Economic Antecedents of Child Abuse and Neglect

Author(s): Laurence D. Steinberg, Ralph Catalano and David Dooley

Source: Child Development , Sep., 1981, Vol. 52, No. 3 (Sep., 1981), pp. 975-985
Published by: Wiley on behalf of the Society for Research in Child Development

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1129102

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 Economic Antecedents of Child Abuse
and Neglect

Laurence D. Steinberg, Ralph Catalano, and David Dooley

University of California, Irvine

STEINBERG, LAURENCE D.; CATALANO, RALPH; and DOOLEY, DAVID. Economic Antecedents of
Child Abuse and Neglect. CHILD DEVELOPMENT, 1981, 52, 975-985. Previous cross-sectional
studies of economic influences on child maltreatment reveal that higher rates of child abuse are
associated with undesirable economic conditions. The cross-sectional approach, however, is
inherently unable to reveal causal direction and leaves open the possibility that the relationship
between the economy and child maltreatment is due to some third variable. The present study
employs an aggregate longitudinal approach to test the hypothesis that undesirable economic
change leads to increased child maltreatment. Cross-correlational analyses of data over a 30-
month period reveal that increases in child abuse are preceded by periods of high job loss. This
finding is replicated in 2 distinct metropolitan communities under very conservative criteria
which rule out most "third-variable" explanations. The loss of jobs in a community may en-
danger the well-being of children.

There is a growing consensus among re- maltreatment is more likely to occur among
searchers and practitioners that the maltreat-families experiencing unemployment (Galston
ment of children results, in part, from stress.1964; Gil 1971; Light 1973). Aggregate-level
Consequently, rates of abuse and neglect can analyses use geographic or temporal units. For
be thought of as indicators of the quality of example, overall rates of abuse are higher in
life for families, and maltreatment can be regions characterized by a high proportion of
viewed as a symptom, rather than a cause, of low-income families (Garbarino 1976; Garba-
difficulties in family and individual function- rino & Crouter 1978b) and in areas charac-
ing. Although considerable controversy has cen-terized by unusually high rates of unemploy-
tered around the relative predictive powers of ment (see Cochran & Bronfenbrenner 1979, p.
intrapsychic or personality trait, intrafamilial 144). A potential problem with such studies
conflict, and extrafamilial stress models of theis that biases inherent in the reporting of mal-
etiology of child maltreatment, all three view-treatment may underrepresent its incidence
points have received some empirical support. among affluent families (thus exaggerating the
A sophisticated understanding of the problemassociation of poverty or unemployment with
must regard maltreatment as multiply deter-child maltreatment). The most recent research
mined (Belsky 1980; Starr 1979). on the validity of reporting procedures, how-
This study explores the association, over ever, suggests that the observed relation be-
tween economic strain and maltreatment is a
time, of reported child maltreatment with one
genuine one (Garbarino & Crouter 1978a).
contextual or extrafamilial factor--community
economic change. Of the several extrafamilial While the results of the above-mentioned
factors implicated in the etiology of child abusecross-sectional studies are consistent with the
and neglect, none has received greater researcheconomic stress/child abuse hypothesis, the
attention than economic stress. The hypothesiscross-sectional approach is inherently unable to
that maltreatment may be related to economicreveal causal direction. Cross-sectional studies
factors has received support from cross-sec- typically contrast the unemployment or poverty
tional studies at both the aggregate and indi- of abusing and nonabusing households or the
vidual levels. Individual-level studies take the abuse rates of high- and low-status communi-
family as the unit of analysis. For example,ties. Observed differences are consistent with
Order of first two authors was determined by coin flip. Authors' address: Public Policy
Research Organization and Program in Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine, Cali-
fornia 92717. This research was supported in part by NIMH grants MH28934 and MH31499.
We thank an anonymous reviewer from this journal who made helpful comments on an earlier
draft of this paper.
[Child Development, 1981, 52, 975-985. @ 1981 by the Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.
0009-3920/81/5203-0002$01.001

