Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • S2.2Weather Impacts On Single-Vehicle Truck Crash Injury Severity

    Uploaded by

    Melese
    12 views9 pages

    Original Title

    S2.2Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    12 views9 pages

    S2.2Weather Impacts On Single-Vehicle Truck Crash Injury Severity

    Uploaded by

    Melese

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 9
    a @ 18R-01334; No of Pages 9 Joua of Safety Hesearch (2018) 090 ea ELSEVIER Contents ints avaiable at Sconcabirct Journal of Safety Research journal homepage: www.elzevier.com/locateliar Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity Bhaven Naik, ® Li-Wei Tung, ° Shanshan Zhao, © Aemal J. Khattak “* “Deparment of il rine Oo Univers. 1 Stocker ene thn 0 45701, te Soe © Deer gin! rarpaetion Dr 195 Brat #70, Der, CO 2202, nie See * ners rape Cne,Unversty f Nebasa 3300 Whiter Resear Cone, 200 Vn Set ala NEGBSE-OSI, United Stes ARTICLE INFO ewe 26 anu 206 ecpled 22 une 2016, ier Random prams oder lt model ABSTRACT introduction The focus of his pape is on asain the Feasbity o agregatng data fom parte Sources to Investigate the relationship between single-vehcle trek cash ijuy severity and detailed weather conditions. Specially this paper present: (2) methodology that combines detale 15nn weather station data with ‘rash and roadway daa, an (b) an empitcal investigation af the elects of weather on crash-eated injury Seventies of singe-vebicle truck cashes. Medhad: Random parameters ordinal and multinomial regression models were used oinvestgae crash nur severy under aierent weather conitons, taking inc acount ‘the ineivicual unobserved heterogeneity. The adopted methodology allowed consideration af environmental, roadway, and cimatetelatedvarablesin single-vehice truck rash njury severity Reuland ccs: Results Showed sha wind speed, ain, humidity and ai termperature Were inked wih single-vehice tuck cash injury Severs. Greater recaréed wind speed aed to the Sever of injuries in ingle-wehice track crashes in general Rain and warmee ar temperature were linke to more severe cash ines single-vehice ruc ershes while higher eves of humic were linked to Jess sever inures Random parameters ordered logit and multinomial log respecivey, revealed some nvidual heterogeneity inthe data and showee thainterating comprehensive ‘weather ata wih crash data provided usefl insights into fctors associated withsngle-vehie ruckrash injury Severity. Pratl apptcains: The research provided a practical method that combined comprehensive 15-min ‘weather tation data with crash and roadway data, thereby providing useful insights ino crash inury severity of single- vehicle trucks Thos insights are usefl for urre ruck river educational programs and fr track soety in dierent weather conatons. {©2016 National Safety Counc and Elsevier Al rights reserved, | Jatroduction Department of Roads (NDOR), a total of 2017 truck-involved crashes ‘were reported in 2011, resulting in 33 fatalities and approximately The US. population i growing, accompanied with an increase in the 94 injuries, Such statistics underscore the need to further investigate consumption of goods—trends that have increased the demand for _truck-involved crashes at be tion system moved 16 billion tons The focus ofthis paper ison illustrating the feasibility of combining transportation. The US. transp Ine national and state levels, of goods in 2009, a quantity thatis expected ta inerease to 27 billion data from disparate sources to investigate the relationship between tons by 2040 (US. Dept. of Commerce, 2012). Trucks are one of the det led weather conditions (recorded by weather stations and reported dominant mades of freight sransportation; nearly all goods consumed in 15-min intervals) and injury severitiesin sngle-vehiele truck crashes. inthe US. are ransported by truck at some point. Substantial volumes Specifically, this paper presents: (a) a methodology that combines of truck traffic, coupled with the large size and unique operational detailed 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, characteristics, contribute to crashes, injuries, and fatalities reported and (b) an empirical investigation of the effects of weather on crash on US. highways. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety related injury severities of single-vehicle truck crashes. The adopted ‘Administration (NHTSA), 3380 persons were killed and 74000 injured methodology allowed consideration of environmental, roadway, and 25 a result of the 286,000 police-teported truck crashes in 2009 climate related variables—wind speed was considered ranging from 0 (NHTSA, 2009). According to records obtained from the Nebraska to 60 mph, relative humidity from OX to 100%, temperatute from =16 “F to 100 °F, and weather (at the time of the crash) in eight — . Aiteret categories (ex, rain, snows clear) ne mena ator a 3508 Wher Kesar Cater. 