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Journal of Eurasian Studies 9 (2018) 94–99

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Journal of Eurasian Studies


j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s e v i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e u r a s

The greater Eurasian partnership and the Belt and Road


Initiative: Can the two be linked?
Yongquan Li
Chinese Association for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, P.O. Box 1103, Beijing 10000, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: Responding to changes in the world, Russia has proposed the Greater Eurasian Partner-
Received 18 April 2018 ship for the international cooperation agenda. At the same time, the possibility of linking
Accepted 15 July 2018
that partnership with the Belt and Road Initiative for international cooperation is one of
Available online 23 July 2018
the key factors in implementing this agenda. Alignment between the development strat-
egies of Russia and China in the field of global, regional, and bilateral relations lays the
Keywords:
foundation of successful cooperation between a number of countries, regions, and orga-
Eurasian Partnership
nizations. For the Eurasian Partnership to succeed, it must strictly adhere to WTO rules and
Belt and Road
strategic linkage take a tolerant attitude toward the diverse mechanisms for cooperation that various coun-
Russian–Chinese relations tries and regions have developed.
Copyright © 2018, Asia-Pacific Research Center, Hanyang University. Production and
hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction that the United States and developed countries oppose


globalization for the reason that international capital cannot
We are all witnesses to the radical changes taking place exist in isolation from globalization. The previous world
in the world today and to the difficult process of ordering economic order can no longer meet the needs of the de-
relations between the great powers. We are not only wit- veloped countries: they increasingly require new rules more
nesses, but also participants in the shaping of a new world suited to their interests. However, the developed coun-
order. These changes are the result of the United States’ tries cannot monopolize the rules as they did before. The
shaky position as a global superpower, Russia’s revival, participants in globalization processes demand a more
China’s rise, the exhaustion of the West’s outdated liberal fair and equitable system of trade and want to play an
development model (Allison, 2018; Kortunov, 2016), the active role in developing the new global economic order.
deadlock on global development issues, and the fight against Developments such as the so-called Trans-Pacific Partner-
terrorism – in a word, all of the issues resulting from the ship (TTP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment
world’s unbalanced and unequal development. Partnership (TTIP) are therefore extremely inauspicious.
The global economic crisis continues unabated, trade Also, while the existing world order remains unadapted
protectionism is rampant, especially in several developed to new circumstances and a new world order has not fully
countries (Xu, 2017), and the globalization process is slowing formed, every country and region, without exception, should
and even blocked at times. Still, it would be wrong to say present their own visions for that new world order. In this
context, Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership and China’s
Belt and Road are promising initiatives for international
cooperation that provide a fitting response to the chang-
Chinese Association for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies,
P.O. Box 1103, Beijing 10000, China. ing international economic environment (Lukin, 2016a,
E-mail address: lyquan0328@163.com. pp. 91–112).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2018.07.004
1879-3665/ Copyright © 2018, Asia-Pacific Research Center, Hanyang University. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article
under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Y. Li / Journal of Eurasian Studies 9 (2018) 94–99 95

