Migration Models

Modelling of any process may involve two stages namely

(1) Theoretical statement about the process and
(2) Translation of the statement into mathematical model.
The theories of migration attempt to
made to list out in-fact the factors
explain the reasons of migration. At this stage, an
responsible for a person's movement. In the attempt is
researchers try parameterize the process so that it can have wider
to second stage
planning. Following are the theories which have emerged from various responsibility and help in
studies on migration.
Ravenstein's Law of Migration.(1885)
(ii) Zipfs Gravity Model.
(ii) Lee's Theory of Migration.(Concept of Pull and Push)
(iv) Todaro's model
(v) Duffer's Model(Intervening Opportunities Model)
(vi) L-F-R Model of
Development theory
(vii) Sjaastad Human Investment Theory
(vii) Cost-Benefit model
(ix) Mover-stayer model of
Ravenstein's Law of Migration. Migration
E.G.Ravenstein was the first to develop a theoretical basis to human
in his book "The Laws migration the year 1885.
of Migration". He is belongs to England, by generalised the birth place data
produced the law related to inter-country migration. Whose law is holds
based upon three factors Reasons good even today. The law is
is the major points of the law. (motivation), Distance and Migrant Characteristics. The following
(a) Migrations move from areas of low economic
opportunity.
opportunity to those of higher
economic
b) Migration proceeds step by step.
(c) The decision to move towards and the selection of destination are
influenced distance, with
migrants from the rural areas often showing a tendency to move first towardsby
nearby towns
and then large cities.
(d) Migration accelerates with development of the means of
expansion of trade and Industries. transport and communication and
e) Each stream of rural-urban migration produces a counter-stream of urban-rural
although the former tends to dominate the latter. migration,
t) The urban residents are less migratory than the rural.
(g) Female migrate more frequently than male within the country of birth, but males frequently
venture abroad.
(h) Most of the migrant are adults but families rarely migrate out of their country of birth.
1) Large towns grow more Migration than by natural increase.
Zipfs Gravity Model
The model was developed by Jhon O. Stewart. The
treat human
theory is labelled as gravitational as they
beings and their movement as individuals.
a) It is inspired from Newton's Law of Gravity
b) It says that variations in the size of destinations will influence the strength of their attractions
c)ThisModel obeys "distance Law"
According to this model people mpve from one place to other as if drawn by the gravitational force
that diminish with distance, the number of persons who moved between
any two areas is directly
proportional to the product of the two populations and inversely proportional to the distance between
them.

Migration Index(M/) =Ko

K=proportionality Constant.
Po population at place of Origin.
Pa population at place of destination.
d= the distance between Origin to Destination.
This is a simple model.Despite the simplicity of the model is several objections have found it
unsatisfactory. This model is unrealistic as it is symmetrical, assuming equal flow in both directions.
ee's Theory of Migration. to this model decision to
Lee's theory is the general form of Ravenstein law of migration. According
nieration is determined but the following factors
migra
there are several factors which
() Factor associated with the area of origin:- In each
area

motivate migration to outside area.

