Impact of climate change on the performance and longevity of KETRACO’s transmission infrastructure

By Simba, L., Nango, B. and Wangari, O.

1 Introduction
Climate change is initiated and perpetuated by both natural and human causes. Climate is the long-
term weather pattern of a particular geographic area, typically tracked for at least 30 years. Over the
course of time, earth has gone through several global climate changes, including the asteroid that
killed the dinosaurs (Switek, 2016), the ice ages, and the warm period that we are in now (Eldredge et
al, 2010). Specific regions of the earth have also gone through local climate changes due to large
storms, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions that mostly only affect the target locations (Crowley,
2000 and Jaramillo, 2012). Since human civilizations started intelligently designing ecosystems by
channelling water, doing agriculture, building cities, and so on—we have been intentionally, and
sometimes unintentionally, changing climates as well (Switek, 2016).

According to Palermo, 2018, civilization arguably did not start contributing to climate change at a
global scale until after the industrial revolution with the proliferation of coal-powered steam engines
and the burning of fossil fuels into the air. The portable energy transformation device was
revolutionary; the abundance with which humans lived and moved increased dramatically (Switek,
2016).

Now climate change is affecting infrastructure systems by changing the weather conditions in which
they must operate. For instance, whereas the biggest cause of outages in the Kenyan transmission
network between July 2021 to November 2022 has been unestablished transient faults, sixteen (16)
outages, not attributable to unestablished transient faults, were also recorded in the network. These
outages were caused by frayed conductors, broken cross arms, collapsed towers, swinging conductors,
snapped insulators, broken conductors, tree branches falling on conductors, ruptured cables, and
heavy rains. Of the sixteen (16), at least five (5) were directly linked to climate-related events. (Source:
National Control Centre and KETRACO data)

A major consideration in assessing the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission

infrastructure is the rate of climate change compared to the lifecycle of power system infrastructure
(Fant C. et al). There is a need to identify the physical impacts of climate change / extreme weather
on the electricity transmission network because weather-related power interruptions are
exceptionally costly, and a large fraction of interruptions result from extreme, low probability events
(Campbell et al, 2012).

1.1 Statement of the problem

Infrastructure is typically designed and constructed based on codes and standards that use observed
historic weather data to determine the size and/or type of structure needed to withstand probable
future weather events. As climate change increasingly alters climatic conditions and patterns away
from observed history, this traditional approach to infrastructure design may no longer be adequate,
leading to power interruptions and other physical impacts to the electric grid to change in frequency
and/or duration, and imposing unexpected costs (Fant C. et al, 2020).

This study aims to identify changes in the performance and longevity of KETRACO’s transmission
infrastructure i.e., pylons, conductors, and transformers, attributable to changes in the climate over
time.

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1.2 Rationale
Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO) is a state-owned corporation whose core
mandate is designing, building and maintaining high voltage electricity transmission lines and
substations that form the backbone of Kenya’s national transmission grid.

KETRACO is also mandated to build and maintain regional interconnectors that facilitate power trade
within the African region. This is by virtue of Kenyan being a member of the Eastern Africa Power Pool
countries that aim to promote regional power integration and enhance efficient use of the available
potentials of power resources within the region.

KETRACO currently owns and operates approximately 4127km circuit length comprising of 400kV,
220kV and 132kV, 36 new substations and 30 substation extension. This investment is worth billions
of Kenya Shillings, so the capital stock at risk of weather-related impacts is substantial. In the United
States, about 40% of the total capital asset base of the electricity system is in Transmission and
Distribution (IEA 2010 and ADB, 2012), which is approximately the percentage of Transmission and
Distribution investment in the power sector expected in Kenya.

The lifespan of KETRACO’s electricity transmission infrastructure is typically 40 years and it can take
over a decade to plan, construct and commission new infrastructure. Thus, infrastructure design
decisions made today will ultimately have to cope with weather conditions experienced several
decades from now (Fant C. et al, 2020).

