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Lecture 5
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Instructors
Prof.LOGO
Alberto Mokak Teguia
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Answer: CAPM
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Demand and supply in the market determine the price of risk, i.e.,
expected returns of assets
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
There are multiple publicly traded risky assets and one risk-free
asset
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
1. All investors hold the same portfolio of risky assets - tangent port-
folio.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Tangent Portfolio
Since all investors have the same holding period, care only about
mean and variance, and use the same information, then they
should arrive to the same optimal portfolio of risky assets.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
If investors are almost risk neutral, the market risk premium E[RM ]−
Rf would be close to zero.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
E[RM ] − Rf
⇒ λ=
Var [RM ]
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
E[Ri ] − Rf = βi (E[RM ] − Rf )
where
Cov [Ri , RM ]
βi =
Var [RM ]
1 Willam Sharpe received the Nobel Prize in 1990 for his development of the CAPM.
Here are his comments from a 1998 interview with Jonathan Burton: “Revisiting the
Capital Asset Pricing Model,” Dow Jones Asset Manager (May/June 1998): 20–28.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Slope of the CML is the market’s risk premium per unit of standard
deviation (market price of risk)
Slope on the CML is proportional to the average risk aversion of
investors in the economy
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
The SML
The CML
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Beta
The beta on the market portfolio is equal to one, i.e., βM = 1.
β > 1 means that the asset is more risky than the market portfolio
and has a higher expected return.
β < 1 means that the asset is less risky than the market portfolio
and has a lower expected return.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
β for Portfolios
The CAPM equation applies not just to individual assets but also
to portfolios:
E[Ri ] − Rf = βi (E[RM ] − Rf ) ⇒
wi (E[Ri ] − Rf ) = wi βi (E[RM ] − Rf ) ⇒
XN
E[Rp ] − Rf = wi (E[Ri ] − Rf )
i=1
X
N
= wi βi (E[RM ] − Rf )
i=1
E[Rp ] − Rf = βp (E[RM ] − Rf )
where
XN
βp = wi β i
i=1
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Method 2: Find portfolio beta and then use the CAPM equation
for the portfolio.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Alpha
αi = (E[Ri ] − Rf ) − βi (E[RM ] − Rf )
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Alpha: Example
Suppose that E[RM ] = 20%, Rf = 1%, βi = 1.3, E[Ri ] = 35%.
According to the CAPM, the asset’s expected excess return is:
1.3 × (20% − 1%) = 24.7%
Therefore, αi = 9.3%
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Problem #1:
A share of stock A sells now for $60 and it will pay a dividend of
$4 at the end of year. The beta of the stock is 1.2.
Assuming that the CAPM holds, what do investors expect the ex-
dividend price of the stock to be at the end of year?
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Solution:
E[RA ] = Rf + βA (E[RM ] − Rf )
= 0.05 + 1.2 × (0.13 − 0.05) = 0.146
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Solution continued:
If the expected price at the end of the year is $68, then the expected
return is
68 + 4 − 60 12
E[RA ] = = = 0.20.
60 60
Therefore, the alpha of stock A is
αA = (E[RA ] − Rf ) − βA (E[RM ] − Rf )
= (0.20 − 0.05) − 1.2 × (0.13 − 0.05) = 5.4%
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Problem #2:
Consider two stocks: one aggressive (A) and one defensive (D).
In bad times, the expected market return is 3%, the expected re-
turn on A is 1%, and the expected return on D is 3.8%.
If the CAPM holds, what are the betas of stocks A and D (assum-
ing they are constant across cycles)?
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Solution:
Stock A:
E[RA ] − Rf = βA (E[RM ] − Rf )
0.30 = βA × 0.15 ⇒ βA = 2
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Solution continued:
Stock D:
E[RD ] − Rf = βD (E[RM ] − Rf )
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Security Analysis
– Testing the efficient market hypothesis.
– Identify mispriced securities
– Positive alpha suggests the asset is underpriced
– Negative alpha suggests the asset is overpriced
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Linear Regression
Consider two random variables X and Y .
Fact: To capture the relationship between X and Y , we can write
Y = α + βX + ϵ
Equation
Y = α + βX + ϵ
is the (linear) regression equation.
Mechanism:
– α and β are given.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Regression Estimation
Regression:
– We consider the scatterplot of X vs. Y
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
A Scatterplot
Scatterplot and Best Line Fitting the Data
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Y
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
X
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
CAPM Regression
When using regression analysis to test the CAPM, we assume
that
– X is excess return of market portfolio, RM − Rf ,
Regression equation is
Ri − Rf = αi + βi (RM − Rf ) + ϵi .
Asset Characteristics
Ri − Rf = αi + βi (RM − Rf ) + ϵi
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Regression Output
Coefficient Interpretation
Estimate of α, denoted by α̂, also called Ab- Measure attractiveness of a firm,
normal return which should be 0 if CAPM holds.
Standard error of α̂ (measure of precision of How confident you are in the esti-
α̂), denoted by sα̂ mate of α.
Estimate of β, denoted by β̂ The usual interpretation of β:
Cov [Ri , RM ]
β̂i =
Var [RM ]
Standard error of β̂ (measure of precision of How confident you are in the esti-
β̂), denoted by sβ̂ mate of β
How well future asset returns are
Explained Variation likely to be predicted by the market
R-Square:R 2 = returns.
Total Variation
Var [βX ]
=
Var [βX ] + Var [ϵ]
β 2 Var [X ]
= .
β 2 Var [X ]+ σ[ϵ]2
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Regression Example
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
R-Square 0.209
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
E(Ri ) − Rf = βi (E(RM ) − Rf )
Testable Implications:
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
– The slope of the SML line is smaller than market risk premium.
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Multifactor models
– Two-factor model
Arbitrage-based models
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Multifactor Models
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
The pension fund may prefer stocks that have small beta with re-
spect to interest rates (holding all else equal).
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Commonly-used Factors
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
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COMM371/COEC371 – Investment Theory
Smart-Beta ETFs
Source: etf.com
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