Thailand Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Bloomberg: TOP TB | Reuters: TOP.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

DBS Group Research . Equity 13 Jan 2021

BUY (Upgrade from HOLD) Bottoming refinery margins

Last Traded Price (12 Jan 2021): Bt59.00 (SET : 1,539.85)
Price Target 12-mth: Bt67.00 (14% upside) (Prev Bt51.00) Investment Thesis:
Ongoing investments. TOP’s new Clean Fuel Project (CFP) will
Analyst
increase its total capacity from 275kbd to 400kbd with higher
Duladeth BIK, CFA, FRM, CAIA +66 28577833
energy efficiency and zero fuel oil products. Its total
duladethb@th.dbs.com
investment is budgeted at c.US$5.0bn. The project is
expected to go onstream in early 2024 at the earliest.

What’s New PX spread remains under pressure. Our forecast PX spread

• Expect 4Q20F net profit to come in at Bt6.90bn, for 2021F appears to be conservative at US$200/tonne
supported by improving margins, inventory gain, gain compared with US$229/tonne in 2020. This was due to: i)
of GPSC divestment, and forex gain weaker demand for the downstream business, and ii)
• 1Q21F to be hit by rising OSP and softer chemical additional capacity coming online from China. We expect
margins more than c.4mtpa of PX and BZ capacity coming online in
1H21F.
• Bottom out refinery and aromatics margins in 2021F
• Upgrade to BUY with higher TP of Bt67 Upgrade to BUY with FY21 TP of Bt67. Our recommendation
is underpinned by i) positive petroleum demand sentiment
Price Relative
Bt Relative Index
from vaccine rollout, ii) bottoming refinery and aromatics
114.3
104.3
212 margins in 4Q20F, and iii) expectations of 4Q20F earnings to
192
94.3
84.3
172
152
mark record high in 2020, backed by declining OSP,
c.US$4bbl inventory gain, and forex gain.
74.3
132
64.3
112
54.3
44.3 92

34.3 72

Valuation:
24.3 52
Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Thai Oil PCL (LHS) Relative SET (RHS)

We applied a PBV of 1.2x (equivalent to its 5-year average)
Forecasts and Valuation to derive our TP of Bt67.
FY Dec (Btm) 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue 364,327 251,747 257,003 257,709 Where we differ:
EBITDA 17,201 1,879 20,638 21,345 We remain cautious over crude prices, refinery margin
Pre-tax Profit 7,756 (3,339) 6,742 7,450
Net Profit 6,277 (3,463) 5,599 6,173
recovery, and weakening aromatics business.
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 5,330 (10,657) 5,599 6,173
Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (46.5) nm nm 10.3 Key Risks to Our View:
EPS (Bt) 3.07 (1.7) 2.73 3.01 Lower-than-expected market GRM is the key risk factor as
EPS Pre Ex. (Bt) 2.61 (5.2) 2.74 3.03
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (46) nm nm 10 new capacity in the region will continue to put more
Diluted EPS (Bt) 3.07 (1.7) 2.73 3.01 pressure on margins. This is due to the huge incoming new
Net DPS (Bt) 1.50 0.50 1.21 1.33 capacity in the Middle East, China and India, especially for
BV Per Share (Bt) 58.8 56.6 58.1 59.8
PE (X) 19.2 nm 21.6 19.6
diesel and gasoline.
PE Pre Ex. (X) 22.6 nm 21.5 19.5
P/Cash Flow (X) 9.2 18.5 15.7 10.0 At A Glance
EV/EBITDA (X) 10.0 117.6 11.7 11.8 Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,040
Net Div Yield (%) 2.5 0.8 2.0 2.3 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 120,362 / 4,007
P/Book Value (X) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Major Shareholders (%)
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0
ROAE (%) 5.2 (2.9) 4.8 5.1 PTT 45.0
Thai NVDR 6.3
Earnings Rev (%): (48) 0 0
State Street Bank Europe Limited 3.6
Consensus EPS (Bt): (2.5) 2.20 3.50
Other Broker Recs: B: 12 S: 7 H: 9 Free Float (%) 52.0
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 25.0
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance
GIC Industry : Energy / Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
L.P.

