Vulnerability of the East Coast, U.S.A.

to Future Sea Level Rise

Author(s): Vivien Gornitz
Source: Journal of Coastal Research , FALL 1990, SPECIAL ISSUE NO. 9. Proceedings of
the Skagen Symposium (2-5 September 1990) (FALL 1990), pp. 201-237
Published by: Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc.

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44868636

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 Vulnerability of the East Coast, U.S.A. to

Future Sea Level Rise

Vivien Görnitz

NASA GSFC Institute for Space Studies and

Columbia University, New York, NY 10025

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ABSTRACT

Sea level rise, due to future global climate warming, could reach at

least 0.7 m by the year 2100, which represents an increase of around 7 times

the present rate. Potential impacts of this accelerated sea level rise

include inundation, both permanent and episodic, increased shoreline retreat,

and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers and estuaries. A coastal

hazards data base, described here, is designed to determine the differential

vulnerability of the world's shorelines to inundation and erosion factors, on

regional to global scales, and to screen out targets for more detailed

studies .

High risk shorelines are characterized by low relief, and erodible

substrate, past and present evidence of subsidence, extensive shoreline

retreat and high wave/tide energies. The coastal hazards data base contains

information on seven variables, relating to inundation and erosion risks.

Each of these, consisting of either numerical or nominal data, is assigned a

rank from 1 to 5, based on assessment of the relative risk factor. These risk

factors are then combined into an overall coastal vulnerability index, CVI.

Preliminary results and analysis are presented here for the East Coast,

U.S.A., as a test case. The data base is being extended to the rest of North

America, with ultimate global coverage planned.

Based on the criteria used, high risk areas along the East Coast include

parts of Cape Cod, Long Island and the New Jersey barrier beaches, the North

Carolina Outer Banks, the southern Delmarva Peninsula, and Georgia-South

Carolina. Although the high risk status for most of these sites could have

been anticipated, the CVI approach allows further differentiation among these

sites and a more precise evaluation of the contributing factors. The

procedure can be adapted for more detail studies at higher resolution.

ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Coastal hazards m, iťing, erosion, inundation,

geographic information systems, data bases.

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INTRODUCTION

Projected sea level rise, based on models of greenhouse climate warming,

could reach 0.66m by the year 2100 (Oerlemans, 1989; Meier, 1990). Although

significantly reduced from the NRC (1987) figures, the latest estimate

nevertheless represents an increase of up to 7 times present rates. Locally,

increases could be still greater, depending on land subsidence factors.

Potential impacts of this accelerated sea level rise (SLR) include

inundation, increased shoreline retreat, and saltwater intrusion into coastal

aquifers and estuaries. While the coastal zone w? l! be permanently inundated

to an elevation equivalent to the vertical rise in sea level, episodic

flooding from storm waves and high surges could penetrate much further inland.

Enhanced erosion rates would threaten beaches and coastal structures.

Finally, increasing salinization of coastal aquifers, and upstream penetration

of saltwater resulting from the SLR, could contaminate drinking water supplies

and adversely affect agriculture. The effects of the global SLR on the

shoreline will be spatially nonuniform because of the presence of local

vertical crustal movements, differential resistance to erosion, varying wave

climates and longshore currents.

A coastal hazards data base, described here, is designed to assess the

differential vulnerability of the world's shorelines to inundation and erosion

factors, on regional to global scales, and to classify and map the spatial

distributions of high-risk coasts, in order to screen out targets for more

detailed study.

This data base contains information on seven variables, relating to

inundation and erosion hazards. These include: (1) relief (elevation), (2)

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lithology (rock type), (3) coastal landforms (geomorphology) , (4) vertical

land movements (relative sea level changes), (5) horizontal shoreline changes

(erosion or accretion), (6) tidal ranges, and (7) wave heights. Although not

specifically dealt with here, data on storm frequency and intensity have been

collected by others at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in a related study.

Storm surges and sediment transport, although also important factors, have not

been included at the present time. However, as the data are incorporated into

a Geographic Information System (GIS) , these layers can be added as additional

information becomes available.

Strictly speaking, in assessing the vulnerability of 'ht coasts to

future sea level rise, the impact of climate change on such variables as

winds, waves and storm surges should also be taken into consideration. For

example, hurricane intensity may increase in a double - C02 world (Emanuel,

1987). Because of the complexity of modelling the response of these variables

to climate change, the determination of their effects on the relative

vulnerability of coastal areas lies outside the scope of this paper. However,

any detrimental consequences will only be exacerabated by rising sea levels.

