Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXAMINATIONS
Please take note to refer to the book for sample illustrations,
problems, etc for all of the chapters included here. Take note
that this will only serve as a reviewer or the outline of the
chapters! Goodluck and Study well!
● The expected rate of return represents the
CHAPTER 8 CENGAGE: RISK AND RETURN average payoff investors will receive in the
RATE future if the probability distributions do not
change over a long period of time.
Return (interest rate) on debt
● is equal to the nominal risk-free rate, plus Measuring Total (Stand-Alone) Risk: The
several premiums that reflect the riskiness Standard Deviation
of the debt instrument in question.
● In general, the width of a probability
Defining and Measuring Risks distribution indicates the amount of scatter,
or variability, of the possible outcomes. The
Risks measure we use most often to evaluate
variability is the standard deviation, the
● occurs any time we cannot be certain about symbol for which is σ, the Greek letter
the future outcome of a particular activity or sigma.
event. ● The smaller the value of the standard
● results from the fact that an action can deviation, the tighter the probability
produce more than one outcome in the distribution, and, accordingly, the lower the
future. When multiple outcomes are total risk associated with the investment.
possible, some of the possible outcomes ● If σ =0, there is no “scatter” in the outcomes
are considered “good” and some of the because there is only one possible
possible outcomes are considered “bad.” outcome, which indicates there is no risk
● As the chance of receiving an actual return associated with the investment; that is, it is
that differs from the one that is expected, a risk-free investment.
which simply means there is variability in ● SD can be calculated by:
the returns or outcomes from the
investment.
● An investment’s risk can be measured by
the variability of all the payoffs it is likely to
generate, both “good” and “bad.” The
○ is a weighted average deviation from
greater the variability of the possible
the expected value, which gives an
outcomes, the riskier the investment.
idea as to how far above or below
● we can measure it by examining the
the expected value the actual value
tightness of the probability distribution
is likely to be. Note the standard
associated with the possible outcomes.
deviation is the square root of the
variance
Probability Distributions
● A greater variation of returns for this firm,
● A listing of all of the possible outcomes and hence a greater chance the actual, or
associated with an investment along with realized, return will differ significantly from
their probabilities. the expected return.
● The estimated standard deviation can be
Expected Rate of Return computed using a series of past, or
observed, returns to solve:
● Because other outcomes are also possible,
however, we need to summarize all the
information contained in the probability
distributions into a single measure that can
be used to make decisions. That measure is
called the expected value, or expected rate
of return ● The past realized rate of return in period:
● it is measured by computing the weighted
average of the outcomes using the
probabilities as the weights.
The Impact of Inflation ● a firm can affect its relevant risk, or beta
coefficient, by changing the composition of
Risk free rate as measured by the rate on U.S.
its assets and by modifying its use of debt
Treasury securities is called the nominal, or quoted
financing.
rate, and it consists of two elements:
● External factors, such as increased
1. a real inflation-free rate of return, r, and competition within a firm’s industry or the
2. an inflation premium, IP, equal to the expiration of basic patents, can also alter a
anticipated rate of inflation. company’s beta. When such changes occur,
the required rate of return, r, changes as
Thus, well.
● Any change that affects the required rate of
return on a security, such as a change in its
beta coefficient or in expected inflation, will
affect the price of the security.
● Because the inflation premium is built into
the required rates of return of both riskless A Word of Caution
assets and risky assets, the increase in
expected inflation would cause an equal ● A word of caution about betas and the
increase in the rates of return on all risky CAPM is in order. First, the model originally
assets. was developed under very restrictive
assumptions, including:
Changes in Risk Aversion ○ all investors have the same
information, which leads to the same
Market Risk Premium expectations about future economic
conditions;
● depends on the degree of aversion ○ everyone can borrow and lend at the
investors on average have to risk, which is risk-free rate of return;
reflected in the slope of the security market ○ stocks (or any other security) can be
line (SML). purchased in any denomination or
● The steeper the slope of the line, the fraction of shares; and
greater the average investor’s risk aversion, ○ taxes and transaction costs
and thus the greater the return investors (commissions) do not exist.
require as compensation for risk. As risk ● The entire theory is based on expected
aversion increases, so does the risk conditions, yet we have available only past
premium, and, therefore, so does the slope data.
of the SML.
● The stock’s future volatility, which is the item generally consider the firm to be in
of real concern to investors, might therefore “-default” of their expectations.
differ quite dramatically from its past ○ As long as no laws have been
volatility. For this reason, many investors broken, stockholders generally do
and analysts use the CAPM and the not have legal recourse, as would be
concept of b to provide “ballpark” figures for the case for a default on debt. As a
further analysis. result, investors penalize the firm by
● The concept that investors should be selling their stock, which causes the
rewarded only for taking relevant risk makes value of the firm’s stock to decline.
sense.