ed: CK/ sa: xx, PY, CS

Company Update
Thai Oil PCL
WHAT’S NEW
Expect 4Q20F earnings to mark record high for 2020
4Q20F performance boosted by margin recovery, inventory
gain, and forex gain. We expect its 4Q20F earnings to mark
2020’s high with a projected net profit of Bt6,903m (vs.
4Q19’s Bt1,984m and 3Q20’s Bt715m). The improved
performance was due to i) market GRM recovery, supported
by declining crude OSP, ii) expected net inventory gain of
Bt2,077m, iii) widening aromatics margins, iii) expected gain
on GSPC’s share divestment of Bt5,500m , and iv) forex gain
of Bt2,400m.
Market gross integrated margin (GIM), excluding crude
inventory impact, is projected at US$3.7/bbl (-16% y-o-y and
+270% q-o-q).
TOP’s GRM and GIM by quarter
Source: TOP, DBSVTH
4Q20F’s key operating metrics
i) Refinery utilisation rate is expected at 100% (vs. 113%
in 4Q19 and 93% in 3Q20). On a 4Q20 basis,
JET/GO/LSFO/ULG crack spreads stood at
US$2.42/3.69/9.86/4.10 (n.a./-12%/+37%/-8% in q-o-
q). Market GRM is projected at US$0.9/bbl (vs. 4Q19’s
US$2.7/bbl and 3Q20’s US$-1.1/bbl). Refining crack
spreads inched up, supported by an increase in
domestic aviation activities in China and improving
petroleum demand on the back of vaccine rollouts.
ii) Crude premium cost, on average, has inched down q-
o-q as major oil producers such as Saudi Aramco, the
UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, cut their OSP to boost demand.
Specifically, Murban, Arab Light, and Arab Extra Light
stood at c.US$-0.37/-0.47/-0.70 per barrel respectively
(vs. 3Q20’s US$1.20/0.77/0.70 per barrel).
iii) Crude inventory impact, including an NRV loss reversal
of c.Bt200m, is expected to result in a net stock gain of
Bt2,077m.
iv) The aromatics utilisation rate is projected at 77% (vs.
73% in 4Q19 and 56% in 3Q20). Paraxylene (PX) and
benzene (BZ) spreads headed north due to rising
demand for single-use plastic such as cutlery and
medical equipment. On a 4Q20 basis, PX and BZ
margins stood at US$146/tonne (+3% q-o-q) and
US$114/tonne ( +375% q-o-q). Thus, GIM contribution
is projected at US$1.9/bbl (+137% y-o-y and +58% q-o-
q).
v) Lube base utilisation rate is projected at 90% (vs.
77% in 4Q19 and 89% in 3Q20) Despite seeing a
margin decline with the 500SN margin rising to
US473/ton (+39% q-o-q), demand for lube oil has
recovered due to easing travel restrictions whereas
TOP sold its lube products at a lower discount.
Hence, market GIM contribution is expected at
US$0.9/bbl (flat y-o-y and +12% q-o-q).
vi) Accounting GIM, including crude inventory impact, is
projected at US$6.2/bbl (+22% y-o-y and +27% q-o-
q).
vii) Extraordinary items in 4Q20F included a) forex gain
of Bt2,400m, as the THB appreciated against the
USD by c.Bt1.6 per USD, and b) gain on GPSC’s
share divestment of Bt5,500m.
1Q21F to be hit by rising crude OSP and weakening PX
spread. Despite the improving sentiment in the oil market
and crack spread recovery due to vaccine rollouts, we
expect overall refinery margin (market GRM) to be little
changed vs. 4Q20F. However, we think market GRM will be
dampened by i) rising fuel loss as crude prices rise, and ii)
an increase in crude OSP by c.US$1.2/bbl q-o-q.
On a 1Q-to-date basis, JET/GO/LSFO/ULG spreads averaged
US$3.43/3.42/11.49/5.27 per barrel, +41%/-8%/+16%/+28%
QTD.
Page 2
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