In this paper, we briefly discuss the methodology of constructing the

data base, and its application to the East Coast, U.S.A., as a test case. We

then evaluate the differential vulnerability of the East Coast, in terms of

the individual variables and the combination of these into a Coastal

Vulnerability Index. Procedures are still under development, and the outline

presented here provides a demonstration of the approach rather than a final

assessment.

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DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL HAZARDS DATA BASE

Data Base Components and Risk Classes

For the purposes of this paper, a vulnerable coastline is characterized

by low coastal relief, an erodible substrate (e.g. sand, unconsolidated

sediment), present and past evidence of subsidence, extensive shoreline

retreat, and high wave/tide energies. These attributes serve as guidelines

for the ranking scheme outlined in the following paragraphs.

Among the variables considered here, relief and vertical land movements

(particularly subsidence), are primarily indicators of inundation risk ^s a

simple means of determining relief, the average elevation of 5'latitutde-

longitude land data points, aggregated into 1/4° coastal cells, represents a

first-order approximation of the areal extent of inundation, suitable for a

global scale analysis. The ET0P05 Gridded World Elevations (5' lat- long

resolution, National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, Colorado), although

exhibiting some data quality problems, and relatively coarse resolution,

nevertheless represents the most complete global coverage currently available.

The elevation zone within 1 m faces the highest probability of permanent

inundation. However, the coastal strip within 5 m of present SL is also at

high risk to above normal tides from severe storm surges. The hazard

decreases progressively for higher average elevations (Table 1).

Vertical land movements are obtained from relative sea level trends ,

from a worldwide network of - 1000 tide-gauge stations (Pugh et al., 1987), of

which around 300 have usable records. The eastern U.S. is covered by 33

stations (Lyles et al., 1987). The relative sea level (RSL) change at each

locality includes a eustatic component (1-2 mm/yr, Görnitz and Lebedeff, 1987;

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 6

Peltier and Tushingham, 1989), as well as glacioiostatic , neotectonic and

local subsidence components. Subsiding areas, or those with RSL in excess of

the eustatic range (£ 2mm/yr) , regardless of ultimate cause, face greater

inundation hazards (Table 1) .

The other variables of the data base are associated with erodibility

risk. Bedrock lithology, shore materials, and coastal landforms vary

substantially in their relief, resistance to erosion, and stability. A

generalized scale of lithologie and géomorphologie vulnerability, based on

consideration of these factors is discussed in Görnitz and Kanciruk (1989) .

In general, high risk landforms are mobile or unstable, hence underlain by

unconsolidated sediments. In addition, these usually show low relief (e.g.

barrier coasts, mudflats, deltas, estuaries, etc. At lower risk are landforms

with harder substrates and higher relief (e.g. fiords, rocky coasts). Because

these factors are difficult to quantify, they are ranked into classes of

increasing risk (Table 1) .

Digitized historical U.S. shoreline changes, averaged into 3' cells,

come from the CEIS data base (Dolan et al., 1983; 1990). Rates within ±1 m

lie within the measurement error and are considered relatively stable, and

thus at moderately low risk. Shores with rates of -1 m/yr or less (more

negative) are eroding, and at relatively higher risk (Table 1). Conversely,

shores with rates > +1 m/yr are accreting, and at correspondingly low risk.

Waves and tidal currents actively transform the shoreline. Wave heights

are proportional to the square root of wave energy, which is related to the

capacity for erosion. On sandy beaches, the maximum significant (average of

upper 1/3) wave height is related to maximum shoreline displacement (Anders

and Reed, 1989) . Maximum significant wave heights are available from the Wave

2 OU

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Information Study (WIS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, for 166 nearshore

segments at roughly 10 mi (16 km) spacing along the East Coast (Jensen, 1983).

(The ranks assigned in Table 1 represent a full range of values, including the

West Coast) .

The tidal range is linked to both inundation and erosion hazards.

Although a large tidal range may dissipate wave energy, limiting beach or

cliff erosion to the brief period of high tide (Bird, 1985), it also

delineates a broad zone of intertidal wetlands, which will be most susceptible

to inundation following SLR. Furthermore, the velocity of tidal currents in

estuaries depends on the tidal range, as well as the asymmetry of the tidal

cycle and channel morphology (Pethick, 1984). Therefore, holding these other

factors constant, high tidal range is associated with stronger tidal currents,

capable of eroding and transporting sediment. Although not specifically dealt

with here, the tidal range is also important in determining the upper limit of

upstream saltwater intrusion. Therefore, macrotidal coasts (> 4 m) will be

more vulnerable than those with lesser ranges (Table 1). Tide range data are

listed in the annual Tide Tables (NOS, 1988).

