Professional Documents
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H Ch Minh.
Vo thi im cch y 10 nm, khng my ngi dn Si Thnh c th tng
tng rng mnh c th mua c mi th ngay c khi ngi ti nh, chng phi i
u. Th nhng, vi tc pht trin chng mt ca internet v cng ngh s ha
trong vi nm ngn ngi gn y, Thng mi in t - tc vic mua bn hng ha
da trn internet bin gic m trn tr thnh hin thc.
Trong nn kinh t s, thng tin c truyn qua mng vi tc cao. iu ny
to ra nhng kh nng lm thay i thi quen tiu dng v mua bn ca con ngi
m trong , ngi mua v bn c th giao dch vi i tc bt k u trn th
gii m khng cn thng qua trung gian. Vic gip khch hng d dng hn
trong vic chn la khi mua hng v gim chi ph. Hn na, Thng mi in t
cng kch thch s tip cn vi nn kinh t tri thc ca ngi dn. y l mt li
ch mang tnh chin lc cng ngh c th gip nc ta to c bc nhy vt
trong tin trnh CNH-HH trong thi gian ngn hn. Mt khc, s pht trin ca h
thng mng my tnh, mi cng vic c th c x l v gii quyt ti nh thng
qua internet.
Tuy nhin mt tr ngi ln nht ca Thng mi in t l vn bo v ngi
tiu dng trc thng tin bt i xng khi ngi mua khng th thy tn mt, bt
tn tay hng ha trc khi mua, cng nh vic thanh ton in t cha ph bin ti
Vit Nam. Hai vn trn chnh l tr ngi ln nht i vi s nhn rng v pht
trin ca thng mi in t, thm ch mt thnh ph ln nht nh nc nh thnh
ph H Ch Minh. Mc d vy, s lng ngi s dng e-commerce vn ngy cng
tng khng nhng trong gii tr m cn trong mt b phn ngi dn khc.
Nh vy, li ch ca thng mi in t r, hin tng ngi dng tng ln l
thc t. Nhng iu g gii thch cho hnh vi mua hng qua mng ca nhng tn
e-commerce trong ngi dn thnh ph H Ch Minh? l cu hi m nhm
chng em lun trn tr. V l l do thc y nhm thc hin ti Nhng yu
t nh hng n xu hng mua hng qua mng ca ngi dn thnh ph H Ch
Minh. Trong ti ny, nhm chng em s dng ngay nhng kin thc Kinh T
Lng ang hc v tm hiu thm v Thng Mi in T thc hin. Hi vng,
ti ny s l kinh nghim qu gi cho nhm em v ti liu tham kho hu ch cho
nhng ai mun thc hin Thng Mi in T sau ny. Rt mong nhn c s
ng gp kin ca thy c v cc bn ti c hon thin hn.
2. C S L LUN:
Kch t marketing
u
t
Thng hiu
Gi c
Chiu th
Phn Phi
Kch t ph marketing
Kinh t
Chnh tr
Vn ha
X hi
Qu trnh ra quyt nh
Nhn dng nhu cu
Qu
trnh
Tm l
ng c
Kin thc
Nhn thc
Nhn cch
Thi
Kinh nghim
Hnh vi hu quyt nh
u
ra
Mua hng
Th
Lp li
nh gi
sau khi mua
Trong quy trnh ra quyt nh, thng gm ba bin: nhn dng nhu cu, tm
kim thng tin, nh gi thay th. Tuy nhin, ng vi tng loi sn phm khc
nhau, qu trnh mua hng ca mi c nhn c th khng ng nh trnh t cc bc
trong s . Sau khi mua hng online, ngi tiu dng s c kinh nghim, n tc
ng trc tip n yu t tm l, m c th l nim tin ca h. iu ny tt yu s
tc ng n hnh vi mua hng lp li.
