Eee x Syllabus deviation, mean deviation and standard deviation; Measures of relative dispersion, [4 lectures /4 Marks] BUSINESS MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS Module II: [50 marks] Unit 11, Moments, Skewness and Kurtosis ~ Different types of moments and their relationships; Meaning of skewness and kurtosis; Different measures of ‘Skewness and Kurtosis [6 lectures / 6 Marks] 12. Correlation and Regression - Scatter diagram; Simple correlation coefficient; ‘Simple regression lines; Spearman’ rank correlation ; Measures of association of attributes. [S lectures / 8 Marks] 13. Probability Theory ~ Meaning of probability; Different definitions of probability: Conditional probability; Compound probability; Independent events; (excluding Bayes’ Theorem). [10 lectures / 10 Marks] 14, Interpolation — Finite differences; Newton’s forward and backward inter- polation formula; Lagrange’s interpolation formula. [6 lectures / 6 Marks] 15. Index Numbers — Means and types of index numbers ; Problems in construction of index numbers; Methods of construction of price and quantity indices; Tests ‘of adequacy; erorsin index numbers; Chain-base index numbers; Base shifting, splicing, deflating; Consumer price index and its uses. [0 lectures / 10 Marks] 16, ‘Time Series Analysis - Causes of variation in time series data; Components of time series ; Additive and multiplicative models; Determination of trend by semi average, moving average and least squares(linear, second degree and exponential) methods; Computation of seasonal indices by simple average, ratio- to-moving average, ratio-o tend and link relative methods; Simple forecasting through time series data [10 lectures / 10 Marks]re een a0 Business Mathematics and Statistics (©) The data show a regular cycle of 5 days, because every Sth figure is the highest after which there is slump, followed by gradual recovery. Hence 5-day moving averages: 37.6, 37.6, 38.2, 38.6, 38.4, 388, 39.2, 38.8, 38.6, 38.6, 388, 388, 39.0, 39.0, 39.0, 3.0 for days 3 to 18. (see Example 20.15 and 15A) 7. 42.1, 40.9, 39.8, 38.2, 38.1, 37.8 for 1960 to 1965 (see Example 20.12). Short-term fluctuations: 0.9, 3.6,0.9, -0.1,-5.5, 3.9. 8. (Take 4-quarter period): 126.0, 127.6, 133.9, 141.5, 147.8, 154.0, 160.2, 167.2 (7000 tons) for 1975-II to 1977-IL (see Example 20.12b) 9. (Take 4-quarter moving averages): 57.9, 59.9, 62.0, 64.2, 65.2, 64.8, 64.1, 63.1 (million tons) for 1964-III to 1966-IL. (see Example 20.15) 10. 495.8, 503.6, 511.6, 529.5, 553.0, 572.5 (mn. Ibs.) for 1943-1948, (sce Example 20.15) 11. Moving averages for 1966 to 1972 are (in Rs 000) 29/8, 31/8, 3/8, 35/8, 37/ 8, 39/8, 41/8. (see Example 20.12b and 20.13) 1.06 — 0.36x (origin: 1961, unit of x= 1 year) (see Example 20.18) y= 1278 + 232.9x (origin: 1968, x unit = 1 year). Trend values; 579, 812, 1045, 1278, 1511, 1744, 1977 (Rs. crores). (see Example 13.18) 14, y= 135 +3.Lx (origin: 1974, unit of x= 1 year). Trend values; 125.7, 128.8, 131.9, 135.0, 138.1, 141.2, 144.3 (Rs "000). (ee Example 20.18) 15, y=39.9-0.77x (origin: 1973, unit ofx= 1 year). Trend values (in Rs 000) by least squares: 41.44 and 37.59 by moving averages: 40.20 and 37.58. (see Example 20.18 and 12a) 16, y=48.83 + 4.61x (origin: mid-point of 1963-64, unit of x ~ 6 months). (see Example 20.19) 17, y= 121 +4.71x (origin: mid-point of 1953 and 1954; Unit of x = 6 months). (sce Example 20.19) 18, y= 322.8 + 28.4x (origin: Mid-point of 1955-56 and 1956-57; Unit of x = 6 ‘months). (see Example 20.19) 19, y = 655 + 35.83x (origin: Mid-point of 1963-64; Unit of x = 6 months). Estimated value 1049. (see Example 20.19) 20. y= 12.31 — 0.60x ~ 0.867 (origin: 1975; Unit of x 1 year). (see Example 12. 13. 2021) 21, y= 39.2 + 204x + 0.49%? (origin: 1963; Unit of x = 1 year), (see Example 20.21) 22. log y = 2.2290 + .0471x (origin: 1947, Unit of x = 1 year). (see Example 20.22) 23, (Using 4-figure log table) y = 31990 (1.114 (origin: 1973, Unit of x = 1 year) (see Example 20.22) 24, y= 41.14 + 2.04x (origin: 1963, Unit of x = 1 year); 0.17 thousand tons. Monthly trend y = 41.23 + 0.17x (origin: July 1963, unit of x = 1 month); trend values: 36.13, 36.47, 38.00 (7000 tons) when x =~ 30, -28, ~19. (see Example 20.23 and 20.25) 2s. (033 + 3.75x (origin: Ist quarter of 1977, Unit of: 2, trend value = 122.83. Estimated consumption. tons. (see Example 20.38 and 20.33) 1 quarter). Putting 22.83 x 1.17= 143.7The McGraw Hill Companies Time Series on 26. Putting 4 and ~2, annual production (trend) are 118.92 and 101.34 (7000 1072, 293 (141) -ags9 4 4x4 +0.183¢ (origin: 3rd quarter of 1973; Unit of t= 1 quarter). Putting f= 14, trend value for Ist quarter of 1977 is 29.452. Multiplying by the seasonal effect 1.25 for Ist quarter estimated production = 36.82 ('000 tons). (see Example 20.24 and 20.33). 27. 152, 154, 196, 256, 274, 244, 202, 208, 200, 204, 164, 146 (Rs. 000) for January to December. (see Example 20.29) 28. (b) Divide ‘cash balance” by seasonal effects) 300, 500, 500, 400, 500, 550 (7000 Rs) (see Example 20.30). 29. (Divide case receipts by ‘seasonal index’) 27.0, 35.4, 36.5, 37.0, 39.9, 35.7, 325, 34.2, 30.1, 34.1, 45.1, 48.1 (Rs million) for January to December. (Gee Example 20:30). 30. Based on the August sales (seasonal index 105), the expected September sales (seasonal index 140) are Rs 80,000. (see Example 20.31), 31. (i) 107,200, (il) 198,950, (it) 414,000 (Hint: See Example 20.33; Putting x= 14, 53 and 156, obtain trend values 134,000, 173,000 and 276,000 and ‘multiply them by seasonal effects 0.80, 1.15 and 1.50) 32. 98, 92, 109, 101 using multiplicative model. (see Example 20.34) 33. 105, 99, 101, 95 for quarters I to IV (using Method of Quarterly Averages, and Mulitplicative Model). Because there is no trend. (see Example 20.34). 35. (b) Using Additive Model: 0.66, -0.33, -1.33, 1.67, 1.67, 2.00, 2.66, -1,00, ~2.33, -3.00, -1.67, 1.00 (in lakh tons) for January to December. (see Example 20.33) 36. Seasonal indices: 3.12, 0.69,~4.25, 0.44 ('000 tons) for quarters Ito IV. Deduct seasonals from the given figures, and obtain deseasonalised data (7000 tons): 33.88, 37.31, 41.25, 39.56, 37.88, 33.31, 29.25, 30.56, 31.88, 36.31, 39.25, 40.56. (see Example 20.36). 37. ~449, -2.27, 6.76 ('000 units) for Summer, Rains, Winter, using additive ‘model and moving average method (Hint: Use 3-period moving average for trend). (see Example 20.35), 40. 25.40, 26.44, 25.06, 25.84, 25.10, 27.06, 26.64, 26.78. tons). Trend equation for quartely values X,=re een Probability Theory 663 ‘A sample space which is finite or countably infinite is called a ‘discrete sample space’. An uncountably infinite sample space is called a ‘continuous sample space’. Mustration 1 (@) Inthe random experiment of tossing a coin, the sample space Sis the set S= HT} Ithas two sample points, viz. H and T. (©) Inthe random experiment of tossing adi, the sample space is usually given S=(1,2,3,4,5,6} We could also show the sampel space a 5, = {even, odd} (© Inthe experiment of tossing two coins ‘S'= (HH, HT, TH, TT} Note that here the sample points are ordered pairs of results (called 2-tuples) one from each coin. The sample space could also be given as S, = {0, 1,2} the sample points indicating the total number of heads obtained from the coins. (@) In drawing a ball from an um containing 2 white and 3 red balls, we could regard the balls as numbered, say white balls { and 2;red balls 3,4 and 5. The sample space is then S= (1,2,3,4,5} (©) Suppose balls are drawn from the above un one a time without replacement and the order in which they are drawn is taken into consideration. We shall ‘write (4,1) to denote the outcome when the first ball drawn bears the number 4and the second ball bears the number 1. The sample space has now 20 points 2s follows: $= (1,2), (1,3), (4,49) (1,5, @, D,2,3),2.442, 9), G.0.6,2,B,4.G, 9.4, 0.4.2, 4.3.4.5), 6.0, 6.26.36} It-will possibly be easier to understand if we number these 20 elements of S serially, and write S™ {e1,ep C0 -~ = 0} ‘Note that here the sample points e, are 2-tuples. (© When a coin is tossed 3 times (or 3 coins are tossed simultaneously), the sample space S contains 8 sample points, ‘S-= (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TIT} ‘The sample points are now 3-tupes. (@) Toss a coin repeatedly until a head appears. Then = {H, TH, TTH, TITH, TTTTH, 3 If the number of times the coin need be tossed is counted, the sample space may be given as $, = (1,2,3,4,5, 000} (Q) Suppose we observe the lifetime (in hours) of electric lamps of a particular brand, which are known to have a maximum life of 2000 hours. The sample space is s (x: x is the lifetime in hours, 0 ¢4) Ay Since, Az C Ay, we have A, U Ay = Ay and A, 0 Ay= 42, Hence Ay 42 Ag = Ay 0 (Az AQ) = Ay A= {en 5} = event that the 2nd coin shows head as well as 2 heads spec Gai2 axtous oF PRoBABrLrTy Let S be a sample space of a random experiment. If to each event A of the set of all possible events of S, we associate a real number P(A), then P(A) is called the “probability” of event, if the following axioms hold: ‘Axiom 1. For every event A P(A)20 (21.121) ‘Axiom 2, For the sure event S PS) =1 @.t22) Axiom 3. For any finite number or countably infinite number of mutually exclusive events Ay, Ay, FS Pld UAgU .) = P(A) + PAS) + 12a) In particular, fortwo mutually exclusive events and B PUB) = Pd) + PB) 1.124) It should be noted that we can speak of the ‘probability’ only if the event is a subset of a specified sample space S, and to each subset of S a real number, satisfying ‘the axioms, can be assigned. A sample space on which ‘probability’ has been defined is called a probability space. Deductions from the Axioms Theorem I The probability of the impossible event is zero. PQ) =0 ais) Proof ‘Any event A and the impossible event ¢ are mutually exclusive, Also AU @= A. Hence, by Axiom 3,eee Probability Theory 667 PUL —)= PLA) + PO) ‘Theorem IT ‘The probability of the complementary event is PU) = 1- P(A) 1.12.6) Proof A and 4’ are mutually exclusive events, and Aud’ Hence, P(S) = P(A U 4’)= P(A) + P(A’), by Axiom 3 ie. 1=PU)+P), PUA’) Theorem IIT ‘The probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 OS PSI 21.127) PUA) Proof By Axiom 1, 0 P(4). Also, from (21.12.6), we have P(4)= 1 ~ P(4’). Since PU’)is 1 probability, it cannot be negative (Axiom 1); therefore P(4) < 1. Combining both the inequalities, the result follows. ‘Theorem IV IfA=A, UA; U.. Udy where Ay, dp, dy are mutually exclusive events, then P(A) = PlA,) + P(d,) + «. + PCA,) 21.128) In particular if =, the sample space, then Ply) + PU) +. + PUA,)= 1 21.129) Proof Relation (21.12.8) follows from Axiom 3 for the case when the number of mutually ‘exclusive eventsis finite, say n. In addition, using Axiom 2, the result (21.12.9) follows, ‘Theorem V IfA CB (ic. event A implies event B), then PA) < PB) (21.12.10) Proof If cB, then events A and 4’ B are mutually exclusive, and their union A U (4’ >.B) =B. Hence, by Axiom 3, PB) = Pla) + PUB) Since by Axiom 1, P(4’ 7 B) cannot be negative, hence PCB) > PUA) ‘Theorem VI For any two events 4 and B, PUMB)+PUNB) 1.12.1) PUB)+ PUB) 1.12.12) Proof Events 4 0 Band 4-8’ are mutually exclusive, and their union isthe event 4. Hence by Axiom 3, relation (21.12.11) can be proved. Similarly, event B is the union of ‘mutually exclusive events A -B and ’ > B, and result (21.12.12) can be proved.ce eee 668 Business Mathematics and Statistics ‘Theorem VII For any two events A and B (which may or may not be mutually exclusive), PU UB) = Pld) +P(B) PAB) @1.12.13) Proof Events 4 9B’, 47 B and 4’ FB are mutually exclusive, and their union is the event AUB. Hence, by Axiom 3, PUB) = PUB) + PUA B)+ PUB) But from (1.14.11) and (1.14.12), we have ‘PUA OB) = P(A) — P(A. B) and P(A’ A B) = PCB) — P(A). Substituting these values, PUAB) = [PA)~PA AB) + PAB) + (PB) PAB) P(A) + P(B)- PAB). ‘theorem VII For any three events 4, B, C PUB UC) = Pld) + PB) + P(O)- PAB) ~PUNQ-PBAQ+PUABAC) (21.12.14) Proof In (21.12.13) let us replace the event B by BU C. Then PUL (BUO] = P(A) +PBUO)- PABLO) A) + (PB) +P(Q)- PBA O)~PUAOB)U(ANO) by Distributive lav. ‘Again using 21.12.13) for the union of events A 9 B and A 0 C, PUAN BU UNO] = PUN B)+PUNO-PANB) UNO] PUAB)+PANC-PAABAG, Hence the result follows. GAA) rawrv PRonarLzvy SPACE AND ASSTGNMENT OF PROBABILITIES Suppose that a sample space is finite and consists of n elementary outcomes: S= (ee 6) Then a total number of2* possible events canbe obtained from S. For example, in the random experiment of tossing 2 coins and observing the sequence of Heads and Tails, S= (HH, HT, TH, TT) = (ex ex ee), suppose. Here, the sample space S contains 4 outcomes and thereofore 24 = 16 events 4, {er} Cex)» {ess {ea ein ab (ei eab (Er ends {eases} {ea exh {ea €abs {61 €x shy {eis en Ea eines eas {ea €3» €4) and {jy €2,€5 €4} iS. Inorder to define “probability” we need therefore specify 2* values P(A) forall 2* events A, 50 that Axioms 1, 2, and 3 ae satisfied. Inthe finite probability space, twill however be sufficient i we assign only n real numbers 7, «Pq to the n elementary events A= 61h, A= fea ony (6) respectively, such that @ p20 G=1,2,..0) 1.13.1)The McGraw Hill Companies Probability Theory 669 (i) ppt ppt tea (21.13.2) This means thatthe ‘numbers’ p, are arbitrary positive proper fractions, or some zeros, whose total is 1. These ‘numbers’ pps, Py are called “probabilities” associated with the elementary events, A, respectively. ‘The probability ofan event 4 can then be computed asthe sum ofthe probabilities of those elementary events whose union constitutes 4. For example, if A= (ej. € €4). wean write A= fey ey 04) = {er} U (65) U fe} = Ay VAS Ay because the elementary events {e) are mutually exclusive. Therefore by Axiom 3, PUA) = Pl) + PLA) + PUA) Pit Pst Ps 21.12) FINITE EQUIPROBABLE SAMPLE SPACE AND CLASSICAL DEFINITION A finite sample space $= {e,€3,...¢,} is said to have “equally likely” outcomes, if the probabilities py, ps, .-. Py assigned to all the n elementary events of S are equal; ie. p=, Py The sample space Sis then said to be “equiprobable”. By (21.13.1) and (21.13.2), since the probabilities p;, p>, ..,P, cannot be negative ‘and ther total must be 1, each p, must have the same value 1 Pim Pam = Pa ‘Therefore, if an event A has m sample points, then the probability of 4 is rid= b+) +. Getinn) or, Pa)= 1.14.) ‘Thus, if we have a finite equiprobable sample space of n elementary outcomes then the computation of probability of an event reduces to the computation of the ‘number (m) of sample points which belong othe event 4. The probability of 4is then sven by (21.14.1) Number of outcomes favourabletoA _ m P(A) = “Total number of possible outcomes ~ 7m This is equivalent tothe ‘classical’ definition of probability (21.5.1) The axiomatic definition of probability is thus more general, from which the classical definition can be obtained as a special case ie. when the sample space is finite and equiprobable. Summary of Axiomatic Theory of Probability (Discrete Case) L. Finite Case) Let us suppose that a random experiment has a finite number (n) ‘of possible ‘elementary outcomes’ e;, €35.. Gy: The Set S= {e1, €,.. eq) is called a “Sample Space’ connected with the random experiment and its elements e, are called “Sample Points’. Any set, say {e), ¢2, €s,€7}, Which is a subset of S, is called anre eee om Business Mathematics and Statistics “Evant”. The sets {¢;} consisting of single elements are called ‘elementary events’, while sets which consist of more than one element are called ‘composite events’. In particular, the null set ¢ is called the ‘impossible event’ and the universal set S is called the ‘sure event’ ‘Suppose that corresponding to the elementary events {e;}, {5}... {e,} We are given real numbers pj, p> ... Py respectively such that p, 20 and) p; = 1. The ‘numbers p, are called “probabilities” assigned tothe elementary events A, fe). The probability of any event, say A= (61,035 ~-Pa is then given by the sum of the probabilities associated with those outcomes which belong tothe event (strictly speaking, with those elementary events whose union constitutes the given event 4), PA) = Pit Patt Pm In particular, ifthe possible outcomes ¢1, e3, .. ¢, are “equally likely”, the probabilities pp. Pq are equal andl have the same value I/n, The probability of the event 4 consisting of m sample points is then given by P= ‘Thus the classical definition of probability is obtained from the axiomatic theory as aspecial case IL (Countably Infinite Cae) Te theories here re exact the same asin Case I, withthe following modifications ‘The number of possible elementary outcomes ¢},€. s countably infinite and the sample space $= e;,¢,.. } isan infinite set. The probabilities p,, pa... assigned to the elementary events are, as before, non-negative and their sum equals 1, ic Piz 0and Dp, However, since the number of possible outcomes is infinite, the classical definition ‘cannot be derived from this case. 1 Example 21.59 There are 3 children in a family. What is the probability that they include (i) exactly 2 girls, (i) not move than one girl? Solution The sample space is finite and contains 8 sample points ‘S = (BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB. GGG) E'we assume that the bist of boys and girls ae equally likely, then Sis equiprobable, so thatthe probably assigned to cach elementary event is © Probability that there are exactly 2 girls Ta = PUBGG, GBG, GGB})= 5x3" 5 Probability that not more than one is gil, = P((8BB, BBG, BCB, GBB})= bam 5 eoThe McGraw Hill Companies Probability Theory on Example 21.60 Two urns marked I and II contain respectively 3 white, 2 black balls and 2 white, 4 black balls. f one ball is drawn from each urn, what is the probability that both are white balls? Solution Lets assume tat the ball ae numbered as follows: ‘Um I: White balls 1,2, 3; Black balls 4,5 ‘Um Il: White balls 6.7; Black balls 8 9, 10,1. ‘The sample space S contains 30 sample points, each of which isan ordered par ofthe form (2,9), where the frst number refers tothe ball from Ura I and the second from Urn I. If the balls are identical in all respects except in colour, we may assume thatthe sample space is suiprobable, so thatthe probability assigned to each elementary events 31. The event A that ‘oth the balls are white is A= (1,90, 9,26 27.8,9,8,D) which ccm alpen Tin a)= 2 x=} om 21.15) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Let A and B be two events, such that P(4) # 0. Then the Conditional probability of B, given that A has occurred, is defined as, BY _ PMB) (3) ead 1.5.1) Ie follows that P(ANB) =P) (2) i.ts2) ‘This is known as Multiplication Theorem of probability Similarly, if P(B) + 0, the conditional probability of 4, given that B has occurred, (4) ee 21.153) from which we get Pung) = PB) (4) aus) quating the right hand sides of (21.15.2) and (21.154, vw.e(2) - PB (4) 1.55) provided P(A) #0, (B) #0, Thus we find that (4) im *) 1.156) Example 21.61 There are3 children in a family, Find the probability that all the ‘children are boys, (i) ifno prior information is available about the children, (i) ifitis Inown that the two eldest are boys, (i) if itis known that at least two of them are boys.The McGraw Hill Companies om Business Mathematics and Statistics Son ‘hppa 8D tb tt Sch, aie ie nce Set Samoa Dra va it (1,69 1(8)} 69 #4) etn, st oven A)_ PUNO (4) _ PAoD) (2) PO (5) PD) Since the sample pai fit (size and equprobsbe, and events 4, CD contin 1,2 and #saple points epee Tiecatatcta Pay ~ 1. rQ=2.po=4 1 1 Avo, PA O)= PBB) = 1, PLA D) = PCBB}) = * Ths, ee ea Probably thal the chile are boys, given that he wo eldest are boys 4) 12-1 Pleln ge? Probably thal the circ are boys, given that at east 2ofthem are boys -A(4)-! 