FCCL

LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES

Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH LINEAR
Year X Data Forecast $ Million
30000
2017 0 19424.28 -19424.28
2018 1 21160.88 20000.763 1160.11699999999
25000
2019 2 20798.08 20577.246 220.833999999999
2020 3 17231.71 21153.729 -3922.019 20000 R²
f(x)==0.0667453600070895
576.482999999999 x + 19424.28
2021 4 24271.28 21730.212 2541.068
2022 5 22306.695 15000
2023 6 22883.178
10000

5000
Average Error -3,885
Sum of squares of Error 400536552.24463 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Model's Standard Error of Estimate 10006.7045555047 ERROR PATTERN

5000
Intercept, $ Million 19424.28
Slope, $ million/year 576.482999999999
0
Coeff. Of Correlation, R 0.258351233802142 2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.
Coeff. Of Determination, R^2 332332.649288999 -5000

LINEST Output for linear Model -10000

Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 -15000
Err:502 Err:502
-20000
Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502
-25000
NUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUAT
Annual Sales
R PLOT WITH LINEAR TREND LINE Fiscal $ Million
Year X X^2 Data
2017 0 0 0
2018 1 1 21160.88
2019 2 4 20798.08
2999999999
53600070895x + 19424.28 2020 3 9 17231.71
2021 4 16 24271.28
2022 5 25
2023 6 36

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

LINEST Output for quadratic mode
ERROR PATTERN
-2246.15642857
1922.813213488
0.722603010063
5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 2.604941784796
269668518.5518
 FCCL
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
$ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH QUADRATIC TREND
Forecast $ Million LINE
3277.399142857 -3,277 30000
14477.20742857 6,684 25000
f(x) = 4461.339 x + 7769.712
21184.70285714 -387 20000 R² = 0.533334854636376
23399.88542857 -6,168 15000
21122.75514286 3,149 10000
14353.312
5000
3091.556
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Error 0
Error Pattern
8,000
LINEST Output for quadratic model 6,000
4,000
13445.96471429 3277.399 2,000
8020.689831865 6770.924 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
7194.508263635 #N/A -2,000
-4,000
2 #N/A
-6,000
103521898.311 #N/A -8,000
 FCCL
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error
Fiscal $ Million Ratio
SCATTER PLOT WITH EXPO-
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % NENTIAL TREND LINE
2017 0 0 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
30000
2018 1 21160.88 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
2019 2 20798.08 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 25000
2020 3 17231.71 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 20000
2021 4 24271.28 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
15000
2022 5 Err:502
10000
2023 6 Err:502
5000

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Geometric Mean Error Err:502

LOGEST Output for Error Pattren

Exponential Model
12
10
Err:502 Err:502 8
Err:502 Err:502 6
Err:502 Err:502 4
2
Err:502 Err:502 0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
Err:502 Err:502
 FCCL
ANNUAL SALES LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR AN
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error
ER PLOT WITH EXPO-
NTIAL TREND LINE Year X Data Forecast $ Million
2017 0 0 7769.712 -7,770
2018 1 21160.88 12231.05 8,930
2019 2 20798.08 16692.39 4,106
2020 3 17231.71 21153.73 -3,922
2021 4 24271.28 25615.07 -1,344
2022 5 30076.41
2023 6 34537.75

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Mean Error 0

ror Pattren
LINEST Output for Linear Model
4461.339 7769.712
2409.39107199 5901.77871719
0.53333485464 7619.16356156
3.42859238537 3
8.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5
199035456.729 174154960.134

Linear Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence

CCL
ITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUA
Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum Fiscal
years $ Million $ Million $ Million Year X X^2
-3 10424.16 -9302.401307 24841.82531 2017 0 0
-2 9409.589 -3179.449461 27641.55146 2018 1 1
-1 8744.522 2371.097897 31013.6821 2019 2 4
0 8511.293 7214.406856 35093.05114 2020 3 9
1 8744.522 11293.7759 39936.3601 2021 4 16
2 2022 5 25
3 2023 6 36