Th ba, theo l thuyt tiu dng v hnh vi th trng ca Assael (consumer
behavior and marketing action) quy trnh ra quyt nh mua hng cn ph thuc
vo c tnh ca thng hiu. Assael phn ra bn dng hnh vi tiu dng da theo
mc cn nhc ca ngi tiu dng v nhn thc ca khch hng v mc khc
bit ca thng hiu, gm c: quyt nh phc tp, so snh thp, tm kim a dng,
qun tnh. Da vo l thuyt ny ta c th nhn xt: hnh vi tm kim nh hng
n vic mua hng l khc nhau nhng hng ha khc nhau.
3. CHN BIN V LP M HNH:
3.1 CHN BIN:
Hnh vi mua hng chu tc ng bi nhiu yu t, trnh vic b st bin c
ngha c th gy thin lch trong c lng, nhm tin hnh chn nhng bin theo
l thuyt c nh hng n hnh vi mua. Nhm thc hin ti kinh t lng ny
theo phng php T tng qut n n ginHendry/Lse. Do m hnh u
tin ca nhm tng i c nhiu bin, sau nhm thc hin n gin ha da
trn d liu bng kim nh Wald v kim nh t. Sau y l cc bin c chn
cho m hnh u tin ca nhm:
YU T NI TI:
AGE ( tui ): tui cng cao ngi ta cng t tip cn cng ngh hn nn t
mua hng qua mng hn. K vng m (-)
INC (Thu nhp): Thu nhp cng cao ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng nhiu
hn. K vng ( + )
SEARCH (Tm kim thng tin qua mng): Tm kim thng tin v hng ha trn
mng cng nhiu th ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng qua mng hn. K
vng (+)
JOB (Ngh nghip) y l bin Dummy. JOB=1 l nhng ngi ang c vic
lm, JOB=0 l sinh vin. Hnh vi mua hng c th khc nhau gia ngi c
vic lm v sinh vin. V do tro lu, sinh vin c th mua hng qua mng nhiu
hn. K vng m ( - )
JOB_INC Bin JOB c th nh hng n thu nhp. V hiu ng thu nhp tc
ng ln hnh vi mua hng c th khc nhau sinh vin v ngi i lm.
iu hin nhin l sinh vin s chi tiu ht s tin thu nhp trong khi nhng
ngi i lm s tit kim cho con ci, mua nh ca, tui gi. V vy k vng
giu ( - )
TRUST (Nim tin): c o theo thang o tng dn t 1 n 10, cng tin tng
v cht lng hng ha c bn qua mng th ngi ta mua cng nhiu. K
vng ( + ).
Nhn xt: ng l ra bin TRUST phi l cc bin Dummy v nu s dng
bin TRUST nh mt bin nh lng l mt rng buc qu nghim ngt c kh
nng gy sai m hnh.
IU KIN X HI:
FRIEND: (bn b) Dummy. Bn b c thng hay gii thiu v nhng hng
ha c bn trn mng hay khng. FRIEND = 1 l c, FRIEND = 0 l khng.
K vng ( + )
DIST (Khong cch): Khi m khong cch n ni mua hng ha trc tip cng
di th ngi ta cng c xu hng mua hng qua mng hn. K vng ( + )
PAY (Hnh thc thanh ton): hnh thc thanh ton tr tin trc hay tr tin sau
c th nh hng khc nhau i vi vic mua hng qua mng. PAY = 1 l tr
tin trc, PAY = 0 l tr tin sau. K vng m ( - )
DISC: Dummy. Chi ph mua hng qua mng l r hn hay l t hn so vi khi
mua trc tip. DISC =1 l r hn. DISC = 0 l t hn. K vng m ( + )
TRANS (thi gian giao hng) thi gian giao hng cng nhanh th ngi ta cng
c xu hng mua hng qua mng nhiu hn. K vng m ( - ).
Ngoi ra cc loi hng ha khc nhau cng c th nh hng n hnh vi
mua hng khc nhau.
BIN C GII THCH: TIMES ( s ln mua hng qua mng trong
nm gn y nht)
3.2 IU TRA:
Nhm tin hnh iu tra 104 ngi gm c sinh vin v nhng ngi ang i
lm.
i vi sinh vin: K tc x, Khoa Kinh T, H Quc T, H KHXHVNV
i vi ngi ang i lm: COOPMART Th c, BIG C Hong Vn Th,
Nh n i hc quc gia, Khu cng ngh phn mm...
