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Week 8
Stock Valuation
Learning objectives
• Understand how stock prices depend on future dividends and
dividend growth
• Be able to compute stock prices using the Dividend Growth
Model (also called the Dividend Discount Model)
• Be able to compute a stock’s expected return from DGM/DDM
• Be able to compute stock prices using the Corporate Valuation
Model
• Be able to compute stock prices using Relative Valuation (also
called the Multiples Approach) (not examinable)
• Understand how securities are sold to the public and the role of
investment bankers (not examinable)
• Know what initial public offerings and rights issues are (not
examinable) 2
Ways that Stockholders Receive Cash Return
3
Dividends
• Dividends are cash disbursements to shareholders
– Firms are not required to pay dividends to their shareholders
(Dividends are declared at the discretion of the Board of
Directors).
– Dividends are not a liability of the firm until a dividend has been
declared by the Board.
5
Determinants of Intrinsic Value
• The primary determinants of the intrinsic value of an asset
are:
– ______ of the expected future cash flows.
– ________ of the expected future cash flows.
– The Required rate of return.
• Note that the intrinsic value of an asset can be, and often
is, different for each investor since each investor can have
different expectations (that’s what makes markets work).
6
Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price/Value
Intrinsic value: an estimate of a stock’s “true” value based on accurate
risk & return data (amount, timing & riskiness of cash flows)
– An “estimated” value, not a precise objectively known measure
– Often referred to as an estimate of ‘fundamental value’
The terms “Market price/value” and “Intrinsic value” are oftentimes used
interchangeably, but that may not be correct:
– Market prices/values are observable
– Intrinsic values are unobservable and can only be estimated
7
Stock Value: 1-Period Example
• Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of
Moore Oil, Inc. and you expect it to pay a $2 dividend
in 1 year’s time and you believe that you can sell the
stock for $14 at that time.
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Stock Value: 1-Period Example
Using a Time-Line:
0 1 2 3
20%
𝐶𝐹" $16
Intrinsic Value 𝑃! = " = " = $𝟏𝟑. 𝟑𝟑
(1 + 𝑟) (1 + 20%)
9
Stock Value: 1-Period Example
Using a Financial Calculator:
INPUTS 1 20 0 16
N I/Y PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -13.33
Using Excel:
10
Stock Value: 2-Period Example
• Now what if you decide to hold the stock for 2 years?
• In addition to the dividend in 1 year’s time, you expect a
dividend of $2.10 and a stock price of $14.70 at the end of
year 2. Now, what is the intrinsic value of the stock?
11
Stock Value: 2-Period Example
Using a Time-Line:
0 1 2 3
20%
D1=$2 D2=$2.10
+
P2=$14.70
CF1=$2 CF2=$16.80
Find PV
𝐶𝐹" 𝐶𝐹#
Intrinsic Value 𝑃! = " +
(1 + 𝑟) (1 + 𝑟)#
$2 $16.80
= " + # = $𝟏𝟑. 𝟑𝟑
(1 + 20%) (1 + 20%) 12
Stock Value: 2-Period Example
INPUTS 1 20 0 2
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -1.67
INPUTS 2 20 0 16.80
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -11.67
13
Stock Value: 2-Period Example
Using a Financial Calculator – Method 2
1 2
15
Stock Value: 3-Period Example
• Finally, what if you decide to hold the same stock for three
periods?
• In addition to the dividends at the end of years 1 and 2, you
expect to receive a dividend of $2.205 at the end of year 3
and a stock price of $15.435 at the end of year 3. Now, what
is the intrinsic value of the stock?
16
Stock Value: 3-Period Example
Using a Time-Line:
0 1 2 3
20%
INPUTS 1 20 0 2
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -1.67
INPUTS 2 20 0 2.10
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -1.46
INPUTS 3 20 0 17.64
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -10.21
1 2
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Stock Value: Developing The Model
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Dividend Growth Model (DGM)
Estimating Dividends: Simplifying Cases
1. Constant Dividend (Zero-Growth Dividend)
– The firm will pay a constant dividend forever
– Growth rate of dividend, g, is 0%.
23
Scenario 1: Firm Pays Constant Dividends
If constant dividends are expected at regular intervals forever,
then this is like preferred stock and is valued as a _________:
𝐶𝐹1 𝐷1
𝑃𝑉 = 𝑃+ =
𝑟 𝑟,
24
Constant Dividend Example
Suppose a stock is expected to pay a $2.50 dividend
every year and the required return is 10%.
What is the price of the stock?
$2.50
𝑃+ = = $𝟐𝟓. 𝟎𝟎
10%
25
Features of Preferred Stock
• Preferred stock has precedence over common stock in the
payment of dividends and in liquidation. Its dividend is usually
fixed and the stock is often without voting rights.
• Preferred Dividends
– Stated dividend must be paid before dividends can be paid to
common stockholders
– Not a liability of the firm and can be deferred indefinitely
– Most are cumulative – any missed preferred dividends have
to be paid before common dividends can be paid. However,
unpaid preferred dividends are not debts of the firm.
26
Return of Preferred Stock
If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50,
what is the preferred stock’s required return?
𝐷1 𝐷1
𝑃! = 𝑟" =
𝑟" 𝑃!
$5
=
$50
= 10%
27
Scenario 2: Constant Dividend Growth
The formula for the price of the stock in this case is:
𝐷-
𝑃+ =
𝑟, − 𝑔
where
1. 𝑔 is the constant growth rate of dividends
2. 𝐷" is the dividend received at the end of year 1
• Also, 𝐷"
𝑃! = requires 𝑟' > 𝑔
𝑟' − 𝑔
If 𝑟$ ≤ 𝑔, stock price is infinite, which makes no economic sense.