4c i =a Example 21.62 1/4 and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A WB) #0, then prove that ( A ) PA) ; (oa) ae [CU, BSc. 81] Solution By he defsition of conditional probebilty and since PUA WB) #0 (given), 4) = M4a vs) gual” ~PauB) ‘Also, since 4 and B are known tobe mutually exclusive, ANB= 6 and RAVB)= PU) +P) @ By the Algebra of sets Disuibuive Law), ANUUB) = AndUAnB) = Augnd “ PANU) = PA) w Substituting fom (i) and ii) onthe RLS. of, the result follows @ aoe @i.16) INDEPENDENT EVENTS ‘An event B is considered to be independent of an event A, if the probability that B occurs is not influenced by the knowledge that 4 has occurred. In other words,re eee Probability Theory or the unconditional probability of B equals the conditional probability of B, given Ajie. PB) = (4) 1.6.) Using (21.15.5), we see that in case P(B) =i then P(A) -(4) ‘Thus, if Bis independent of 4, then A i also independent of B. We therefore say that events “A ‘and B are independent.” From the Multiplication Theorem (21.15.2) it follows that P(4\B)= P(A). PCB). This equation is taken asa formal definition for independence ‘of two events. Events A and B are said to be “independent” (or stochastically independent), if ‘and only if PCAOB) = Pld). PB) 21.162) Otherwise, they are said to be “dependent” events, If events A and B are independent, it can be shown (Example 21.64 that their ‘complementary events 4’ and B” are also independent. Similarly, events A and B’ and also events 4’ and B are independent. This means that if P(4 > B) = P(A) . P(B) then. the following relations are also satisfied: PU! AB) = Pt). PB) PCAOB) = Pid). PB) PU! 1B) = Pl’). PB). Thus, we may replace any one or both the events by their complements 4’, B on both sides of (21.16.2) and still get a true result. Note: IfA and B are two independent events then (21.16.2) holds. Conversely, if this relation holds, the events must be independent (inthe sense that any combination ‘ofA or 4’ with B or B’ will be independent). The relation (21.16.2) is therefore called 1 ‘necessary and sufficient’ condition for independence of two events. Pairwi: Independent Events Several events Ay, day.» Ay ae said to be “pairwise independent” if every pair of these events are independent i. PU; 04) = P(A). PLA) (21.163) forall values of j= 1,2, nm @#)) For example, 3 events 4, B, C will be said to be ‘pairwise independent’ if the following relations hold: PMB) = Pd). PB) PUA © = PA). PO) PBA = PB). PO) Mutually Independent Events Several events Ay, Az, ... dy are said to be “mutually independent” (or simply independent), ifthe probability of the joint occurrence of any number of these events is equal to the product of their probabilities. For example, 3 events 4, B, C will be said to be ‘independent if every one of the following relations holds:re eee om Business Mathematics and Statistics PUNB) = Pd). PB) PUNO) = PA). PO) PBA = PB). PO) 1.164) and PUB AO = PA). PB). PC) In general, for the mutual independence of n events, 2" ~~ 1 such conditions ‘must be satisfied TItmay be noted here that if3 or more events 4,4, ., 4, are mutually independent, then the relation P(A 04g 0. Ag) = P(Ay) PCy), «= PCA) (21.16.5) ‘obviously holds (Besides some other relations must also hold). Ifevents A,, A>, ....A, are independent, then their complements Ay’, A’, ... A," are also independent. In particular PUY Ay On. Ag) = PAY) PUA), = Py) 21.166) Note: 1. Hfmevents are mutually independent, they are necessarily pairwise independent. ‘The converse is not true. Pairwise independent events may not be mutually independent. 2. 1f3 ormore events are independent, then the relation (21.16.5) must hold, But the converse is not true in general. In other words, ifonly (21.16.5) holds, the events Ay, dp, ...4, (n 23) may not be independent. Ths relation is therefore a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for independence of more than two events 3. Ifm events 4, ae independent, then any combination of these events, taken any number ata time, is also independent; eg. events 4, Ay and 4 will be independent. 4, If events 4, are independent and we replace some or all of them by their complements, then any combination of the new group of events, taken any number at a time, will also be independent; e.g. events Ay’ As, As’ and Ay’ will 'be mutually independent. In particular, the n complementary events A, will also be independent. Example 21.63 4 fair coin is tossed 3 times in succession. Show that the events {first toss gives a head’ and ‘second toss gives a head’ are independent. Solution The sample space S = (HHH, HHT, HTH, HIT, THE, THT, TTH, TTT) is ‘equiprobable, and contains 8 sample points Let A and B denote respectively the events ‘first toss gives a head’ and ‘second toss gives a head’. Then PU) = P(HEH, HHT, HTH, HTT)) = PQ) = P( HEH, HHT, THH, THT)) = 21 PAB) = PCat, HET) = = 5 4. 372 41 372 1a Werind at PU). PB) = 3x5= 4 So, A and B are independent events. = Pans) oseee Probability Theory CA Example 21.64 Let A and B be two independent events. Then show that (A and BS, (ii) A and B® are also independent. [C.U,, B.Com. (Hons) '81] Solution Since A and B are independent events, we have PUN) = Pd). PB) a Here 4° and B denote the complements of d and B respectively. @ PUNB) = Pd) -PAB), by (1.12.11) = PU) PUA). PB), by () above = Pl). (1- PB) = Pi). PE, by 21.126, Since PUU A.B) = PUA). PCBS, the events d and B° are independent. w PUSAB) = PAU BY, by De Morgan's Law = 1-PUUB), = 1=[PUd) + PB)-PA MB), by 21.12.13) = 1-PU)~PQB)+ PUA).P), by (0) = DPA) -PB)) = Pa). PB) ‘Thus events 4° and B® are independent os Example 21.65 (a) 4, A, ..4, are independent events such that P(A,) = 1 ~qy i=1,2,..n Prove that (04) - 1-00 fe (®) In supplies of 3 components, viz. base, neck and switch, for an electric lamp, the percentages of defectives on a day were 5, 20 and 10 respectively. An assembled lamp is considered defective if at least one of the 3 components is defective. If ‘components are selected randomly, what is the probability that an assembled lamp would be defective? [WBHS. ‘79] Solution (@) Since dy, day. dy are independent events, their complements Ay’ A,’ dy’ are also independent, having probabilities P(4/) = | - PUA) = 4, (given, = 1,2 ..m. So, PAY OY Oo Ay) ™ PAY) PAY), PEAY) 4a Oy a4) = Py 0d, 9 1=P,U Agu 0g since P= 1 PU) © LPIA dy 4), by De Morgans law mL Giga du (b) Let, B, Cdenote the events “base is defective’, ‘neck is defective’, ‘switch is defective’ respectively. Then (given) 1 1 1 PUA) = S%= 35, PLB) = 20% =, IC) 10% = 5 ‘The probabilities of complementary events are 19 4 9 PU) = 39> B= 5+ PC)™ ig.The McGraw Hill Companies 16 Business Mathematics and Statistics ‘We assume that the events 4, , C are independent. Probability thatthe lamp is defective ‘= Probability that atleast one component is defective = PAU BUC) =P nBncy = 1-PUAB'OC) = 1- PU). PW) .P(C), since 4, B, C are assumed independent 94,9 20°5“i0 B ~ Boss os Comparison of Classical Theory and Axiomatic Theory (@ In the classical theory, all theorems and results are obtianed by logical arguments. In the axiomatic theory, all results are derived from the axioms by using the mathematical properties of sets. (i) The classical theory is based upon the concept of “equally likely cases” when the number of possible outcomes is only finite. The axiomatic theory is quite general and embraces all cases whether equally likely or not and irrespective of whether the number of possible outcomes is finite or infinite (ii) The classical theory defines “event” simply as a phenomenon which may arise in the performance of the random experiment. The axiomatic theory defines the “event” strictly according to mathematical principles asa ‘set’, which is in cffect a subset of the universal set ofall possible outcomes, called the Sample Space. (iv) Inthe classical theory, “probability” is defined as a ratio (ie. fraction) of two positive whole numbers (the numerator may be zero) showing the number of ccases favourable to the event and the total number of all possible outcomes which are equally likely. In the axiomatic theory, “probability” is simply a non-negative number associated with the event, ic. probability is aset-function obeying the three axioms. (¥) The ‘addition theorem’ of classical theory isnot derived inthe axiomatic theory, but simply accepted as a rule by Axiom 3 (see 21.12.4). The ‘multiplication theorem’ is derived as a rule (see 21.15.2) which follows from the definition of conditional probability in axiomatic theory. (vi) The concepts of “conditional probability” and “independent events” are introduced in the classical theory by logical arguments, whereas in the axiomatic theory these are defined by mathematical statements. GARD avoresowan exawwies Example 21.66 The probability that A speaks the truth is 0.4 and that B speaks the truth is 0.7 What isthe probability that they will contradict each other? [CU., B.Com. 2001] Solution Let X and be the events that A speaks ruth and B speaks truth. Thus, the probability ‘that they will contradict each otherre eee Probability Theory on ‘= Probability that 4 speaks truth and B does not speak truth or A doesnot speak truth and B speaks truth = PANY) PATA) = POOP (1) + POMP (1) = 04x03 +0.6x0.7 = 0.54 GOs Example 21.67 Whatis the probability of drawing either a spade or an ace from ‘a pack of 52 cards? [C.U, B.Com, 2001] Solution LetA.bethe eventibat a spadeis selected and’B be the event tat an aces selected. ‘Thus the probability of drawing either a spade or an ace from a pack of 52 cards = P(A UB) = P(A) + PB) - PAB). 