Coastal Vulnerability Index

Because the data base comprises qualitative, as well as quantitative

information, at different scales and units, each variable for each coastal

segment has been assigned a rank from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the most

vulnerable class (highest risk; Table 1). These individual risk classes can

then be combined into a Coastal Vulnerability Index, CVI, which can be

computed as either the sum or product of the variables. The product has the

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advantage of expanding the range of values. On the other hand, it may be

quite sensitive to small changes in individual risk classes. Therefore, it

may be necessary to introduce a factor to dampen the extreme range. All

variables are weighted equally, since at this stage their relative

contribution has not yet been assessed.

Several indices have been examined. The simplest form of the CVI is the

geometric mean, or the product of the risk classes, divided by the number of

variables present (CVIj) . A modified geometric mean (CVI2) has been obtained

by first averaging the geology and geomorphology risk classes, which are

highly correlated in this region, and also the tide ranges and wave heights,

both of which actively shape the coastline (Davis and Hayes, 1984). CVI3 is

obtained as the average of the squares of the risk classes (Kimball et al.,

1985). Squaring each value emphasizes extreme events, which usually present

the greatest hazards. Finally, in order to compress the wide maximum range

computed by CVI!, CVI4 is taken as the square root of CVIļ. These 4

vulnerability indices have been tested on a set of 93 stations (point data) ,

including 59 along the East Coast.

All combinations of pairs of ranked CVI¿ were compared, using the

Spearman rank correlation coefficient (Till, 1974). This statistic ranges

between 0.91 and 1.00, indicating a very high degree of correlation (Table 2).

This suggests that any of the indices can be used as an indicator of relative

coastal hazards. Experimentation with the various CVI schemes and weighting

factors is still in progress. For the purposes of demonstration in this

paper, CVI4 has been used.

(1) CVIA - ļ jj (ai X a2 X a3 X

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variable, i ranging from 1 to 5, and n - 7. If one variable is missing (aA -

0), let aA - 1, and n - 6 . The total range of CVI was divided into four equal

parts, and the upper quarter was taken as "very high risk coastline." Based

on the frequency distribution by shorelength, this corresponds to the 96

percentile (or 4% of the East Coast is greater than or equal to CVI4 33.0).

Setting a fixed value of CVI as a cutoff can be used as a standard of

comparison from one coast to another. A CVI cutoff based on percent

shorelength (say the 90 percentile) is a relative measure, and assumes a fixed

proportion of coastline at high risk.

Examples of the calculation of CVI4 are now given for two contrasting

coastal sites.

(1) Eastport, Maine. The mean elevation for the 1/4° cell enclosing

Eastport is 31 m, which, according to the criteria of Table 1 places it into

class 1, with respect to relief. Thus a1 - 1 . Relative sea level rise is 2.7

mm/yr, falling into class 4. Thus a2 - 4 . The area is underlain by resistant

igneous rocks, forming an embayed, rocky coast; thus a3 and a4 are 1 and 1,

respectively. The shoreline is stable (a5 - 3). Maximum wave heights are

around 4.4 m (a6 - 2), and mean tidal range is 5.6 m (a7 - 4). CVI4 -

(96/7)1/2 - 3.70.

(2) Ocean City, Maryland. Here, the mean elevation is only 2 m above

present sea level (aA - 5). Relative sea level rise is around 3.1 mm/yr, so

a2 - 4. (This is the value for the nearest tide-gauge station at Lewes,

Delaware. However, most tide-gauge records in the Chesapeake Bay- Delaware Bay

area yield sea level trends between 3.0 - 4.0 mm/yr [Lyles et al., 1981]).

The shore is a sandy beach on a barrier island (a3 and a4 are 5 and 5,

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 10

respectively). Ocean City has had a long history of serious erosion,

requiring extensive beach nourishment projects (Pilkey and Clayton, 1989).

CEIS gives an average erosion rate of - 8.8 m/yr (a5 - 5). Maximum wave

heights are 4.7 m (a6 - 2), and mean tidal ranges around 3.5 m (a7 - 3).

CVI4 - (15,000 /7) 1/2 - 46.3

Data Entry into the Geographic Information System (GIS)

The ARC/INFO GIS (ESRI, Inc.) software at ORNL can relate and manipulate

data in various formats and spatial resolutions, such as (1) point data (e.g.

tide-gauge stations), (2) line or arc data (lithology, landforms, waves), (3)

polygons or cells (relief, shoreline displacements; Görnitz and Kanciruk,

1989) . Each variable forms a feature class (coverage) , which can be displayed

graphically. Individual feature classes can be superposed, and areas with a

common set of attributes can be identified.