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976 Child Development
at least two plausible hypotheses: (a) that un- ality or family factors of which both child mal-
employment or low economic status causes treatment and economic difficulty may be
child abuse, or (b) that some unmeasured effects are practically invariant over short pe-
characteristic of the breadwinner, the family, riods of time in a large community. For ex-
or the geographic unit causes both the eco- ample, the proportion of dispositionally violent
nomic condition of the household and the abuse or conflicting parents in a metropolitan popula-
of the child. The latter alternative is a case of tion probably does not vary from month to
the third-variable problem which afflicts cor- month. Nor would any such variation be likely
relational research. to cause community economic change. Similar-
ly, noneconomic third variables associated with
Because of the interpretive problems with
interregional differences in poverty and abuse
cross-sectional research, longitudinal method-
(e.g., ethnicity, education, culture) are con-
ologies may be able to offer important com-
trolled by focusing on a single community.
plementary evidence. Longitudinal studies of
economic change and adult behavioral disorder A fourth improvement involves the clari-
have employed such dependent variables as fication of the independent variable. "Unem-
suicide, hospitalization for psychological dis- ployment" in individual-level studies may have
order, and surveyed psychological symptoms both static (enduring condition of impover-
and stressful life events. As recently reviewed ishment) and dynamic (adaptation-requiring
by Dooley and Catalano (1980), this body of re- change such as need to hunt for new job)
search commonly finds that disorder rises with meanings. Both Gil (1971) and Light (1973),
undesirable change (e.g., unemployment). Un- for example, report that maltreatment is more
fortunately, there are enough perplexing sub- likely among those families in which the father
group differences and inconsistencies in this experienced unemployment during the preced-
literature to preclude any definitive conclu- ing year. This result is evidence that maltreat-
sions. More important for the present topic, ment may be related to the stress of a recent
such longitudinal methods have not been ap- job loss in addition to or instead of the endur-
plied to the study of child maltreatment. ing condition of unemployment. By using mea-
The present study employs the aggregate sures of economic change, the present study
longitudinal approach in which an economical- unambiguously focuses on shifts in the com-
ly meaningful geographic unit is monitored munity's economy that require adaptation on
the part of its members.
over time using the month as the unit of analy-
sis. This technique improves on cross-sectional Finally, the longitudinal approach used
methods in several ways. First, the definition here permits separation in time of economic
of child abuse varies across geographic units change and reported maltreatment. Thus,
such that reported differences between com- lagged relationships of earlier economic change
munities may be artifacts of definitional and to later maltreatment can be evaluated, making
reporting practices (Starr 1979). But in the possible the identification of those lag intervals
longitudinal approach, little or no variation in for which the relationship is strongest.
definition and reporting is expected in a com-
munity over relatively short periods of time. Based on the cross-sectional analyses of
Any sudden significant change in reporting pro- economic stress and child abuse noted earlier,
cedures (e.g., a change in state law defining and extrapolating from the model suggested
child abuse) would be easily detected as a for the relation of economic change and adult
sharp step change from the base rate of abuse. disorder by Dooley and Catalano (1980), we
offer the following causal pattern as a working
Second, the social class reporting bias model: Net loss of jobs at the community level
mentioned above is removed when a communi-
leads to actual or anticipated individual job
ty is used as its own control, as in time-series
loss and increased parental stress. This stress,
analysis. Assuming the proportion of low-social-in turn, may lead to increased child abuse, par-
status families is unchanging or only very slow- ticularly among families with existing tension
ly changing, any variation in abuse rates must or members predisposed to be violent. Job loss
be attributed to dynamic factors impinging onand attendant material deprivation and loss of
the whole community rather than to reportingsocial status may produce feelings of frustra-
bias.
tion and anger which may be displaced onto
Third, several third-variable counterex- the child. The stress of job loss requires a po-
planations are made less plausible by the longi-tentially arduous chain of coping responses, in-
tudinal aggregate technique. Individual person- cluding arranging for unemployment compen-