4 os Example 21.68 _i/two events are independent, show that their complements are also independent. [C.U, B.Com, 2001] Hint: See Example 21.64. Example 21.69 For any two events A and B, which are not mutually exclusive, rove that P(A UB) = P(A) + PB) ~ P(A 7B). [C.U, B.Com, 2002] Hint: See §21.6(0) and §21.12. Example 21.70 The probability ofn independent events are py, D>, --» Py Find ‘an expression for the probability that atleast one of the events will happen. [C.U, B.Com, 2002] Hint: ‘See Example 21.65(a). Example 21.71 There are two identical ums containing respectively 4 white ‘and 3 red balls and 3 white and 7 red balls. An urn is chosen at random and a ball is ‘drawn from it. Find the probability thatthe ball is white. Ifthe ball drawn is white, ‘what isthe probability tha itis from the first urn? [C.U, B.Com, 2003] Solution Let, bethe events thatthe frst um is chosen and B, be the events that the second ‘umis chosen. A be the event that the ball i white ‘The probability that the balls white = P(A) = PUB) PCAIB,) + PCB) PCAIB:) wld yl 3. Ol 2.9" 2" 0" 10 ‘the ball drawn i white, then the probebilty that itis fom the frst un is 14 P)P(AIB) _ 27 _ 40 2) a al 140 ionre eee om Business Mathematics and Statistics Example 21.72 State and prove compound probability theorem for two events. [C.U, B.Com, 2003] Hint: See §21.6(1D. Example 21.73 The four possible outcomes e; (i = 1, 2, 3, 4) of an experiment ‘are equally likely. Suppose the events A, B, C are defined as follows: A= fe; es}, B= (ey es}, C= {ey ey}. Prove that A is independent of B and B is independent of C. Does this imply that 4 is independent of C. Give reasons. [C.U, B.Com, 2003] Hint: Verify that P(A B)= PLA) PB) PE OC)=PB) PO). Also verify that P(A 7 C) = P(4) P(C). Thus, A and C are independent. Example 21.74 A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting sum 7, when it is known thatthe digit in the frst dice is greater than that second. [C.U, B.Com, 2003] Hint: Three cases are favourable which are (6, 1) (5, 2) and (4, 3) out of 36 cases. a ‘Thus the required probability = +=. eee 36 12 Example 21.75 1/4 and B be two independent events, prove that A° and B® are also independent. [C.U, B.Com, 2004] Hint: jee Example 21.64, Example 21.76 A construction company is bidding for two contracts, A and B. he probaly ha te compay wilt contract Ai 2 te probly ht he compo econ sand th probate compan ll get th te comms hati pri the conan wl ge a et ve conn? {€,Com, 24 Solon ttt copy ota Yvette ios pay i pate conti nies PUK UY) = P(X) + PO) POLY) = a aos Example 21.77 One shoot is the fired from each of three guns, let A, B, C denote the events that the target is hit bythe first, second and third gun respectively. Find the probability that at least one hit is registered when P(A) = 0.5, P (B) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.8 and A, B, Care mutually independent. [C.U,, B.Com. 2004] Hint: See Example 21.65(b) [Ans: 0.96]re eee Probability Theory 69 Example 21.78 Ina bolt factory three machines M,, Mz, My produces, respectively, 25%,35% and 40% of the otal production. The percentage of defective bolts are 5, 4 agnd 2 respectively. A boltis selected at random from the production of ‘a day, what isthe probability that it wil be defective? [C.U, B.Com, 2004] Hint: See Example 21.57 [Ans: 0.0345]. Example 21.79 Two unbiased dice are thrown together. Find the probability of ‘obtaining 2 in both the dice. [C.U, B.Com, 2005] Hint: Total cases (n) = 36, favourable case (m) = 1, ie., 2,2) Hee, ei potty = Example 21.80 ed PQ) 1 outa B= theft ves 2 ‘of P(A/B) and P(B/A). [CU,, B.Com, 2005] _ Plans) _Pd)+P(8)-Plaus)_§ Solution Here, (AlB) = Fes aay 2 7 rea PAO) PYRO) RALD) 5 5 Example 21.81 //P(4) = 3 .P@)= ; and P(A UB) = 1, then find the values of P(A/B), P(A/BS) and P(A® 7 BY). State whether the evens are mutually exclusive [C.U, B.Com, 2005] 21 Sotton vee, main P&OB) RA)? RB) = RLF Cs = PUNBS) _ PA) PUANB)_ 376 _ Again, PUB) = Fo Py Finally, PUA B= PA UB} = 1B) = 1-10 The events and Bare not mal exchsive beens PA 8) = aosSe eee 680 Business Mathematics and Statistics Example 21.82 Prove that ,the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two ‘events A and B, obtained from a random experiment, is equal to product of the probability of the event A, by the conditional probability of the event B (when the ‘event A has already occurred). [C.U, B.Com, 2005] Hint: See §21.6(1D. Example 21.83 A box contains 9 red and 6 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random one after another: Find the probability that both the balls are white, when the first drawn ball isnot replaced before the second drawing. [C.U., B.Com., 2005] Solution et B, be the event that the frst bal is white and B, be the event that the second ‘ball is white. Again the ball are drawn one after another andthe frst ball isnot replaced before the second drawing. ‘The probability that both the balls are white= P(B, > B,) = P(B)PCB,/B,) j@om——__—__—_8xercrszs— 1. Define and illustrate the following terms—Mutually exclusive events, Exhaustive set of events, Independent events, and Complementary events. [C.U., M. Com. "79; B.Com. (Hons) '80] 2. Give the classical definition of probability. What are its limitations? [C.U., B.Com. (Hons) '82; LC.WA., June ‘81; WB.HS. ’82] 3. Stateand prove the Addition Theorem of probability for two mutually exclusive events, What modification would you make if the events are not mutually exclusive? 4, With usual notations, prove that P(A +B) = Pd) +P) ~ PAB), [WBHS. 78; LCWA,, June '81] 5. (a) Establish the relation PU +B) < Pd) + PB) When does the sign of equality hold? [WBHS. 78] (©) Ifevents A and B are not mutually exclusive, show that PAB) > Pd) + P(B)—1 6. What is meant by Compound Event in probability ? State and prove the ‘Theorem of Compound Probability [C.U,, B.Com. (Hons) ’31; Be. (Econ) '81] 7. State and prove the Multiplication Theorem of probability. How is the result ‘modified when the events are independen?? [C.U, M.Com. '80] 8. Give the different definitions of probability and state their limitations if any. [C.U, M.Com. '81] 9. State whether each of the following statements is True or False: (a) The probability of an event cannot be zero (©) The probability ofa complementary event must not exceed one.The McGraw Hill Companies 10. 1. Probability Theory 6a (© The probability ofthe simultaneous occurrence of two events can never exceed the sum of the probabilities of these evens. (@ Theprobabilty of occurrence of at least one oftwo event is less than the probability of occurrence ofeach of these evens (©) Iftwo events are mutually exclusive, their complements are also mutually exclusive (f) Two events are said tobe “independent”, ifthe occurence of one of them is unaffected by the occurrence of the other event, (@) The conditional probability of an event, given another event, can never be less than the probability of the joint occurrence of these events (&) Two mutually exclusive events must be independent. (@ The mathematical expectation ofthe product of two random variables is given by he product of their mathematical expectations. (j) Ina Bemoulian series of trials, the probability of success must remain a constant in each tra Examine th following relations and state which of them are incorrect (A and B are arbitrary events): (@) Pid +B)= Pt) + PB) () PUB) < PUA) + PCB) (©) PU+B)2 Pd) (@) PUA and B) < P(A or B) (©) PB) < P(A and B) () PAU B)+ PU B)= P(A) + PB) (@ PUAN B)=PAUB)+ PAU B)+P(AUB) 4) {8 Me 43) i) 4) <2) 9 45)s PB) 0 43)--45) State which of the following statements are Correct and which re Wrong: (@) For any event 4, PUA) isa nonnegative real number. (b) IFA and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A) + P(B)= 1 (©) Ifevent A imples event B, then P(A) < P(B). @r 44) = P(A), then 4) = PUA) 5) (©) IfP(A) #0 and P(B) #0, then PCA) PB) 8) (€) IfA and B are independent events, then P(AB) = P(A) . PCB). (g) Ifevents 4 and B are independent, then 4° and B* are dependent.Ee eee 682 Business Mathematics and Statistics (b) If. and B are independent events, then A and B are also independent. ( IfP(ABC) = PLA). P(B) . P(O), then events A, B, C are independent. @ The probability mass function fx) ofa discrete random variable X may exceed 1 12, Let Abe the event that a person isa male and B the event that a person is more than 6 fet tall. Give, in words, the events whose probabilities ae represented by (@ PidorB) (i) PUA or B)~ PUA and B), Gi) 1 PA). [WwBHS.’80) 13. In each ofthe following cases, pick out the correct alternative: (@) Ifan event cannot happen, the probability of the event will be:+1,~1, 0, none of these. [CA,, Nov. '81] (b) When two perfect coins are tossed simultaneously, the probability of 113 ting atleast one head is: 1 CA., May '81) getting ra rf y ‘81] (© A dice is thrown two times, andthe sum of numbers on the faces up is raid noted, The probability of this sum being 11 is: 1, 1, 1, none of 7 - - 6° 367 18 these {CAS Now. '82] (@ Outof 120 tickets numbered consecutively from 1 to 120, one is drawn at random. What isthe probability of geting a number whichis multiple lita ory 2 LA (CA, May 1 24°8°5"16 K yy 81] (©) If two cards are drawn at random from a good deck, the probability that both the cards are ofthe same colour is: +, + , 1, none of these (ta fy oy ie may Base nd eons hen agent, ans. 3 (@) If P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.1, and P(C) = 0.3, and A, B, C are mutually fo ste en iy tal te cre et tne ey 106030 099 mn se (Tepes fragt soe os roe fpr di J.1-(3). (0 mmesties rans 77 is (2) 1-(2 (@ The probabilities of occurrence of events A and B are respectively 0.25 and 0.50, Both the events occur simultaneously with probability 0.14, ‘The probability that neither A nor B occurs is: 0.39, 0.25, 0.11, none of these. 14, Fortwo events A and B, let P(A) = 0.4, P(A + B)= 0.7 and P(B)= p. For what value of p are A and B (i) mutually exclusive, (i) independent? 15, Three perfect coins are tossed together. What is the probability of getting at least one head? [CA., Nov. '81]Ee eee Probability Theory 683 16. If four unbiased coins are tossed, find the probability that there should be two tails. [CU,, B.Com. (Hons) '32] 17. A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of cards. What is the probability that itis a heart or a queen ? [CA. May '82] 18, Ina single cast with two dice find the chance of throwing 7 (i.e. for throwing two numbers whose sum is 7). ([B.U,, B.Com. '76] 19. An ordinary die is tossed twice and the difference between the numbers of spots tumed up is noted. Find the probability of a difference of 3. ICU, B.A. (Econ) '66] 20. Three balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 6 blue and 4 red balls. ‘What is the chance that two balls are blue and one is red? (BU, B.Com. '77] 21. Anum contains 8 white and 3 red balls. If2 balls are drawn at random, find the probability that () both are white, (ii) both are red, (ii) one is of each colour. [CU, B.A. (Econ) '73] 22. Five persons 4, B, C,D, E speak at a meeting. What is the probability that A speaks immediately before B? 23. The nine digits 1, 2,3... 