1.1. The Belt and Road Initiative: The Chinese concept of The Belt and Road Initiative contains a completely new
international cooperation concept of cooperation. Speaking at the Forum, Xi stressed:
“China will enhance friendship and cooperation with all
Chinese President Xi Jinping first proposed the One Belt, countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative on the basis
One Road initiative (or Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) for in- of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. We are ready
ternational cooperation in September and October of 2013. to share practices of development with other countries, but
In 2017 an ever-growing number of countries and organi- we have no intention to interfere in other countries’ inter-
zations are giving their acknowledgement and support to nal affairs, export our own social system and model of
the project. development, or impose our own will on others. In pursu-
The BRI has different ramifications in the domestic ing the Belt and Road Initiative, we will not resort to
Chinese context than in the context of international coop- outdated geopolitical maneuvering. What we hope to
eration and partnership. achieve is a new model of win-win cooperation. We have
First, in the domestic Chinese context, the BRI serves as no intention to form a small group detrimental to stabili-
a development strategy and marks China’s entry into a new ty, what we hope to create is a big family of harmonious
stage of the great cause of promoting reform and political co-existence.” (Speech by Comrade Xi Jinping at Opening
openness. The stimulation of social and economic devel- of Belt and Road Forum, 2017)
opment calls for new approaches and measures and the This is why a growing number of countries under-
coordination of economic, political, cultural, social, and eco- stand, accept, support, and choose to participate in the Belt
civilizational development. The BRI strategy perfectly and Road Initiative.
embodies this more open approach to the socio-economic
development of China and its regions, and the approach for 1.2. The greater Eurasian partnership: Russia’s reaction to
resolving socio-economic issues connected with the world changes in the world
economy that arise at the state and local levels. Second, as
a result of pursuing a policy for reform and greater open- The year 2017 marks the 100th anniversary of the
ness, the Chinese economy has largely connected already Russian Revolution. The October Revolution and the col-
to the global economy and kept pace with the develop- lapse of the Soviet Union were among the world’s most
ment of the regional economy. Such coordinated significant events of the 20th century. The collapse of the
development should continue to serve as its fundamental Soviet Union triggered fundamental geopolitical changes and
principle. made it extremely difficult for Russia to advance and
In the context of the international community, the BRI develop. As an independent state, Russia’s relations with the
is an initiative for international cooperation. It focuses pri- West underwent a number of changes and were generally
marily on stimulating regional economic development. It unstable and variable. Ultimately, Russia realized that its own
creates opportunities and conditions for China and its busi- revival was the only solution. Only then could it win uni-
ness partners to develop by strengthening cooperation on versal respect and become a wealthy and powerful country.
the construction of infrastructure in contiguous countries However, as Russia grew stronger, the West stepped up its
and regions, cooperation on energy, and the simplification pressure in an effort to thwart that revival.
of trade procedures. Mutual benefit, joint development, and A prerequisite to Russia’s revival is the integration of the
mutual prosperity serve as the main principles of cooper- post-Soviet space, and the formation of the Eurasian Eco-
ation. The main principles for implementing that cooperation nomic Union (EAEU) is nothing less than the concrete result
are joint consultation, construction, and use. To achieve that, of that integration (Lukin, 2014a, pp.43–60). The develop-
the governments involved must align their political ap- ment of Russia and the EAEU are inseparable from the
proaches and deepen the close contacts between the peoples development of the global economy. The developed coun-
of their respective countries. It is worth noting that, in pro- tries ignored Russia and lobbied for the establishment of
posing the BRI, the Chinese government did not set out to new global trade rules that worked to their advantage. Even
simply maximize its own profits, but gave serious thought though the TTP and TTIP would have only a negligible effect
to the question of how China’s business partners would also on Russia and the EAEU, as a great power and, until re-
gain and promoted the idea of mutual benefit. China does cently, a superpower, Russia cannot accept a reality in which
not intend to use the BRI unilaterally by imposing its goods it is excluded from the process of developing the rules of
and manufacturing might on its partners. The win-win ap- global trade.
proach put forward by Xi Jinping is the only way to develop In such a situation, Russia is trying to find its own de-
the BRI since it requires increasing connectivity and the velopment strategy. Various models of cooperation have
synergy of participating countries’ development strate- been proposed and attempted. For example, the Gorbachev
gies (Chen, 2017). No, China is proposing a two-way road era saw the idea of transforming Russia into a single “pan-
– namely, it is promoting Chinese goods, technologies, and European home.” There were hopes for a “honeymoon” in
investment abroad while also welcoming foreign invest- Russian–U.S. relations during the initial period of Boris
ment, technologies, goods, and services, and is creating Yeltsin’s presidency, and under Dmitry Medvedev, those re-
conditions to attract them. At the Belt and Road Interna- lations underwent a “reset.” All such geopolitical agendas
tional Forum held in Beijing in May 2017, Chinese President dealt, in one way or another, with the development of Rus-
Xi Jinping announced to the many senior officials of other sia’s relations with the U.S. and the West. However, the
countries present that China would hold a permanent in- Ukrainian crisis led to a serious deterioration on these re-
ternational exposition of import goods starting in 2018. lations. In addition, the situation appears especially bleak
96 Y. Li / Journal of Eurasian Studies 9 (2018) 94–99