2200 Vin Steins.” The organization of the remainder of the study is as follows. ‘alos aoc eu (8 Na, We Tung deve Section 2 presents the reviewed literature and Section 3 describes (LW Tun shansbannacexmaem S Zoo) Hatkwunlsdy (Al Kita) collected data and the methodology for combining weather data with ped ora 101951201805005 902249750 2016 Nason Sty Coe and Chev dA gh ese Please cite this article as: Naik B, etal, Weather impacts on single-veicle truck crash injury severity, Journal of Safety Research (2016), hitp|/ @xdoiorg/10.1016jjsr2016.06.005 2 ‘aket Jer SR (2015) ee crash and roadway data, Section 4 introduces summary statistics for the data and regression models used inthe analysis. Section 5 provides the crash injury severity modeling and results. A discussion ofthe results ‘and conclusions ate offered in Section 6, 2 Literature review In comparison with passenger vehicles, freight trucks ae large, have ‘unique operational characteristics and have relatively higher center of| _ravity, Because ofthe larger size and higher center of gravity, trucks are more susceptible to weather-involved crashes suchas rollovers due to high winds. As a consequence, several State Departments of Transporta- tion (DOTS, eg, Idaho DOT, Montana DOT, and Nevada DOT) alert truck “rivers when high wind andjor winter weather conditions are detected Within their jurisdictions (Goodwin, 2003), From a methodological standpoint, a variety of research has been ‘dedicated to modeling crash frequency and injury severity as related specifically to single vehicle truck crashes. Table I provides a summary ofthese previous stdiesin terms of research contribution, models used, and specific variables included {independent and cependent). Three _general observations can be made from Table 1. First, there are limited Studies that have explcitiy considered some kind of weather information (Le, Chen, Cal & Wolshon, 2009; Mulinazzi etal, 2009; 101 Rescot,asttia, Hovey, Li, & Schrock, 2008; Young, Liesman, 2007). 102 Second. in most of the studies that considered weather conditions, 203 ‘weather information was extracted from police rash reports. Weather 08 information ona crash report may be subject to accuracy issues as the 1 recorded conditions may be what were perceived by the person filing. 0: the crash report and not the actual weather conditions atthe time of 10? ‘rash. Additionally, weather information on almost all crash reports is 104 genera in nature an frequently does not quantity or categorize magn 109 tudes of weather conditions. As an example, Kecojevic and Radomsky 120 (2004) and Chen etal, (2008) reported a positive relationship between 121 ‘wind and truck crashes, However, the wind condition (available fom. 132 crash investigation reports) was stated simply as “windy” rather than 133 asa specific speed (or range) in miles per hour. Mt ‘Third, the studies that considered weather conditions at a catego- sized magnitude focused on investigating the relationship between weather conditions (mostly wind) and crash types. Young and Liesman (2007) employed a binary iogit model to estimate the impact ‘of wind sped on truckoverturing crashes using weather data collected {rom local weather stations, Results showed that weather station data ‘oul be used as.a predictor of overturning type truck crashes. However, ‘the authors did not investigate a relationship between win speed and 22 abet Cosh inj every stad singe vie ack ran Tate Resach Religie oes oe Independent Depend shan nd Gvber (1080) Exablsied resondprbetaeen te aamberoftmiccmvavedMulapeineartegesion, Passon afc carci rashes decd pc yer at section agg we ae and regression sometneareenice romance Macau, Wage Rat, Esablshed empl etonshpe between the number of olson serssion Te characters creates ad Dais (192) rcksnvaled acdents per ea with rat and groetic omer earcertes vacabies eu (1994 alted the pefomnance of regression mode ia Poisonseyeson zyoinated —Techaraterstes crasheates, fstabishng elatonship becween ack tse nd Polson native inomialmax geomet characters rome design ora etons ertooe (0909) Seve and vide octupaney and assessed os severely hatactenstes eer seveiy inured occupant ferences between trek nd nonTock haraenstie Duncan Kalak and Euan he pact of vaaus facta injaiesto Orde pri Roadway condone try Cour (1959) passenger ar accounts and expla facts nMuenciog chatacters ever seveety Fury levels rear-ne casos haters stk Scie and ‘teipted to undetstand how tuck iver behaviors vehicle Bir probit Ceatecareceies vehi ty “args (2003) fatre snd crash vets insce age roloves td ‘harass river seveiy ccupane nurs nigel cases ‘haracersie Cold nd Retin (2004) Examined ne condone ee lctons tat ware Binomial eat Ready ondtions, atic crash Tinted orc woe rah ates, arate ever regency taratenste Hiss (2008) Established 2 relonship Beene cient equenyand_— Poisson repression negative Trae News «rash tee wan Swedish al cose ‘roms fregeney orashadh Neier, Explored te iferences between ban and nual dsver ulna cee probably Geomelicchracariics nj Sanka. and Injunes oot pasenger-vence and Ire ever sevecty Manneig (2005) igure) merashes tht vole lage racks Youngand Lean” Deydoysainetatie ofl iat concnes vetring _Binaty logit Cethehacsceisc wind Crashes (2007) elit vei ash eords in Wyoming to eased wind ‘a Speeds at eatby weather stations nero (2008) Expo te development fa madl acu predic the Mulvate nese regresion __Cashehracerniy, taic_Cathles esate (2009) Exped te development of amadel at could predict the Mulivanate near regresion _Clashhuracerisi, aie Cashtes, btttioo fwinésndaced ackerasies fa, wine et ‘and Sova Undeane amextensive ana ofthe rp acta Ordered probit Grhetarsceics veite—tjry a1 lectin ity sees a age tuk aes tara ever seveiy ‘haractersie luewp ocksman and Std the impat of vehi, eeupant river, an bordered protic eterskeaic Crh hrs, vehicle ny lave in crates with eay-cuy tee ‘haracenstee la Wang ane Cur Menifee key contnbating atest the severity of Leste regresion Cashenaacerisics.vehite injury (Gon ‘rahes voting age racer ano explre the reatensip arate ever sevesty cence lata, Investigated the dferences between vo reed methods Mixeogtouteome, tent dass Crash huacersi, wehice —njuy Shabeee.and ens foracommedstnginddual unobstved heterogeneity in metod haratenstis. eves severty (eons) {edits contig ars planng the celaonhip beter Ren rack crash ery ddxdoi.org/10.1016)}jsr.2016.06.005 Pleas cite this article as: Naik, etal, Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity, Journal of Safety Research (2016), hitp|/ ) 190 ry M0 mH 182 v9 lett Jouato Say Research (206) xn 3 overturning type truck crash injury severities. Mulinazz tal (2008) and Rescot etal (2008) analyzed truck crash rates in Kansas at varying ‘wind levels by estimating the likelihood of wind-induced truck crashes They reported that wind levels were not statistically significant in ruck crashes, They also did not find evidence that the practice of alerting drivers to changing wind directions or speeds (i, in an attempt to encourage safer driving behavior) had any impacts on crashes, Since their study was aimed at estimating hourly crash rates the effects of high winds in different injury categories were not revealed in their study. Gis software packages have been used asa visual reference for crash locations (Austin, Tight, & Kirby, 1997; Kim & Levine, 1996; Miler, 11999; Roche, 2000) as well as for visualization of spatial distributions oferashes at the road network level (Kamalasudhan, Mitra, Huang. & Chin, 2002; Pulugurtha, Krishnamukar, & Nambisan, 2007). Mitra (2008) developed a GIS methodology for fata, injury, and pedestrian crash cluster mapping and analysis using crash data and various spatial, demographic, and socioeconomic data. The cluster detection utilized spatial autocorrelation tools in a GIS software, Researchers combined CIS with components of decison support systems to develop integrated systems that not only performed the tasks of decision support, but also permitted outcomes to be visually displayed. Jo. Lee, Ouyang, and Li (2008); Jo, Lee, and Ouyang (2008); Jo, Lee, Ouyang. and Peng (2011) developed an integrated web-based GS tool to ai local agencies in linois in accessing crash information and select safety projects. Durduran (2010) developed a decision making system for predicting traffic crashes and identifving risk factors associated with environmen- talconcitions onthe Turkish highway system; the system wasbuilt ana GIS platform and artificial intelligence techniques, such as correlation- based feature selection and classifier algorithms were ute, 3. Data processes In eis paper, a geographic information system (GIS) software (ESRI ‘ArcMap version 10.0) was used to integrate and manage crash data pertaining to Nebraska highways with detailed weather data recorded at weather stations across the stat to obtain an enriched database for analysis. The following three subsections provide details on these datasets and the process by which they were combined. 