• As per media reports, Reliance Retail’s online platform AJIO, witnessed 40% growth in overall order
volumes over last summer season during its flagship sales event. Half of the total orders came from Tier II-
III cities.
• Baring private equity Asia and ChrysCapital has acquired a 90% stake in HDFC Credila Financial services.
This deal is undertaken at a valuation of Rs 10067 crore. HDFC will continue to hold 10% stake in the
business. This deal is on expected lines adhering to regulations and a step towards closure of the merger
• Abrdn, promoter of HDFC AMC, is set to exit the company through sale of the entire 10.2% stake. With this
deal, Abrdn will fully exit the company before the merger of the parent company.
• Center has proposed to keep third party insurance premium unchanged for most categories for FY24. If
implemented, constant premium could impart some pressure on general insurance. Thus, this could keep
general insurer stock price in a range
• SEBI has banned IIFL Securities for onboarding new clients for 2 years. This order has been issued in
connection to finding the mixing of clients funds with proprietary funds. Such an order could keep stock
under pressure as it will impact business growth and thus earnings trajectory.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

• US PE TPG has exited Shriram Finance by selling 2.65% stake. TPG continues to remain partner in
insurance business
• Timken Singapore, the parent of Timken India, has proposed to sell up to 8.4% stake, or 63 lakh shares, in
its India listed firm for 1,890 crore on Tuesday through open market transaction. The parent has fixed the
floor price at 3,000 a share, a 14% discount to Monday’s closing price. Timken Singapore owned 67.8% in
the Indian firm as of March 31, 2023.
• The company has received shareholders nod to raise up to Rs 8500 crore through QIP to pursue growth
plans in the transmission sector.
• The company plans to invest Rs 12000 crore in FY24 in capex. This will include capex on the upcoming 4
GW manufacturing plant, under construction renewable projects and T&D business in odhisha and Delhi.
It plans to fund the projects via internal accruals.
• AETHER Industries has approved raising of funds by way of issue of Equity Shares, through a qualified
institutions placement. The floor price for the issue is approved at ₹984.9 per equity share which is based
on the pricing formula as prescribed under the SEBI ICDR Regulations.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

B-80 field set to provide sustained CFs for further

developmental activities…
About the stock: Hindustan Oil Exploration Company (HOEC) is India’s first private
player in the upstream oil & gas sector.

• HOEC holds a portfolio of 11 blocks with eight onshore and three offshore
blocks of which it has operatorship in 10 blocks
Particulars
• In FY23, standalone revenues were at | 381 crore, up 192% YoY, due to Particular Amount
commercialisation of B-80 block in Mumbai Offshore and better realisation Market Capitalization (| Crore) 2,711.3

Stock Tales
from Dirok field. Standalone EBITDA came in at | 195.3 crore, up 158% YoY. Total Debt (FY23) (| Crore) 283.6
The company reported a PAT of | 178.5 core, up 398% YoY Cash and Investments (FY23) (| Crore) 58.6
EV (| Crore) 2,936.4
52 week H/L 212/116
Key triggers for future price performance: Equity capital (| Crore) 132.3
Face value (|) 10.0
• All portfolio assets under revenue mode: HOEC focuses on discovered oil &
gas assets to reduce risk related to exploration. Its portfolio assets (B-80, Shareholding Pattern Key Fin
Dirok, PY-1, Kharsang, Cambay) are all under revenue mode and
(in %) Jun-22 S ep-22 Dec-22 M ar-23
developmental drillings have been planned to improve production from
Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
individual wells (PY-1 in FY24, then proceed with drillings in Dirok, Cambay,
FII 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6
B-80)
DII 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.8
• Stabilisation of B-80 well: While B-80 would contribute bulk of profitability Others 96.1 96.4 96.7 96.6
for HOEC, the well is being optimised to prolong the plateau of the field
life and keep government share to one-third, which would lower cash flow Risks to our call
volatility, going ahead. Currently, the gas: oil ratio is declining and thereby
would improve product mix for the company in the medium to long term 1) Weather related disruption in B-80 well
2) Sharp decline in crude oil prices
• Capacity improvement in other assets: Dirok is being connected directly to
Duliajan hub via 35 km pipeline and together with drilling of three Price Performance
developmental wells is expected to improve gas production from current 35
mmscfd to 55. Other assets like PY-1, 3 Cambay assets (Asjol, North Balol, 250 20000

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Palej) contribute marginally to HOEC valuations. The management expects 200 15000
to unlock field potential by executing approved Field Development Planning 150
10000
(FDP) in the next two years 100
50 5000

What should investors do? In the near term, the management plans to reduce the 0 0
Jun-20

