Petroleum System:

A system that includes all geological elements and

processes that are essential for an oil and gas deposit
to exist in nature (after Magoon, 1988).

A petroleum system encompasses a pod of active

source rock and all genetically related oil and gas
accumulations.

(Refer to Petroleum System Slides)

Play and Prospect:
A prospect is a potential trap that must be evaluated
by drilling to determine whether it contains com-
mercial quantities of petroleum.
Once drilling is complete, the term “prospect” is
dropped; the site becomes either a dry hole or a
producing field.

A play ia a group of prospects (potential field sites

and any known related fields having common oil and
gas sources, migration relationships, reservoir form-
ation, seals and trap types (White, 1993 etc)
Prospects

Prospect and Play

Prospects and Plays in South Sumatera Basin
Risk and Uncertainty in Exploration:
Uncertainty is commonly used to characterize the
fact that any outcome of a decision (process) is not
precisely known, with the degree, described by
probability that it will occur

Probability refers to the adequacy of the geological

model that will give the existence of at least one
field, larger than a practical minimum size.
The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1.0 and
define the success “chance” of discovery. As a rule
this value is less than 1 and the rest part of probabi-
lity value determines the geologic risk, i.e. “chance”
of failure or not having a field.

1 – Probability = Risk
Prospect Assessment Procedure
Prospect evaluation incorporates investigations of:
• Assessment of geological risk
• Estimation of hydrocarbon volumes
• Engineering
• Economics
• Postdrill review

Need to understand: Expectation curve, probability

distribution, probability curve  probability values.
Prospect Assessment Procedure
 Volumetric Estimation
Hydrocarbon-In-Place in undrilled prospects can be calculated
using classical volumetric equation by multiplying:
1. Net pay volume
2. Average porosity
3. Average oil saturation
4. Trap fill
5. 1/formation volume factor
6. Conversion factor

In practice, the potential volume distribution of HC is made by

multiplying the above parameters in a Monte Carlo simulation.
Each volume factor is entered into the simulation as a range of
values, reflecting its uncertainties. The final result is the un-
risked potential curve of Hydrocarbon-In-Place distribution.
Risk Assessment

Risk Factors Definition

Two approaches for determining the main risk

factors controlling the HC occurences: Theoretical
& practical.

The theoretical approach evolves from petroleum

system concept, where four processes (generation,
migration, entrapment and preservation or retention)
are assumed to have taken place.
 These processes depend on group of main factors,
which should be characterized by number of individual,
independent parameters for personal judgement
(assigned a value of):

1. Presence and quality of reservoirs (Probability of

reservoir - Pr)
2. Presence and quality of source rocks (Probability
of source rock – Psr)
3. Traps, seals and timing (sequence of time between
generation, migration and trap fromation (Probability
of trap and seal – Pt&s)
4. Preservation (Probability of preservation – Ppr).
The practical approach arises from company’s explor-
ation practice.

Based on the worldwide experience, four main factors

determining the geological risk of HC discovery are:

• Structural interpretation, i.e. trap existence

• Reservoir prediction – presence of reservoir rocks
• Existence and quality of trapping
• Source rock characteristics
Risking Prospect Procedure

The probability of discovery is a value that is calculat-

ed on objective judgement of the above main factors
with respect to the presence and effectiveness,
depending on case geological features.

The assessed risk can be obtained by multiplying the

main factors. The combined (weighted) probability
(Ps) of occurrence (discovery, or commercial accumul-
ation) is:
Ps = Pr × Psr × Pt & s × Ppr
Risked expectation (potential) curve construction

Risked potential can be plotted on a curve (called

risked potential curve), by employing the calculated
risk (chance of prospect to exist).

In practice the un-risked curve should be discounted

in order to reduce each potential by combined risk
value.
Play Assessment Procedure
There are a number of techniques proposed by experts.
These techniques depend on geological knowledge lev-
el. The ideal procedure is to aggregate all the individu-
al prospect assessments.
A straightforward way recently used is to assess undis-
covered oil and gas resources based on the number and
size distributions of potential fields in a play, using
Monte Carlo simulation.
The procedure in its simplest way is:
Play Hydrocarbon volume (in bbl) =
Number of prospects × Success ratios (potential fields
from all the prospects) × Potential field size (in bbl)
Play Assessment Procedure
Additional requirement for accepted method, besides
field number and size distribution is the estimate of
chance that a play really exists (i.e. the chance of
existence of at least one field of minimum size within
a play outline).
Play Fields-size and Field-number Distribution

Fields-size Distribution
There are three ways for building the field-size
distribution:
1. Using the geological model analogy (look-alike
approach) going from known to new area;
2. The play already exist and plotting its representative
prospects one can assess the expected volumetric
distribution;
3. Monte Carlo simulation of the prospects volumetric
factors to produce a distribution of possible field
sizes.
 Notes:
• Hydrocarbon volume distribution curve must be cons-
tructed over principals of economically minimum size.
HC economic volume is critical and determines the
geological success (positive outcome or discovery)

•There various different approcahes to determine the

minimum prospect size. Expl: Otis & Schneidermann
(1997) propose to be one capable of testing a stabil-
ized flow; White (1993) – 50K to 50M bbl; Jordanov
et.al (2006) – 6M bbl.
Fields-number Distribution
The approach is similar to field-size distribution. In com-
pletely postulated plays (virgin frontiers) it would be help-
ful to implement look-alike field density – for example
number of field per unit and others. Jordanov et.al. (2006)
employ the distribution of the propsects in a play, times
the future success ratio.

Success Ratio
It reflects an independent geologc risk among prospects
and should be assessed separately from the play chance
attributes. It is the number of prospects in a play which is
expected to become fields. Generally it ranges from 0.3 to
0.9. Typically for a new play which is presented by positive
marginal factors, the success ratio ~ 0.25-0.3.
 Play Chance Procedure
• The play chance means the chance of occurrence of at
least one field of minimum size.
• Baker et al. (1984), White (1993) and others: it must be
calculated incorporating risks arising factors from regional
geologic settings (Regional Play Chance or Marginal Pro-
bability – RPC). These factors are independent and refer to
the conditional probability.
• Inherent for a play factors are: reservoir facies, source
rock, retention; inherent for each prospect – porosity,
trap, seal, migration.
• The Average Prospect Chance (APC), i.e. the chance of
occurrence of at least one field of at least minimum size
(of a certain potential volume) within the play is the pro-
duct of the Regional Play Chance (RPC) to the Play Success
Ratio (PSR);
APC = RPC × PSR
 Example of
Prospect and Play Resource Assessment
 Prospects

NORTH BULGARIAN UPLIFT POSTULATED

Prospect andPETROLEUM
Play PLAY AS A PART
OF PALEOZOIC-CRETACEOUS PETROLEUM SYSTEM (After Popesku, 1995)