● CAPM provides an easy way to get a
“rough” estimate of the relevant risk and the
appropriate required rate of return of an
investment (or a portfolio of investments).
● The specific types and sources of risk to
Stock Market Equilibrium which a firm or an investor is exposed are
numerous, and vary considerably
● The average investor will want to buy Stock depending on the situation.
Q if the expected rate of return exceeds the
required return; will want to sell it if it does ● you should recognize that risk is an
not exceed, and will be indifferent (and important factor in determining the required
therefore will hold but not buy or sell Stock rate of return (r), which, according to the
Q) is equal to the required return. following equation, is one of the two
● Check book for application/ example! variables we need to determine the value of
an asset:
Equilibrium
The
lower the coefficient of variation, the better.
●
● Coefficient of variation = CV = Risk/Return =
sigma / r^
Working Capital
■ Example:
● A financing policy that matches asset and Note for the 3 Approaches!
liability maturities; considered a moderate
● The aggressive policy calls for the greatest
current asset financing policy.
use of short-term debt, the conservative
● This minimizes the risk that the firm will be
policy requires the least, and maturity
unable to pay off its maturing obligations if
matching falls in between. It is clear that
the liquidations of the assets can be
both risk and expected returns are
controlled to occur on or before the
influenced by which policy a firm elects to
maturities of the obligations. At the limit, a
follow. While short-term debt generally is a
firm could attempt to match exactly the
riskier source of funds than long-term debt,
maturity structure of all of its assets and
it generally is also less expensive, and it
liabilities.
can be obtained faster and under more
flexible terms.
Conservative Approach
Inventory Financing
● REFER TO THE CENGAGE BOOK FOR
● A substantial amount of credit is secured by SAMPLE PROBLEMS
business inventories. If a firm is a relatively
good credit risk, the mere existence of the Computing the Cost of Trade Credit
inventory might be a sufficient basis for
receiving an unsecured loan. If the firm is a ● On the basis of the preceding discussion,
relatively poor risk, the lending institution trade credit can be divided into two
might insist on security in the form of a legal components:
claim (lien) against the inventory. 1. “free” trade credit, which involves
● 3 major types of inventory liens: credit received during the discount
1. Blanket Liens - gives the lending period; and
institution a lien against all of the 2. costly trade credit, which involves
borrower’s inventories without credit in excess of the free trade
limiting the borrower’s ability to sell credit and whose cost is an implicit
the inventories, which generally is one based on the forgone discounts.
used when the inventory put up as ● Financial managers always should use the
collateral is relatively low priced, fast free component, but they should use the
moving, and difficult to identify costly component only after analyzing the
individually. cost of this source of financing to make sure
2. Trust Receipt - An arrangement in it is less than the cost of funds that could be
which the goods are held in trust for obtained from other sources.
the lender, perhaps stored in a ● REFER TO THE CENGAGE BOOK FOR
public warehouse or held on the SAMPLE PROBLEMS
premises of the borrower (generally
is used for goods that are relatively Computing the Cost of Bank Loans
high priced, slow moving, and easy
to identify individually using serial ● The cost of bank loans varies for different
numbers or other distinguishing types of loans and for different borrowers at
characteristics). When the goods any given point in time.
that are held in trust are sold, ● Interest rates are higher for riskier
proceeds from the sale must be borrowers, and rates also are higher on
given to the lender to repay a portion smaller loans because of the fixed costs
of the loan. involved in making and servicing such
3. Warehouse Receipt - refers to an loans. Factors such as a compensating
arrangement in which inventory that balance or application fees can affect the
is used as collateral is physically cost of borrowing for each of these types of
separated from the borrower’s other loans.
inventory and then stored in a
● REFER TO THE CENGAGE BOOK FOR
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Seasonal Fluctuations
● Aggressive
○ temporary assets- if it would not hold
on within a few years or not for so
long.
○ Aggressive Simply because it is a
challenge to retain a temporary
asset and be financed by a short ● Try to look at the trend to determine the
term. pattern
● Conservative
○ you finance your permanent asset
(would retain for a number of years)
with short-term debt or some
seasonal activities.
