PROYECCION DE DEMANDA Y ENERGÍA

Año periodo poblacion Abon Dom Abon Com E Dom kwh E Com kwh E neta kwh
2020 0 6000
2021 1 6120 1530 255 2,434,039 765,000 3,199,039
2022 2 6242 1561 260 2,501,768 780,300 3,282,068
2023 3 6367 1592 265 2,571,380 795,906 3,367,286
2024 4 6495 1624 271 2,642,930 811,824 3,454,754
2025 5 6624 1656 276 2,716,470 828,061 3,544,531
2026 6 6757 1689 282 2,792,057 844,622 3,636,679
2027 7 6892 1723 287 2,869,747 861,514 3,731,262
2028 8 7030 1757 293 2,949,599 878,745 3,828,344
2029 9 7171 1793 299 3,031,673 896,319 3,927,992
2030 10 7314 1828 305 3,116,030 914,246 4,030,276
2031 11 7460 1865 311 3,202,735 932,531 4,135,266
2032 12 7609 1902 317 3,291,852 951,181 4,243,034
2033 13 7762 1940 323 3,383,449 970,205 4,353,654
2034 14 7917 1979 330 3,477,595 989,609 4,467,204
2035 15 8075 2019 336 3,574,361 1,009,401 4,583,762
2036 16 8237 2059 343 3,673,819 1,029,589 4,703,408
2037 17 8401 2100 350 3,776,044 1,050,181 4,826,225
2038 18 8569 2142 357 3,881,114 1,071,185 4,952,299
2039 19 8741 2185 364 3,989,107 1,092,608 5,081,716
2040 20 8916 2229 371 4,100,106 1,114,461 5,214,566
VALOR ACTUAL NETO (VAN) ALTERNATIVA HIDROELECTRICA
Año periodo MD kw E total E act Cost Inv CO y M Cost Depre
2020 0 0 0 0 2,175,335 0 0
2021 1 987 3,454,963 3,290,441 0 21,753 42,782
2022 2 998 3,544,633 3,215,087 0 22,080 42,782
2023 3 1009 3,636,669 3,141,492 0 22,411 42,782
2024 4 1019 3,731,134 3,069,613 0 22,747 42,782
2025 5 1031 3,828,093 2,999,411 0 23,088 42,782
2026 6 1042 3,927,613 2,930,846 0 23,435 42,782
2027 7 1053 4,029,762 2,863,877 0 23,786 42,782
2028 8 1064 4,134,611 2,798,468 0 24,143 42,782
2029 9 1076 4,242,232 2,734,580 0 24,505 42,782
2030 10 1088 4,352,698 2,672,179 0 24,873 42,782
2031 11 1100 4,466,087 2,611,229 0 25,246 42782
2032 12 1111 4,582,476 2,551,694 0 25,624 42782
2033 13 1124 4,701,947 2,493,543 0 26,009 42782
2034 14 1136 4,824,581 2,436,741 0 26,399 42782
2035 15 1148 4,950,463 2,381,257 0 26,795 42782
2036 16 1161 5,079,681 2,327,060 0 27,197 42782
2037 17 1174 5,212,323 2,274,119 0 27,605 42782
2038 18 1186 5,348,482 2,222,405 0 28,019 42782
2039 19 1199 5,488,253 2,171,888 0 28,439 42782
2040 20 1213 5,631,732 2,122,540 0 28,866 42782
 Energia total Actualizada 53,308,470 Costo total Actualizado Alt Hidroe