For Feb 2021 delivery basis, Murban, Arab Light, and Arab
Extra Light averaged c.US$0.50/0.65/0.35 per barrel
respectively. On average, OSP increased by c.US$1.2/bbl
compared with the 4Q20 average.
OSP discount/premium by month
expectations of 4Q20F earnings to mark record high in 2020,
backed by declining OSP, c.US$4bbl inventory gain, and forex
gain.
Company Background
Thai Oil is Thailand's largest and most complex refinery. It is
the flagship refinery under the PTT group. Its refinery is
integrated with petrochemicals and lube base plants. TOP
also invests in other related businesses, including marine
transportation for petroleum products, ethanol and power
plants.

Historical PB band

PB band (x)
(x)
2.0

1.8
+2sd: 1.86x

1.6
+1sd: 1.54x
Source: TOP, DBSVTH 1.4

1.2 Avg: 1.21x

1.0
Upgrade to BUY rating with FY21F TP of Bt67, pegged to PBV of 1.2x -1sd: 0.89x
which is equivalent to 5-year average. Our upgrade is supported by
0.8

i) positive petroleum demand sentiment from vaccine rollout,

0.6 -2sd: 0.57x
0.4
ii) bottoming refinery and aromatics margins in 4Q20F, iii) Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

improving demand and supply imbalance after fuel inventory Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVTH estimates
is on the downtrend, especially in US, iv) strong correlation of
0.8 between share price performance and oil price, and v)

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 4Q2019 3Q2020 4Q2020F % chg yoy % chg qoq

Revenue 96,940 58,422 64,972 (33.0) 11.2

Cost of Goods Sold (94,843) (56,516) (61,890) (34.7) 9.5
Gross Profit 2,097 1,907 3,082 47.0 61.7
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (1,195) (697) (1,136) (5.0) 63.0
Operating Profit 901 1,210 1,946 115.9 60.9
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 829 391 300 (63.8) (23.3)
Associates & JV Inc 300 846 700 133.5 (17.3)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 144 (1,172) (909) nm 22.4
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 226 (453) 7,940 3,412.2 (1,854.2)
Pre-tax Profit 2,400 823 9,978 315.7 1,112.5
Tax (345) (32.6) (2,796) 710.7 8,468.9
Minority Interest (71.4) (75.0) (86.0) (20.4) 14.7
Net Profit 1,984 715 7,096 257.7 892.1
Net profit bef Except. 1,758 1,168 (844) nm (172.3)
EBITDA 3,759 4,665 4,688 24.7 0.5
Margins (%)
Gross Margins 2.2 3.3 4.7
Opg Profit Margins 0.9 2.1 3.0
Net Profit Margins 2.0 1.2 10.9
Source: Company, DBSVTH

Page 3
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Dubai crude oil (US$/bbl) 69.4 63.5 40.0 45.0 45.0
Avg. market GRM 4.70 3.10 0.40 2.50 2.70
PX spread vs. ULG95
(US$/bbl) 388 300 180 200 200
Utilization rate - refinery
(US$/t) 113 107 103 110 110
Utilization rate -
(%) 89.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 90.0
petchem (%)
Income Statement (Btm)
FY Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Revenue 389,344 364,327 251,747 257,003 257,709
Cost of Goods Sold (373,128) (355,756) (259,252) (244,428) (244,428)
Gross Profit 16,216 8,570 (7,506) 12,575 13,282
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (2,782) (2,684) (3,009) (3,308) (3,308)
Operating Profit 13,434 5,886 (10,515) 9,267 9,973
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 1,056 2,931 1,367 1,500 1,501
Associates & JV Inc 1,193 1,299 2,829 1,600 1,600
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (3,511) (3,307) (4,214) (5,624) (5,624)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 196 947 7,194 0.0 0.0
Pre-tax Profit 12,367 7,756 (3,339) 6,742 7,450
Tax (1,983) (1,239) 235 (1,011) (1,131)
Minority Interest (235) (240) (360) (132) (146)
Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Profit 10,149 6,277 (3,463) 5,599 6,173
Net Profit before Except. 9,953 5,330 (10,657) 5,599 6,173
EBITDA 22,946 17,201 1,879 20,638 21,345
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 15.4 (6.4) (30.9) 2.1 0.3
EBITDA Gth (%) (40.5) (25.0) (89.1) 998.3 3.4
Opg Profit Gth (%) (52.9) (56.2) (278.6) (188.1) 7.6
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (54.1) (46.5) nm nm 10.3
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 4.2 2.4 (3.0) 4.9 5.2
Opg Profit Margin (%) 3.5 1.6 (4.2) 3.6 3.9
Net Profit Margin (%) 2.6 1.7 (1.4) 2.2 2.4
ROAE (%) 8.3 5.2 (2.9) 4.8 5.1
ROA (%) 4.1 2.3 (1.2) 1.8 2.0
ROCE (%) 3.0 0.8 (5.6) 0.0 0.2
Div Payout Ratio (%) 53.4 48.9 N/A 44.2 44.2
Net Interest Cover (x) 3.8 1.8 (2.5) 1.6 1.8
Source: Company, DBSVTH