Student's t = 1.637744354

LINEST Output for Quadretic Model

-2246.156429 13445.96471429
1922.813213 8020.689831865
0.72260301 7194.508263635
2.604941785 2
269668518.6 103521898.311

st Errors and Confidence Limits Added Quadratic Model with Standard Forecas
 FCCL
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
$ Million Error X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum
Data Forecast $ Million years $ Million $ Million $ Million
0 3,277 3,277 -2 9100.41310319533 -13882.504369 20437.3026545
21160.88 14,477 -6,684 -1 8203.00151786878 -990.52056974 29944.9354269
20798.08 21,185 387 0 7881.18893229993 6323.79048957 36045.6152247
17231.71 23,400 6,168 1 8203.00151786878 7932.15743026 38867.6134269
24271.28 21,123 -3,149 2 9100.41310319532 3962.85163121 38282.6586545
14,353 14,353 3 10425.8329751901 -5305.8271901 34012.4511901
3,092 3,092 4 12038.7149495042 -19608.862607 25791.9746068

Average Mean Error 2,492 Student's t = 1.8856180832

or Quadretic Model

3277.3991
6770.924
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

atic Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added

Chart Title
50000

s 40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

-10000

-20000
 FCCL
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
Fiscal $ Million Ratio X-XM Error, SFE Minimum
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % years percent $ Million
2017 0 0 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 -2 Err:502 Err:502
2018 1 21160.88 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 -1 Err:502 Err:502
2019 2 20798.08 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 0 Err:502 Err:502
2020 3 17231.71 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502
2021 4 24271.28 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 2 Err:502 Err:502
2022 5 Err:502 3 Err:502 Err:502
2023 6 Err:502 4 Err:502 Err:502
2024 8 Err:502 6 Err:502 Err:502

Geometric Mean Error Err:502 Student's t =

LOGEST output for

exponential Model

Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502

Exponential Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added
ES
80% Confidence Limit
Maximum
$ Million
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502

Err:502

dded
 MPLF
LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH LINEAR
Year X Data Forecast $ Million
30000
40000
2017 0 23885 22677.816 1207.184
2018 1 25684.16 25372.209 311.950999999997 35000
25000
2019 2 26005.94 28066.602 -2060.662 30000 R²
f(x)==0.845414641073844
2694.393 x + 22677.816
2020 3 29117.73 30760.995 -1643.265 20000 R²
f(x)==0.0667453600070895
576.482999999999 x + 19424.28
25000
2021 4 35640.18 33455.388 2184.79199999999
2022 5 36149.781 15000
20000
2023 6 38844.174 15000
10000
10000
5000
Average Error 0 5000
Sum of squares of Error 13274570.45799 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Model's Standard Error of Estimate 1821.71364777714 ERROR PATTERN

2500
5000
Intercept, $ Million 22677.816
Slope, $ million/year 2694.393 2000
0
Coeff. Of Correlation, R 0.919464322893414 1500
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.
Coeff. Of Determination, R^2 7259753.638449 1000
-5000
500
LINEST Output for linear Model -10000
0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5
2694.393 22677.816 -500
665.1959726 1629.39071176867 -15000
-1000
0.845414641 2103.53436371503 -1500
-20000
16.40675379 3
-2000
72597536.38 13274570.45799
-25000
-2500
NUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUAT
Annual Sales
R PLOT WITH LINEAR TREND LINE Fiscal $ Million
Year X X^2 Data
2017 0 0 23885
2018 1 1 25684.16
93
4641073844
x + 22677.816 2019 2 4 26005.94
2999999999
53600070895x + 19424.28 2020 3 9 29117.73
2021 4 16 35640.18
2022 5 25
2023 6 36

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

LINEST Output for quadratic mode
ERROR PATTERN
874.0421428571
303.5077730898
0.969963761133
5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 32.29311650606
83292831.72935

2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

 MPLF
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
$ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH QUADRATIC TREND
Forecast $ Million LINE
24425.90028571 -541 40000
30000
24498.16685714 1,186 35000
25000
30000 f(x) = 4461.339
2694.393 x + 7769.712
22677.816
26318.51771429 -313 20000 R² = 0.845414641073844
0.533334854636376
25000
29886.95285714 -769 20000
15000
35203.47228571 437 15000
10000
42268.076 10000
5000
5000
51080.764
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Error 0
Error Pattern
1,500
8,000
LINEST Output for quadratic model 6,000
1,000
4,000
-801.7755714286 24425.9 2,000
500
1266.031298535 1068.761 0
2016
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1135.622101125 #N/A -2,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-4,000
2 #N/A -500
-6,000
2579275.113126 #N/A -8,000
-1,000
 MPLF
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error
Fiscal $ Million Ratio
SCATTER PLOT WITH EXPO-
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % NENTIAL TREND LINE
2017 0 23885 23087.0173 1.034564 3.456413
30000
40000
2018 1 25684.16 25326.7796 1.014111 1.411077
35000
2019 2 26005.94 27783.8301 0.93601 -6.39901 25000
30000
2020 3 29117.73 30479.2487 0.95533 -4.467035 20000
25000
2021 4 35640.18 33436.1605 1.065917 6.591724
15000
20000
2022 5 36679.9339 15000
10000
2023 6 40238.3986 10000
5000
5000
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Geometric Mean Error 1