Some of the data sets differ in the continuity of coverage. For the

East Coast, where sea level variations are regionally coherent, and

neotectonic activity rather subtle (Görnitz and Seeber, 1990), intermediate

segments of the shoreline have been assigned to a risk class, interpolating

values from adjacent tide-gauge stations. Data for tide ranges are closely

spaced and fall into well-defined clusters, to which ranks are assigned based

on Table 1. Gaps in the CEIS shoreline data were handled as follows. In

Maine, rocky coasts were assumed to be stable (Dr. S.M. Dickson, Maine Geol.

Survey, priv. comm., 1989). In Connecticut and parts of Massachusetts,

erosion trends were assessed from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National

Shoreline Study (1971). No erosion data are available for the Everglades, or

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for many estuaries and lagoons. Missing elevation data for low- lying Cape

Hatteras and Florida Keys were assumed to be close to zero. Wave data are

only available for the open coasts, but not for the major bays, estuaries or

lagoons, which however constitute a significant proportion of the coastal

zone, south of New Jersey.

RESULTS

The total East Coast shoreline from Maine to Key West, Florida is

22,388 . ' m* (including bays and estuaries). Estuaries represent the

dominant landform along the East Coast (41.9% by length), followed by barrier

coasts (18.2%), and lagoons (15.3%). Rocky, glaciated coasts (Maine) occupy

12.3% of the shore, while glacial deposits (mostly on Cape Cod and Long

Island) form 6.0% (Appendix 1). Around three-quarters of the East Coast is

underlain by unconsolidated sediments, the balance divided between crystalline

(igneous/me tamo rphic) rocks (13.2%) and sedimentary rocks (10.2%),

predominantly in New England (Appendix 1) . Elevations range from a high of

100 m (central Maine) to near sea-level along barrier coasts. Around two-

thirds of the East Coast is relatively stable (shoreline displacement within ±

1 m/yr) , with 25.2% eroding and 7.7% accreting (based upon the length of coast

for which data are available, Fig. 1).

The East Coast is subsiding. Rates of sea level rise exceeding 2 mm/yr

affect 89.0% of the region (Fig. 1). These rates are 1.5-2 times the global

eustatic range of 1-2 mm/yr. About half of the SLR along the East Coast can

Because of some overlap between the three regional segments in the

ARC/INFO System, the sum of the segments is greater than the entire coastlength.

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be attributed to continuing glacio- isostatic adjustments, in particular the

collapse of the peripheral bulge, following déglaciation (Peltier, 1986;

Görnitz and Seeber, 1990).

Values of CVI<, for the East Coast range between 1.79 and 46.29. The

median value (by shorelength) is 10.12, while the upper and lower quartiles

are 15.12 and 6.87, respectively (Table 3). The East Coast can be divided for

convenience into three regions, that also differ in geologic and terrain

characteristics, described in more detail below (Fig. 2).

New England (Maine L'irough Connecticut)

The New England coastline (4496.2 km) consists of 63.4% strongly to

weakly embayed rocky, glaciated shores. While beaches constitute 20.9% of the

total New England shoreline, 39.7% of these occur on unconsolidated glacial

deposits, 13.9% are pocket beaches, and 46.4% are coastal plain and barrier

beaches. Geologically, 66.8% of the New England shore is underlain largely by

Paleozoic and Precambrian crystalline rocks (igneous, metamorphic) , 9.6% is on

sedimentary rocks, and 23.6% on unconsolidated sediments (Appendix 1).

In this region, 39.9% of the shore lies at an average altitude of 10 m

or less (Fig. 1). The average regional elevation is 13.2 m, ranging from a

high of 100 m in central Maine, to near sea level in parts of Cape Cod (Fig.

3), and rocky skerries in Maine. Only 6.8% of the coastline is eroding at

rates of - 1 m/yr or greater, 2.2% more than -2 m/yr (Fig. 1). Erosion rates

on the ocean-facing shores of Nantucket, southeast Martha's Vineyard and

eastern Cape Cod reach -3.5 to -4.5 m/yr (Fig. 3). These highly eroding

sections are formed on unconsolidated glacial sediments (moraine, drift,

outwash) . On the other hand, the spit at the northern end of Cape Cod is

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accreting at rates of up to +4.5 m/yr, due to WNW sand transport.