when considering that Russia’s relations with the West are Partnership, 2016). Speaking before a plenary session of the
defined primarily by its relations with the U.S. The Obama St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 17,
administration became deeply disappointed with Russia and 2016, Vladimir Putin said: “Now we propose considering
President Vladimir Putin, and Russia became similarly dis- the prospects for a more extensive Eurasian partnership in-
illusioned with the U.S. Democratic Party. With such feelings volving the EAEU and countries with which we already have
running deep, the prospects for improving Russia’s rela- close partnership – China, India, Pakistan and Iran – and cer-
tions with the West look extremely problematic. tainly our CIS partners, and other interested countries and
After Donald Trump moved into the White House, there associations” (Speech by Vladimir Putin on June 17, 2016,
appeared some hope of improvement. Still, in the U.S., a before the Plenary Session of the 20th St. Petersburg
single person does not determine the nature of Russian– International Economic Forum, 2016). Russia’s vision for a
U.S. relations. Russia nevertheless hopes that relations with Greater Eurasian Partnership has developed gradually since
the West will improve, and this is the main leitmotif of its that time.
state policy. At the same time, however, it is gradually be- Whereas the close cooperation between five post-
ginning to rethink this foreign policy priority and to try out Soviet states and the formation of the EAEU – where Russia
new diplomatic ideas (Lukin, 2014b, pp. 85–93). The Greater holds a leading position – began the process of Eurasian in-
Eurasian Partnership is just such a new approach to foreign tegration, the idea of a Greater Eurasian Partnership and the
policy. It breaks traditional concepts that only give impor- regions’ relationship to it clearly set out the basic outlines
tance to relations with the U.S. and the West. of Russia’s strategic and decisive “pivot to the East.” That
The Greater Eurasian Partnership is not only one of the pivot is toward not only China, Japan, or South Korea, but
most important concepts of cooperation that Russia has put also toward the entire Asia with a particular focus on co-
forward, but also a fully practicable plan for international operation with China, the ASEAN and SCO countries. In
cooperation. Russian scholars, including Sergey Karaganov, focusing on the Asia Pacific, Russia is not seeking only its
were the first to introduce the concept of a Greater Eur- own development, but also its joint development with the
asian Partnership stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok EAEU through cooperation with the countries of the region
(Karaganov, 2016; Li, 2017; Shevchenko, 2017; Trenin, 2015). and the region as a whole (Lukin, 2016b, pp.584–585).
The academic community did not initially devote much at- The idea Russia has proposed is well grounded. First, the
tention to this bold idea because the economic integration EAEU already enjoys a very high degree of internal inte-
of the post-Soviet space has always been Russia’s highest gration. Second, cooperation between Russia and ASEAN is
priority. Although the post-Soviet space is often referred to already established and its future looks promising. Third,
as Eurasia, when speaking of an area “stretching from Lisbon with 8 full member states and 18 associated states, the SCO
to Vladivostok,” the post-Soviet space is only “Eurasia in the will undoubtedly play a positive role in building the rela-
narrow sense of the word.” tions of a Greater Eurasian Partnership and serve as a reliable
Addressing the Federal Assembly in December 2015, guarantor of its successful development. This would be fully
President Vladimir Putin said: “I propose holding consul- in China’s interests since China sees the SCO as a multilat-
tations, in conjunction with our colleagues from the Eurasian eral platform for maintaining regional security and
Economic Union, with the SCO and ASEAN members, as well promoting economic development.
as with the states that are about to join the SCO, with the
view of potentially forming an economic partnership” (Putin, 1.3. From Russian–Chinese cooperation on linking their
2015). Speaking in May 2016 at a meeting of heads of del- respective strategies to a new model of economic partnership
egations at the Russia-ASEAN summit with Business Forum
representatives, President Putin noted that, in addition to China was the first to respond to the idea of a Greater
creating “a common free trade zone between the EAEU and Eurasian Partnership. Following the SCO Summit in Tash-
ASEAN,” “another promising sphere of regional economic kent, President Vladimir Putin made an official visit to China
integration could be the coordination of the EAEU, ASEAN, on June 25, 2016 – and such annual meetings between the
the SCO and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt project” (Speech leaders of the two countries are very important events in
by Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with representatives of the themselves. On this occasion, the meeting of Russian and
Russian-ASEAN Business Forum, 2016). “[We are discuss- Chinese senior officials resulted in the signing of a joint
ing prospects,” he said, “for establishing a broad cross- statement by the two countries that reads in part that:
border partnership with the participation of the Eurasian “Russia and China advocate building a comprehensive Eur-
Economic Union, the ASEAN community and the Shang- asian partnership on the basis of openness, transparency
hai Cooperation Organization” (Speech by Vladimir Putin and the consideration of each other’s interests, including
at a reception in honor of the heads of delegations of the the possible involvement of the member countries of the
Russia-ASEAN Summit, 2016). The “Sochi Declaration” signed EAEU, SCO, and ASEAN. In this regard, the heads of state in-
at the summit clearly proposed that the parties “explore the structed the governments of the two countries to work
possibility of mutually beneficial cooperation among ASEAN, through the relevant departments and propose measures
the EAEU and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), to implement this initiative in order to promote the deep-
and consider that “a proposal put forward by Russia to ening of the integration processes in the region” (Zhonghua
launch a joint feasibility study of a comprehensive free trade Renmin Gongheguo he Eluosi Lianbang lianhe shengming,
area between ASEAN and EAEU” (Sochi Declaration of the 2016).
ASEAN-Russian Federation Commemorative Summit to Mark The declaration states several very important prin-
the 20th Anniversary of ASEAN-Russian Federation Dialogue ciples: (1) that openness, transparency, and consideration
Y. Li / Journal of Eurasian Studies 9 (2018) 94–99 97