3.3 LP M HNH:
Sau khi iu tra xong s liu, nhm tin hnh a thm 2 bin Dummy:
BOOK: BOOK = 1, nu mt hng ngi thng mua l sch. BOOK = 0 nu
l mt hng khc
CLOTH: CLOTH = 1, nu mt hng ngi thng mua l qun o, dy dp,
ti xch. CLOTH = 0 nu l mt hng khc.
M HNH D KIN:
Times = b1 + b2Age + b3INC + b4Job*Inc + b5Search + b6Job + b7Friend + b8Dist
+ b9Disc + b10Pay + b11Trans + b12Cloth + b13Book + b14Trust
4. KIM NH V XUT CC M HNH SO SNH:
Sau y l kt qu Eview ca m hnh xut ban u:
Dependent Variable: TIMES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 02:35
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
AGE
BOOK
CLOTH
DISC
DIST
FRIEND
-0.240131
-0.486097
1.471030
0.547865
0.000548
0.479025
0.118859
0.857505
0.726098
0.782940
0.000535
0.671476
-2.020310
-0.566873
2.025939
0.699753
1.023877
0.713391
0.0463
0.5722
0.0457
0.4859
0.3086
0.4774
INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
TRANS
JOB_INC
JOB
C
1.188764
0.588726
0.393145
0.764155
-0.024334
-0.790295
1.346170
-2.041251
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.557826
0.493956
2.832283
721.9646
-248.3240
1.663994
0.538436
0.681892
0.077520
0.225875
0.077510
0.555658
1.436344
2.929813
2.207807
0.863370
5.071554
3.383080
-0.313939
-1.422268
0.937220
-0.696717
0.0298
0.3902
0.0000
0.0011
0.7543
0.1584
0.3512
0.4878
3.798077
3.981461
5.044693
5.400669
8.733813
0.000000
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
AGE
BOOK
CLOTH
DISC
DIST
FRIEND
INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
JOB_INC
JOB
-0.244486
-0.495523
1.464077
0.556954
0.000478
0.473480
1.155621
0.592774
0.395121
0.778122
-0.752803
1.300255
0.117460
0.852724
0.722156
0.778520
0.000484
0.667911
0.525364
0.678385
0.076880
0.220351
0.539978
1.421783
-2.081434
-0.581106
2.027369
0.715401
0.987495
0.708897
2.199659
0.873801
5.139454
3.531282
-1.394135
0.914524
0.0402
0.5626
0.0456
0.4762
0.3260
0.4802
0.0304
0.3845
0.0000
0.0007
0.1667
0.3629
-2.107901
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.557341
0.498969
2.818220
722.7552
-248.3810
1.655278
2.907602
-0.724962
0.4703
3.798077
3.981461
5.026557
5.357106
9.548000
0.000000
Tip tc b dn nhng bin c pvalue cao theo th t l book, disc, Dist, Friend. Ta
c m hnh
Dependent Variable: TIMES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/29/09 Time: 03:07
Sample: 1 104
Included observations: 104
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
AGE
CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
SEARCH
TRUST
C
-0.189565
1.603882
1.176916
1.490703
-0.827479
0.753674
0.392725
0.835927
-3.074116
0.103508
0.623493
0.513628
1.380941
0.521611
0.643235
0.075579
0.211206
2.661819
-1.831400
2.572416
2.291380
1.079483
-1.586389
1.171693
5.196197
3.957867
-1.154893
0.0702
0.0116
0.0242
0.2831
0.1160
0.2443
0.0000
0.0001
0.2510
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.545469
0.507192
2.794997
742.1407
-249.7573
1.665423
3.798077
3.981461
4.976102
5.204943
14.25080
0.000000
(U):Times=-2.041251-0.240131Age-0.486097Book+1.471030Cloth+
0.547865Disc
+0.000548Dist+0.479025Friend+1.188764Inc+0.588726Pay
0.393145Search+ 0.764155Trust-0.024334Trans-0.790295Job_Inc+1.346170Job
(R):Times=-2.041251-0.240131Age+1.471030Cloth+1.188764Inc+0.588726Pay
+0.393145Search+0.764155Trust-0.790295Job_Inc+1.346170Job
t-Statistic
Prob.