LOGEST Output for Error Pattren

Exponential Model
12
8
6
10
1.097014 23087.0173 4
8
2
0.019906 0.0487595 6
0
0.878227 0.06294825 2016.5
4
-2 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
-4
2
21.63608 3 -6
0
2016.5
-8 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
0.085733 0.01188745
 MPLF
ANNUAL SALES LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR AN
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error
ER PLOT WITH EXPO-
NTIAL TREND LINE Year X Data Forecast $ Million
2017 0 23885 22677.82 1,207
2018 1 25684.16 25372.21 312
2019 2 26005.94 28066.6 -2,061
2020 3 29117.73 30761 -1,643
2021 4 35640.18 33455.39 2,185
2022 5 36149.78
2023 6 38844.17

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Mean Error 0

ror Pattren
LINEST Output for Linear Model
2694.393 22677.816
665.195972577 1629.39071177
8.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 0.84541464107 2103.53436372
16.4067537886 3
8.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5
72597536.3845 13274570.458

Linear Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence

MPLF
ITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUA
Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum Fiscal
years $ Million $ Million $ Million Year X X^2
-3 30425.48 -27151.34682 72506.97882 2017 0 0
-2 27464.2 -19607.12793 70351.54593 2018 1 1
-1 25523.04 -13733.61237 69866.81637 2019 2 4
0 24842.3 -9924.346072 71446.33607 2020 3 9
1 25523.04 -8344.82637 75255.60237 2021 4 16
2 2022 5 25
3 2023 6 36

Student's t = 1.637744354

LINEST Output for Quadretic Model

874.0421429 -801.775571429
303.5077731 1266.031298535
0.969963761 1135.622101125
32.29311651 2
83292831.73 2579275.113126

st Errors and Confidence Limits Added Quadratic Model with Standard Forecas
 MPLF
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
$ Million Error X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum
Data Forecast $ Million years $ Million $ Million $ Million
23885 24,426 541 -2 1436.46096031203 21717.2835232 27134.5170482
25684.16 24,498 -1,186 -1 1294.80841190182 22056.6527014 26939.6810129
26005.94 26,319 313 0 1244.01168317481 23972.7867888 28664.2486397
29117.73 29,887 769 1 1294.80841190182 27445.4387014 32328.4670129
35640.18 35,203 -437 2 1436.46096031203 32494.8555232 37912.0890482
42,268 42,268 3 1645.67277086971 39164.9656643 45371.1863357
51,081 51,081 4 1900.25923451933 47497.6008247 54663.9271753

Average Mean Error 13,336 Student's t = 1.8856180832

or Quadretic Model

24425.9
1068.7612
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

atic Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added

Chart Title
50000

s 40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

-10000

-20000
 MPLF
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
Fiscal $ Million Ratio X-XM Error, SFE Minimum
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % years percent $ Million
2017 0 23885 23087.02 1.03456413 3.456413 -2 8% 20076.3859
2018 1 25684.16 25326.78 1.01411077 1.411077 -1 7% 22349.7619
2019 2 26005.94 27783.83 0.9360099 -6.39901 0 7% 24646.1222
2020 3 29117.73 30479.25 0.95532965 -4.467035 1 7% 26896.5878
2021 4 35640.18 33436.16 1.06591724 6.591724 2 8% 29075.963
2022 5 36679.93 3 9% 31200.0929
2023 6 40238.4 4 11% 33296.9602
2024 8 48424.48 6 14% 37487.0491

Geometric Mean Error 1 Student's t =

LOGEST output for

exponential Model

1.09701393 23087.02
0.01990598 0.04876
0.87822736 0.062948
21.6360765 3
0.08573257 0.011887

Exponential Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added
ES
80% Confidence Limit
Maximum
$ Million
26097.6487
28303.7973
30921.5379
34061.9096
37796.358
42159.775
47179.8369
59361.9129

1.63774435

dded
 DGKC
LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH LINEAR
Year X Data Forecast $ Million
60000
2017 0 32475 31781.37 693.630000000001
2018 1 33464.86 35914.129 -2449.269
50000
2019 2 43627.01 40046.888 3580.122 f(x)==0.865373169822944
R² 4132.759 x + 31781.37
2020 3 41592.69 44179.647 -2586.95699999999 40000
2021 4 49074.88 48312.406 762.473999999995
2022 5 52445.165 30000
2023 6 56577.924
20000