of each other’s interests are the basis of the Eurasian part- Belt and Road Initiative put forward by China and sup-
nership; (2) that in the initial stage, the main participants ported by numerous countries. The future Eurasian Economic
are Russia, China, the EAEU, the SCO, and the ASEAN coun- Partnership will deal with the following issues that hold
tries; and (3) that the goal of the Eurasian partnership is equal importance for all countries concerned: the obser-
to deepen regional integration. vance of WTO multilateral trade rules and the streamlining
In 2016, using recommendations by the Russian and of investment and trade procedures; the intensification of
Chinese leaders as their guide, scholars of the two coun- construction of communications infrastructure; the cre-
tries researched the issue of a comprehensive Eurasian ation of regional cross-border transport corridors and the
partnership. In November, after a meeting of the prime min- development of infrastructural interdependence; the acti-
isters of the two countries, a joint statement was published vation of cooperation on energy and environmental
giving a positive assessment of the idea of a comprehen- protection; the development of cooperation on agricul-
sive Eurasian partnership and charging the two countries’ ture; the search for opportunities to cooperate on scientific
experts with creating a feasibility study of the project and technical innovation; the development of regional co-
(ZhongE zongli di 21 cidingqi huiwulianhe gongbao, 2016). operation; and so on. The process of building the Eurasian
The authorized bodies of the two countries subsequently Economic Partnership should also be based on the prin-
began carrying out the instructions of their respective leaders ciples of joint consultation, construction, and use. Fully
by beginning an analysis of the feasibility of the idea of a coordinating that process should make it possible to iden-
Eurasian partnership. In China, the Ministry of Commerce tify sources of growth and drivers of development for all
undertook this task, and in Russia, the Ministry of Econom- interested countries and regions: only in this way is it pos-
ic Development did so. On July 4, 2017, Chinese Commerce sible to achieve joint development and prosperity that will
Minister Zhong Shan and Russian Economic Development benefit all.
Minister Maxim Oreshkin signed, in the presence of Chinese Russia and China have already tried to take the first step
President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, toward linking strategies and strengthening cooperation. On
a Joint Declaration of the Ministry of Economic Develop- May 8, 2015 they signed a Joint Declaration on Coopera-
ment of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of tion on Linking Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt
Commerce of the People’s Republic of China on the Feasi- and the Eurasian Economic Union. The signing of this joint
bility Study of the Eurasian Economic Partnership declaration noticeably boosted practical cooperation between
Agreement. Both sides continue seeking ways to further China and the EAEU countries. In practice, China has large
expand bilateral trade exchanges by creating a more equi- joint cooperative projects with EAEU countries, including
table, transparent, and favorable trade and investment Kazakhstan, Belarus, and others (Li, 2016).
environment, and by jointly stimulating regional econom- Speaking of mechanisms for cooperation and linkage at
ic development. the international Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, Presi-
The same day in Moscow saw the signing of a Joint Dec- dent Xi Jinping noted: “[T]he Belt and Road Initiative is not
laration of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic meant to reinvent the wheel. Rather, it aims to comple-
of China on the Further Deepening of the Comprehensive ment the development strategies of countries involved by
Partnership and Strategic Cooperation Relationship. The leveraging their comparative strengths. We have enhanced
Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Russian Economic coordination with the policy initiatives of relevant coun-
Development Ministry underscored their expectation for tries, such as the Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, the
rapid progress on joint research. Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity, the Bright Road ini-
By this time, Russia and China had, over the course of tiative of Kazakhstan, the Middle Corridor initiative of Turkey,
their working relationship, changed the wording of the the Development Road initiative of Mongolia, the Two Cor-
“comprehensive Eurasian partnership” to the “Eurasian Eco- ridors, One Economic Circle initiative of Vietnam. . ..” (Speech
nomic Partnership.” by Comrade Xi Jinping at Opening of Belt and Road Forum,
In a sense, prospects for this development emerged 2017). With regard to the Eurasian Economic Partnership,
during Russian–Chinese cooperation on the creation of the mechanisms for cooperation are already in place such as the
Eurasian Economic Partnership. Russia and China are EAEU, SCO, ASEAN, the geographically expanded ASEAN+
members of the UN Security Council and the strict obser- format, the 10 + 3 format that includes the 10 ASEAN coun-
vance of all UN principles is their sacred duty. During the tries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, the Russia-ASEAN
consultations on the issue of Eurasian partnership (or Greater cooperation mechanism, (The Permanent Mission of the
Eurasian Partnership, or Eurasian Economic Partnership) Socialist Republic of Viet Nam to the United Nations Office,
Russian and Chinese scholars and experts reached a con- the World Trade Organization and Other International
sensus on the main points – namely, regarding observance Organizations in Geneva; Ramani, 2017) and others. In prac-
of the principle of sovereign equality, non-interference in tice, the use of any or all of these mechanisms would
internal affairs, respect for a country’s chosen path of de- improve the process of linkage of China’s BRI and the Greater
velopment, respect for each country’s cultural traditions, Eurasian Economic Partnership.
mutual tolerance, and win-win approaches. At the same Linking the Russian and Chinese development strate-
time, the parties agreed to use mechanisms for coopera- gies is crucial not only to building the Eurasian Economic
tion to link the various integration processes. The relevant Partnership, but also, in some ways, to that organization’s
bodies of the two countries continue to coordinate specif- future prospects. China, Russia and the EAEU, and ASEAN
ic elements of the Eurasian Economic Partnership, guided are three very important economic entities. In the future,
by the consensus already reached and the content of the aligning the development strategies of China and the
98 Y. Li / Journal of Eurasian Studies 9 (2018) 94–99