Page 4
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Quarterly Income Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 4Q2019 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020F

Revenue 96,940 77,831 50,522 58,422 64,972

Cost of Goods Sold (94,843) (91,654) (49,193) (56,516) (61,890)
Gross Profit 2,097 (13,823) 1,329 1,907 3,082
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (1,195) (585) (591) (697) (1,136)
Operating Profit 901 (14,408) 738 1,210 1,946
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 829 17.3 659 391 300
Associates & JV Inc 300 584 699 846 700
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 144 (1,105) (1,029) (1,172) (909)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 226 (2,338) 2,045 (453) 7,940
Pre-tax Profit 2,400 (17,250) 3,111 823 9,978
Tax (345) 3,558 (495) (32.6) (2,796)
Minority Interest (71.4) (62.3) (136) (75.0) (86.0)
Net Profit 1,984 (13,755) 2,480 715 7,096
Net profit bef Except. 1,758 (11,416) 435 1,168 (844)
EBITDA 3,759 (11,678) 4,204 4,665 4,688

Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 16.7 (19.7) (35.1) 15.6 11.2
EBITDA Gth (%) 77.5 nm nm 11.0 0.5
Opg Profit Gth (%) (242.4) (1,698.3) (105.1) 64.0 60.9
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (424.3) (749.4) (103.8) 168.4 (172.3)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 2.2 (17.8) 2.6 3.3 4.7
Opg Profit Margins (%) 0.9 (18.5) 1.5 2.1 3.0
Net Profit Margins (%) 2.0 (17.7) 4.9 1.2 10.9

Balance Sheet (Btm)

FY Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F
Net Fixed Assets 79,929 106,559 158,458 165,043 163,591
Invts in Associates & JVs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other LT Assets 23,940 42,209 36,952 48,643 62,888
Cash & ST Invts 107,262 76,611 70,031 49,821 39,337
Inventory 28,739 30,292 22,657 23,130 23,194
Debtors 25,741 23,753 20,140 20,560 20,617
Other Current Assets 3,002 4,019 4,053 4,087 4,122
Total Assets 268,613 283,445 312,291 311,284 313,748

ST Debt 6,940 2,912 2,912 2,912 2,912

Creditor 25,716 34,121 24,407 20,084 18,893
Other Current Liab 5,364 1,633 1,797 1,976 2,174
LT Debt 104,121 120,854 163,287 163,287 163,287
Other LT Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shareholder’s Equity 121,712 119,973 115,489 118,625 122,081
Minority Interests 4,760 3,951 4,399 4,400 4,401
Total Cap. & Liab. 268,613 283,445 312,291 311,284 313,748

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 26,402 22,310 20,646 25,716 26,866

Net Cash/(Debt) (3,799) (47,155) (96,168) (116,378) (126,862)
Debtors Turn (avg days) 23.1 24.8 31.8 28.9 29.2
Creditors Turn (avg days) 24.0 31.3 42.5 34.4 30.1
Inventory Turn (avg days) 30.7 30.9 38.5 35.4 35.8
Asset Turnover (x) 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8
Current Ratio (x) 4.3 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.6
Quick Ratio (x) 3.5 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.5
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0
Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0
Capex to Debt (%) 24.0 (19.0) 36.3 15.4 12.0
Z-Score (X) 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.9
Source: Company, DBSVTH