31. State DOT crash data Police-reported crash data used in this study were obtained fom the "Nebraska Department af Roads’ Office of Highway Safety (NDOR-OHS). Detailed information corresponding to each crash record within the [NDOR-OHIS dataset was obtained from an investigation report completed by law enforcement officer and made available (within 10 days ofthe crash) to NDOR In Nebraska an investigation report is made for any trafic crash resulting in death, injury, ofan estimated property dam. ‘worth $1000 oF greater, Each crash record is identiied by a unique crash key number and contains information on 77 variables. These -vatiables provide characteristics related tothe rash ranging from basic (Gate and time of occurrence) to specific (type of roadway, vehicle type, weather condition). The dataset consisted ofall motor vehicle crashes reported in Nebraska from 2009 to 2011 (3 years); from this dataset, only crashes involving single-vehicl trucks were extract for this research, ‘A total of 1721 single-vehicle truck crashes were reported in the [NDOR-OHS database. Within these single vehicle truck crashes there were 1355 no-injury or property damage only (PDO-type) crashes, 113 possible injury (C-type) crashes, 154 visible injury (B-type) crashes, 85 disabling injury (A-type) crashes, and 14 fatalities (K-type) cashes, Due to the relatively small number of fatal crashes, disabling injury crashes ang faal crashes were aggregate into single category coded as "KActype" inthis study. The injury severity in this paper is strictly {hat pertaining tothe driver ofa single-vehicle truck 32, Weather data Detailed 15-min weather data pertzning tothe state of Nebraska ‘were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (2012), ‘which archives weather data obtained by the National Weather Service, ‘military services, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US. ‘Coast Guatd, in adlition to data from voluntary cooperative weather ‘observers In Nebraska, the NCDC operates 37 weather monitoring stations, from which 15-min weather data were obtained for the current study, Relevant data were recorded in 15-min intervals at each monitor ing station, although in afew instances fewer than four observations ‘were recorded during an hour. The dataset included variables such as Visibty, precipitation, ar temperature, sky condition, wind speed and wind direction. 33. Integrating crash and weather data The single-vehicle truck crashes occurred randomly on multiple highways across the state, whereas the weather data were available from 37 specific locations at which a weather station was available. By integrating the two datasets, it was possible to associate each recorded ‘rash with measured weather data at che time the crash occurred, The process of integzation was completed in two steps using procedures ‘implemented in the GIS software package. The steps are described as, follows. Step 1—An afta of influence (or “responsible” region) was assigned around each weather station using the Thiessen polygon method. (Thiessen @ Alter, 1911). The boundary of each polygon defined an area that was closest to cach weather tation relative toallother weather ‘tations. Mathematically, the polygons were defined by the perpendicu- larisectors of ins between the weather stations. Therefore, the entire state of Nebraska was divided into 37 polygons with a weather station, atthe center. twas assumed that weather information recorded ata station (located atthe center ofa polygon) was relevant for its entire influence area. Step 2—Crash and weather data were spatially joined and each crash record was asighed toa corresponding weather station depending on the crash location and influence areas of weather stations. Then, a specific crash record was joined to the weather data by relating the time of crash occurrence to the closest 15-min weather data, Fig. 1 presenta illustration ofthe merging procedire, Three weather stations (A,B, and C) are shown, with their influence areas shaded, Crashes labeled 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9 were assumed to expe rience weather conditions corresponding to those recorded at stations 49 2a fas, rr Station| 140 iH © Weather eaten A can, Fig cashes and wether stain lafence eas @xdoiorg/10-1016jjsr 201606005 Pleas cite this article as: Naik Bet al, Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity, fournal of Safety Research (2016), hitp|/ m 4 ett Jouale Say Rsearch (206) xn A.B. and respectively. To merge the two datasets, crashes labeled 1-3, received detailed weather data from Station A forthe relevant 15-min petiods during which they were reported. Cashes labeled 4-6 received detailed weather data from Staton B for ther televant 15-min petiods While crashes labeled 7-9 received weather data from Station C for their relevant 15-min periods. For example, ia crash was reported at 2:35 am on 1/2/2010 within the influence area of Station A, then it ‘was matched tothe weather data recorded between 2:30 and 2:45 am 2 Station Aon 1/2/2010. ‘The process of matching crash data and weather data was not straightforward since a discrete time event (crash) needed to be matched to a particular weather datum from amongst a range of ‘15-min weather data, Queries in Structured Query Language (SQL) were utilized to merge the data. Three variables—crash date, rash time, and unique weather station ID-were utilized in the SQL queries. 