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CH : nghin cu phng php hi quy v ng dng d bo
chi ph sn xut ca doanh nghip
Sinh vin thc hin :
Th Loan
Lp :
Vn i
Li ni u
Ngy nay, phn tch v d bo kinh t l nhu cu khng th thiu c
ca mi hot ng kinh t-x hi, khoa hc-k thut.c rt nhiu phng
php phn tch v d bo kinh t nh phng php chuyn gia, phng php
hi quy, phng php da vo dy s thi gian,v.v
Khi cng ngh ngy cng pht trin, n gn lin vi cuc sng con
ngi mi lnh vc, mi ngnh ngh. c bit trong lnh vc kinh t c rt
nhiu ng dng cng ngh thng tin. S ra i ca nhng phn mm gip
ch rt nhiu cho vic qun l, phn tch, d bo kinh t ca doanh nghip
nh access, c++, sql, visual basic 6.0, v.vnhng visual basic 6.0 c th coi
l mt cng c d hc nht.
V vy trong t thc tp ny em chn ti " nghin cu phng
php hi quy v ng dng d bo chi ph sn xut ca doanh nghip ". Vi
mc ch n li nhng kin thc hc, nhng kin thc lp trnh v xy
dng c chng trnh ng dng cho doanh nghip.
Ni dung nghin cu gm:
CHNG1:TNG QUAN V TI
1.1 khi nim
D bo l mt khoa hc v ngh thut tin on nhng s vic s xy ra
trong tng lai, trn c s phn tch khao hc v cc d liu thu thp
c.khi tin hnh d bo ta cn c vo vic thu thp, x l s liu trong
qu kh v hin ti xc nh xu hng vn ng ca cc hin tng trong
tng lai nh vo mt s m hnh ton hc.
D bo c th l mt d on mang tnh ch quan hoc trc gic v tng
lai nhng cho d bo c chnh xc hn, ngi ta c loi tr nhng tnh
ch quan ca ngi lm d bo.
1.2. ngha v vai tr ca phn tch v d bo trong qu trnh ra quyt
nh kinh doanh
* ngha
Dng d bo cc mc tng lai ca hin tng, qua gip
cc nh qun tr doanh nghip ch ng ra cc k hoch v cc quyt
nh cn thit cn thit phc v cho qu trnh sn xut kinh doanh, u t,
qung b quy m sn xut. knh phn phi sn phm, ngun cung cp ti
chnh v chun b y cho s pht trin trong thi gian ti.
* Vai tr
To ra li th cnh tranh.
(1)
Trong :
Y: tng chi ph pht sinh trong k;
X: khi lng sn phm tiu th;
a: tng chi ph bt bin;
b: tng chi ph kh bin n v sn phm;
bX: tng chi ph kh bin.
c nhiu phng php thng k tnh a, b nh: phng php cc tr,
phng php bnh phng nh nht.
* cc h s a, b c xc nh bng phng php bnh phng nh
nht:
(y - x )2=min
(2)
xy = a x + b x 2
y = na + b x
Stt
Lao ng (ngi)
Gi tr sn xut (t
ng)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
60
78
90
115
126
169
198
226
250
300
x , y , xy , x
tm a, b cn tnh
X
60
78
90
115
126
169
198
226
250
300
x=
1612
9,25
8,73
10,62
13,64
10,93
14,31
22,10
19,17
25,20
27,50
y
9,25
8,73
10,62
13,64
10,93
14,31
22,10
19,17
25,20
27,50
xy
555,00
680,94
955,80
1568,60
1377,18
2418,39
4375,80
4332,42
6300,00
8250,00
y = 161, 45 xy =3081
4,13
Y2
85,5625
112,7844
186,0496
119,4649
204,7761
488,4100
367,4889
635,0400
756,2500
= 3032, 039
xy x* y
x2
a= y - bx
2x= x 2 - ( x )2
1.4.2. H s tng quan
H s tng quan (r) l mt ch s thng k o lng mi lin h tng
quan gia hai bin s. N dc s dng nh gi mc cht ch ca
mi lin h tng quan. H s tng quan c gi tr t -1 n 1.
7
ME =
(A F )
t
MAE =
A F
t
MPE =
[ ( A F ) / A ] x100%
t
1.5.4. Phn trm sai s tuyt i trung bnh (Mean absolute percentage
error):
- Cng thc tnh :
(A F ) / A
MAPE =
t
x100%
(A F )
MSE =
t
1.5.6 Sai s bnh phng trung bnh chun (Root mean squared error ):
- Cng thc tnh :
RMSE = MSE
(A F )
( A 8 A )
U=
t 1
thc thi.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
10
12
2.2.5 hp cng c
Hp cng c cha cc iu khin t ln Form
13
17
b) For...Next
Bit trc s ln lp. Ta dng bin m tng dn hoc gim dn trong
vng lp.
For <bin m> = <im u> To <im cui> [Step <bc nhy>]
<Khi lnh>
Next [<Bin m>]
Bin m, im u, im cui v bc nhy l nhng gi tr s.
Bc nhy c th l m hoc dng. Nu bc nhy l dng, im u
phi nh hn hoc bng im cui, nu bc nhy l m th ngc li.
c) For Each...Next
Tng t vng lp For... Next, nhng n lp khi lnh theo s phn t
ca mt tp cc i tng hay mt mng thay v theo s ln lp xc nh.
Vng lp ny tin li khi ta khng bit chnh xc bao nhiu phn t trong tp
hp.
For Each <phn t> In <Nhm>
<khi lnh>
Next <phn t>
d) Vng lp While...Wend
Tng t vng lp Do...While, nhng ta khing th thot vng lp bng
lnh Exit. V vy, vng lp kiu ny ch thot khi biu thc iu kin sai.
While <iu kin>
<khi lnh>
Wend
e) Cu lnh GoTo
c dng cho by li.
On Error Goto ErrorHandler
Khi c li, chng trnh s nhy n nhn ErrorHandler v thi hnh lnh
18
Doanh thu
Chi ph
1995
26
1996
38
12
1997
34
13
1998
40
15
1999
28
13
2000
51
29
2001
44
22
2002
50
21
2003
54
30
2004
45
26
2005
40
23
2006
42
25
2007
35
15
2008
50
27
20
21
Hnh 3.3: kt qu d bo
22
23
24
NHN XT V
DN
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25
nm 2010
26
thng
nm 2010
27
28