Tidal ranges are predominantly high microtidal to mesotidal (Fig. 1).

There is a progressive decrease southward from northern Maine (>6.1 m) , to

Connecticut (1.0-1.9 m) , increasing again toward the western end of Long Island

Sound (2.0-4.0 m) . Maximum wave heights in New England are only moderately high

(Fig. 1), with regional maxima on Martha's Vineyard (5.1 m) and Nantucket (5.2

m) , off Cape Cod. The regional RSL, ranges from 1.8 mm/yr to 2.7 mm/yr.

Values of CV IA for New England range between 2.31 and 35.86. The median

value is 7.85, while the upper quartile is 10.75 (Table 3). Figure 4 shows the

distribution of CVI<, values > 33.0 for the Cape Cod region.

Mid-Atlantic Coast (New York to Virginia)

The East Coast, south of New England, lies on poorly consolidated to

unconsolidated Mesozoic to Holocene Coastal Plains sediments. Long Island, like

Cape Cod, is formed largely of glacial moraine and outwash deposits. Although

barrier islands and associated lagoons are well -developed along the south shore

of Long Island, the New Jersey coast and the eastern shore of the Delmarva

Peninsula, the region as a whole is dominated by two major estuaries: Delaware

Bay and Chesapeake Bay, both of which are river valleys submerged by the post-

glacial marine transgression. The estuarine environment occupies 64% of the

shorelength, with coastal plain beaches, barriers and lagoons comprising only

26.3%. Unconsolidated sediments form 99.1% of the shore. Beaches occupy 14.3%

(1243.1 km) of the total shorelength. Of the beaches, 65.0% are located on

barriers or coastal plains, 21% are along estuaries and 14.0% on glacial debris

(e.g. Long Island). Marshes constitute 26.3% of the mid- Atlantic coast, 41.8% of

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which occur along estuaries, 41.8% are associated with lagoons and only 11.8%

are on barriers (Appendix 1) .

Elevations, in general, are lower than in New England. Here, 64.2% of

the coastline is 10 m or less, and nearly half is 5 m or less (Figs. 1, 5).

The average regional elevation is 8.9 m, ranging from highs of up to 70 m on

the western shore of Chesapeake Bay, to near sea level, along much of the

barrier coasts. Because of the prevalence of sandy sediments and relatively

mobile landforms throughout the region, nearly the entire coast is stable or

eroding (Figs. 1, 5). However, erosion rates are extremely variable,

particularly near tidal inlets. Severe erosion (<-2 m/yr) occurs on the

barrier beaches of Jones Island, New York, central New Jersey and especially

the southern Delmarva Peninsula, where several islands are retreating at rates

exceeding -10 m/yr. On the other hand, some of the inlets and spits are

accreting rapidly, adjacent to severely eroding beaches. For example, the

western tip of Jones Beach, New York, is accreting at 3.4 m/yr while the

center is eroding at 2 . 2 m/yr. Other high accretion rates occur at Cape

Henlopen, Delaware (5 m/yr) and northern Brigantine Island, New Jersey (25.5

m/yr) .

Tidal ranges decrease southward from New York toward Chesapeake Bay, as

the continental shelf narrows. The Chesapeake Bay estuary lies in a

microtidal environment, in spite of a highly indented shore, with numerous

tributaries. Regional maximum wave heights on the open coast are moderate,

ranging between 3.8 and 5.2 m, the latter occurring on the south Delmarva

Peninsula.

The mid-Atlantic region is marked by above average RSL rise (>3 mm/yr) ,

which roughly coincides with a zone of maximum peripheral bulge collapse south

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of the edge of the former Wisconsin ice sheet (Walcott, 1972). Sediment

compaction or groundwater withdrawal could also contribute to part of the

anomalously high trends along the New Jersey coast (Davis, 1987). Although

glacioisostatic and eustatic factors account for much of the apparent RSL

rise, a significant residual trend remains (as much as 15 to 30% in the

southern part of Chesapeake Bay) , which suggests possible neotectonic or

anthropogenic activity such as groundwater withdrawal (Görnitz and Seeber,

1990).

In the mid-Atlantic region, CVI4 ranges between 1.79 and 46.29. Here,

the median CVI4 is 10.79 and the upper quartile is l4 . 57 (Table 3). Areas

with CVI4 scores of 33.0 or greater are shown in Fig. 6.

