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Expressing degrees of probability

In the present tense

The idea of probability can be expressed with will, must, should, may, could, might, can't and won't. The choice
depends on the degree of certitude that an event will happen.
We can see the different degrees of probability for each modal verb in the table below:
certainty (positive)
The train will arrive on time.

The train must arrive on time.

almost certainty
The train should arrive on time.
uncertainty (positive)
The train may arrive on time.

The train could arrive on time.

The train might arrive on time.

certainty (negative)
The train can't arrive on time.

The train won't arrive on time.

Every modal verb expesses a different degree of probability.

Will expresses 100% certainty whereas won't denotes that there is 0% chance the action will take place.
My aunt may retire to Spain.
The renovation work should be finished by July.
They won't agree to our request.
Sammy might be late today due to the strike.
The new premises will open in January 2010.
William could be made redundant in the downsizing of the company.

Can't and must are more subjective than the other modal verbs in the context of probability.

In the past tense

When we want to analyze the past or when we give reasons or explanations about past actions we can use the above
mentioned modal verbs in the past tense. The verbs will convey the same degree of probability. However, they need to
be put in the past tense.
For the past tense we use a "modal verb + have + past participle."
Rupert wasn't at the meeting. He may have overslept.
Maisie could have phoned while I was out.
Christine might have lost my phone number. I'd better try phoning her.
He should have arrived by now.

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Christine must have switched off her cell phone and can't have got my message. (can't have got U.K.; can't have
gotten U.S.)
He'll have received the package by now.
He won't have seen the contract yet.

2 sur 2 29/09/2021, 17:56