VALOR ACTUAL NETO (VAN) ALTERNATIVA TERMICA

Año periodo MD kw E total E act Cost Inv CO y M Cost Depre
2020 0 870,134
2021 1 987 3,454,963 3,290,441 0 8,701 17,113
2022 2 998 3,544,633 3,215,087 0 8,832 17,113
2023 3 1009 3,636,669 3,141,492 0 8,964 17,113
2024 4 1019 3,731,134 3,069,613 0 9,099 17,113
2025 5 1031 3,828,093 2,999,411 0 9,235 17,113
2026 6 1042 3,927,613 2,930,846 0 9,374 17,113
2027 7 1053 4,029,762 2,863,877 0 9,514 17,113
2028 8 1064 4,134,611 2,798,468 0 9,657 17,113
2029 9 1076 4,242,232 2,734,580 0 9,802 17,113
2030 10 1088 4,352,698 2,672,179 0 9,949 17,113
2031 11 1100 4,466,087 2,611,229 0 10,098 17,113
2032 12 1111 4,582,476 2,551,694 0 10,250 17,113
2033 13 1124 4,701,947 2,493,543 0 10,403 17,113
2034 14 1136 4,824,581 2,436,741 0 10,560 17,113
2035 15 1148 4,950,463 2,381,257 0 10,718 17,113
2036 16 1161 5,079,681 2,327,060 0 10,879 17,113
2037 17 1174 5,212,323 2,274,119 0 11,042 17,113
2038 18 1186 5,348,482 2,222,405 0 11,208 17,113
2039 19 1199 5,488,253 2,171,888 0 11,376 17,113
2040 20 1213 5,631,732 2,122,540 0 11,546 17,113

Energia Tot Actualizada 53,308,470 Costo total Actualizado Alt térmic

Relación entre precios de alternativas precio termica 0.214

precio hidroelec 0.053

Rel 4.02
ANDA Y ENERGÍA
FSA Ener
E pérd E total kwh HU MD kw 5% E act kwh

255,923 3,454,963 3500 987 0.952 3,290,441

262,565 3,544,633 3553 998 0.907 3,215,087
269,383 3,636,669 3606 1009 0.864 3,141,492
276,380 3,731,134 3660 1019 0.823 3,069,613
283,562 3,828,093 3715 1031 0.784 2,999,411
290,934 3,927,613 3770 1042 0.746 2,930,846
298,501 4,029,762 3827 1053 0.711 2,863,877
306,267 4,134,611 3884 1064 0.677 2,798,468
314,239 4,242,232 3943 1076 0.645 2,734,580
322,422 4,352,698 4002 1088 0.614 2,672,179
330,821 4,466,087 4062 1100 0.585 2,611,229
339,443 4,582,476 4123 1111 0.557 2,551,694
348,292 4,701,947 4185 1124 0.530 2,493,543
357,376 4,824,581 4247 1136 0.505 2,436,741
366,701 4,950,463 4311 1148 0.481 2,381,257
376,273 5,079,681 4376 1161 0.458 2,327,060
386,098 5,212,323 4441 1174 0.436 2,274,119
396,184 5,348,482 4508 1186 0.416 2,222,405
406,537 5,488,253 4576 1199 0.396 2,171,888
417,165 5,631,732 4644 1213 0.377 2,122,540
TERNATIVA HIDROELECTRICA
C anual FSA (8%) Cost Act Cost min kwh usd
0 2,175,335 0.053
64,536 0.926 59,755
64,862 0.857 55,609
65,193 0.794 51,752
65,529 0.735 48,166
65,870 0.681 44,830
66,217 0.630 41,728
66,568 0.583 38,842
66,925 0.540 36,158
67,287 0.500 33,660
67,655 0.463 31,337
68,028 0.429 29,176
68,407 0.397 27,165
68,791 0.368 25,294
69,181 0.340 23,553
69,577 0.315 21,934
69,979 0.292 20,426
70,387 0.270 19,023
70,801 0.250 17,718
71,221 0.232 16,503
71,648 0.215 15,372
osto total Actualizado Alt Hidroelectric 2,833,337

ALTERNATIVA TERMICA
C comb C anual FSA (8%) Cost Act $ / kwh
870,134 0.214
863,741 889,555 0.926 823,662
886,158 912,103 0.857 781,981
909,167 935,245 0.794 742,427
932,784 958,995 0.735 704,890
957,023 983,372 0.681 669,266
981,903 1,008,390 0.630 635,457
1,007,441 1,034,068 0.583 603,369
1,033,653 1,060,423 0.540 572,913
1,060,558 1,087,473 0.500 544,007
1,088,175 1,115,236 0.463 516,570
1,116,522 1,143,733 0.429 490,527
1,145,619 1,172,982 0.397 465,807
1,175,487 1,203,003 0.368 442,342
1,206,145 1,233,818 0.340 420,067
1,237,616 1,265,447 0.315 398,922
1,269,920 1,297,912 0.292 378,848
1,303,081 1,331,236 0.270 359,792
1,337,121 1,365,441 0.250 341,700
1,372,063 1,400,552 0.232 324,525
1,407,933 1,436,592 0.215 308,218

osto total Actualizado Alt térmica 11,395,425