APPLICATION OF I.T.

IN
WEATHER FORECASTING

What Is A Weather
Forecast?
Weather forecasting is predicting what
the weather will be like at a certain time
in the near future, in a given location.
Weather forecasts are made by
collecting quantitativedataabout the
current state of the atmosphere at a
given place and usingscientific
understanding of atmospheric
processto project how the atmosphere
will change.
Different situations need different types

For example,
Take one situation of a Plane Pilot.
Captain Ryan Jet is about to land a plane at Wellington Airport in New Zealand.

What does he need to know as he brings the plane in for landing?

The aircraft pilot needs to

know about:
1.Visibility
2.The probability of fog
3.Precipitation
4.Wind speed
5.Wind direction
6.probability of frost or ice

Why Weather Forecasting Important?

Weather forecasting is important for a number of
reasons:
1. The first, main reason is that it saves lives.
Weather forecasting helps when things like natural
disasters occur such as tornadoes, floods,
hurricanes.
For example, people who live near the water
need to know if there is a hurricane coming
towards them in advance so they can prepare for
it and evacuate. Weather forecasting can predict
when those natural disasters are imminent.

The more warning people have the better they can prepare and the least
likely they are to die due to such natural disasters.
2.It helps in following farm operation:
I)To irrigate the crop or not
II)When to apply fertilizer or not.
III)Whether to start complete
harvesting or to withhold it.
3. It helps in transportation and storage of food grains.

Fore ca s ting w ea the r in the pa st

In the 1920s weather balloons, which

would provide weather data such as
temperature and wind at various levels
of the atmosphere, were launched from
different locations.
Once we had this upper air data, the first
forecast models were devised.
By the late 1940s weather radar was
launched. By the late 1980s Doppler
radar was developed.

source: http://www.cocorahs.org/media/docs/radar_basics.df

How a weather radar works ?

Sending radar pulses

Listening for return signals
Determining height
Calibrating intensity of return

Radar now allowed meteorologists to view and

display severe weather systems as well.
This increased the accuracy and timing of
weather watches and warnings.
They were now able to give people advanced
warning on Thunderstorms and tornadoes like
we never even imagined.

Why is weather so hard to predict

accurately?
People rely on forecasts for everything from
safely landing an aircraft to running an outdoor
event, but it's actually very hard for weather
forecasters to be 100 per cent accurate about
what the weather is going to do.
Weather can change rapidly and often, so
meteorologists speak about the chance of rain
or sunshine in terms of percentages. They can
never be absolutely sure of future weather
events.

Using a computer to predict the weathe

It was not until the 20th century that advances in
the understanding of atmospheric physics led to
the foundation of modern numerical weather
prediction.
In 1922, English scientistLewis Fry
Rechordsonpublished "Weather Prediction By
Numerical Process after finding notes and
derivations he had worked upon.
Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of
thousands of people performing the calculations
and passing them to others.

 However, the sheer number of calculations required was

too large to be completed without the use of computers,
and the size of the grid and time steps led to unrealistic
results in deepening systems.
The first computerized weather forecast was performed
by a team led by the mathematicianJohn Von Nuemann.
Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in
1955, spurred by the development of programmable
electroniccomputers.
It's not enough to merely get weather data, however
clever your apparatus for collecting it - To forecast the
weather, you need to be able to use the data to predict
what's going to happen next in the atmosphere.
Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative numerical - data about the current state of the
atmosphere.

->In mathematical models, raw data is entered into a

computer.

-> A series of calculations is performed on the raw data on it

to determine how it will change over time.

-> Normally, mathematical modelling is done by computers,

which can carry out many calculations per second.

-> In the case of weather models, data such as rain fall,

temperature and wind speed are fed into a computer.

-> The computer performs calculations using equations

produced from the scientific understanding of atmospheric
processes, such as fluid dynamics and thermodynamic
equations

New Technology Allows Better

Extreme Weather Forecasts

-> Stronger or more frequent weather extremes will

likely occur under climate change, such as more
intense downpours and stronger hurricane winds.

-> Improved weather prediction, therefore, will be

vital to giving communities more time to prepare for
dangerous storms, saving lives and minimizing
damage to infrastructure.

-> New radar technology will allow forecasters to

better see extreme weather, as will potential
improvements to satellite technology, as well as
computer models that run on more powerful
supercomputers.

U.C.A.R, INDIA JOIN FORCES ON

WEATHER TECHNOLOGY AND
PREDICTION

-> U.S. atmospheric researchers and their counterparts in

India will join forces to advance weather forecasting and
technology under a new agreement between the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the India
Ministry of Earth Sciences.
-> The memorandum of understanding (MOU) will support
collaborations to improve forecasts of major weather
events in India, including monsoonal rains that are critical
for growing crops that feed hundreds of millions of people
-> The MOU covers scientists at NCAR, UCAR, and UCAR's
100-plus member universities. In India, it covers a range of
institutions and scientists funded by the India Ministry of
Earth Sciences.

Collaborations are expected to involve research on aircraft and radar technology.

-> One of the first collaborations is expected to focus on a new technology that produces highly detailed measurements of wind
in the lower atmosphere.

-> Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), have developed a 449-MHz Modular Radar Wind Profiler.
-> With its adaptable design ; the wind profiler may be set up as a network of radars to take measurements as high as the
stratosphere. Such observations can improve forecasts of monsoons, thunderstorms, frontal systems, and other weather events.

FUTURE
Indian satellite to boost
weather forecasting accuracy
->Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 5 (IANS) India is
expected to launch the INSAT 3D satellite later this
year to boost its weather forecasting accuracy
according to Shailesh Naik, Secretary in India's
Ministry of Earth Sciences

->"The country will achieve more accuracy level

within a few years in short-term and long-term
weather forecasts," Naik said at the ongoing 97th
Indian Science Congress.

-> The country has now 77 percent accuracy

level in short-term weather forecast, which "will
improve further with the launching of INSAT 3D.
-> INSAT-3D is a pure meteorological satellite
without additional communication payload as in
the other INSAT satellites. It features some
extraordinary meteorology related payloads.

THANK YOU