Southeast Atlantic (North Carolina to Florida)

In the southeast Atlantic region, 81.8% of the shoreline (8942.7) km

lies on unconsolidated sediments; the remainder (1982.5 km) is chiefly

limestone (Florida). Barriers constitute 26.1% of the total regional

shorelength, lagoons 22.3% and estuaries another 39.2%, with the remainder

mostly mangroves and reefs. Marshes occupy 45.2% of the coastline, of which

58.4% are located in estuaries and 25.0% along lagoonal coasts, the remainder

on reefs or back-barriers. Nearly all beaches in this region occur on barrier

islands .

The southeast is the lowest region on the East Coast (av. elevation

2.13 m, ranging from 34 m west of St. Augustine, and 11m closer to the coast,

to near sea level on the Outer Banks, North Carolina and the Southern

Everglades and Florida Keys). Around 96.1% of the shoreline is 10 m or less;

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81.6% is 5 m or less (Figs. 1, 7, 9).

Around 51.1% of the mapped coastline is stable (within ± 1 m) , while

30.2% is eroding, and 18.7% is accreting. Severe erosion occurs at numerous

barrier beaches along the South Carolina and Georgia coasts; also the exposed

Cape Hatteras (Fig. 7), North Carolina and Cape Canaveral, Florida (Fig. 9).

Erosion rates south of Cape Canaveral, Florida are fairly low, except for

Jupiter Island (-1.8 m) (Fig. 9). However, shoreline displacement trends are

spatially highly variable. This may be partly attributed to the relative

roles of tidal and wave processes in the Georgia Embayment. The Georgia and

southern South Carolina coasts are characterized by a series ¡. estuarine

embayments flanked by short and thick barrier islands. The shoreline position

is governed by a balance between tidal currents and breaking waves. Tidal

ranges grade from microtidal (<2 m) conditions in North Carolina to mesotidal

(2-4 m) conditions along the Georgia coast, and back to microtidal in Florida.

Seaward shoals, off tidal inlets . refract incoming waves, causing rapid erosion

on one section of beach, while nearby, wave energy is reduced, and sand

buildup can occur, particularly near ebb-tidal deltas (Kana, 1989).

Maximum wave heights throughout the region range between 2.4 and 5.9m.

Regional highs occur north of Cape Hatteras (5.9m), and north of Cape

Canaveral (5.1-5.2 m) .

Along the southeast Atlantic coast, RSL trends for stations between Key

West, Florida and Wilmington, North Carolina range between 1.8-3.4 mm/yr. The

RSL trend for Wilmington (1.8 mm/yr; Lyles et al., 1987) is somewhat lower

than those of adjacent stations, which may reflect continuing uplift along the

Cape Fear arch (Braatz and Aubrey, 1987). The relatively high trends at

Savannah (3.0 mm/yr) and Charleston (3.4 mm/yr) may be largely caused by

2 i (>

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 17

groundwater withdrawal (Davis, 1987); however, given the historic seismicity

in Charleston (magnitude « 7, 1886), neotectonic subsidence remains a

possibility.

In the southeast Atlantic region, CVI4 ranges between 3.0 and 46.3. The

quartiles (by length) are: 6.76 (25%), 11.19 (50%) and 16.61 (75%) (Table 3).

The occurrence of CVI4 > 33.0 for southern Florida is shown in Fig. 10.

DISCUSSION

Of the three subdivisions of the East Coast, New England is the le « :

vulnerable to future SLR, except for parts of Cape Cod (Fig. 4). This is due

to the comparatively greater proportion of resistant rock types and landf orms ,

and more elevated terrain, even although, in general, wave heights and tidal

ranges are higher than further south, and the coast is also subsiding (Fig. 1,

Appendix 1). Not unexpectedly, greater proportions of the Coastal Plains

shoreline, south of New York fall into the high to very high risk classes (4,

5) for most variables (Figs. 1, 5). The relief decreases going southward, as

non-resistant rock types and landforms predominate. The Southern Delmarva-

Cape Hatteras region ranks among the most vulnerable i*because of above average

erosion rates, high wave energies, and subsidence, in addition to the

previously-mentioned factors (Figs. 5-8). Tide ranges are higher in the

Georgia embayment, although conversely, wave heights are reduced. On the

other hand, Florida south of Cape Canaveral ranks relatively low risk, in

spite of low elevation, prevalence of barrier- lagoon complexes and presence of

unconsolidated sediments (Figs. 9, 10). Here, tide-ranges are microtidal, and

wave energies decrease southward. Erosion rates are relatively low, except

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 18

for the stretch between the St. Lucie and Jupiter Inlets (av. -1.8 m/yr) .