CLOTH
2.122868 0.759344
2.795663
0.0063
INC
1.300347 0.382204
3.402236
0.0010
JOB
1.910650 1.036524
1.843323
0.0685
JOB_INC
-0.898703 0.392755
-2.288201
0.0244
PAY
0.877585 0.490170
1.790367
0.0767
TRUST
0.797775 0.160511
4.970205
0.0000
SEA2
0.014262 0.005369
2.656552
0.0093
AGE
-0.197644 0.078799
-2.508208
0.0139
BOOK_SEA
0.105570 0.220636
0.478481
0.6335
BOOK_SEA2
-0.018906 0.013962
-1.354049
0.1791
CLOTH_SEA
-0.599437 0.209790
-2.857318
0.0053
CLOTH_SEA2
0.071260 0.013442
5.301326
0.0000
-1.789762 2.056926
-0.870115
0.3865
R-squared
0.759029
3.798077
3.981461
S.E. of regression
2.079328
4.418436
393.4482
Schwarz criterion
4.748984
Log likelihood
-216.7586
F-statistic
23.88653
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
t-Statistic
Prob.
CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
SEA2
AGE
CLOTH_SEA
CLOTH_SEA2
C
2.034212
1.266139
1.878079
-0.802258
1.036724
0.746802
0.006587
-0.223332
-0.606700
0.079620
-0.808936
2.718694
3.286364
1.812295
-2.045621
2.129577
4.671069
1.791323
-2.855042
-2.865181
6.192982
-0.401785
0.0078
0.0014
0.0732
0.0436
0.0358
0.0000
0.0765
0.0053
0.0052
0.0000
0.6888
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.748991
0.722000
2.099252
409.8378
-218.8809
1.760622
0.748231
0.385270
1.036299
0.392183
0.486821
0.159878
0.003677
0.078224
0.211749
0.012857
2.013357
3.798077
3.981461
4.420786
4.700481
27.75042
0.000000
t-Statistic
Prob.
CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
E_SEA
AGE
ECLOTH
C
1.229559
1.367404
1.965042
-0.866406
1.400432
0.795095
5.91E-10
-0.242134
4.94E-08
-0.761044
2.670019
3.674133
1.966560
-2.281873
3.001483
5.173354
0.395655
-3.243516
10.95731
-0.394893
0.0089
0.0004
0.0522
0.0248
0.0034
0.0000
0.6933
0.0016
0.0000
0.6938
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.761833
0.739030
2.033938
388.8690
-216.1499
1.895642
0.460506
0.372171
0.999228
0.379690
0.466580
0.153690
1.49E-09
0.074652
4.51E-09
1.927214
3.798077
3.981461
4.349036
4.603305
33.40906
0.000000
t-Statistic
Prob.
CLOTH
INC
JOB
JOB_INC
PAY
TRUST
AGE
ECLOTH
C
1.198511
1.380596
1.977616
-0.876510
1.402768
0.801419
-0.244596
4.99E-08
-0.751221
2.653031
3.741198
1.988995
-2.324064
3.020169
5.266363
-3.302643
11.72373
-0.391571
0.0094
0.0003
0.0496
0.0223
0.0032
0.0000
0.0014
0.0000
0.6963
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.761437
0.741347
2.024889
389.5166
-216.2364
1.894630
0.451751
0.369025
0.994279
0.377145
0.464467
0.152177
0.074061
4.26E-09
1.918480
3.798077
3.981461
4.331470
4.560311
37.90214
0.000000
M hnh la chn:
Times=
-0.751221
1.198511Cloth
1.380596Inc
1.977616Job
-0.87651Job_Inc+1.402768Pay+0.801419Trust-0.244596Age+(4.99*10^-8)Ecloth
NHN XT:
1. Nhm bin Cloth v Ecloth: hai bin ny c hin tng a cng tuyn, tuy
2. Bin Pay: bin Pay tri du so vi k vng du (+), liu vic ny c phi l
do c trng m hnh sai hay thiu bin quan trng. Vic thiu bin quan
trng b nhm bc b v ban u theo l thuyt, kinh nghim v hiu bit
nhm a rt nhiu cc bin (14 bin s kho c cho l c nh hng
n hnh vi mua hng), sau thn trng hn, nhm cn to cc bin th
cp (nh trnh by trn) da trn mt nn tng l thuyt vng chc. Do
kh chp nhn rng nhm b st bin quan trng. Ngoi ra R2 hiu
chnh ca nhm tng i cao (nghin cu v d liu cho) cng l mt lp
lun ng h nhn nh ny.