9 are arranged in random order to form a nine-digit ‘number. Find the probability that 1, 2 and 3 appear as neighbours in the order ‘mentioned. ICU, B.A. (Econ) '72] 24, What is the chance that a leap year, selected at random, will contain $3 ‘Sundays? (CU, BSc. '77] 25. Three cards are drawn at random one after another from a full pack of Playing (Cards. What is the probability that (i) the first two are spades and the third is hear, (i) two are spades and one isa heart? 26. A four-digit number is formed by the digits 1, 2, 3,4 with no repetition. Find the probability that the number is (i) odd, (i) divisible by 4. 21. Fourdice are thrown. Find the probability thatthe sum ofthe numbers appearing will be 18 28, There are 4 persons in a company. Find the probability that (i all of them have different brithdays, (i) at least 2 of them have the same birthday, (Gi) exactly 2 of them have the same birthday (Assume 1 year = 365 days). carane) we 1 2 1 29. @ MPA)= 7. PB)= 5. P+ B)= 3 1 i P= 2,7) find P(A +8), PAB), (1+ B) and P( AB ). Gi ec cta ee ance ta ca PI Z and P( AB) A) ana >(a8) PUA + B)= sind A. What is PC), if 4B) = 2 [CU, BSe. 73] 30. Given P( AB) =The McGraw Hill Companies 684 Business Mathematics and Statistics 51, Theta at acon il ea pmb oats, and pail ate wil gn cet contatis Ste abi of geting atleast one contracts whats the probability that he wil get both the contracts? ICA, May ‘79] 32, Fromaset of 1000 cards serially numbered 1,2, 3, .. 1000, one card is drawn at random. Find the probability that the number found is a the multiple of () 12or 18, (i) 12 and 18. 4 33. The probability that Asok can solve a problem in Business Statistics is ttre emai 2 ana Abcam he tis fallen ieee od he pty tat he potion will eed [C.U,, B.Com. (Hons) ’82] 14. Th ak pin st Xone Bus Sha etter ber, midecil eine dae Penarhcane rater nie ey atts thane pakcily on re e rie Tea 35. er a mia comping eprom Bee Tosa Ta cebaie tac fetind pontice el onaeOe ia Tem par ibe eros he pany stemene oer wees abe el becersmeolapnasiliy toecoaine eee eod aah rosy dar besee abot aco Te, Now 78 36, The posof chien cine 3 itn throm Boe aN celts On cid seocdt aon tenet Padres rar cacccinon cosa of phesa bo tee hs 77 17. Thepoabity tate tec grease dig yee is 41a student i absent on wo days, what isthe probability tht he will miss at least one test? [CU, BSc. '76] 38, Three lots contain respectively 10%, 20% and 25% defective articles. One article is drawn at random from each lot. What is the probability that among them there is (i) exactly one defective, (ii) at least one defective? 39. A candidate is selected for interview for 3 posts. For the first post there are 3 candidates, for the second post there are 4, and for the third there are 2. What are the chances of getting at least one post? [CA., May ’80] 40, An um contains 2 white and 2 black balls. Balls are drawn successively at random without replacement. What isthe probability that a black ball appears (@ for the first time in the 3rd drawing, (ji) for the 2nd time in the 4th drawing ? [CU, BSc. 76]re een Probability Theory 685 41. Five different letters are put inside S addressed envelopes by anilliterate servant. ‘What is the probability that only letters are placed inthe correct envelopes ? 42. There are two identical boxes containing respectively 4 white and 3 red balls, and 3 white and 7 red balls. A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find the probability thatthe ball is white. /C.U., B.S. (Math) ’67] 43. What is the chance of getting at least one defective item, if3 items are drawn, randomly from a lot containing 10 items, of which just 2 are defective ? ([WBHS, '78] 44. A lot contains 10 items of which 3 are defective. Three items are chosen from the lotat random one after another without replacement. Find the probability that all the three are defective. [CA, May 81] 45. A packet of 10 electronic components is known to include 3 defectives. If 4 components are randomly chosen and tested, what i the probability of finding. among them not more than one defective? [CU,, B.Com. (Hons) '80; M.Com. °79] 46. A bag contains 7 red and 5 white balls. 4 balls are drawn at random. What is the probability that (i) all of them are red; (ii) 2 of them are red and 2 white? [CU M.Com. °72] 47. A subcommittee of 6 members is to be formed out of a group consisting of 7 ‘men and 4 ladies. Calculate the probability that the subcommittee will consist of () exactly 2 ladies, and (ii) at least 2 ladies. (C.U., B.A. (Econ) '75] 48. A bag contains 8 red balls and 5 white balls. Two successive draws of 3 balls are made without replacement. Find the probability thatthe first drawing will sive 3 white balls and the second 3 red balls. [CA, May "78] 49. A bag contains 8 white and 4 red balls. Two balls are first drawn at random. and then without replacement another two balls are drawn at random. What is the probability of obtaining one white and one red ball in each drawing? [CU,, M.Com. ’80] 50. In a bridge game, North and South have 9 spades between them. Find the probability that either East or West has no spades. (There are only 13 spades in a pack of 52 cards and each player has 13 cards. The players are designated by the positions they occupy, viz. North, South, East, West.) ICU, B.Sc. (Math) '68] 51. A manufacturer supplies cheap clocks in lots of 50. A buyer, before taking a lot, tests a random sample of 5 clocks and if all are good, he accepts the lot. ‘What is the probability that he accepts a lot containing 10 defective clocks? [CU, B.Com(Hons) '67] 52. 5 cards are drawn from a pack of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the probabiity that 4 are aces and 1 is a king. [CU, B.A. (Econ) ’69] 53. A bag contains 50 tickets numbered 1, 2,3, ... 50, of which 5 are drawn at random and arranged in ascending order of their numbers x, B), PCAIB), P(BIA’). (i) If PCA U B) = 3/4, P(A) = 1/2, PCB’) = 5I8, find the values of PUM), PUB), PA’) (ii) If PCA 9 B) = V4, PCA U B) = 3/4, PCB) = 113, find PCA UB’), PUB) PAB) (iv) IE P(A)= 1/4, P(BIA) = 1/2, PLAIB)= 3/4, find PCB), PLA UB), CAB, 78, Let A, and A, be two events related to an experiment E. Iftis given that P(4,) = 172, P(d,) = 13, and P(4, 7 A;) = 1/4, then find P((4, U 43] where © stands for the complement. [CU, BSc. '76] 79. A box contains 40 envelops of which 25 are ordinary (not meant for airmail) and 16 are unstamped, while the number of unstamped ordinary envelopes is 10. Whats the probability that an envelope chosen from the box isa stamped sir-mail envelope? [CU, BSc. "76]re eee 688 Business Mathematics and Statistics 80. Let 4, B, Ce three events related to an experiment. Under what conditions will the events be () exhaustive, i) mutually exclusive, (i) independent ? 81. Let, B, Che three arbitrary events. Find expressions forthe following events, using the usual set-theory notations: @ only A occurs, (i) both A and B, but not C occu, (ii) all these events occur, (iv) at least one event occurs, (©) at east two events occur [CU, B.Sc. Econ) '81] 82. One card is drawn at random from a well-shuffed pack of 52 playing cards. Let 4 denote the event tha the card drawn is a Heart, and B denote the event that itis a face card (King, Queen of Jack). Assuming natural assignment of probabilities, evaluate (i) P(A U B), (ii) P(A 0B’). 83. The probability that construction job will be finished in time is 17/20; the probability that thee will be no strike is 3/4; and the probability that the construction job willbe finished in time, assuming that there will be no strike, is 14/15. Find the probability that (@) The construction job wil be finished in time and there will be no strike; (i) there will be strike or the job will not be finished in time. 84, What is conditional probability? [W.B.H.S. "78; LC.WA. June '82; C.U, ‘M.Com. '76 & B.Sc. (Econ) ’81] 85, Given the information that family has 2 children and that at least one of these two children is a boy, find the probability that both are boys. [CU, B.Sc. 76] 86, There are two events A and B. The probability that B happens isx when A has happened; and y when A has failed o happen. Ifthe probability that A happens isp, find the probability that happens 87. (2) Show that in general, P(BIA) = 1- P(B/ A) (©) IfP(A)> PB), show that PCA/B) > PCB). 88. When are nvo events said tobe “independent”? [WBHS. "78; CU, BSc. (Econ) '81; CWA, Jane '82] 89. Itis9to 5 against person who is 50 years living ill hes 70 and 8 to 6 against a person who is 60 living til he is 80. Find the probability tata least one of| them willbe alive after 20 years 1CA., Now. '81] 90, Prove that if 4 and B are mutually exclusive events and P(4) + 0, ‘P(B)#0, then A and B are not stochastically independent [C.U,, BSc. (Econ) '81] 91. Distinguish between pairwise independence and mutual independence of events ICU, B.Sc. Econ) '82] 92, (a) Define stochastic independence of three evens. (©) Suppose that ll the four possible outcomes e,,€5€5 €4 ofan experiment are equally likely. Define the events 4, B, Cas A= {e1,€4},B = fea, €4)0 C= {es €4) ‘What can you say about the dependence or independence of the events ABC? [CU, B.Sc. 76]The McGraw Hill Companies Probability Theory 69 93. One shot is fired form each of three guns. Let 4, B, C denote the events that the target is hit by the first, second and the third gun respectively. Assuming that 4, B, C are mutually independent events and the P(4) = 0.5, P(B) = P(C)= 038, find the probability that at least on hit is registered. 