Russian-led EAEU will drive the construction of the Eur- region, reinforcing Russian influence on the economic
asian Economic Partnership (Shuvalov: Evrazijskoe development of the region, and creating the necessary
ehkonomicheskoe partnerstvo nuzhno nachat’ s EАEHS i conditions for new ideas for development of the Russian
KNR, 2017). By no means do we say this because it is rel- Far East to emerge.
atively easy to reach agreement on questions regarding a In conclusion, China’s political and economic relations
partnership between China and Russia in conjunction with with EAEU countries, the level of China’s practical cooper-
the EAEU. In fact, just the opposite might be closer to the ation with ASEAN countries, and the strong cooperation
truth. During the past few years, talks between Russia and between Russia and ASEAN countries provide reason to be
China, and between China and the SCO member countries confident that the linking of the Belt and Road Initiative
on the creation of a free trade zone have progressed with and the Eurasian Partnership has a future. Moreover, the
extreme difficulty. Moreover, it has been difficult to make Russian–Chinese talks on the Eurasian Economic Partner-
any progress at all on several aspects of those talks. However, ship are the most important link in this process. As they
in 2016 the EAEU signed a free trade agreement with an say in China: The future looks bright, but the road leading
ASEAN member country Vietnam and Russia and other there is thorny!
countries continue to hold talks on establishing new free
trade zones. Russia and China would also enjoy certain op- Conflict of interest
portunities with the creation of the Eurasian Economic
Partnership. First, their economies complement each other None.
greatly, including in the areas of resources, market, tech-
nology, commodity structure, etc. That degree of
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