Moreover, transmission infrastructure is critical in ensuring the delivery of electricity from generation
to the consumer. Its reliability is essential for economic development as almost all other major
infrastructure and services rely on it i.e., commerce, communication, manufacturing, defence,
emergency, finance, agriculture, healthcare, information technology, transportation, water among
others.

2 Overview of Literature
2.1 Role of climate in ensuring resilient transmission infrastructure
Climate is typically considered in infrastructure system designs by using several years’ recent weather
conditions to specify tolerances. Because weather is evidently not the same every year due to the
impact of climate change, more robust forecasting can only be achieved with lots of reliable data. For
example, design data that was used thirty years ago in the design of pylons traversing the rift valley
all the way to Nairobi should not be used to construct similar pylons on the same route. Collated data
will indicate that due to increased deforestation, about 6% decrease between 2000 and 2020 (GFW),
the wind speeds in the rift valley have gone up due to the reduced wind breakers.

2.2 Electricity transmission infrastructure vulnerabilities to climate change

To ensure reliability of the electricity transmission grid, supply and demand must be balanced, over
and under voltages and frequency fluctuations must be avoided, and the systems should not pose
health and or safety threats to the environment. This means that operating temperatures must be
kept at safe levels, grids should not be interrupted, and distances from trees, people, and buildings
should be kept at safe levels (European Commission, 2011).

Table 2-1 below summarizes a range of climate change impacts on transmission networks adapted
from ADB 2012.

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Table 2-1: Climate change impacts on transmission networks

Climate Variable Key impacts Impacted Adaptation Level of impact

component options
Wind speed Wind and storm Pylons Variable Variable from
and storms damage moderate to high

Increasing heat Overhead Continuous Up to 20% capacity

convection conductor increase for each m/s
rise in wind speed
Increased air De-rating / Transformers Continuous –1% load per 1°C rise
temperatures Reduced carrying
capacity
Decreased Overhead Continuous Resistance rises ~0.4%
conductivity conductor & per 1°C degree rise
Underground –0.5 to –1% line load
cables capacity per1°C rise
Sag Overhead 50°C 4.5 cm per 1°C rise1
conductor
Increasing Moisture Underground >55°Cat cable Reduces cable
drought migration cables surface capacity by 29%
Dry soil Underground Variable Repair cost roughly
movement cables $4,200 per fault
Flooding Inundation Substations Varies with Up to 100% loss of
and Pylons local supply locally
conditions
Cable breakage Underground Varies with Up to 100% loss of
cables local supply locally
conditions

Strong winds can damage conductors, OPGW and pylons as was witnessed on 220kV Isinya-Embakasi
and 400kV Loyangalani-Suswa transmission lines respectively recently.

On the other hand, conductor integrity can be reduced due to line sag which is as a result of higher
ambient temperatures. High ambient temperature also limits the power rating of overhead
conductors, underground cables, and transformers. Network losses can increase by 1% if temperature
increases 3°C in a network with initial losses of 8% (European Commission, 2011).

During extended periods of heat and drought, dust can build up on insulators thus making them
susceptible to flashovers. Lightning can also affect reliability (EPRI, 2008).

2.3 Power transformers and impacts of climate change

Power transformers play an important role in power delivery and the integrity of the power system
network. Climatic changes such as increased ambient temperature may lead to transformer
temperature rise defined as the average temperature rise of the windings above the ambient
temperature when the transformer is loaded at its nameplate rating. This in turn increases the internal
operating temperatures, the oil coolant, and winding temperatures, causes the deterioration of
insulation in the transformer, and may result in premature failure of transformers. Roughly, for every
1℃ increment in ambient temperature, the loading capacity can be decreased by 1%.

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at conductor surface for 35°C ambient temperature and span of 400 meters

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Therefore, increase in the number of hot days can lead to the breach of thermal limits of transformers
since not all transformers have the opportunity to cool sufficiently at night. If the transformers are not
designed to allow for this, they may fail more frequently, age faster, and require more maintenance
and earlier replacement (Chinnaswamy, 2011).