94, There are three men aged 60, 65 and 70 years, The probability to live 5 years ‘more is 0.8 for a 60 year old, 0.6 for a 65 year old, and 0.3 for a 70 year old person. Find the probability that at least two of the three persons will remain alive 5 years hence. [C.U, B.Com. (H) '81] 95. The probabilities of occurrence of 3 independent events are p, 4, r. Find the probabilities of (i) occurrence of atleast one of the events, (ii) occurrence of exactly one of the events (whichever occurs). 96. If PABA OC =0, show that PUA BIC)= PIC) + PBIC) 97. If, B, Care independent events, prove that A and B U C are independent. 98. If events 4, Az... 4, are independent, show that {Us)- 2o2=——_______answers——_——_—_—_—__ i 9. True—(b), (©), (B, Gs False—(a), (@), (©) (9, (0). 10. @, ©). (@)@) 11, Correct—(a), (©), (€), (9, (4); Wrong—(b), (2), (@), Ds). 12. (i) The person is either a male or more than 6 f. tall Gi) The person is either a male not more than 6 ft. tall, or a female but more than 6 f. tall (Gi) The person is not a male 13. (@) 0; (®) 3/4; (©) 1/18; (@) 1/5; (@) none of these; (F) 1/3; (g) 0.994; @)1- 6/67; (0.39 PUY) PAD). PAY) 14, (0) 03; i) 05 15, 78 16. 38 17. 4/13 18. 1/6 19. 16 20. 12 21, 28/55, 3/55, 24/55 22. US 23. 72 24. 217 25. 13/850, 39/850 26. 1/2, V4 27. 5/81 28. (364 x 363 x 362)/365? = 0,984; 1 — 0.984 = 0.016; (6 x 364 x 363)/365° 28. () 320,318, ¥S; (2980, 190,21 6; Gi) 1315, Vs 30. 1/3, 1/2; 14/45 0.111, 0.027 33. 101/105 x. 73/105, 32/105 3s 06 36. 13/32 37. 9125 38. 3/8, 23/50 39. 3/4 40. 1/6, 1/2 41. 6 42, 61/140 43, 8/15 44, 1/120 48. 23 46. 7199, 14/33, 47. 5/11, 53/66 48, 7/429) 49. 112/495 50, W/115 SI. "CPCs 52. 4c,re een 0 Business Mathematics and Statistics 33. 56. 58. 61. 64, n. B. m4. 82. 84, 85. 86. 87. 91. 97. 290,200 /9C, 54, 32/99 55. 496/729 1140 x 617/70 ‘57, 128/625, 821/3125 9x 445%, 101 x 48/51" 59. 8/27, 8/81, 16/81 60. 150/343, 4/7 35/44, 35/48 2. 1-G5/367 63). 14 Rs 19.25 65. Rs283 7. 18 S5/118 {1,2,3,4,5,6,7), (1,3, 5}.5, {8}, (2.4, 6,7,8), 6 (5} ta.ce}, fe} 78, E= (HHH, HHT, THH, THT, PE)=13 (518, 5/8, 3/8, 34, 18, 2/3, 1/4; (i) 1/8, 5/8, 2/3; Gi) 11/12, 5/12, 5/8; Gv) 116, 724, 17720 83. 5/12 9140 @ PALBLO Gi) PAU BUO= PLA) + PB) +P (ii) PAB) = PA).PB) PA C= PA).PO), PBA 0)= PB). PO) and PBC ANB’ NC,ANBOC,ANBOCAUBUC, (nB)UBAQUCNA) 11726, 5726 88. 7/10, 3/10 90. 13 p+ (py 94. 31/49 Pairwise independent, but mutually ‘dependent’ 98. 0.96The McGraw Hill Companies GAD memovvcrz0n ‘The word probability literally denotes ‘chance’, and the theory of probability deals with laws governing the chances of occurrence of phenomena which are unpredictable in nature. ‘Although historically the probability theory originated from the games of chance played by tossing coins, throwing dice, drawing cards etc,, its importance has enormously increased in recent years. Today, the notions of probability find important applications in almost all disciplines—physics, chemistry, biology, psychology, education, economics, business, industry, engineering etc. The concept of probability plays a vital role in statistics GD namo expenruene, ovsCOME, EVENT (1) Random Experiment: When a coin is tossed (as is done before the stat of a cricket match), cither Head or Tail appears. Bu the result of any toss cannotbe predicted in advance, and is said to ‘depend on chance’. Similarly, when a de is tossed and the ‘number coming on the uppermost face is observed, one of the numbers 1,2, 3,4, 5, 6 , £3, E, Eg as defined in Example 21.6 (b). ‘These evens are mutually exclusive, because if one of them occurs, another cannot. However, the four events are not exhaustive, because the complete group of elementary events of the experiment includes some other events, viz. E, and E (©) When a die is thrown, let A denote the event ‘Odd number of points’ B denote the event ‘At least 2 points’ ‘These two events together form an exhaustive set; because the possible outcomes of this experiment can be described by one or the other ofthe events A and B. However, ‘they are not mutually exclusive, because the occurrence of event A does not necessarily imply non-occurrence of B. (G) Trial: Any particular performance of the random experiment is usually called atrial. (4) Cases Favourable to an Event: Amongall the possible outcomes ofa random ‘experiment, those cases which entail occurrence of an event A are called ‘cases favourable to A” Example 21.8 (@) When a die is thrown, these are six possible outcomes, viz 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6. ‘Among these, 3 cases (viz. 1, 3, 5) are favourable to the event ‘odd number of points’, and 3 cases (viz. 2,4, 6) are favourable to the event ‘even number of ints” (&) When 2 coins ae tose, out ofthe 4 possible outcomes Hi, HT, TH, TT, there are 3 cases favourable to the event ‘at least one head’, (viz. HH, HT, TH), and 2 cases favourable to the event ‘one head’ (viz. HT, TH), (©) Whena card is drawn froma fall pack, there are 52 possible outcomes; because any of the 52 cards may be drawn, Out of these only 4 cases are favourable to the event ‘ace’, viz. the cases when the card drawn is either an ace of spade, or anace of heart, or of diamond, or of club. There are 13 cases favourable to the event ‘spade’ because the drawing of any of the 13 spade cards will entail drawing a spade. Similarly there are 26 cases favourable to the event ‘red card’.The McGraw Hill Companies as Business Mathematics and Statistics (8) Equally Likely: The outcomes of a random experiment are said to be ‘equally likely’, if after taking into consideration all relevant evidence, none of them can be expected in preference to another. Example 21.9 (@) Ifa coin is unbiased (i.., is perfectly homogenous and is uniform in both faces), there is no reason to expect that, for instance, heads will appear more often than tals, or vice versa. The two outcomes. Head and Tail are therefore equally likely. (b) Ifa die is unbiased (i.e, is a perfect geometrical cube in shape and made of hhomogencous material) thee is no reason to suspect that in any throw of the dic some particular face will come up more frequently than another face. The six outcomes showing points 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 are therefore considered ‘equally likely.” (©) Iftwo unbiased coins are thrown, the elementary events HH, HT, TH and TT are equally likely. But the outcomes “2 heads’ ‘I head’ and ‘no head’ are not equally likely. (© Outa a pk feds, ads maybe wn in 2, = 52252 = 1326 ways, and the drawing of a pair of cards gives rise to an outcome. Since the drawing of 2 cards may reveal any of these 1326 possible combinations, the outcomes are equally likely @1.d TECHNIQUES oF COUNTING Some mathematical methods are shown below, which ae often helpful for determining ‘without direct enumeration the number of outcomes ofa random experiment or the umber of cases favourable to an event, These are referred to as “Combinatorial Methods" 1. Fundamental Principle of Counting: If several processes can be performed inthe following manner: the first process in p ways, the second in q ways, the third in r ways, and so on, then the total number of ways in which the whole process can be performed inthe order indicated is given by the product. par 14.1) 2. Permutation: The total number of ways of arranging (called permutation) n distinct objects taken rat atime is given by "P= nn 1) (0-2). n—r + 1) (21.4.2) 3. Arrangement ina Line or Circle: The total number of ways in which n distinct objects can be arranged among themselves is @inaling = n!=1.2.3..0 @1.43) Gi) inacile — (m=1)! Q144) 4, Permutation with Repetition: The number of ways of arranging n objects, among which p are alike, q are alike, rare alike et. is plgirta 14s)The McGraw Hill Companies Probability Theory 9 5. Combination: The total number of possible groups (called combination) that ccan be formed by taking r objects out of n distinct objects is given by +) -F@=nI @146) 6. Combination (any number at a time): The total number of ways of forming, groups by taking any number from n distinct objects is "CF GHC FHC = P-L 47 7. Choosing Balls from an Urn: The total number of ways of choosing a white balls and b black balls from an urn containing A white and B black balls is 4c, AC, 2148) ‘This may be extended to more than two categories of balls. 8. Ondered Partitions (Distinct objects): The total number of ways of distributing nn distinet objects into r compartments marked 1, 2, ... ris r 149) ‘The number of ways in which the n objects can be distributed so that the compartments contain respectively my, .. object is nt nlm Lonml (214.10) 9. Ordered Partitions (Identical objects): The total number of ways of distributing, nn identical objects into r compartments marked I, 2, .., ris aero ea. |fnone of the compartments should remain empty, the total number of ways of distributing the balls is "G4 1.412) 10. Sum of Points on the Dice: When n dice are thrown, the numberof ways of geting a total ofr points is given by the Coefficient fy in ge ++ +teses 14.13) 11, Dearrangements and Matches: If n objects numbered 1, 2, 3, ... 