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Factors Affecting Housing Prices in Vietnam
Factors Affecting Housing Prices in Vietnam
ASSIGNMENT ON
APPLIED ECONOMICS
FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING PRICES IN VIETNAM
Abstract: This research assesses the factors affecting housing prices in Vietnam
by using the Hedonic pricing model (HPM) and the VHLSS 2018 dataset "Household
Living Standards Survey 2018" - MUC2V.dta, MUC2X.dta, MUC4A.dta, MUC7.dta.
The research assesses factors such as Commute time to the nearest healthcare facility,
Commute time to the workplace, Commute time to schools, Total living area, Type of
the house, Land value, and Cost of completing the house.
Key words: HPM, VHLSS, Housing prices, Factors
Abbreviations: HPM - Hedonic Price Model
VHLSS - Vietnam Houshold Living Standard Survey.
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I. INTRODUCTION
1. Reasons and Problem
The industrialization, modernization, and economic growth in Vietnam are
undergoing strong development, leading to the expansion of urban areas and a growing
demand for housing. However, the average income of people in major cities has not kept pace
with the rapidly increasing housing prices.
According to Numbeo, the housing price-to-average income ratio in Vietnam is high
compared to that of other countries in the world. Specifically, the two major cities in
Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, have the housing price-to-average income ratios of
34.3 times and 18.6 times, respectively, ranking 12th and 44th on the global scale. However,
the homeownership rate in Vietnam is relatively high. According to General Statistics Office
of Vietnam 2019 conducted by the General Statistics Office, 88.1% of households in Vietnam
own their own homes. This indicates that people in Vietnam have a preference for
homeownership. Furthermore, the demand for housing is increasing. According to General
Statistics Office, the proportion of temporary housing in Vietnam has been decreasing over
the years. Specifically, in 2008, 13.1% of households had temporary housing, but by 2016, it
had decreased to 2.6%, and in 2018, it was 1.7% followed by an increase in the number of
villas and other solid houses.
According to a representative of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, "The
real estate market has been developing like a storm in recent years. The demand is increasing
while the supply is limited due to unresolved legal obstacles. Combined with the
development of infrastructure, transportation, and convenient roads, the land accumulates
intrinsic value every day, causing housing prices to soar at a record-breaking pace."
Therefore, understanding the factors influencing housing prices and considering the potential
risks of speculative bubbles and the affordability issue for individuals and families is crucial.
Housing price fluctuations may depend on various factors, but the most fundamental
factors to consider include the location of the property, the type of property, or the time it
takes to access amenities, etc.
Based on this issue, the research topic "Factors Affecting Housing Prices in
Vietnam" has been chosen to identify and analyze the main factors that impact house prices.
Based on this, the research provides some suggestions for more appropriate marketing and
housing development strategies, offering housing that meets the needs of different groups of
people.
2. Research Objectives
This research aims to identify and analyze the main factors that affect housing prices
in Vietnam. By understanding and analyzing these factors, the research provides useful
information for real estate developers and investors, helping them have a better understanding
of the factors that influence housing prices and apply appropriate marketing and housing
development strategies. Additionally, it provides useful information for homebuyers to have a
more comprehensive view of the factors that affect housing prices, thereby making informed
decisions when choosing a home that suits their needs.
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II. THEORETICAL BASIS
1. Concepts related to the research problem
1.1 Housing
Housing refers to a building or structure constructed for the purpose of providing
shelter and meeting the living needs of households or individuals (according to Article 3,
Clause 1 of the Law on Housing of Vietnam 2014).
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The research results of Bajari and Kahn (2007), using the HPM model based on data
from the housing market in Los Angeles from 2000 to 2003, showed that people are willing
to pay higher prices to avoid longer commutes. Conversely, at a lower price level, people are
willing to pay for larger land or houses.
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2. Regression Model
Commute time to
the nearest
healthcare facility
Housing
prices
Commute time Type of the
to school main house
Cost of
completing the Land value
house
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VND
Table 1. Variables in the model
3. Data sources
The data for the research will be obtained from MUC2V, MUC2X, MUC3A,
MUC4A, and MUC7 in the VHLSS 2018 (Household Living Standards Survey) dataset,
which is collected through a biennial survey on the living standards of households in Vietnam
conducted by the General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam. The purpose of the survey is to
systematically monitor and supervise the living standards of different population groups in
Vietnam, evaluate the implementation of comprehensive strategies for growth, poverty
reduction, and contribute to assessing the results of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Vietnam's socio-economic development goals.
The living standards survey has been organized and implemented according to the specified
plan and high-level statistical information production procedures.
IV. RESULTS
1. Descriptive Statistics
The results in this research were conducted using RStudio software, including 1
dependent variable (gno) and 7 independent variables (tgyt, tgth, tglv, dto, gtd, cpht, ln) with
a sample size of 20,027 observations.