2.3.1 Quantification of the impacts of climate change

A transformer’s loading capacity is related to the exposure of its insulation to heat, the highest
temperature of which is referred to as the hot spot temperature. The ambient temperature plays an
important role in the determination of the hot spot temperature of a transformer. The hot spot
temperature increases linearly by increasing ambient temperature.

Using the guidelines stipulated in IEC 60076-7, this study will determine the hot spot temperature for
the projected future ambient temperatures and thereafter determine the relative ageing rate of the
transformer.

2.4 Impacts of Climate Change on transmission lines

Conductors of high voltage power transmission lines also are affected by overheating caused by
increased ambient temperature. As the conductors heat up, they stretch and sag. A sagging line may
contact foliage and create a circuit fault to ground. Control equipment will then disconnect it from the
transmission system. If a conductor's temperature remains high for an extended period of time, the
strength of the conductor deteriorates and tensioned connectors may be expanded, thus resulting in
mechanical failure during the next occurrence of high wind loading. When more extreme wind gusts
occur, they could cause tower and conductor damage and more electrical faults due to line "galloping"
and trees falling across conductors (Chinnaswamy, 2011). The increase in frequency and severity of
flooding events, call for the need for KETRACO to adopt reinforced system designs and to consider
shifting more resources to emergency planning and restoration.

2.4.1 Calculation of reliability of transmission lines

The magnitude of climatic loads, their occurrence and the strength of transmission line components
can be generally described by statistical distribution functions. The distribution of yearly maximum
wind velocities is usually described by the Gumbel Type I distribution whereas the strengths of
transmission line components generally follow normal or log-normal distribution.

When statistical parameters of load and strength are known, it is possible to calculate or estimate the
yearly reliability or probability of survival through analytical models or approximate methods using
guidelines stipulated in IEC 60836.

2.5 Climate models

Climate models are mathematical models constructed to study global/regional climate processes and
to create projections of possible future climates. The knowledge gained can contribute to policy
decisions regarding climate change and facilitate preparations for future climate changes.

2.5.1 Global vs Regional Climate Models

Climate models can be global or regional.

In general, global climate models show climate trends on a large scale and are useful for understanding
the consequences of human actions across the whole world. For example, when the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change evaluates the actions needed to meet the worldwide
climate targets set in the Paris Agreement, they use data from global climate models (MIT).

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On the other hand, regional climate models zoom in on specific areas and are better suited to studying
how climate change affects things important to us, like agriculture, diseases, and specific ecosystems,
and for making plans to adapt to future climate change (MIT).

2.5.2 Regional Climate Model system (RegCM)

The Regional Climate Model system RegCM, originally developed at the National Centre for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is maintained in the Earth System Physics (ESP) section of the ICTP. The
first version of the model, RegCM1, was developed in 1989 and since then it has undergone major
updates in 1993 (RegCM2), 1999 (RegCM2.5), 2006 (RegCM3) and most recently 2010 (RegCM4)
(ICTP).

The model to be used in this study is the RegCM4. The model is flexible, portable, and easy to use. It
can be applied to any region of the World, with grid spacing of up to about 10 km (hydrostatic limit),
and for a wide range of studies, from process studies to paleoclimate and future climate simulation.

2.6 Research methodology

1. Collect historical climate data to establish a baseline for Kenya’s climate and determine
variables for initial conditions.
2. Determine variables to represent subsequent changes in climate and forecast results.
3. Test the model using hindcasting. If the model accurately predicts past events that we know
happened, then it should be pretty good at predicting the future, too.
4. Estimate the loss of performance and longevity of KETRACO’s physical infrastructure i.e.,
pylons, conductors, and transformers using procedures stipulated in IEC 60836 and IEC 60076-
7 respectively.

3 References
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