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 Steinberg, Catalano, and Dooley 977
sation or welfare, seeking a new job or job Method
retraining, possible relocation, adjusting to loss Measures.-Earlier measurements of the
of former workmates, and adjusting to a decline association between economic conditions and
in standard of living. In combination with the
everyday demands of parenthood, such coping
pathology (e.g., Brenner 1973, 1976) have
drawn several methodological criticisms (Doo-
may tax the vulnerable parent's emotional and
ley & Catalano 1977; Kasl 1979). Included
instrumental resources, reducing the parent's
among these is the contention that the use of
patience with and ability to care for the child.
politically defined populations (e.g., states) is
Furthermore, insofar as job loss results in a
inappropriate when the theory assumes eco-
parent's spending more time at home, the in-
nomically circumscribed communities. Follow-
creased parent-child contact increases the op-
ing the recommendation of the critics (Cata-
portunity for undesirable interaction. Moreover,
job loss may result in individuals who are un-
lano & Dooley 1977), Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (SMSAs) were used in this
accustomed to caring for children being placed
analysis. The SMSAs are geographic units most
in a full-time child-rearing role; the difficulty
easily understood as large central political cities
of this role transition may lead to child mal-
(at least 50,000 persons) and their socially and
treatment. Finally, increased job loss in the
economically dependent suburbs (Klove 1952).
community may affect parents not themselves Two such communities were selected to meet
experiencing joblessness. Changes in the eco-
the requirements of the analytic strategy de-
nomic climate of a community may result in
scribed below. These are the Los Angeles-Long
changed economic expectations and morale,
Beach SMSA (coterminous with Los Angeles
thus modifying the social climate in which
County) and the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden
families function (see Dooley, Catalano, &
Brownell [Note 1] for an illustration of the in- Grove SMSA (coterminous with Orange
County).
teraction of individual stress and community
change). The Los Angeles County maltreatment
The causal pattern outlined above gen- data were provided by the Research and Sta-
erates at least one clear hypotheses: Job loss tistical Services Section of the Los Angeles
is positively associated with subsequent re- County Department of Social Services, which
ported child abuse. As will be detailed in the aggregates monthly reports of abuse and ne-
Methods section, job change in the community glect made to local social service offices in catch-
will be indexed in two ways: changes in the ment areas throughout the county. These local
unemployment rate and changes in the size of offices receive reports from private and public
the work force. (Work force size is a more ac- sources. The Orange County data were pro-
curate but less familiar and less well publicized vided by the Child Abuse Registry of the
measure.) If these two indicators are very high- Orange County Human Services Agency. The
ly correlated, both should be associated in a registry is a central office that aggregates mal-
similar way with abuse, and the two resulting treatment reports from private and public
tests should corroborate each other. Undesir- sources throughout the county.
able economic change (increases in unemploy- Both the Los Angeles County and the
ment or decreases in the size of the work force)
Orange County agencies investigate all abuse
should be positively related to subsequent re- and neglect reports; over 90% of the reports
ported abuse. To the extent that these twomade to each agency are verified as actual
measures are not related, their differential as-
cases of maltreatment as defined under present
sociation with abuse should reflect differences California state law.
in their underlying constructs. A third economic
measure, the interaction of unemployment and The length of the time series was de-
work force size, may also be related to abuse. termined by the first month of available Orange
This last variable will be included for explora- County maltreatment data (February 1975)
tory purposes, although no hypothesis is made and by the last month of available economic
for its association with abuse. data (December 1977). Creating the monthly
change values and the need, described below,
Child neglect is related to child abuse in for 3 months of economic data to follow the
the law but may result from somewhat differ-last month of maltreatment data shortened the
ent economic conditions. Although no hypoth-
analyzed time series to 30 months.
eses are offered, the relationship of neglect with
unemployment, work force size, and their in- Monthly cases of neglect ranged from 20
teraction will also be examined.
to 211 (M = 82.3, SD = 40.3) in Orange