2 are distributed atrandom inn places also numbered 1,2, 3,...2,a\°match” is said to occur if an object occupies the place corresponding to its number. The numberof permutation in which no match occurs is bgt te At 14.14) mfie Z31 This is also known as “derangement”. ‘The number of permutations of n objects in which exactly r matches occur is + cyt } (21.4.15) ‘on 1" 1 Cr In 3re eee 60 Business Mathematics and Statistics 21.5) CLASSICAL (OR ‘A PRIORI’) DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY If a random experiment has n possible outcomes, which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely, and m of these are favourable to an event 4, then the ‘probability’ of the event is defined as the ratio m/n. In symbols ay-™ aust Number of outcomes favourable to the event Total number of mutually exclusive, exhaustive ‘and equally likely outcomes of the ‘random experiment Itmay be noted that ‘probability’, as defined above, is only a ratio of two numbers, in which the numerator (m) is the number of favourable cases and the denominator (n) is the total number of possible outcomes satisfying certain conditions. Therefore, for the calculation of probability the undernoted steps should be followed: (Step 1): Enumerate all the possible outcomes of the experiment, such that they satisfy the 3 criteria of being ‘mutually exclusive’, ‘exhaustive’, and “equally likely’. Count the number (n) of such outcomes. (Step 2): Check how many of these cases are favourable to the event for which the probability is desired, Let this number be m. (Step 3): Divide m by n, and the result gives the probability of the event. Probability, as defined by (21.5.1), always lies between 0 and 1. O Sos Example21.11 Two unbiased coins are tossed. Whats the probability of obtaining (@ both heads, (b) one head and one tail, (c) both tails, (@) at least one head? Solution The experiment has 4 possible outcomes, viz. HH, HT, TH, TT (the two letters in ‘each case denoting the results on the Ist and 2nd coins respectively). These are mutually ‘exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely (Examples 21.6¢,21.7e, 21.9¢). Thus n= 4. The cases favourable tothe events ae as follows: Event Favourable cases Number of favourable (@) Both heads Hn 1 (b) One head and one tail = HT TH 2 (©) Both tails 1 1 (@) Atleast one head HM, HT, TH 3 Applying the classial definition (1.5.1) (@) P (both heads) = 1/4 (&) P (one head and one tal) = 2/4 = 172 (©) P (both tails) = V4 (© P (both least one head) = 3/4 os Example 21.12 4 die is tossed and the number of points appearing on the uppermost face is observed. What is the probability of obtaining (a) an even number, () an odd number, (c) less than 3, (d) a “six” ? Solution 1 this experiment there ate 6 possible outcomes, viz. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. These are ‘mutually exclusive and exhaustive, Ifthe die is assumed to be unbiased, thea the 6 outcomes ‘are also equally likely, Thus n = 6. Out of them. 3 cases (viz.,2, 4, 6) ae favourable to ‘even number” 3 cases (viz, 2,3, 5)are favourable to ‘odd number” 2 cases (viz. 1,2) are favourable to ‘less than 3° 1 ease (viz, 6) is favourable to ‘six’ Pleven number) = 3/6» 12 Plodd number) = 316 = 1/2 Piless than 3) = 216" 13 PGsis) = 16 os Example 21.13 When two unbiased coins are tossed. what isthe probability of “obtaining (a) 3 heads, (b) not more than 3 heads?ce eee a2 Business Mathematics and Statistics Solution There are posible outcomes, vz, HH, HT, TH, TT. These are mutually exclusive, ‘exhaustive and equally likely. Hence n= Since none of these cases is favourable to the event “3 heads’, m= 0. Therefore PG heads) =.0/4= 0 (Note that in a toss of two coins, 3 heads are impossible). ‘Aga, we see hall the four outcomes ar favourable tothe event ‘not more than 3 heads? (m=4). 80 (not more than 3 heads) = 4/8 = 1 (Note that ina toss of 2 coins itis certain that we get not more than 3 heads infact, at most 2 heads may be obtained) Sos Example 21.14 Two coins are tossed. Find the probability of geting both heads ‘or both tails. Solution Assuming thatthe coins are unbiased, there are 4 outcomes, viz, HH, HT, TH, TT, ‘which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely. Out of them, 2 cases, viz. HH and TT, are favourable tothe event “both heads or both tals”. Hence by the classical definition of probability. prwanin os Example 21.15 Two dice with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are thrown simultaneously and the points on the dice are multiplied together. Find the probability that the product is 12. Solution \eewo dice ae thrown, there are 36 posible outcomes (see Example 21.2(), page 2), shown a pairs of numbers corresponding tothe points onthe It and the 2nd dice. These ‘outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, and also equally likely on the assumption that the dice are unbiased. OF them only the following 4 cases are favourable to the event “product 122, 6), (3,4), (4,3), (6,2). So, using the classical definition, 41 P35 os Example 21.16 A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls. One ball is drawn. What isthe probability that it is white ? Solution Lets puta serial number on each ball as follows. White balls 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 and Black balls: 7, 8, 9, 10. There are 10 outcomes as regards the number on the selected ball, because any ofthe 10 balls could be drawn. Since the balls are assumed to be identical except in colour, any ofthe balls is as likely to appear as any other ball. Out ofthese 10 possible ‘outcomes, which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely, only 6 cases (viz. when ‘the number ofthe selected ball is 1, or 2, ..or 6) are favourable to the event “white ball”. Hence, Note that here Number of white balls Probability ~ —yoraTaumber oF Balls ionre eee Probability Theory Example 21.17 1/2 balls are drawn one after another from a bag containing 3 ‘white and 5 black balls, what isthe probability that () the fist ball is white and the 2nd is black; (i) one ball is white and the other is black ? [DM."78] Solution Lets pt serial numbers onthe balls as follows: Whites ~ 1,2, 3; Black —4,5,6, 7,8. In order to find the total aumber of possible outcomes, we see that the Ist ball may be selected in 8 ways, because any of the 8 balls may be drawn. Corresponding to each way of drawing the Ist ball the 2nd ball may be drawn in 7 ways (because there remain only 7 balls in ‘the bag after the Ist ball has been drawn). Hence the 2 balls may be drawn in 8x7 = 56 ways. Since the ball are identical in al respects except in colour these 56 cases are mutually exclusive, ‘exhaustive and equally likely (@ As regards the number of favourable cases, the Ist ball wll be white only if any ofthe balls numbered 1, 2,3 is drawn Le, in 3 ways. When the Ist ball has been obtained in any ofthese 3 ways, the 2nd ball will be black only if any of the balls numbered 4,5, 6,7,8 is drawn, ie, in 5 ways. Hence the number of cases favourable tothe event is, 3x 515.50, (Gi) Weave seen that the number of ways of drawing a white ball and a black ball inthe order (white, black) is 15. Similarly, it can be shown that the number of ways of drawing a white ball anda black ball in the order (black, white) is 5 x3 = 15. Hence the number of cases favourable to the event “one ball i white andthe other black”, inrespective of the order in which they are drawa, is (15 + 15) = 30. Therefore, 30_15 36 8 Gos Example 21.18 Two cards are drawn from a full pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that (i) both are red cards, (i) one isa heart and the other isa diamond. Solution (First method) (Ignoring the order of drawing) Two cards may be drawn out of ‘the pack of $2 cars in C= 1326 ways. These outcomes are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equaly likely (The number of cases favourable othe event “both red cards” in #C, = 325, because the pack contains only 26 red cards. 325 _ 25 > i326 ~ 102 (Gi) Inorder to find the numberof cases favourable tothe event “I heart and I diamond”, wwe se that I heart canbe drawn i 13 ways and similarly 1 diamond can be drawn in 13 ways (because each pack contains 13 cards of each suit: Spades, Hearts, Diamonds, Clubs). Since any of the heart card can be combined with any of diamond card to give a group of I heart and | diamond, the number of cases favourable tothe event is 13 x 13 = 168. 169 _ 13 > i326 ~ 102 (Second method) (Considering the order of drawing) The Ist card may be drawn in 52 ‘ways and corresponding to each way of drawing the 1st card the 2nd card may be drawn in 51 ‘ways. Hence the total number of cases, considering the order, i 52 x 1 = 2682.The McGraw Hill Companies & Business Mathematics and Statistics @ Since the Ist red card can be drawn in 26 ways, and thereafter the 2nd red card in 25 ‘ways, the number of cases favourable to “two red cards” is 26 x 25 = 650. 650 _ 25 P* 3652 ~ 102 (i) Here the number of cases favourable to the order (heart diamond) is 13 x 13 = 169; similarly the number of cases favourable tothe order (diamond, heart) is also 169. Hence, the number of cases favourable to “one heart and one diamond” is (169 + 169) = 338 283 P= 2659 7 jon (#8 before) eos Example 21.19 Whatis he probability that all 3 children in a family have different birthdays? (Assume, I year = 365 days). Solution The 1st child may be born on any of 365 days ofthe year; the 2nd also on any of ‘the 365 days, and similarly the 3d child. Hence, the total number of possible ways in which the 3 children have birthdays is 365 x 365 x 365. These cases are mutually exclusive, exhaustive ‘and equally likely. As regards the numberof favourable cases out of these, we note that the Ist child may ave any of the 365 days of the year as its birthday. In order thatthe 2nd child has a birthday different from that of the Is, it should have been born on any ofthe 364 remaining ays of the year; similarly the 3rd shouldbe born on any of the remaining 363 days. So, the ‘number of cases favourable to the event “different birthdays” is 365 x 364 x 363, 365 364363 P~ 365% 365x365 — 9997 ion | Example 21.20 Five persons 4, B, C, D, E occupy seats in a row at random. What isthe probability that A and B sit next to each other? Solution Five persons can arrange themselves in a row, without restition, in $= 1 x2x 3 x 4x5 120 ways. Considering 4 and B together, they can arrange themselves in 4 ! x2 = (12x34) x2 48 ways; because A may be to the left orto the right of B 482 P* 20" s [Note: The phrase ‘at random’ denotes ‘with equal probability’) oa Example 21.21 batch contains 10 articles of which 4 are defective. 3 articles ‘are chosen at random, what isthe probability that none of them is defective? Solution “Total number of ways of selecting 3 articles (without restiction) out of 10 is 196, = 120, Ifnone ofthe selected articles is defective, they must forma group out ofthe 6 n0n- defective articles. Hence the numberof favourable cases is °C; = 20. 