10000
Average Error 0
Sum of squares of Error 26571027.86667 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Model's Standard Error of Estimate 2577.35425711474 ERROR PATTERN

4000
Intercept, $ Million 31781.37
Slope, $ million/year 4132.759 3000
Coeff. Of Correlation, R 0.930254357594171
Coeff. Of Determination, R^2 17079696.952081 2000

1000
LINEST Output for linear Model
4132.759 31781.37 0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5
941.1168519 2305.25607543587
-1000
0.86537317 2976.0727963022
19.28381962 3 -2000
170796969.5 26571027.86667
-3000
NUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUAT
Annual Sales
R PLOT WITH LINEAR TREND LINE Fiscal $ Million
Year X X^2 Data
2017 0 0 32475
2018 1 1 33464.86
59
3169822944
x + 31781.37 2019 2 4 43627.01
2020 3 9 41592.69
2021 4 16 49074.88
2022 5 25
2023 6 36

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

LINEST Output for quadratic mode
ERROR PATTERN
56.29928571429
973.334719491
0.865598001278
6.440365541493
170841344.0548

2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

 DGKC
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
$ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH QUADRATIC TREND
Forecast $ Million LINE
31893.96857143 581 60000
35857.82971429 -2,393 50000
39934.28942857 3,693 40000 f(x) = 4132.759 x + 31781.37
R² = 0.865373169822944
44123.34771429 -2,531 30000
48425.00457143 650 20000
52839.26
10000
57366.114
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Error 0
Error Pattern
5,000
LINEST Output for quadratic model 4,000
3,000
3907.561857143 31893.97 2,000
4060.1010191 3427.465 1,000
3641.885042987 #N/A 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-1,000
2 #N/A
-2,000
26526653.33266 #N/A -3,000
 DGKC
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error
Fiscal $ Million Ratio
SCATTER PLOT WITH EXPO-
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % NENTIAL TREND LINE
2017 0 32475 32102.9056 1.011591 1.159068
60000
2018 1 33464.86 35632.735 0.939161 -6.083942
2019 2 43627.01 39550.6819 1.103066 10.30659 50000
2020 3 41592.69 43899.421 0.947454 -5.254582 40000
2021 4 49074.88 48726.3196 1.007153 0.715343
30000
2022 5 54083.953
20000
2023 6 60030.6773
10000

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Geometric Mean Error 1

LOGEST Output for Error Pattren

Exponential Model
15
1.109954 32102.9056 10
0.023565 0.05772236 5
0.867237 0.07451925 0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
19.59671 3 -5
-10
0.108823 0.01665936
 DGKC
ANNUAL SALES LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR AN
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error
ER PLOT WITH EXPO-
NTIAL TREND LINE Year X Data Forecast $ Million
2017 0 32475 31781.37 694
2018 1 33464.86 35914.13 -2,449
2019 2 43627.01 40046.89 3,580
2020 3 41592.69 44179.65 -2,587
2021 4 49074.88 48312.41 762
2022 5 52445.17
2023 6 56577.92

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Mean Error 0

ror Pattren
LINEST Output for Linear Model
4132.759 31781.37
941.116851878 2305.25607544
8.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 0.86537316982 2976.0727963
19.2838196224 3
170796969.521 26571027.8667

Linear Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence

GKC
ITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUA
Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum Fiscal
years $ Million $ Million $ Million Year X X^2
-3 42639.18 -38050.70996 101613.45 2017 0 0
-2 38489.15 -27121.25983 98949.51783 2018 1 1
-1 35768.75 -18533.18333 98626.95933 2019 2 4
0 34814.75 -12838.00753 101197.3015 2020 3 9
1 35768.75 -10267.66533 106892.4773 2021 4 16
2 2022 5 25
3 2023 6 36

Student's t = 1.637744354

LINEST Output for Quadretic Model

56.29928571 3907.561857143
973.3347195 4060.1010191
0.865598001 3641.885042987
6.440365541 2
170841344.1 26526653.33266

st Errors and Confidence Limits Added Quadratic Model with Standard Forecas
 DGKC
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
$ Million Error X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum
Data Forecast $ Million years $ Million $ Million $ Million
32475 31,894 -581 -2 4606.66068493548 23207.5658809 40580.3712619
33464.86 35,858 2,393 -1 4152.38782704974 28028.0121393 43687.6472893
43627.01 39,934 -3,693 0 3989.48517976915 32411.6440311 47456.9348261
41592.69 44,123 2,531 1 4152.38782704974 36293.5301393 51953.1652893
49074.88 48,425 -650 2 4606.66068493549 39738.6018809 57111.4072619
52,839 52,839 3 5277.5928224235 42887.7355385 62790.7844615
57,366 57,366 4 6094.03927339888 45875.0833466 68857.1446534