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978 Child Development
County and from 1,171 to 1,731 (M = 1,426, As expected, change in unemployment and
SD = 157) in Los Angeles County. Abuse change in size of the work force were not sig-
ranged from 52 to 236 cases (M = 130, SD = nificantly related over time in either communi-
45.5) and from 240 to 532 (M = 352.5, SD ty. The correlation coefficients were .16 (p >
= 70.5) in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, .05) and -.09 (p > .05) for Orange and Los
respectively. Angeles Counties, respectively. Also as ex-
The economies of the communities were pected, the economies of the two communities
were unrelated at the aggregate level measured
measured with three indicators. The first,
by the economic variables. Change in unem-
monthly unemployment rate, was included for
ployment in the two counties over the 30
comparability with earlier studies concerned
months yielded a coefficient of .31 (p > .05).
with the health impacts of economic change
The relationship for change in labor force was
(Brenner 1976). The unemployment rate has,
however, been criticized as a measure of the only -.18 (p > .05).
ability of an economy to provide jobs (Cata- An interaction between the unemployment
lano 1979; Ginzberg 1977). The unemployment rate and size of the work force was also in-
rate, as currently defined, is that proportion ofcluded to allow a test of the "inferred inade-
the potential labor force which considers itself quacy" hypothesis (Cohn 1978; Dooley et al.,
in the job market but which cannot find suit- Note 1). Inferred inadequacy implies that un-
able employment. The unemployed, therefore, employed individuals are more likely to attrib-
includes those who desire to return to the labor ute their misfortunes to personal deficiencies
force after a voluntary withdrawal, those who when the size of the work force is expanding
do not wish to take jobs considered below their than when it is contracting. For reasons dis-
expectations, and those who have been fired or cussed below, each dependent and independent
laid off. The unemployment rate may, and variable was differenced so that the values used
often does, increase in the same month that in the analysis measure change from month to
the number of persons actually working also month. The differenced unemployment and
increases and vice versa. work force variables suggest inferred inade-
quacy when both have the same sign. The
While a problematic measure of actual most obvious example is when both are posi-
economic performance, the unemployment ratetive (more persons unable to find work when
may influence the popular perception of eco- the labor force is growing), but the opposite
nomic conditions. Because it may be viewed assituation (lower unemployment and reduced
a measure of job opportunity and is widely re-work force) also suggests that potential work-
ported, the rate may have an effect on disorder
ers do not think they are competitive enough
by affecting the expectations of economicallyto justify continued job seeking. The interac-
marginal groups.
tion of differenced unemployment rate and
A second economic indicator, size of the work force size will, therefore, yield a positive
work force, was included in the analyses tovalue when inferred inadequacy should be high
measure the actual performance of the econ- but a negative value when the variables have
omy. The data are widely available for metro-the intuitively expected opposite signs.
politan areas and have been used in similar On six of the nine occasions (of a possible
studies (e.g., Catalano 1979). 30) when the interaction term was positive for
Unemployment ranged from 7% to 10.7% Orange County, both unemployment and the
(M = 8.9%; SD = 1.0%) in Los Angeles Coun-labor force increased. Eight of the 10 positive
ty and from 5.6% to 10.5% (M = 7.8, SD = interaction values for Los Angeles County were
produced by increases in both unemployment
1.4%) in Orange County. The range for work and work force.
force size in Los Angeles County was from
2,981,000 to 3,238,000 (M = 3,101,000; SD A positive association between the inter-
= 62,000) and from 698,300 to 884,900 (M action term and abuse or neglect would sup-
- 770,700; SD = 61,000) in Orange County. port the inferred inadequacy hypothesis. An
1 Two months of missing maltreatment data for Los Angeles were replaced with the series
means for the analysis reported here. The analyses were also conducted with the mean of the
monthly changes substituted in both counties' maltreatment data for the missing 2 months.
A third analysis with the missing months deleted was also conducted. All three approaches
yielded essentially the same results. The approach which yielded the most conservative coeffi-
cients is reported.