destination
More attractive forces the
at
(i) Factor associated with the area of destination:- the destination
influence of repulsive force at
increase grant selectivity, conversely stronger forces have been a nation's
reduces selectivity. Generally the places with the most attractive
Metropolitan areas should also have the highest proportion of selectivity migrants
rises migrant selectivity.
intervening obstacles
i1) Intervening obstacles:- 1Inereased difficuity of environment, climate factors,
The most important intervening obstacles are economic, political, due to
reduced in nodern times
ana
transportation. These have being considerably
distance
technology advanced on the
individual behaviour and
Personal factors:- This model focuses attention
on
(IV)
perceptions and decision making process of the migrant.
Todaro's model Rural-Urban Migration. and employment
of perceived income
MIChael P.1odaro(1976) has put forward the theory
remain the same prospects of higher income in the
to explain migration. Other thirgs features t his
PPLes
areas promote migration toward the cities. This is
how he sums up four major
urban
model. of relative benefits
economic considerations
(i) MIgration is stimulated primary by rational
and costs, most financial, but also physiological.
urban labourer can successfully
the probability what an
(ü) Kural urban migration depends on
well as on the urban-rural
income differential. Migration
is
modern sector job as
nnd a than actual earnings.
then a response to expected rather related to the perceived rural-urban
ii) of rural-urban migration is directly Costs of moving reduce
The probability probability of obtaining a job
in tne city.
differential and the
income
the probability of migration but also
(iv) Migration rate in excess of urban job opportunity
growth rate and not only possible
income
urban-rural expected
rational and probable in the face of continued positivetherefore inevitable out-comes of the
differentials. High rates of urban unemployment
are
urban and rural most areas of
serious imbalance of economic opportunities between
underdeveloped countries.
Stouffer's Model Stouffer's model
Samuel Andrew Stouffer. According to
Zipfs gravity model was modified by
factor at their place of destination while they are
a) Migrant are attracted by a set of positive
repulsed by negative factors in their place cf origin. are to overcome intervening
difficulties.
b) The greater the net attractions the more likely migrantdistance between the two places as also
c)The degree of migration would be inversely related to
the opportunities in the two
the extent of intervening opportunities but directly related to
places.
d) To moves toward the attractive force, migrants must overcome a series of intervening
obstacles. Intervening obstacles include cost a lack of transport, lack of integration with the
national road system, closer acceptable destination, limited information about potential
destination, no urban kin or other contacts to assist the migrant upon arrival, no linkage to
urban area through governmental services and familial constraints on the movement of a
household member.
e) Personal characteristics of the potential migrant affeet his ability to overcome intervening
obstacles.
I n general migrants tend to be positively selected with respect to youth, education and
household income relative to non-migrants in the place of origin.
g) Over time it is assume that there would be less difference between sending and receiving areas,
more kin in the place of destination, and greater ease of access, thereby reducing intervening
obstacles and resulting in less selectivity of migrants. The mathematical form of the
intervening opportunities competing migrant model for interstale migrant is given as

yC
B
y-Gross interstate migration.
X=Scale factor measures as the product of total number of in-migrants to destination and total
number of out-migrants from origin during specified period.
X Total intervening opportunities measured as totai in-migration within a circle whose diameter is
Xe=Total competing migrants measured as total out-migration within a circde cantered at destination
whose radius is Xd.
Where K, A, B andC are unknown parameters to be estimated,
L-F-R Model of Development theory
This models proposed by Lewis (1954) and extended by Rains and Fei(1961). The combined
theory is known as L-F-R model. The model is based on a concept of dual economy comprising a
subsistence's agriculture sector characterized by full employment where "Capitalist reinvest ful
amount of their profit. Amigration is equilibrating mechanism which through transfer oflabour from
the labour surplus sector tothelabour-defñicit sector brings about the equality betweentwo sector
This model also considers the wage differentials in two sectors as one of the important factors. Their
has not been
assumptuon that marginal productivity of labour is zero in subsistances however
sector

confirmed empirically. Further, migration is not induced solely by employment or under

employment.
Sjaastad Human Investment Theory
decision involving costs and returns
nis theory treats the decision to migrate as investment
distributed over time (Sjaastad 1962) costs (noney and non-money) includes the following
components.
) Cost of transport
i) Disposal of movable and immovable property
ii) Wages foregone while in transit.
(v) Retraining for the new job (if necessary)
(vi) Leaving familiar surroundings.
(vii) Leaving languages and culture (sometime)
(vii) Exposure to new dietary habits and social customs.
On the other hand returns may include.
(i) Psychic benefit as change of location (non-money)
(ii) More net life span incomes
Sjaastad model does not consider the unemployment rate at the place of destination. Further it woula
be difficult to estimate non-money and costs in real situation.