Average Mean Error 15,744 Student's t = 1.8856180832

or Quadretic Model

31893.969
3427.4652
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

atic Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added

Chart Title
50000

s 40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

-10000

-20000
 DGKC
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
Fiscal $ Million Ratio X-XM Error, SFE Minimum
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % years percent $ Million
2017 0 32475 32102.91 1.01159068 1.159068 -2 9% 27147.0467
2018 1 33464.86 35632.74 0.93916058 -6.083942 -1 8% 30674.405
2019 2 43627.01 39550.68 1.10306594 10.30659 0 8% 34263.0746
2020 3 41592.69 43899.42 0.94745418 -5.254582 1 8% 37790.7735
2021 4 49074.88 48726.32 1.00715343 0.715343 2 9% 41204.2353
2022 5 54083.95 3 11% 44518.7835
2023 6 60030.68 4 12% 47771.3439
2024 8 73957.61 6 16% 54182.5387

Geometric Mean Error 1 Student's t =

LOGEST output for

exponential Model

1.10995358 32102.91
0.02356506 0.057722
0.86723731 0.074519
19.5967101 3
0.10882286 0.016659

Exponential Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added
ES
80% Confidence Limit
Maximum
$ Million
37058.7644
40591.0651
44838.2892
50008.0685
56248.4039
63649.1224
72290.0107
93732.6844

1.63774435

dded
 PIOC
LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH LINEAR
Year X Data Forecast $ Million
25000
2017 0 10631 8010.338 2620.662
2018 1 10121.32 9864.221 257.099
2019 2 9733.65 11718.104 -1984.454 20000
2020 3 6286.95 13571.987 -7285.037
2021 4 21817.6 15425.87 6391.73 15000 R²
f(x)==0.24696131236037
1853.883 x + 8010.338
2022 5 17279.753
2023 6 19133.636 10000

5000
Average Error 0
Sum of squares of Error 104798003.37643 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Model's Standard Error of Estimate 5118.54460214107 ERROR PATTERN

8000
Intercept, $ Million 8010.338
Slope, $ million/year 1853.883 6000
Coeff. Of Correlation, R 0.496952022191649
4000
Coeff. Of Determination, R^2 3436882.177689
2000

LINEST Output for linear Model 0

2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5
1853.883 8010.338
-2000
1869.028298 4578.1656452433
0.246961312 5910.38643340208 -4000

0.983859062 3 -6000
34368821.78 104798003.37643
-8000
NUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUAT
Annual Sales
R PLOT WITH LINEAR TREND LINE Fiscal $ Million
Year X X^2 Data
2017 0 0 10631
2018 1 1 10121.32
2019 2 4 9733.65
2020 3 9 6286.95
83
131236037
x + 8010.338 2021 4 16 21817.6
2022 5 25
2023 6 36

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

LINEST Output for quadratic mode
ERROR PATTERN
2072.973571429
1262.606875061
0.679255948122
2.117750724122
94529893.76667

2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

 PIOC
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast
$ Million Error SCATTER PLOT WITH QUADRATIC TREND
Forecast $ Million LINE
12156.28514286 -1,525 25000
7791.247428571 2,330 20000
7572.156857143 2,161
15000
11499.01342857 -5,212 f(x) = 1853.883 x + 8010.338
10000 R² = 0.24696131236037
19571.81714286 2,246
31790.568 5000
48155.266
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Error 0
Error Pattern
3,000
LINEST Output for quadratic model 2,000
1,000
0
-6438.011285714 12156.29 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-1,000
5266.750848916 4446.098 -2,000
4724.242340664 #N/A -3,000
2 #N/A -4,000
-5,000
44636931.38665 #N/A -6,000
 PIOC
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error
Fiscal $ Million Ratio
SCATTER PLOT WITH EXPO-
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % NENTIAL TREND LINE
2017 0 10631 8870.19329 1.198508 19.85083
25000
2018 1 10121.32 9765.62267 1.036423 3.642341
2019 2 9733.65 10751.444 0.905334 -9.466579 20000
2020 3 6286.95 11836.7821 0.531137 -46.88632
15000
2021 4 21817.6 13031.6831 1.674197 67.41966
2022 5 14347.207 10000
2023 6 15795.5307
5000