20 1 P* 206 os Example 21.22 10 distinguishable balls are distributed at random into 4 boxes. What isthe probability that a specified box contains exactly 2 balls?The McGraw Hill Companies Probability Theory 635 Solution The first ball may go to any ofthe four boxes and hence may be distributed in 4 ‘ways. The nd ball may als be distributed in 4 ways, the 3rd ball in 4 ways, the 10h ballin 4 ways. Hence the total number of ways in which the 10 balls may be distributed into the 4 boxes is 4x4 x4 .. (10 times) = 4? (See 21.49). In order to find the numberof favourable ‘cases, we See thatthe specified box may receive any of the !°C, groups of 2 balls out of 10. ‘When two such balls have gone into that box the remaining 8 balls may be distributed in any ‘manner into the remaining 3 boxes in 3* ways. Hence the total number of favourable cass is 19¢, x38= 45 x34. Therefore, =os Example 21.23 1/10 persons are arranged at random (i) in a line (ii) in a ring, {find the probability that 2 particular persons will be next to each other. Solution (@ Ten persons can be arranged in a line in 10 ! ways (see formula 21.4.3), which are ‘mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely. To find the number of favourable cases, Le, when the two particular persons remain together, we consider the two a8 fone (Supporting they are fastened together), so thatthe number of permutations is 9! But the two persons can arrange themselves in 2 ! ways without affecting the position of any ofthe remaining persons. Hence the total number of favourable cases is 9! 2. Using the classical definition, 912 Pi or (Gi) Tenpersons can arrange themselves ina ring in 9! ways (see formula 21.4.4) Arguing as before, the numberof favourable cases is 812 Hence giz! 2 Pam oy os Example 21.24 X.and Ystand ina line at random with 10 other people. What is the probability that there are 3 people between X and Y? (CU, B.A,, (Econ) "66; B.Sc. (Math,) 70; B.U., B.A., (Econ) "67 Solution (First method) There are 12 people including X and Y and they can arrange ‘themselves in m= 12 ! ways. These n arrangements are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and ‘equaly likely. To find the numberof arrangements (m) favourable to the event (viz. 3 people standing between Xand ¥), let us fist consider the case when X occupies place | and Yoccupies place 5 (there are 3 people in between), so thatthe remaining 10 places canbe filled up in 101 ways. Placel 234567891011 12 x Y 1X and Y interchange their positions, we have another set of 10! arrangements. Thus, with _Xand Y in places (I, 5) the total numberof arrangements favourable tothe event is 2x 10!) In fact, with X and Y occupying any two specified places, the number of arrangement is (2X10)!. Among the total number of n arangements, only those cases wil be favourable tothe ‘event when X and Y¥ occupy the following & pairs of places:The McGraw Hill Companies 66 Business Mathematics and Statistics (1,5), 2, 6), 7), 4, 8), (5,9, (6 10), (7,11), (8, 12) Hence, the total number of arrangements favourable to the event is m= 8(2 x 10 1). By the ‘classical definition of probability 21.5.1), 2x10) _ 8x2 _ 4 Gir) at Rx 33 (Second method) Of the 12 places, X and Y could occupy any 2 places in °C, = 66 ways, ‘which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely. There wil be 3 persons between Xand Y, if the latter occupy places (1, 5), 2, 6), 3, 7), (4, 8), (5,9), (6, 10), (7, 1), 8, 12). “ence the number of favourable cases is 8, So, the required probability = 8/66 = 4/33. Gos Example 21.25 Twelve persons, amongst whom are X and Y, are seated at random ‘ata round table, What is the probability that there are 3 persons between X and Y? Solution Xcan occupy any of the 12 seas, and correspondingly Y any of the remaining 11 seats, Hence X and Y can occupy seats in 12 x 11 = 132 ways. There will be 3 persons in between if X and ¥ occupy seat (1, 5), (2, 6),(3, 7), (4,8), (5, 9) (6, 10), (7, 1D, (8, 12),(9, Dy (20,2), (11,3), (12,4). Since Yand ¥ may interchange their sets, the total number of favourable ceases is 122 = 24 4 Required probability = 35> Ty (Note tht the permutation of persons in a ring or circle is (n- 1) ! but around a ‘round ‘table’ isn; because inthe former the positions are relative to their neighbours, but in the latter ‘relative to their seat numbers GOs Example 21.26 4 lady declares that by tasting a cup of tea with milk, she can discriminate whether milk or tea infusion was first added to the cup. In order to test these assertion, 10 cups of tea are prepared—S in one way and 5 in the other, and presented to the lady for judgement ina random order. Assuming thatthe lady has no discrimination power, calculate the probability that she would judge correctly all the ‘cups, it being known to her that 5 are of each kind. What is the probability, ifthe tea cups were presented to the lady in 5 pairs—each air consisting of cups of each kind—in a random order? Solio Sine Sas ct inp wit ak) (nin pecrpeierdy eben keen liars iat oer fe een ees ie me ne See ere em een ee one ee erent ec eae SE ee dah cs ea ere poet eeintor mentee ayer nly ly ronment fepeana Scant Ne cid ate hergneomoaeoucetse aosre eee Probability Theory 67 Example 21.27 bax contains twenty tickets ofidentical appearance, the tickets being numbered I, 2,3, ., 20. f3 tickets are chasen at random, find the probability thatthe numbers on the drawn tickets are in arithmetic progression. [CU, BSe.71] Solution Tore tickets canbe drawn out of 20 in °C, ways. The total number of possible ‘outcomes, which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely, is therefore 20x19%18 1x2x3_~ 140 ‘The 3 numbers on the draven tickets will bein AP, ithey have a common diference of cither 1,02, 03, oF at most 9. With a common difference 1 there ae 18 ses, vz (1,2,3),2,3,4).G, 4,5). (18, 19,20), With 2 common difference 2, there ae 16 ses, viz 1,3, 5} 24,6), ,5, 7,» (16, 18,20), With 2 common difference 3, there ae 14 ses, viz (1,4, @, 5,8), 6.9), (14, 17,20), and soon, Proceeding this way, ally ‘With 2 common difference 9, there ae only 2 ses, viz. 1,10, 19), @, 11,20), ‘Therefore, the total amber of sets of3 numbers in A, whateverbe the common diference, ice, number of favourable cases, is m= 18+ 16+ 18+.. +2=90 Therefore, the equied probability is m_ 90 3 PO Tao 38 os Example 21.28 Four cards are drawn at random from a full pack. What is the probability that they belong to (i) 4 different suits, (ii) different suits and denominations ? Solution Tue 4 cards may be assumed to have been drawn one by one without replacement. ‘The first card can be drawn in $2 ways, the second card in 51 ways, the third in 50 and the fourth in 49 ways. So, the total number of ways in which the cards can be drawn (attention ‘being paid to the order) is 2 x S1 x 50> 49. (formula 21.4.1) (@ Inorder to find the number of cases favourable to the event ‘one card drawn from each, suit’, we see thatthe fist drawn card may belong to any suit, and hence may be chosen, in $2 ways. There now remain 51 cards of which 12 belong tothe same suit a the first card and 39 belong to other suits. Since the 4 cards are to belong to different suits, the second eard should come from the 39, Thus the second card may be drawn in 39 ways; similarly the third card in 26 ways and the fourth card in 13 ways. The number of {avourable cass is therefore $2 x 39 x 26 x 13. The required probability is 52x39%26x13 2197 2x51x50x49 ” 20825 (Gi) In order to calculate the number of favourable cases, the frst card can, as before, be dravin in 52 ways. The second card must not belong tothe same suit and denomination asthe first and can be drawn in 36 ways (because in the remaining SI cards, 39 belong. to other suits of which 3 are of the same denominating asthe frst and should be (ee Example 21.50)Se eee 68 Business Mathematics and Statistics excluded). Similarly, the third card may be drawn in 22 ways and the fourth in 10 ways. ‘The numberof favourable cates is then 52 x 36% 22 x 10, The required probability is 52x36x22x10 264 S2x51X50x49 — 4165 Gos Example 21.29 A group of 2n boys and 2n girls is divided at random into two ‘equal batches. Find the probability that each batch will be equally divided into boy's and girls. Solution ‘Tye group of 4n boys and girs willbe divided into two equal batches, if2n outof ‘them ae selected to form one batch (the remaining 2n wil form another batch). This seletion ‘canbe done in "C,, ways. In order that each batch consists of equal numbers of boys and girls, ‘the fist batch of 2n selected persons should contain n boys and n girls. So, the number of favourable cass is *C, ."C, = @*C,)?. Hence, the required probability is CPUC ap, fos Example 21.30 From a pack of 52 cards, an even number of cards is drawn. Show that the probability that these consist half of red and half black is Solution Ax even sumber of cards drawn may either be 2. oF 4, oF 6,.. oF $2. From the full ‘ack of $2 cards, 2 cards canbe drawn in S2C, ways, 4 cards in 2C, ways, and s0 on. So, the {otal number of Ways of drawing as even number of cards is Boyt BO BC c+ + 2Cyy= O11) Assuming tat ll the different ways of drawing an even numberof ards are equally probable inrespecive of their number, these cases are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely. ‘When 2 cards are drawn, the number of ways of getting I ed and 1 black cards is (see formula 21.4.8) #C,x2C, = CC). When 4 cards ae drawn, the number of ways of getting 2 red and 2 black cards is similarly **C, x “C= C,)*; and so on. Hence the number of favourable cassis CSP + OCP + HEP + + Cag? ae ee 8G ser aBT Using the classical definition of probability, the result follows. Note: Binomial coefficients satisfy the following relations: (8) NCH ACY+ACa a ANC DP ©) HGH HAC HC HCY HAC a OEE ©) CCPH CEP + OEY +. CCP = Cy] os Example 21.31 _10dissimilar balls are distributed at random into 4 boxes marked A,B, C.D. Find the probability that these boxes contain respectively 2, 4, 4, 0 balls. Solution Tye total numberof possible ways of distribution is 4!. The number of ways of ‘distributing the balls so that Boxes 4, B, C, D contain respectively 2, 4, 4,0 balls is (see formulae 21.4.9 and 21.4.10)