Dependent variable
gno Housing price 20027 1007070.97 3113346.09 -1 80000000
(Thousand VND)
Independent variable
tgyt Commute time to the 20027 21.72 13.37 0 59
nearest healthcare facility
(Minutes)
tglv Commute time to the 20027 19.89 26.59 1 720
workplace
(Minutes)
tgth Commute time to school 20027 13.83 16.34 1 660
(Minutes)
dto Total living area 20027 94.80 60.79 14 5
ln Type of the main house: 20027 3.45 0.94 1
1 = nhakieubietthu, Villa 193
2 = nhakiencokhepkin, Solid 4609
and closed house
3 = nhakiencokhongkhepkin, 2288
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Solid non-closed house
4 = nhabankienco, Semi-solid 11771
house
0 = nhatamvakhac, Temporary 1166
and others
gtd Land value 20027 758114.67 2879092.84 -1 78000000
(Thousand VND)
cpht Cost of completing the 20027 207487.59 303535.61 -1 4000000
house
(Thousand VND)
Table 2: Descriptive Statistics
According to the survey, the average house price is 1,007,071 thousand VND (1
billion VND), with the highest house price reaching 80,000,000 thousand VND (80 billion
VND). The commute time to schools for households ranges from a minimum of 1 minute to a
maximum of 660 minutes (11 hours). The commute time to the nearest healthcare facility
ranges from 0 to 59 minutes, with an average commute time of around 22 minutes among the
20,027 observations. The average commute time to the workplaces is about 20 minutes,
however, the standard deviation of commute time to the workplaces is relatively long, around
27 minutes, indicating diversity in commute times. The longest commute time to the
workplaces is 720 minutes (12 hours), while the shortest commute time is 1 minute. The total
living area ranges from 14m2 to 500m2. The average land value is 758,114 thousand VND
(about 758 million VND), and there are households with highest land values reaching
78,000,000 thousand VND (78 billion VND). The average cost to complete a house is
207,487 thousand VND (207.5 million VND), and the highest cost to complete a house is
4,000,000 thousand VND (4 billion VND). Among 20,027 houses, there are 193 villas, 4,609
solid closed houses, 2,288 solid non-closed houses, 11,771 semi-solid houses, and 1,166
houses that are temporary or of other types.
2. Bivariate Analysis
Observing the correlation between the commute time to the nearest healthcare facility,
the commute time to the workplaces, the commute time to schools, the total living area, the
land value, and the cost of completing the house in relation to housing prices through a
scatter plot.
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Figure 2. The correlation between commute time to the nearest healthcare facility and
housing prices
Figure 3. The correlation between commute time to schools and housing prices
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Figure 4. The correlation between commute time to the workplace and housing prices
Figure 5. The correlation between total living area and housing prices
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Figure 6. The correlation between land value and housing prices
Figure 7. The correlation between cost of completing a house and housing prices
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3. Regression results
The results of the regression model shown in Table 3, indicate that the variable "tgyt"
(commute time to the nearest healthcare facility) is statistically significant at the 1%. The
variables "dto" (total living area), "gtd" (land value), "cpht" (cost of completing a house),
"nhakieubietthu" (villa), and "nhakiencokhepkin" (solid and closed house) are statistically
significant at the 0.1%. The variable "nhakiencokhongkhepkin" (solid non-closed house) is
statistically significant at the 1%. In this model, the variables "tglv" (commute time to the
workplace) and "tgth" (commute time to school) and the dummy variable "nhabankienco"
(semi-solid house) are not statistically significant. However, both R-square and adjusted R-
square are approximately 0.993, indicating that 99.3% of the variation in housing prices is
explained by the variables included in the model. That means the model fit is high.
Table 3. Linear regresion result
Linear Regression
Variables
Estimate Std. Error
Intercept 11600 8810.0
Independent variables
tgyt -436.5** 136.3
tglv -21.17 68.54
tgth 99.14 111.50
dto 490.60*** 39.19
gtd 1.045*** 0.0006922
cpht 0.6580*** 0.007931
nhakieubietthu 488600.0*** 21150.0
nhakiencokhepkin 67150.0*** 9037.0
nhakiencokhongkhepkin 26040.0** 9383.0
nhabankienco 9786.0 7936.0
R2 0.9932
Obs. 20027
Note: *** indicates statistical significance at the 0.1% level; ** indicates statistical
significance at the 1% level; * indicates statistical significance at the 5% level.
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- In ceteris paribus, when the land value increases by 1 thousand VND, the average housing
price increases by 1.045 thousand VND.
- In ceteris paribus, when the cost of completing a house increases by 1 thousand VND, the
average housing price increases by 0.658 thousand VND.