The data base currently lacks information on storm frequencies or

surges, and population densities. Incorporation of these additional risk

factors into the CVI could lead to revision of the overall vulnerability

assessment, as presently determined. For example, southern Florida has a 5-

16% probability of experiencing a hurricane (winds > 73 mph) in any given

year, as compared to a 8-11% probability off Cape Hatteras. (These two areas

have the highest hurricane probabilities along the U.S. East Coast). If

"great" hurricanes are considered (winds > 125 mph) , the probability for

southern Florida is 5-7% as compared to 2-4% for Cape Hatteras (U.S. Dept.

Commerce, 1976).

On the other hand, destructive waves and storms along the U.S. East

Coast are largely caused by extratropical cyclones. These increase in

frequency, latitudinally , from a mean of 5 per year in southern Florida, to a

mean of 20 per year, north of New Jersey, during the period 1885-1978 (Hayden,

1981). Although New England experiences the highest number of cyclones per

year, the damaging effects are largely offset by the relatively resistant

substrate. However, the mid- Atlantic region is more vulnerable (in terms of

erodibility) to the damaging effects of the still fairly high number of severe

storms .

Another component of coastal vulnerability is the population per

shoreline mile (coastal population of each state divided by the tidal

shorelength mileage) . Florida has the highest shoreline density (by this

definition) south of New Jersey (2075/shore mile in Florida vs. 158 in

Georgia, 303 in South Carolina, 202 in North Carolina and 1,133 in Virginia;

Culliton et al., 1990). Thus, if coastal population is considered as another

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 19

risk factor, Florida may rate ahead of the other high risk areas south of New

Jersey.

The results to date are suggestive of relative patterns of coastal

vulnerability. However, the final version of the CVI, using appropriate

weighting factors and possible additional layers of information is still under

development .

CONCLUSIONS

This report provides preliminary statistical summaries and data

analyses, for a coastal hazards data base, covering the East Coast, U.S.A.

Each of seven variables, relating to coastal inundation or erosion hazards,

has been assigned a rank ranging from 1 to 5 , based on the relative risk

factor. These risk factors are then combined into an overall coastal

vulnerability index, CVI. Several versions of the CVI have been proposed.

Since most are based on the product of the variables, they are highly

correlated. For the purpose of illustration, the CVI used is the square root

of the geometric mean of the risk classes. By the criteria of coastal

vulnerability as defined in this study, the sections of coasts with the

highest CVI ratings include the Atlantic coast of the Delmarva Peninsula,

northern Cape Hatteras , parts of New Jersey, Georgia and South Carolina.

Southern Florida does not rank as high. Although it is very vulnerable to

inundation due to low elevation, and to erosion due to high risk rock types

and landforms, nevertheless historic rates of erosion, wave heights and tide

ranges are considerably lower than in the above-mentioned areas. On the other

hand, if storm frequencies, intensities and surges, as well as coastal

populations per shorelength were to be included as additional risk factors,

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 20

south Florida could attain a higher vulnerability rating than under the

present set of criteria.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research was supported by the U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of

Energy Research, under contract DE - AC05 - 840R 21400 with Martin Marietta

Energy Systems, Inc. and Subcontract MRETTA 19x - 91348V with Columbia

University. The deepest appreciation is expressed to Ms. Tammy White, ORNL,

for a major effort in GIS data entry, analysis and production of coastal risk

maps and to Mr. Robert M. Cushman, ORNL, for his helpful advice and

encouragement. Programming assistance was provided by Mr. Z.Y. Zhang and Mr.

Jack Jia. Thanks are also extended to Dr. D.T. Pugh, Director, Permanent

Service for Mean Sea Level, Bids ton Observatory, England for sending tide-

gauge records, to Dr. J. Hubbard, National Ocean Service, NOAA, Rockville, MD

for providing a complete set of Tide Tables; and to Dr. J. Hubertz, U.S. Army

Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, MS for sending Wave Information Study (WIS)

data. A tape of CEIS shoreline displacement data for the U.S. was obtained

from Prof. R. Dolan, U. Virginia, Charlottesville, VA and the tape of ET0P05

digital relief data came from the National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder,

Colorado.

