FOCUS ON AG

Written by Kent Thiesse

Farm Management Analyst and Senior Vice President, MinnStar Bank
August 14, 2023

USDA REPORT LOWERS 2023 CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

The latest USDA Crop Report that was released on August 11 projects an increase in the average U.S. corn and
soybean yields in 2023 compared to last year. However, the projected 2023 national average yield levels for
both corn and soybeans were reduced from the USDA yield estimates a month ago in July. The August yield
and production estimates were based on crop conditions as of August 1 that resulted from a National Ag
Statistics Service (NASS) survey of over 15,000 crop producers in early August. The August USDA national
average yield and total 2023 projections were slightly below the average estimates by grain marketing analysts,
while the USDA projections for U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks were slightly above the grain industry
estimates.

The August 11 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2023 total U.S. corn production at 15.11 billion bushels,
which would be an increase of over 10 percent from the 2022 production level of just under 13.8 billion
bushels. The 2023 projected U.S. corn production compares to other recent corn production levels of 15.1
billion bushels in 2021, 14.1 billion bushels in 2020, 13.6 billion bushels in 2019, and 14.4 billion bushels in
2018. The record U.S. corn production was 15.2 billion bushels in 2016. USDA is estimating the total U.S. corn
acreage harvested for grain in 2023 at 86.3 million acres, which compares to 79.2 million acres in 2022.

The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2023 at 175.1 bushels per acre, which is a
decline of 2.4 bushels per acre from the NASS yield estimate in July. The 2023 yield projection compares to
173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, the record U.S. corn yield of 176.7 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per
acre in 2020, 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019, and 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018. There are widespread
differences in 2023 corn yield estimates across the U.S., depending on growing conditions in the drought-
stricken States.

USDA is estimating a record 2023 corn yield in Indiana, along with increased corn yields for the year in Iowa,
Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota compared to 2022 yields. 2023 corn yields are expected to decline in
Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin compared to a year ago. USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2023 average
corn yield at 203 bushel per acre, which would be just shy of the record statewide yield of 205 bushels per acre
in 2021 and compares to a final corn yield of 200 bushels per acre in 2022. The Indiana corn yield for 2023 is
projected at the record level of 195 bushels per acre, which compares to 190 bushels per acre in 2022.

USDA projects Minnesota’s 2023 average corn yield at 183 bushels per acre, which would represent a 7 percent
decrease from the average corn yield of 195 bushels per acre in 2022. The 2023 statewide average corn yield
compares toother previous statewide corn yields of 178 bushels per acre in 2021, 192 bushels per acre in 2020,
and 173 bushels per acre in 2019. The State record corn yield remains at 197 bushels per acre in 2017. There is
a wide range of expected corn yields across Minnesota depending on timely planting, favorable growing
conditions, and drought conditions in portions of the State throughout the Summer.

Other States impacted by drought conditions during this year’s growing season include Illinois with a 2023 corn
yield estimate of 201 bushels per acre compared to 214 bushels per acre in 2022, Wisconsin at 166 bushels per
acre compared to 180 bushels per acre in 2022, and Missouri at 143 bushels per acre compared to 161 bushels
per acre in 2022. On the other hand, the 2023 average corn yield in Nebraska is projected at 184 bushels per
acre, which would be an increase of 12 percent from the drought-stricken yield of 165 bushels per acre in 2022.
The estimated 2023 corn yield in Ohio is 190 bushels per acre compared to 187 bushels per acre in 2022, South
Dakota at 145 bushels per acre compared to 132 bushels per acre in 2022, and North Dakota at 130 bushels per
acre compared to 131 bushels per acre in 2022. Other States with significant estimated increases in 2023 corn
yields compared to a year ago include Texas, Kentucky, and Kansas.
The USDA Report on August 11 estimated total 2023 U.S. soybean production at just over 4.2 billion bushels,
which would be down slightly from the 2022 production of slightly over 4.27 billion bushels and would be
below the current record production level of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018. USDA is now estimating the 2023
harvested soybean acreage at 82.7 million acres, which is down from 86.3 million acres in 2022. USDA is
projecting the 2023 U.S. average soybean yield at 50.9 bushels per acre, which is an increase from the 2022
national average yield of 49.5 bushels per acre. The 2023 estimated soybean yield compares to other recent
national average soybean yields of 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020, 47.4 bushels
per acre in 2019, and 51.6 bushels per acre in 2018. The record U.S. soybean yield was 51.9 bushels per acre in
2016.

The recent USDA report lists six States that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in 2023,
including the important production States of Indiana, and Ohio. The estimated 2023 soybean yield in Indiana is
60 bushels per acre compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2022; and Ohio is projected at 57 bushels per acre
compared to 55 bushels per acre in 2022. Iowa’s 2023 soybean yield is estimated at 58 bushels per acre, down
slightly from 58.5 bushels per acre in 2022 and below the statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021,
Soybean yield estimates for 2023 are expected to increase in Nebraska at 58 bushels per acre compared to 49
bushels per acre in 2022, and in South Dakota at 42 bushels per acre, compared to 38 bushels per acre in 2022.

Minnesota’s 2023 average soybean yield is estimated at 49 bushels per acre, which compares to 50 bushels per
acre in 2022, 47 bushels per acre in 2021, and 49 bushels per acre in 2020. The statewide record soybean yield
was 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. Projected 2023 average soybean yields in other States include Illinois at 62
bushels per acre compared 63 bushels per acre in 2022, Wisconsin at 50 bushels per acre compared to 54
bushels per acre in 2022, and North Dakota at 33 bushels per acre compared to 35 bushels per acre in 2022.

AUGUST 11 WASDE REPORT

The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 11.
This report included the 2023 estimated U.S. corn production of 15.11 billion bushels and harvested corn
acreage of 86.3 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 175.1 bushels per acre. The
2023-24 corn ending stocks are now projected at just over 2.2 billion bushels, which was a decline of 60 million
bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2022-23 were adjusted to just under 1.46 billion
bushels, which was increased by 55 million bushels from the July estimate. These projected corn carryout levels
compare to other recent corn ending stock levels of 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22 and 1.23 billion bushels in
2020-21.

USDA is projecting an average on-farm corn price for the 2023-24 marketing year, which extends from
September 1, 2023, through August 31, 2024, at $4.90 per bushel, which was increased by $.10 per bushel from
the July estimate. The 2022-23 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2023, is
now estimated at $6.60 per bushel. These estimates compare to recent national average prices of $6.00 per
bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20, and $3.61 per bushel for 2018-
19. The closing December corn futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the August 11
report was $4.87 per bushel, which compares to $6.42 per bushel following the WASDE report on August 12,
2022.

The recent WASDE report projected the 2023 U.S. soybean production level at just over 4.2 billion bushels,
based on 82.7 million harvested acres and an estimated U.S. soybean yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. The 2023-
24 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 245 million bushels, which was a decrease of 55 million bushels from
the July WASDE report. The 2022-23 soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels. USDA is
now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $12.70 per bushel and at
$14.20 per bushel for the 2022-23 marketing year. This compares to national average prices of $13.30 per
bushel for 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20, and $8.47 per bushel in 2018-
19.

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Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Sr. Vice President,
MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone --- (507) 381-7960)
E-mail --- kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com) Web Site --- http://www.minnstarbank.com/