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 Steinberg, Catalano, and Dooley 979
inverse relationship would suggest that com- for Los Angeles County to confirm a hypothe-
plementary shifts between unemployment and sized relationship between economic expansion
work force size (regardless of direction) affect and the incidence of industrial accidents. While
the etiology of the dependent measure. The that analysis was one-way in that Orange Coun-
latter finding would be interpreted as evidence ty was used only as a comparison community,
that economic change per se, rather than di- the analysis which follows will be two-way.
rectional change, may precipitate abuse or Economic as well as abuse data are available
neglect. for both areas, and each county will serve as
a comparison for the other. The hypotheses
Analyses.--Despite increasing interest in will, in effect, be tested in both communities.
longitudinal correlational designs (Cook &
Campbell 1979), no convention for time-series To further reduce the likelihood of spur-
hypothesis testing has emerged (Mark 1979). ious inferences of association due to time ef-
The advantage of a longitudinal over a cross- fects, cross-correlation techniques will be em-
sectional approach is that the former controls ployed (Catalano & Dooley 1979a; Mark 1979).
for "place effects" or community characteristics Cross-correlation involves computing a synchro-
which, when omitted from the analyses, may nous coefficient of association (i.e., both vari-
lead to spurious inferences of association be- ables measured in the same time period) and
tween variables (Firebaugh 1980). The dis- an equal number of lag (i.e., dependent vari-
advantage of longitudinal analyses is that "time able temporally following the independent vari-
effects" may produce spurious associations. Two able) and lead (i.e., dependent variable tem-
variables may be related over time because of porally preceding the independent variable)
similar growth processes or because both are coefficients. The resulting pattern of coefficients
driven by a third, omitted variable. The typical should conform to the temporal assumption of
approach to controlling time effects has been the theory being tested. If the theory suggests,
to remove any temporally regular behavior, for example, that the effect of change in the
such as trends or cycles, from the dependent independent variable is delayed, there should
and independent variables (Brenner 1973; be greater than chance significant coefficients
Catalano & Dooley 1979a). The assumption among the lag coefficients and chance or fewer
underlying this approach is that any regular among the remainder. The cross-correlation
behavior is a source of potential spurious as- method reduces the likelihood of capitalizing
sociation and should be controlled. While this on chance, tests the reverse causation hypothe-
detrending and deseasonalizing technique is ansis (not a strong rival in the case of economic
effective control for regularly occurring con- change and child abuse), and detects trends
founds, it offers no control over third variables and cycles not controlled by the inclusion of a
which are temporally random or are too subtly comparison community.
patterned to be detected by simple observation
The "model" fitted to the data by this
or statistical inspection.
method is: Yt = aX1t + bX2t-i + e, where Yt
One strategy for minimizing place and = the incidence of abuse or neglect in the test
both regular and irregular time effects has been community at time t, X1 = the incidence of
offered by Catalano (1979). The strategy uses abuse or neglect in the comparison community
longitudinal data to reduce place effects but at time t, X2 = economic change variable at
includes a comparison community in the anal- lag, and e = the residual or error term. This
yses to control for such time effects as weather equation is computed seven times, with the
cycles, societal trends, and data-recording pol- economic variable changing from a 3-month
icies. The technique uses multiple-regression lead through the synchronous configuration,
routines to measure the longitudinal associationthrough three lag positions. The stress theory
between a community's dependent and inde- assumed by this analysis implies that the co-
pendent variables after removing variation eith- efficient for X2 (i.e., b in the above model)
er shares with the same dependent variableshould be significantly greater than zero in the
measured in a comparison community. The re- synchronous and/or one or more of the lagged
sults of the analysis can be interpreted as theconfigurations. This significant effect should
effect the independent or the suspected causal measurably increase the variance explained
variable has on the dependent variable when (R2) by the comparison community alone.
other independent time effects are controlled.
Dependence among error terms from time-
For example, Catalano (1979) used series regression is common and can lead to
Orange County as a comparison communityinaccurate estimates of the confidence intervals

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980 Child Development
for the regression coefficients (Mark 1979). association. Any variation in abuse or neglect
The D-W test (Durbin & Watson 1950, 1951) shared by test and comparison communities
was therefore applied to all residuals from re- due to the causal effect of similar economic ex-
gressions which yielded significant coefficients.periences is removed. The tested association is
The D-W statistic indicates whether values of peculiar to the test community and may con-
residuals at time t are positively or negatively siderably underestimate the true effect of eco-
related to the residuals' values at time t - 1. nomic change on abuse and neglect. If an as-
The Q statistic (McCleary & Hay 1980), based sociation is found, however, the likelihood of
on 12 lags of the residuals from significant re- its being spurious because of either place or
time
gressions, was also computed to detect any effects is remote.
higher-order relationships among the residuals
(i.e., residuals at time t related to residuals at
Results
time t - 2 ... n).
The cross-correlations for child abuse and
Because the theory implies that change in
neglect are shown in tables 1 and 2, respec-
the economy affects change in the incidence of
tively. The cross-correlations between the de-
abuse and neglect, each of the variables was
differenced. In addition to its theoretical con- pendent and independent variables are arrayed
vertically from a lead of 3 months (dependent
sistency, differencing has the advantage of
variable temporally preceding the indepen-
further reducing the likelihood of spurious as-
dent), through the synchronous configuration,
sociation caused by shared trends (Plosser &
Schwert, Note 2). to a lag of 3 months (dependent variable tem-
porally following the independent). It should
A two-way comparison, cross-correlated be noted that each R2 in the cross-correlation
analysis of differenced time series subjected to is for the effect of both the comparison com-
the D-W statistic is a very conservative test of munity and of one configuration of an economic