c trng m hnh sai c l l yu t cn c cn nhc thn trng. Nh
trnh by trn, bin TRUST (nim tin v cht lng hng ha theo thang o
10 im) l rng buc qu nghim ngt c kh nng gy sai c trng m
hnh trm trng. ng l n phi l nhiu bin Dummy. Tuy nhin, h s
bin TRUST c du nh k vng, Pvalue(Trust) = 0, R2 hiu chnh =
0.741347 chng t c trng m hnh l khng qu sai. Nhm nhn nh
rng nu c s chnh sa li trong vic s dng bin Trust (TRUST s dng
l cc bin Dummy) s lm tng R2 hiu chnh nhng cng s khng thay i
du ca PAY.
Vy iu g l gii cho vic h s ca bin Pay dng?
Nhn vo l thuyt: M hnh hnh vi tiu dng ca Schiffman v Kanuk.
Hai ng cho rng sau khi mua hng ngi ta s c nh gi sau khi mua.
Nhng nh gi ny to thnh kinh nghim ca ngi tiu dng. Kinh
nghim ny l mt yu t tc ng n Tm l (ng c, kin thc, nhn
thc, nhn cch, thi ). V Tm l li tc ng n nhn dng nhu cu,
tm kim thng tin v nh gi thay th.
L thuyt ny gii thch iu g cho h s ca bin Pay dng.
Gi nh A: Khi mua hng thanh ton tr tin trc, nhng ngi c giao
dch thnh cng nh gi tt v hnh thc ny (khng c la o, m bo
t cc trc mn hng mnh yu thch ko ngi khc mua mt (li gii
thch ca c Hoa), thun tin cho vic mua hng trn nhng trang web ni
5. Kin Ngh
Theo thng k ca Trung tm Internet Vit Nam (VNNIC), tnh n ht thng
3/2009, c nc c 21,1 triu ngi s dng Internet, chim gn 25% dn s ca
c nc, d bo s c kh nng tng ln 36% vo nm 2012. Do vy, c th ni
thng mi in t l mt knh kinh doanh y tim nng i vi cc doanh nghip
Vit Nam. Qua cuc kho st, nhm nhn thy rng hnh thc tr tin trc nh
hng rt ln n quyt nh mua sn phm ca khch hng. Do , vic nng cao
mc tin tng ca khch hng l mt iu ht sc cn thit, cc doanh nghip
cn c nhng trang web vi mc tin tng cao nh amazon.com,
ebay.com..Tc l cn quan tm nhiu hn n khch hng, trc tip v nhanh
chng gii p nhng thc mc cng nh bi thng thit hi cho khch hng khi
c s c xy ra. Qua , cn a dng ho thng tin tm kim cng nh a dng ho
danh mc sn phm nhm gim thiu chnh lch thng tin. Bi vi nhiu s la
chn trn mt trang web th mc tin tng ca khch hng s cao hn.
Hn na, mt gii php khc chnh l cc doanh nghip ny cn lin kt vi
nhiu ngn hng uy tn trong vic to ti khon cho khch hng, gi s trong trng
hp ngi mua t hng v thanh ton qua ngn hng nhng ngi bn khng
giao hng, th ngn hng phi ng ra phn x, chng minh ti chnh gip ngi
mua, nhm lm cho khch hng yn tm hn khi s dng dch v.
CM N THY, C XEM BI TRNH BY CA NHM!