Hence, we cannot use this model unless:
1. 𝑟$ > 𝑔, and
2. 𝑔 is expected to be constant forever.
29
Constant Dividend Growth – Example
Ninja Co. just paid a dividend of $2. If dividends are expected to
grow at 5% per year forever and the required return is 20%, what
is the price of Ninja Co. stock?
$2 × (1.05)
𝑃L = = $𝟏𝟒. 𝟎𝟎
20% − 5%
Note:
The use of the words “just paid” means the stockholder has already
received this cash flow. Hence it is no longer considered a future
expected dividend and will not be included in the pricing of the stock.
30
Comprehensive Example Incorporating CAPM
Let’s say we have the following information:
• Stock beta, 𝛽 = 1.2,
• Risk-free rate, 𝑟) = 7%,
• Market return, 𝑟* = 12%,
• Dividend just paid, 𝐷! = $2,
• Constant growth rate of dividends, g = 6%,
31
Comprehensive Example Incorporating CAPM
32
Comprehensive Example Incorporating CAPM
What would the stock’s price be one year from now, 𝑃"?
0 1 2 3
13% ...
D1 D2
P0 P1
𝐷% $2.12
Dividend Yield = = = 𝟕%
𝑃! $30.29
𝑃% − 𝑃! $32.10 − $30.29
Capital Gains Yield = = = 𝟔%
𝑃! $30.29
34
Comprehensive Example Incorporating CAPM
If you rearrange the model to make 𝑟$ the subject:
𝐷% 𝐷% $2.12
𝑃! = 𝑟" = +𝑔 = + 6%
𝑟" − 𝑔 𝑃! $30.29
= 7% + 6% = 𝟏𝟑%
The expected return of the stock is 13%.
36
Scenario 3: Non-Constant Growth Example
37
Scenario 3: Non-Constant Growth Example
𝑔 = 5%
Using a Time-Line:
0 1 2 3
10%
39
Example: Singapore Shares Fall On Week
After Fed Move
40
Example: Tokyo Zoo Panda Gives Birth,
Sending Shares in Retailers Surging
•Ueno Zoo panda Shin Shin gives birth to at least one cub
•Shares in nearby Chinese eatery Totenko surge as much as 38%
41
Example: Facebook parent Meta
sheds US$200 billion in stock plummet
46
Example: Corporate Value Model
You have the following information about a firm:
• Projected CFFAs (in $millions):
– Year 1: –5
– Year 2: 10
– Year 3: 20
• After year 3, the firm expects CFFA to grow at a long-run constant
growth rate gCFFA of 6%.
• The firm has $40 million of debt.
• The firm has 10 million common shares outstanding.
• The firm’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is 10%.
What is the intrinsic value of this firm’s common stock?
47
Example: Corporate Value Model
𝑔 = 6%
0 1 2 3 4 ...
10%
−5 10 550
1 Market Value of Firm = + # + $ = $𝟒𝟏𝟔. 𝟗𝟒𝐦𝐢𝐥
1.1 1.1 1.1
48
Example: Corporate Value Model
$376.94mil
= = $𝟑𝟕. 𝟔𝟗
10mil
49
Overall Summary
• Intrinsic Value ≠ Market Value
• The intrinsic value of a stock is the PV of future expected dividends
(Dividend Growth Model):
𝐷&'( 𝐷&'% 𝐷&'* 𝐷+
𝑃H& = + + + ⋯+
(1 + 𝑟) )( (1 + 𝑟) )% (1 + 𝑟) )* (1 + 𝑟) )+
• The expected return of stock is the sum of its dividend yield and its
capital gains yield. 𝑟) = 𝐷( + 𝑔
𝑃,
NOT EXAMINABLE
Valuation with Multiples
• The Multiples Method of valuation can be used to obtain a quick
idea of value when the determinants of value (CFFA, WACC, etc.)
are not so clear or readily available.
53
Valuation with Multiples: Example
Let’s say we want to 1 2
estimate the value
Firm P/E ratio
of General Motors
Ford 9.68
Company (GMC)
stock Daimler 7.37
Volkswagen 8.49
3 Average 8.51
56
How Firms Issue Securities
NOT EXAMINABLE
How Firms Issue Securities
A Firm issues Equity
(Mainly to raise funds)
General Direct
SPAC Private Rights
Cash Offer Listing, (e.g. Grab) Placement Issue
(IPO or SEO) (e.g. Spotify)
• Types of Underwriting
– Firm Commitment: issuer sells entire issue to the underwriter, who
then tries to resell it.
– Best Efforts: underwriter uses “best efforts” to sell at agreed-upon
offering price.
– Dutch Auction: Underwriter conducts an auction in which investors
bid for shares.
59
Direct Listing
• Securities are offered to the general public
• Pricing on first day depends solely on demand and supply, hence could
be more volatile than an IPO.
• Does not have the “lock-up” period that applies to IPOs. In traditional
IPOs, though not always required, companies have lock-up periods in
which existing shareholders are not allowed to sell their shares in the
public market.
60
SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company)
• Securities are offered to the general public
• The SPAC raises capital via its own IPO, has about 18–24 months to
identify and negotiate with a target company. Once details are agreed
upon (including shareholders approval), they merge within about 3–5
months. If no target company is found, the SPAC liquidates and the
IPO proceeds are returned to the shareholders.
61
62
Private Placements
63
Rights Offering
• Issue of new stock to existing shareholders on a privileged-
subscription basis.
• Firm distributes to its shareholders rights to subscribe for
additional shares at a specified price.
• Shareholders can do one of the following:
1. Exercise their rights and subscribe for the shares.
2. Sell the rights to interested investors if they do not want to
buy new shares.
3. Do nothing and let the right expire.
64