Jun-22
Jun-21

Jun-23
Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
outstanding loans from banks from | 250 crore to less than | 100 crore in FY24, by
utilising CFs generated due to higher B-80 production. On the developmental front,
the company will initially spend | 64 crore to drill wells in PY-1 (in Q4FY24). Then, in HOEC NIFTY Index
the medium to long term, it will proceed towards drilling more wells in blocks like
Dirok (post FY24), B-80 (FY26-27), Cambay (post environmental clearance), etc. We
estimate revenue, EBITDA, PAT to grow 37%, 27%, 28%, respectively, during FY23- Research Analyst
25E and FCF yield/RoCE improving to 6%,18%.
Harshal Mehta
• We initiate coverage under the Stock Tales format with a BUY rating harshal.mehta@icicisecurities.com

Target Price and Valuation: We value HOEC at | 260 per share (based on DCF) Payal Shah
shah.payal@icicisecurities.com

Key Financial Summary

5 Year CAGR 2 Year CAGR
(Year-end March) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
(FY18-23) (FY23-25E)
Revenues (| crore) 99.4 130.5 381.0 10.0 724.5 719.7 37.4
EBITDA (| crore) 49.8 75.7 195.3 2.3 333.8 314.3 26.9
Net Profit (| crore) 65.1 35.8 178.5 3.7 312.7 293.2 28.2
EPS (|) 4.9 2.7 12.4 23.6 22.2
P/E (x) 41.7 75.7 16.6 8.7 9.2
Price / Book (x) 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.2 1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 55.3 38.6 15.0 8.3 8.7
RoCE (%) 3.8 6.0 13.8 22.4 17.7
RoE (%) 8.9 4.7 19.2 25.2 19.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities |Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Results/Events Calendar

05 June 06 June 07 June 08 June 09 June 10 June

Monday
IN Services PMI (May)
EU Services PMI (May)
UK Composite PMI (May)
UK Services PMI (May)
US Services PMI (May)
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
UK Construction PMI (May) US Trade Balance (Apr) IN Interest Rate Decision JP M3 Money Supply 0
EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) US Crude Oil Inventories IN Cash Reserve Ratio CH CPI YoY 0
0 0 IN Reverse Repo Rate 0 0
0 0 US Initial Jobless claims 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

12 June 13 June 14 June 15 June 16 June 17 June

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
IN CPI YoY US CPI YoY IN WPI Inflation EU Interest Rate Decision EU CPI 0
IN Industrial Production UK Unemployment Rate IN WPI Food US Retail Sales 0 0
IN Manufacturing Output 0 IN WPI Fuel, IN WPI Manufacturing InflationCH Industrial Production 0 0
0 0 US Interest Rate Decision 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

19 June 20 June 21 June 22 June 23 June 24 June

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
0 JP Industrial Production MoM UK CPI YoY US Existing Home Sales UK Retail Sales MoM 0
0 US Building Permits MoM 0 UK BoE Int Rate Decision EU Manufacturing PMI 0
0 0 0 0 EU Services PMI 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

26 June 27 June 28 June 29 June 30 June 01 July

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
0 US New home sales EU M3 Money Supply US GDP Q3 UK GDP QoQ 0
0 0 US goods trade balance US Pending home sales EU CPI 0
0 0 0 CH Manufacturing CPI IN Federal Fiscal Deficit 0
0 0 0 CH Composite PMI IN Infrastructure Output 0
0 0 0 0 IN Foreign Debt 0

03 July 04 July 05 July 06 July 07 July 08 July

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
IN Nikkei Manf PMI CH Caxin Service PMI IN Nikkei Service PMI US Services PMI US Unemployment Rate 0
EU Manf PMI 0 EU Service PMI JP Household Spending 0 0
UK Manf PMI 0 UK Service PMI 0 0 0
US Mang PMI 0 US Facory Orders 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

Major Economic Events this Week Recent Releases

Date Event Country Period Expected Previous Date Report
20-Jun Industrial Production JP Jun -0.4% 1.1% Jun 19, 2023 Stock Tales– Hindustan Oil Exploration
20-Jun Building Permits US Jun 1.435M 1.417M Jun 19, 2023 Company Update– Trent
21-Jun CPI YoY UK Jun 8.5% 8.7% Jun 19, 2023 Shubh Nivesh– Granules
21-Jun API Weekly Curde Oil Stock US Jun - 1.024M Jun 14, 2023 Stock Tales– JM Financial
14-Jun WPI Fuel IN Jun -3.57% 0.93% Jun 13, 2023 Shubh Nivesh– PCBL
14-Jun WPI Inflation IN Jun -2.35% -0.92%
14-Jun WPI Manf Inflation IN Jun -2.28% -2.42%
14-Jun M3 Money Supply IN Jun 9.90% 10.10%
15-Jun Exports IN Jun 36.69B 34.66B
15-Jun Imports IN Jun 54.13B 49.90B
15-Jun Initial Joblees Claims US Jun 250k 261k
16-Jun CPI YoY EU Jun 6.10% 7.00%

ICICI Securities |Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
Third Floor,Brillanto House,
Road No 13, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities |Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

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of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

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percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.
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