TABLE 1

EXPLAINED VARIATION (R2) FOR FORMULAE PREDICTING CHILD ABUSEa

TOTAL R2b FOR CONTROL

AND

Unem- Work Inter-

ployment Force action

Los Angeles County abuse:c

Dependent variable:
Preceding:
3 months .............. 29 30 31
2 months .............. (-) 28 (-) 29 (-) 31
1 month ............... 27 29 27
Synchronous ............. (-)30 29 (-)29
Following:
1 month ................ 33 27 32
2 months .............. 27 (-) 34d* 28
3 months .............. (-) 29 30 (-) 31
Orange County abuse:e
Dependent variable:
Preceding:
3 months .............. 37* 28 30
2 months .............. (-)28 (-) 27 (-) 27
1 month ............... (-) 28 33 (-) 28
Synchronous ............. 27 (-)28 (-) 28
Following:
1 month ............... (-) 29 27 )-)33
2 months .............. 30 (-) 35f* (-)27
3 months .............. (-) 29 (-) 28 (-) 29
a Inverse relationships for economic variable indicated by (-).
b Adjusted for degrees of freedom.
0 Control = Orange County abuse; R2 for control only = 30%.
d No error term dependence at p > .01.
"e Control = Los Angeles County abuse; R2 for control only = 30%.
f No error term dependence at p > .05.
"* Regression coefficient for economic term nonzero at p < .05 (one-tailed test, n = 30

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variable. Because the R2 is adjusted for lost
degrees of freedom when an economic variable
is added to the comparison community in the
equation, the explained variance for several
configurations will be smaller than for the com-
parison community alone.
The hypothesis that abuse is inversely re-
lated to size of the work force is supported by
both the Los Angeles County and the Orange
County findings. The patterns of association
which emerge when change in the work force
is added to the control variable are very similar
for both communities.
Thirty percent of the variance in either
county's incidence of abuse is associated with
the control variable. Change in the work force
adds 4% and 5% to explained variation for Los
Angeles and Orange Counties, respectively, at
lag 2. The regression coefficients are significant
at the 5% confidence level, and no association
among error terms was detected by either the
D-W or Q statistics. No significant associations
appear among the eight lead and synchronous
configurations, while two appear among the
six where an effect was hypothesized.
TABLE 2
Steinberg, Catalano, and Dooley 981
It should be understood that the 4% or 5%
increase in explained variation is a very con-
servative measure of the strength of the asso-
ciation between work force change and abuse.
As noted above, much of the variation in abuse
attributed to the control variable may be
"caused" by economic forces present in both
the test and comparison communities. The ac-
curate interpretation of the added R2 is that it
is proportion of the variance peculiar to the
test community which is associated with work
force change. The test allows rejection (at the
p < .05 level) of the null hypothesis of no as-
sociation but offers no definitive estimate of
the strength of the association.
The hypothesized relationship between
unemployment and abuse is not supported.
Neither county yielded a pattern of coefficients
which would suggest that unemployment in-
fluences abuse after place and time effects have
been controlled.
The findings are equivocal concerning the
relationship between neglect and size of the
work force. The Los Angeles County data show
a 33% increase in explained variation in the

EXPLAINED VARIATION (R2) FOR FORMULAE PREDICTING CHILD NEGLECTa

TOTAL R2b FOR CONTROL

AND

Unem- Work Inter-

ployment Force action

Los Angeles County Neglect:c

Dependent variable:
Preceding:
3 months ................ 8 (-) 8 10
2 months ............... 10 (-) 17 20
1 month................... (-) 21 8 (-) 13
Synchronous ............. (-)11 44d* (-) 15
Following:
1 month ................ 15 8 34
2 months .............. (-) 7 (-) 18 (-) 8
3 months............... 8 (-) 8 (-) 8
Orange County neglect:e
Dependent variable:
Preceding:
3 months .............. 12 (-) 8 18
2 months .............. (-) 9 9 (-)15
1 month ............... (-) 8 (-) 11 (-) 8
Synchronous ............. (-) 8 9 8
Following:
1 month ............... 14 (-) 13 15
2 months .............. (-) 8 8 (-) 16
3 months ............... 8 8 (-) 5
a Inverse relationships for economic variable indicated by (-).
b Adjusted for degrees of freedom.
c Control = Orange County neglect; R2 for control only = 11%.
d No error term dependence at P > .05.
e Control = Los Angeles County neglect; R2 for control only = 11%.
"* Regression coefficient for economic term nonzero at p < .01 (two-taile