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Geometric Mean Error 1

LOGEST Output for Error Pattren

Exponential Model
80
60
1.100948 8870.19329 40
0.153827 0.37679773 20
0
0.115271 0.48644377 2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
-20
0.390868 3 -40
-60
0.09249 0.70988263
 PIOC
ANNUAL SALES LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR AN
Annual Sales Forecast
Fiscal $ Million Error
ER PLOT WITH EXPO-
NTIAL TREND LINE Year X Data Forecast $ Million
2017 0 10631 8010.338 2,621
2018 1 10121.32 9864.221 257
2019 2 9733.65 11718.1 -1,984
2020 3 6286.95 13571.99 -7,285
2021 4 21817.6 15425.87 6,392
2022 5 17279.75
2023 6 19133.64

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Average Mean Error 0

ror Pattren
LINEST Output for Linear Model
1853.883 8010.338
1869.02829813 4578.16564524
8.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5 0.24696131236 5910.3864334
0.98385906228 3
34368821.7769 104798003.376

Linear Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence

IOC
ITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES Quadratic REGRESSION EQUA
Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum Fiscal
years $ Million $ Million $ Million Year X X^2
-3 10747 -9590.494304 25611.1703 2017 0 0
-2 9701.001 -6023.538732 25751.98073 2018 1 1
-1 9015.338 -3046.714869 26482.92287 2019 2 4
0 8774.886 -799.0323976 27943.0064 2020 3 9
1 9015.338 661.0511314 30190.68887 2021 4 16
2 2022 5 25
3 2023 6 36

Student's t = 1.637744354

LINEST Output for Quadretic Model

2072.973571 -6438.01128571
1262.606875 5266.750848916
0.679255948 4724.242340664
2.117750724 2
94529893.77 44636931.38665

st Errors and Confidence Limits Added Quadratic Model with Standard Forecas
 PIOC
Quadratic REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
$ Million Error X-XM Error, SFE Minimum Maximum
Data Forecast $ Million years $ Million $ Million $ Million
10631 12,156 1,525 -2 5975.74640604177 888.309659222 23424.2606265
10121.32 7,791 -2,330 -1 5386.46501903831 -2365.5684157 17948.0632728
9733.65 7,572 -2,161 0 5175.14819420573 -2186.1961609 17330.5098752
6286.95 11,499 5,212 1 5386.46501903831 1342.19758434 21655.8292728
21817.6 19,572 -2,246 2 5975.74640604177 8303.84165922 30839.7926265
31,791 31,791 3 6846.07755988668 18881.4803543 44699.6556457
48,155 48,155 4 7905.16944418726 33249.1355456 63061.3964544

Average Mean Error 11,421 Student's t = 1.8856180832

or Quadretic Model

12156.285
4446.0976
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

atic Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added

Chart Title
50000

s 40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 2021 2021.5

-10000

-20000
 PIOC
Exponential REGRESSION EQUATION FITTED TO DATA FOR ANNUAL SALES
Annual Sales Forecast Error Std. Fcst. 80% Confidence Limit
Fiscal $ Million Ratio X-XM Error, SFE Minimum
Year X Data Forecast Data/fcst Percent % years percent $ Million
2017 0 10631 8870.193 1.19850827 19.85083 -2 62% -68.4546928
2018 1 10121.32 9765.623 1.03642341 3.642341 -1 55% 895.0762
2019 2 9733.65 10751.44 0.90533421 -9.466579 0 53% 1368.56362
2020 3 6286.95 11836.78 0.53113675 -46.88632 1 55% 1084.91002
2021 4 21817.6 13031.68 1.67419664 67.41966 2 62% -100.57051
2022 5 14347.21 3 70% -2216.43256
2023 6 15795.53 4 81% -5261.25112
2024 8 19145.55 6 107% -14271.4349

Geometric Mean Error 1 Student's t =

LOGEST output for

exponential Model

1.10094813 8870.193
0.15382703 0.376798
0.11527067 0.486444
0.39086759 3
0.09249004 0.709883

Exponential Model with Standard Forecast Errors and Confidence Limits Added
ES
80% Confidence Limit
Maximum
$ Million
17808.8413
18636.1691
20134.3243
22588.6542
26163.9366
30910.8467
36852.3125
52562.5427

1.63774435

dded