Page 5
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Cash Flow Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Pre-Tax Profit 10,384 6,516 (3,463) 5,599 6,173

Dep. & Amort. 7,264 7,085 8,197 8,271 8,271
Tax Paid (5,975) (1,802) 235 (1,011) (1,131)
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Wkg.Cap. 310 1,203 1,552 (5,198) (1,293)
Other Operating CF 6,330 85.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Operating CF 18,313 13,087 6,520 7,660 12,019
Capital Exp.(net) (26,600) 23,549 (60,256) (25,600) (20,000)
Other Invts.(net) 753 (206) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Div from Assoc & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Investing CF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Investing CF (25,846) 23,343 (60,256) (25,600) (20,000)
Div Paid (11,006) (4,386) (1,020) (2,463) (2,716)
Chg in Gross Debt 35,067 16,828 48,000 0.0 0.0
Capital Issues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Financing CF 1,889 (8,059) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Financing CF 25,951 4,382 46,980 (2,463) (2,716)
Currency Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Cash 18,417 40,813 (6,756) (20,403) (10,697)
Opg CFPS (Bt) 8.82 5.83 2.44 6.30 6.53
Free CFPS (Bt) (4.1) 18.0 (26.3) (8.8) (3.9)
Source: Company, DBSVTH

Target Price & Ratings History

Bt
65.65 12- mt h
Dat e of Closing
S. No. T arget Rat ing
Report Pric e
60.65 Pric e
1 1: 15 J an 20 61.75 78.00 BUY
55.65 2
2: 17 F eb 20 53.50 69.00 BUY
3: 30 Mar 20 29.00 41.00 BUY
50.65 13
4: 09 Apr 20 35.50 41.00 BUY
45.65 6 8 5: 17 Apr 20 38.00 41.00 BUY
10
6: 11 May 20 43.25 41.00 HOLD
40.65 7 9
12 7: 01 J un 20 44.50 54.00 BUY
4
8: 09 J ul 20 43.25 54.00 BUY
35.65
5 9: 21 J ul 20 45.00 54.00 BUY
11 10: 11 Aug 20 41.75 47.00 HOLD
30.65
11: 16 Oct 20 35.50 41.00 HOLD
25.65 3 12: 06 Nov 20 37.00 41.00 HOLD
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 13: 15 Dec 20 54.25 51.00 HOLD

Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.

Source: DBSVTH
Analyst: Duladeth BIK, CFA, FRM, CAIA

THAI-CAC (as of Jun 2019) Declared

Corporate Governance CG Rating (as of Oct 2019)

THAI-CAC is Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Score Description

Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai Declared Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC
CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of May 2018) are Certified Companies certified by CAC.
categorised into:
Score Range Number of Logo Description
Corporate Governance CG Rating is based on Thai Institute of 90-100 Excellent
Directors (IOD)’s annual assessment of corporate governance
practices of listed companies. The assessment covers 235 criteria 80-89 Very Good
in five categories including board responsibilities (35% weighting),
70-79 Good
disclosure and transparency (20%), role of stakeholders (20%),
equitable treatment of shareholders (10%) and rights of 60-69 Satisfactory
shareholders (15%). The IOD then assigns numbers of logos to
50-59 Pass
each company based on their scoring as follows:
<50 No logo given N/A

Page 6
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

DBSVTH recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
*Share price appreciation + dividends

Completed Date: 13 Jan 2021 08:10:38 (THA)

Dissemination Date: 13 Jan 2021 08:56:58 (THA)

Sources for all charts and tables are DBSVTH unless otherwise specified.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd (''DBSVTH''). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd,
DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this
document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd (''DBSVTH'').

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to
DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents
(collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into
account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any
representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does
not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document
is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should
obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or
consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further
communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in
the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned
herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.

Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and
there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or
risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete
or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS
Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.

This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no
planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.