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 25

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 26

Table 2 . Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients for Coastal

Vulnerability Indices

CVIi vs. CVI2 0.930

CVIi vs. CVI3 0.912 CVI2 vs. CVI« 0.930

CVIj vs. CVI 4 1.000 CVI3 vs. CVI« 0.912

CVI2 vs. CVI3 0.893

27

Table 3. Coastal Vulnerability Index-Statistical Distribution

REGION RANGE LOWER QUART I LE MEDIAN UPPER QUART I LE

EAST COAST(entire) 1.79-46.29 6.87 10.12 15.12

NEW ENGLAND 2.31-35.86 5.06 7.85 10.75

MID-ATLANTIC 1.79-46.29 7.02 10.79 14.57

SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC 3.0-46.29 6.76 11.19 16.61

2 2 it

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1. Relative shore proportions of coastal risk classes (based on Table 1),

for the East Coast and subregions. 0 indicates no data or unclassified.

22 6

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 Maine^- f
44° p Nova Scotia
N Massachusetts^
C^ Rhode Massachusetts^ uJ'> NEW ENGLAND
New

40° - New Jersey y Long Island

Maryland ļļf ^Delaware Bay <

- Yy/Delmarva Peninsula
Virginia |C_ Chesapeake Bay
36° - North ~
Carolina ^/Cape Hatteras

"" ^^Cape Fear

./South Carolina
32° -/Georgia -South Carolina

<

28° - ' Florida

24° I

82° W 78° 74° 70° 66° 62° 58° 56°

2. Index map of the East Coast

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3. Cape Cod area. The heavy line indicates the very high risk coastal

segments (class 5 of Table 1) for four individual variables of the data

base. (A-rock type, B-land form, C-relief, and D-shoreline

displacement.)

22 8

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4. Cape Cod area. Distribution of CVI values greater than or equal to 33.0

(heavy line) .

Ü 2 !)

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5. Mid-Atlantic region (Long Island to Chesapeake Bay). Same explanation

as Fig. 3.

23 0

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S. Mid- Atlantic region. Distribution of CVI values greater than or equal

to 33.0 (heavy line).

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7. Cape Hatteras - Myrtle Beach. Same explanation as Fig, 3.

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8. Cape Hatteras - Myrtle Beach. Distribution of CVI values greater than

or equal to 33.0 (heavy line).

23

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9. Southern Florida. Same explanation as Fig. 3.

2o'

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10. Southern Florida. CVI values greater than or equal to 33.0.

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 28

Appendix 1. Relative Shorelength of Landforms and Rock Types for the East
Coast and Subregions

Łandform Percent Beaches Mashes

Rocky, glaciated coast 12.3 0.5 0.2

Estuaries 41.9 0.8 15.5
Coastal plain beach 0.8 0.5
Barrier coast 18.2 15.0 3.1
Lagoonal coast 15.3 0.2 9.5
Glacial deposit 6.0 2.1 0.6
Reef 1.4 - 1.4
Mangrove 3.5
Other 0 . 6 -

100.0 18.6 30.3

Rock type Perçent

Resistant, crystalline rocks 13.2

Sedimentary rocks 10.2
Sand 31.3
Other unconsolidated sediments 45 . 3
100,0

NEW ENGLAND

Landform Percent Beaches

Rocky, glaciated coast 63.4 2.9

(incl . cliff)
Estuaries 10.4
Coastal plain beach 1.2 1.2
Barrier coast 8.6 8.5
Glacial deposits 15.2 8.3
Other 1.2 -
100,0 20^9 %

Rock Type Percent

Resistant, crystalline rocks 66.8

Sedimentary rocks 9 . 6
Unconsolidated sediments 23 . 6
100.0

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 29

MID-ATLANTIC STATES

Łandform Percent Beaches Marshes

Estuaries 64.0 3.0 11.0

Coastal plain 0.8 Ì
Barrier coast 13.2 J 9.3 3.1
Lagoonal coast 12.3 - 11.0
Glacial deposits 9.2 2.0 1.2
Other 0.6

100.1 14.3 % 26.3 %

Rock Tvoe Percent

Resistant, crystalline rocks 0.7

Sedimentary rocks 0.2
Sand 52.1
Mud and silt 0.8
Glacial till 0.7
Calcareous sediment 2 . 6
Mixed or undifferentiated 42 . 9
100.0

SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC

Landform Percent Beaches Marshes

Estuaries 39.2 0.1 26.4

Coastal plain beach 0.8 0.8
Barrier coast 26.1 20.4 4.3
Lagoonal coast 22.3 0.4 11.3
Reef 3.2 - 3.2
Mangrove 7.7
Other 0.8

100.1 21.7 % 45.2 %

Rock Type Percent

Sedimentary rocks 18.1

Sand 22.9
Mud, silt 4.6
Calcareous sediment 11.8
Mixed lithology 6.9
Undifferentiated sediment 35.3
Other 0.4
100.0

2oV

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