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a villa, the average housing price will
be higher than that of a temporary and other types of house by 488,600 thousand VND (488.6
million VND).
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a solid and closed house, the average
housing price will be higher than that of a temporary and other types of house by 67,150
thousand VND (67.15 million VND).
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a solid non-closed house, the average
housing price will be higher than that of a temporary and other types of house by 26,040
thousand VND (26.04 million VND).
VIF. Test
Variables
Results
tgyt 1.007581
tglv 1.006666
tgth 1.007105
dto 1.720445
gtd 1.204156
cpht 1.757028
nhakieubietthu 1.294162
nhakiencokhepkin 4.386372
nhakiencokhongkhepkin 2.701289
nhabankienco 4.626266
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that all the coefficients are less than 5, which indicates that the model does not have
multicollinearity.
Data: model
BP = 4164.5 df = 55 p-value < 2.2e-16
The White test for heteroscedasticity in the regression model yields a p-value less
than 1%, indicating that the model has heteroscedasticity. To address heteroscedasticity, we
can use robust standard errors, which take into account the heteroscedasticity and provide
more accurate standard errors for the estimated coefficients.
Linear Regression
Variables p-value = 2.2e-16
Estimate Std. Error
Intercept 11598 6497.1
Biến độc lập
tgyt -436.49** 99.716
tglv -21.168 39.779
tgth 99.139 71.87
dto 490.59*** 66.257
gtd 1.0448*** 0.0065875
cpht 0.65800*** 0.020318
nhakieubietthu 488580.0*** 67710.0
nhakiencokhepkin 67149.0*** 11111.0
nhakiencokhongkhepkin 26038.0** 6283.4
nhabankienco 9786.30 5369.1
Note: *** indicates statistical significance at the 0.1% level; ** indicates statistical
significance at the 1% level; * indicates statistical significance at the 5% level.
Based on the results in Table 6, we can observe that all variables are statistically
significant except for tglv, tgth, and the dummy variable nhabankienco. The variables tgyt
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and nhakiencokhongkhepkin are statistically significant at the 1% level, while the variables
dto, gtd, cpht, nhakieubietthu, and nhakiencokhepkin are statistically significant at the 0.1%
level.
Besides, we can conclude that:
- In ceteris paribus, the average housing price will decrease by 436.49 thousand VND when
the commute time to the nearest healthcare facility increases by 1 minute.
- In ceteris paribus, the average housing price will increase by 490.59 thousand VND when a
1 square meter increase in the total living area of the house.
- In ceteris paribus, the average housing price will increase by 1.0448 thousand VND when a
1 thousand VND increase in land value.
- In ceteris paribus, the average housing price will increase by 0.658 thousand VND when a 1
thousand VND increase in the cost of completing a house.
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a villa, the average housing price will
be higher than that of a temporary or other types of house by 488,580 thousand VND (488.58
million VND).
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a solid and closed house, the average
housing price will be higher than that of a temporary or other types of house by 67,149
thousand VND (67.149 million VND).
- In ceteris paribus, when the type of the main house is a solid non-closed house, the average
housing price will be higher than that of a temporary or other types of house by 26,038
thousand VND (26.038 million VND).
4. Chi-square test
4.1 Chi-square test on the independence between two variables gno and dto
X-squared df p-value
628994 62916 <2.2e-16
Hypothesis:
● H0: The variable "dto" is independent of the variable "gno".
● H1: The variable "dto" is dependent on the variable "gno".
Based on the test result, we have: p-value < 2.2e-16 < a = 0.05, so we reject the null
hypothesis H0. That means the "dto" variable is dependent on the "gno" variable.
4.2. Kiểm định chi - square sự độc lập giữa hai biến gno và cpht
X-square df p-value
860669 89238 <2.2e-16
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Hypothesis:
● H0: The variable “cpht” is independent of the variable "gno".
● H1: The variable “cpht” dependent on the variable "gno".
Based on the test result, we have: p-value < 2.2e-16 < a = 0.05, so we reject the null
hypothesis H0. That means the "cpht" variable is dependent on the "gno" variable.
5. F-test
Test Results
F-test p-value < 2.2e-16
We have: p-value < 2.2e-16, so we reject the null hypothesis that all regression
coefficients are equal to 0. Thus, at least one of the variables has an impact on the housing
price.
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Infrastructure and public utilities around the house
Number of floors, bedrooms, bathrooms, garden/terrace availability.
If further research is conducted on these factors, along with the search for diverse and
validated data sources, and the application of additional models, this research would be
highly regarded and developed more extensively.
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6. REFERENCES
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APPENDIX
Appendix 1. Descriptive Statistics
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Appendix 3. VIF test
Appendix 4. Multicollinearity
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Appendix 5. White test for heteroskedasticity
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Appendix 7.2. Chi-square test
Appendix 8. F-test
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