Kenya Is Poised to Become the “Singapore of Africa”

Introduction
Kenya is a prosperous country in sub-Saharan Africa due to its economic and political
development. With Africa expected to make up one-third of the world's population by
2050, international organizations see the need to do business in Africa. But some
major African countries have faced serious problems recently. Kenya has an extensive
coastline on the Indian Ocean, easy links with China and India, and many trade and
investment opportunities. Kenya also has a good story with more than 80% renewable
energy and a good climate suitable for further expansion of solar power.However,
Kenya suffers from the effects of foreign direct investment, corruption, limited access
and political instability.

Review
Great to see esteemed economist Tyler Cowen weighing in on the most strategically
important yet under focused area of the world for the coming decades, which is Sub
Saharan Africa. While he has emphasized a number of important characteristics in his
analysis ranging from solid economic growth, stable political institutions, expanding
population, and coastline on the Indian Ocean (critical for accessing the industrializing
nations of South & Southeast Asia plus resources of the Gulf), I however think he has
slightly missed the mark in identifying the highest expected value growth economy in
Sub Saharan Africa while also not considering critically important factors around
current fiscal environments and political economies. Kenya is certainly high potential
and deserves to be near the top of the list, but the clear winner when looking across all
these criteria is Tanzania. Tanzania's strong diversified economic growth, low level of
indebtedness, and expanding population under the effective governance of President
Hassan make Tanzania the indisputable sleeping giant of the continent. As Tanzania's
economy is forecasted to overtake Kenya's within the decade.

On the other hand, Kenya is not Africa's benchmark for competent and incorruptible
government. Its founding mocked those who did not use their office to help
themselves. Kenya suffered negative shocks to food and energy prices due to illegal
importation of food items and political control of the energy sector. The level of
corruption and self-dealing surrounding these two drivers of any economy is
embedded in Kenya's DNA. This helps to explain why major infrastructure projects
come in massively over budget despite often being of poor quality. Kenya's geographic
advantages have been whittled away by a succession of corrupt governments.

Conclusion
Economist Tyler Cowen misses the mark in identifying Kenya as the highest expected
value growth economy in Sub Saharan Africa. Tanzania is the clear winner when
looking across all these criteria. Kenya suffered negative shocks to food and energy
prices due to illegal importation of food items and political control of the energy sector.
This helps to explain why major infrastructure projects come in massively over budget
despite often being of poor quality.