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982 Child Development
synchronous configuration, but there is no rep- associations, thus eliminating correlations sig-
lication in the Orange County findings. No re- nificant by chance in these data. As a third
lationship was found between unemployment constraint, the D-W test was conducted to rule
and neglect in either community. out autocorrelation in the test series. Fourth,
and finally, the entire procedure was fully rep-
The pattern of relationships for abuse and
licated in another community.
the interaction term shows no support for the
inferred inadequacy hypothesis. While both The results for exploratory analysis of eco-
counties show the strongest associations with nomic change and child neglect are less clear
the interaction term at lag 2, neither reaches than are those for abuse. This may be due, in
significance, and, more problematically, the di- part, to the fact that neglect may be more
rections of the relationships are contradictory. likely than abuse to occur over an extended
period of time, thus lessening the likelihood of
The relationship between neglect and the
finding a clear, temporally specific relationship
interaction term offers no clear support for the
between economic change and reported ne-
inferred inadequacy hypothesis. The Los An-
glect. The significant contemporaneous relation-
geles County pattern suggests that neglect in-
ship between work force size and neglect in
creases when inferred inadequacy should be
Los Angeles County and the lagged relation-
most common. A more parsimonious explana-
ship between the interaction term and neglect
tion might be that, as the work force increases,
for this same region have a meaningful inter-
more persons are attracted from home to the
pretation. The positive sign suggests that, as
labor market. If these persons are unsuccessful
jobs become more plentiful, more and more
in finding work, the unemployment rate will
parents are away from home working or look-
also increase. Prolonged job hunting may lead
ing for work, which results in decreased atten-
to unsupervised children and, in turn, to an in-
crease in reported neglect. The lack of rein-
tion to children and increased reported ne-
glect. Since these findings were not replicated
forcement by the Orange County findings, how-
in the Orange County data, however, we can-
ever, makes the Los Angeles County findings
suggestive at best.
not place great confidence in them. On the
other hand, the Orange County neglect series
was highly volatile (large SD relative to its
Discussion
small mean) and may have been an impossible
Conclusions.-Declines in the work force replication case.
are significantly related to reported child abuse Counterexplanations, future research, and
in two metropolitan communities. This findingpolicy implications.-Several alternative ex-
is consistent with the hypothesis that unde-
planations are consistent with the findings that
sirable economic change causes family stress,
decreases in the work force precede increases
resulting subsequently in child abuse.
in child abuse. The explanation derived from
Although the variance explained in child our working model is that job loss on the ag-
abuse by work force change is small, it should gregate level signifies that some or many in-
be noted that this study was not designed to dividual families experience increased stress,
measure the actual amount of variability inwhich results in more frequent abuse, reflected
abuse explained by undesirable economicin the aggregate abuse records.
change. Rather, the analysis tests the null hy-
pothesis that the two variables are unrelated. The first alternative explanation is com-
plementary to the stress model. Decreases in
This null hypothesis has been rejected under
very conservative constraints. First, the use ofthe work force may entail a shift in child care
from those familiar with the role to those who
a neighboring community's abuse time series as
a control probably represents overcontrol. Notare less familiar. For example, if an economic
only does this technique control for shareddownturn involves laying off disproportionately
variance in the abuse and economic changemore men than women, women may increas-
data caused by various trends and seasonalingly leave child care to enter the job market
shifts but also no doubt removes some variabil- to offset the loss of their husbands' incomes.
ity in abuse owing to economic change that isThe net effect of such adjustments could be
common to both communities. to increase the proportion of child care time
by those with less experience, skill, and pa-
The second constraint is the use of the tience in caring for the child. Normal difficul-
cross-correlation procedure, which reveals any ties in child management and discipline may
nonsensical, abuse-preceding-economic change provoke more abuse from such replacement