● Self Liquidating
○ ALM- asset liability matching
Marketing Efforts
Cash
● Cash Budget is a schedule showing cash are expected to be sold, but
receipts, cash disbursements, and cash payments for the materials are not
balances for a firm over a specified time made until the month of the
period. It shows the firm’s projected cash expected sales (that is, one month
inflows and cash outflows over some after the credit purchase).
specified period. ○ The line labeled Net Cash Flow
● It provides information concerning a firm’s shows whether the business’s
future cash flows that is much more detailed operations are expected to generate
than the information provided in forecasted positive or negative net cash flows
financial statements. each month. However, this is only
● Perhaps the most critical ingredient of the beginning of the story. We need
proper cash management is the ability to to examine the firm’s cash position
estimate the cash flows of the firm so the based on the cash balance that
firm can make plans to borrow when cash is exists at the beginning of the month
deficient or to invest when cash is in excess and based on the target (minimum)
of what is needed. Without a doubt, financial cash balance desired by the
managers will agree the most important tool business.
for managing cash is the cash budget ○ The cash surplus or required loan
(forecast). balance (shortfall) is given on the
● First, the firm forecasts its operating bottom line of the cash budget. A
activities for the period in question. Then, positive value indicates a cash
the financing and investment activities surplus, whereas a negative value
necessary to attain that level of operations (in parentheses) indicates a loan
must be forecast. Such forecasts entail the requirement. Note the bottom line
construction of pro forma financial surplus cash or loan requirement
statements. The information from these pro that is shown is a cumulative
forma statements is combined with amount.
projections about the delay in collecting
accounts receivable, the delay in paying
suppliers and employees, tax payment
dates, dividend and interest payment dates,
and so on.
● Minimum
● The minimum cash balance a firm desires to
maintain to conduct business.
● Check book for complete formula
● Reorder Point
Outsourcing
● Quantity Discount
● The practice of purchasing components
○ A discount from the per unit from other companies rather than making
purchase price that is offered when them in-house.
inventory is ordered in large ● Outsourcing often is combined with
quantities. just-in-time systems to reduce inventory
levels.
Note!
Multinational Working Capital Management
● In cases in which it is unrealistic to assume
the demand for the inventory is uniform
Cash Management
throughout the year, the EOQ should not be
applied on an annual basis. Rather, it would ● a multinational corporation wants to
be more appropriate to divide the year into 1. Speed up collections and slow down
seasons within which sales are relatively disbursements where possible,
constant; then the EOQ model can be 2. Shift cash as rapidly as possible to
applied separately to each period. those areas where it is needed, and
3. Try to put temporary cash balances
Inventory Control Systems to work earning positive returns.
● Potential problem: The chance that a
● The EOQ model can be used to help
foreign government will restrict transfers of
establish the proper inventory level, but
funds out of the country. Foreign
inventory management also involves the
governments often limit the amount of cash
establishment of an inventory control
that can be taken out of their countries
system. Inventory control systems run the
because they want to encourage domestic
gamut from very simple to extremely
investment. Even if funds can be transferred
complex, depending on the size of the firm
without limitation, deteriorating exchange
and the nature of its inventories.
rates might make it unattractive for a
● It requires coordination of inventory policy
multinational firm to move funds to its
with manufacturing and procurement
operations in other countries.
policies.
● It is important to get those funds to locations
● Companies try to minimize total production
where they will earn the highest returns.
and distribution costs, and inventory costs
While domestic corporations tend to think in
are just one part of total costs.
terms of domestic securities, multinationals
Redline Method are more likely to be aware of investment
opportunities all around the world. To take
● An inventory control procedure where a line advantage of the best rates available
(often colored red) is drawn around the around the world, most multinational
inside of an inventory-stocked bin to corporations use one or more global
indicate the reorder point level. concentration banks, located in money
● Inventory items are stocked in a bin that has centers
a line (often colored red) drawn around the
inside at the level of the reorder point, and Credit Management
the inventory clerk places an order when the
● Credit policy generally is more important for
line shows.
a multinational corporation than for a purely
Computerized Inventory Control Systems domestic firm for two reasons. First, much
U.S. trade is with poorer, less-developed
● A system of inventory control in which a nations, and in such situations, granting
computer is used to determine reorder credit generally is a necessary condition for
points and to adjust inventory balances. doing business. Second, and in large part
● The computer records are also used to as a result of the first point, developed
determine whether the usage rates of nations whose economic health depends on
exports often help their manufacturers 2. if assessment dates vary among
compete internationally by granting credit to countries in a region, to hold safety
foreign companies that purchase from these stocks in different countries at
firms. different times during the year.
Fixed Costs
● The value may not necessarily change
throughout the period regardless the
quantity or units
● It is usually by contract, such as salaries
(except for laborers), renting, etc.
● Since this is a fixed cost, kailangan mong
mabawi ang naincurr ng firm.
Variable Costs
● It may change depending on the units you
are producing.