The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates
and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the
estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary
significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments
described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with
the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or
risk assessments stated therein.

Page 7
 Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)
mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating
to the commodity referred to in this report.

DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any
public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does
not engage in market-making.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of
his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The
research analyst (s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does
not serve as an officer of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the
management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of
the entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily
responsible for the content of this research report or his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new
listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of
interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates
as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure
that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of
DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of the DBS Group.

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS'') or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a
proprietary position in Thai Oil PCL recommended in this report as of 30 Nov 2020.
2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this
Research Report.

Compensation for investment banking services:

3. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of
securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US
persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a
transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced:

4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have
published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research
report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view
previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their
subsidiaries and/or other affiliates in the preceding 12 months.

1
An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust
of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another
person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2
Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an
issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or
analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme
other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer
or a new listing applicant.

Page 8
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or
resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,
availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS or DBSV HK. DBS Bank Ltd holds Australian
Financial Services Licence no. 475946.

DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under
the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS Bank Ltd and
DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is
regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from
Australian laws.

Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report has been prepared by an entity(ies) which is not licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and Futures
Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). This report is being distributed in Hong Kong and is
attributable to DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a registered institution registered with the Hong Kong Securities
and Futures Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and
Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability
company incorporated in Singapore.

For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Carol Wu (Reg No. AH8283) at dbsvhk@dbs.com

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report,
received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in
connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page,
recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance
Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers,
employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect
transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment
banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received
compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other
services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company
Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and
regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced
by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under
Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who
is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility
for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should
contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Page 9
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd.

United This report is produced by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd which is regulated by the Securities and
Kingdom Exchange Commission, Thailand.

This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, ("DBSVUK"). DBSVUK is
authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected
and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or
duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This
communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any
investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do
not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.

Dubai This research report is being distributed by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at units 608 - 610, 6th
International Floor, Gate Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is
Financial regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as
Centre defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United Arab This report is provided by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as
Emirates defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is for
information purposes only and should not be relied upon or acted on by the recipient or considered as a
solicitation or inducement to buy or sell any financial product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or
take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual clients. You should
contact your relationship manager or investment adviser if you need advice on the merits of buying, selling or
holding a particular investment. You should note that the information in this report may be out of date and it is not
represented or warranted to be accurate, timely or complete. This report or any portion thereof may not be
reprinted, sold or redistributed without our written consent.

United States This report was prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd (''DBSVTH''). DBSVUSA did not participate in its
preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and
are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on
analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by
a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for
its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6)
and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person
receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA
directly and not its affiliate.

Other In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for
jurisdictions qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such
jurisdictions.

Page 10
Company Update

Thai Oil PCL

DBS Regional Research Offices

HONG KONG MALAYSIA SINGAPORE

DBS (Hong Kong) Ltd AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd
Contact: Carol Wu Contact: Wong Ming Tek
13th Floor One Island East, 19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose,
18 Westlands Road, Capital Square,
Quarry Bay, Hong Kong 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah 50100
Tel: 852 3668 4181 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Fax: 852 2521 1812 Tel.: 603 2604 3333
e-mail: dbsvhk@dbs.com Fax: 603 2604 3921
e-mail: general@alliancedbs.com
Co. Regn No. 198401015984 (128540-U)
DBS Bank Ltd
Contact: Janice Chua
12 Marina Boulevard,
Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3
Singapore 018982
Tel: 65 6878 8888
e-mail: groupresearch@dbs.com
Company Regn. No. 196800306E

THAILAND INDONESIA
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia)
Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif
989 Siam Piwat Tower Building, DBS Bank Tower
9th, 14th-15th Floor Ciputra World 1, 32/F
Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan, Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5
Bangkok Thailand 10330 Jakarta 12940, Indonesia
Tel. 66 2 857 7831 Tel: 62 21 3003 4900
Fax: 66 2 658 1269 Fax: 6221 3003 4943
e-mail: research@th.dbs.com e-mail: indonesiaresearch@dbs.com
Company Regn. No 0105539127012
Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand

Page 11