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 Steinberg, Catalano, and Dooley 983
caregivers than from their more experienced procedures). To be viable, such a third vari-
predecessors. If the household budget is still able would have to significantly reduce the
unbalanced after these role changes, both the observed association between economic change
primary and the replacement caretakers may and child abuse when introduced into the equa-
be under worsening stress, provoking still more tion without being very highly correlated with
abuse. abuse in the control community. These require-
ments imply the simultaneous effect of different
The remaining three alternative explana-
third variables operating separately in the two
tions, unlike the first alternative, all involve
test communities. Such an explanation is much
possible confounds or errors. The second ex-
less parsimonious and plausible than the stress
planation is that the true incidence of child model.
abuse is invariant and only reported abuse
varies as a function of work force change. As A fourth alternative is that the association
with other indices of social problems, such as found here with aggregate data does not apply
suicide and mental disorder, the verified cases to individuals. That is, the individual families
of child abuse represent a small proportion of who are producing increases in reported abuse
estimated true abuse (Starr 1979). Official re- are not necessarily the ones experiencing job
ports of child abuse lead to estimates of inci- loss or undesirable economic stress. The incor-
dence ranging from 41,000 to 167,000 in 1973. rect extrapolation from aggregate findings to
But a survey of random households leads to individual-level terms, called the ecological fal-
estimates of actual abuse ranging from 1.4 to lacy, has been discussed elsewhere (Firebaugh
1.9 million (Starr 1979). Downward shifts in 1978). But even if these data cannot be in-
the work force may provide conditions under terpreted in individual terms, the aggregate-
which existing abuse is less well concealed or level phenomenon is not invalidated and does
is exaggerated beyond the threshold of notice merit interest and understanding in macroso-
of neighbors, medical personnel, and friends. ciological terms. Furthermore, recent research
Alternatively, adverse economic conditions may by Garbarino and Sherman (1980) indicates
lead to increased surveillance on the part of that individuals who do live in areas identified,
responsible agencies, leading to increased re- on the aggregate level, as high-risk neighbor-
ports. Explanations in this vein do not appear hoods do in fact experience more stress and
more parsimonious or more plausible than the have fewer social support resources than do
extrafamilial stress explanation but cannot be their counterparts residing in low-risk neigh-
ruled out with available knowledge. The re- borhoods. To determine whether the findings
search necessary to check this "uncovering" of the present study apply to individuals re-
possibility requires estimates of true incidence quires individual-level prospective research. As
of abuse (possibly through repeated epidemio- a practical matter, such a panel study would
logic surveys; e.g., see Catalano & Dooley need to be large in scale since child abuse is
[1979b]). Such a data series could be com- relatively rare. Moreover, such a study is sub-
pared with public agency counts of reported ject to severe ethical problems. Since abuse is
abuse to test the assumption that the ratio of illegal, the protection of any child discovered
reported to true incidence is invariant. If this to be abused and the protection of subject con-
ratio is variable, it could be regressed on the fidentiality and privacy may come into conflict.
economic predictors to test the hypothesis that If such a study could be mounted, however,
reporting varies as a function of economic it would offer an opportunity to study the in-
climate. teraction of individual-level stress (including
job loss) with changes in community-level eco-
A third explanation is always present in
nomic conditions (see Dooley et al. [Note 1]
this kind of research. It is possible that some
for an example of this methodology). Such a
unmeasured variable, not indexed by abuse in
strategy would also permit the study of person-
the control community, operated to cause co-
variation in both work force and abuse in the ality, intrafamilial, and extrafamilial economic
variables, separately and in interaction with
target community. The plausibility of this third-
each other. Such an approach might begin to
variable explanation is greatly reduced by the
resolve the sterile dispute over the relative
simultaneous replication strategy of this study.
amount of variance explained by each of these
This sort of counterexplanation invites devel-
factors and lead to fruitful investigation of the
opment of a theory which might specify some
ways in which such variables interact.
such explanatory variable (e.g., unexpectedly
rapid shifts in demographic composition or Until such an ideal study can be con-
changes in formal or informal abuse-reporting
ducted, two variants on the present approach

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 984 Child Development
warrant follow-up. First, if the data are avail- Brenner, M. H. Mental illness and the economy.
able, the sample could be disaggregated by Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press,
such factors as social status, employment, and 1973.
family structure. For example, neglect may be Brenner, M. H. Estimating the social costs of na-
more common among employed, single-parent tional economic policy: implications for men-
families, while unemployed, two-parent fami- tal and physical health and criminal aggression
lies might be expected to produce more abuse (Publication No. 78-6660, Joint Economic
as a function of changing work force conditions Committee Paper No. 5). Washington, D.C.:
(see Hetherington [1979] for a discussion of Government Printing Office, 1976.
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ple of the subjects reported as abusing in the the case of manufacturing accident injuries.
aggregate study could be investigated retro- American Journal of Public Health, 1979, 69,
spectively through archival data or interviews 789-794.
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economic situation (e.g., full employment, look- depressed mood and stressful life events in a
ing for work, unemployed but not looking for metropolitan community. Journal of Health
work) at the time of abuse. Such personal cir- and Social Behavior, 1977, 18, 292-307.
cumstances could then be compared to the pre- Catalano, R., & Dooley, D. The economy as stress-
vailing economic situation in the community or: a sectoral analysis. Review of Social Econ-
during the same time period. Although such omy, 1979, 37, 175-188. (a)
retrospective studies based on samples selected Catalano, R., & Dooley, D. Does economic change
on the dependent variables are generally un- provoke or uncover behavioral disorder? A pre-
satisfactory, they may have to suffice until pro- liminary test. In L. Ferman & J. Gordus
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