34. Data summary statistics ‘Table 2 provides statistics on crashes categorized according to 43 variables that represent a specific crash related characteristic. These variables were subsequently considered in single-vehicle truck crash injury severity model specifications. Note that indicator variables (with values of 0 and 1) contained in the table were presented with mean ‘Windspeed (mph, continuous) 95% ° Tempra continous) 539 am a6 eave hamisy (pererage, continous) — 6721100 ° esi one ° Boas carved strait = 0 one 4 ° Roadway ist eel evel 0) ome 5 ‘asphalt poverent ous ° Gravel owe ° aimee median ome 0 Sedge ous ° Ligingconation Darko ihe 022 1 ° Darkane ome 0 ‘Neo oa ° ‘oon (<24ye0r), oo 6 Ht fee objec om ° values, which ae interpretable as proportions, For example, the mean 247 value for the indicator variable “recreational road” is 0.006, indicating 218 that 0.6% of the crashes in the data were reported on recreational 241 toads and the rest 99.4% were on non-recreational roads, 0 4. Modeling approaches a ‘An important element of this paper was to investigate the effects of 252 specific weather-related elements on crash-related injury severities of = ‘single-vehicle truck crashes. Driver injury severity reported in single- 254 vehicle truck crashes was selected as the dependent vatiable Tor 2:5 model estimation and the severity scale is ordinal in nature. es Twa common appraaches in modeling injury severity are ordered lscrete outcome models and unordered discrete outcome models. The essential difference between these models is that the former considers the ordinal nature of injury severity whereas the later does 29 not consider the ordinal nature (Savolainen, Mannering, Lord, & 251 ‘Queldus,2011). While both approaches have been adopted in previous 262 ‘esearch on crash injury severity it is common for many researchers 25 to have a preference forte ordered discrete outcome models because 204 of the ordinal nature and the typically more powerful inferences 25 (Agresti, 2010), An inherent limitation of standard ordered logit ot 206 probit model, however, is that itis impossible for an independent 227 variable to simultaneously increase (or decrease) the probability of 28 the two extreme categories of injury severity (ie. fatality and noinjury, 269 ‘Mannering & Bhat, 2014). The unordered discrete outcome models, on 270 ‘the other hand, do not have such limitations. The unorderee discrete 271 ‘outcome models also have the ability of handling under-reporting 272 issues in investigating injury severity, whichis atypical occurence with 275 police-reported crash databases (Washington, Karlafis, & Manneting, 74 20m) a Inthis paper both ordinal and nominallogit models were investigated 276 {or crash injury severity to capture as many weather-related impacting 277 factors as possible, However, as ordered logit and multinomial logit 278 regression models assume fixed parameters across individual crashes 279 and do not take into account potential unobserved heterogeneity in 250 the crash data, this paper applied random parameters (i., mixed) 281 ordered logit and random parameters (.e, mixed) multinomial logit 282 ‘model to address this issue, The unobserved heterogeneity issue has 253 attracted attention in highway accident research in recent years (see 28¢ ‘Mannering & Bat, 2014); not accounting for it has implications for 255 inferences drawn from modeling resuits.A possible unobserved hetero~ 286 geneity source in this dataset, for example could be the impact of wind. 257 speed ontrack diver injury severity. In a model that does not consider 258 ‘unobserved heterogeneity, the impact of wind speed on truck driver 253 injury severity is assumed the same across all truck crashes. Howewer, 2%) ‘the impact of wind speed on trucks may differ fromane truck oanather 291 ‘ue to unobserved or uncollected elements such as truck weight, wind 272 rection, roadway cross slope, or driver experience, ec. 2 4.1. Random parameters (mixed) ordered logit model wt The ordered logit or probit models have been used in the past for injury severity analysis (Abdel-Aty, 2003; Khattak, Pawlovich, Souleyrette, & Hallmark, 2002; Ma & Koekelman, 2004; O’Donmell 8 ‘Connor, 1996). n standard ordered logit models, the observed injury severity y, is the realization ofa latent injury risk propensity foreach individual driver, y,*; the relationships between the categories of y, and the values of" are: (0 PDO—type injury if —= yf 1 Cotype injury fay <9 2 Betype injury.uy

    You might also like