Data science in weather

forecasting

Ashutosh Kumar |B.TECH CSE(Data Analytics) | 17SCSE112011

Deepak Bisht | B.TECH CSE(Data Analytics) | 17SCSE112014
Himanshu Kumar| B.TECH CSE(Data Analytics) | 17SCSE112007
OBJECTIVE:-

The objective of our project is to study different models and

methods used for correct weather forecasting using data
science techniques.
Now-a-days we have different kinds of weather problems
and to counter these problems we have programmed
different algorithms and software to predict the future
weather and also warn people about any natural disaster in
advance.
Data science has term big data which is a term that
describes the large volume of data both structured and
unstructured , it refers to the huge data sets obtained from
various sources such as social media, sensor data, public
data, transactions and data warehouse appliances. Data is
getting collected at very fast rate, things really are speeding
up. The amount of stored information grows four times faster
than the world economy, while the processing power of
computers grows nine times faster
Big data is bringing big change; it has reshaped many areas
like public health, internet companies and business.
Basically big data has 3 characteristics:
1) Extremely large volume of data
2) Extremely high volume of data
3) Extremely wide variety of data.
To convert this data into actionable information we need big
data analytics. Big data analytics is the process of examining
large data sets to learn market trends, customer preferences
and other useful business information. It can be a powerful
tool to handle existing challenge. One of its applications is in

PAGE 1
Weather Forecasting as it can anticipate problems caused
by weather before they occur. Weather is everything that
affects our lives on a daily basis and has power to make
permanent changes into person’s life and the society,
economy and environment. To what extent weather will
affect our lives depends on various factors such as type of
event, timing, duration, Importance, location etc. Parameters
of weather are temperature , humidity ,and wind speed.
According to Weather Analytics, 33% of worldwide GDP is
affected by the weather . For this reason, accurate
forecasting has become an important task powered by big
data analytics . Previously forecast were done by human
forecaster but now as we are in the era of data we have
developed ways for accurate and quicker weather forecast
based on data. We now have various models to predict
weather. These days numerical weather prediction model
(NWP) is used to predict weather along with the various
permutations of different models. NWP is a computerized
model of the atmosphere which, given an initial state for the
atmosphere, derived from observations, can generate
forecasts of how the weather will evolve into the future.
Since various models using big data for forecasting came
into existence the accuracy of weather forecasts has
increased making society becoming more sensitive to
weather, thereby increasing the number of people's using
this information in their daily lives. National weather service
provide the weather forecasts to public and some specific
sectors. Weather forecasting has many applications ; areas
where weather forecasting has shown great changes are
business , tourism , sports , and energy generation .

PAGE 2
ABSTRACT:-

Increasing evidence of climate change worldwide is becoming

the reason to understand a lot more about the weather -
everything from what's going to happen tomorrow to what's
coming next year. To forecast weather we need to analyze a
large set of data therefore use of big data in weather
forecasting will provide numerous advantages such as saving
lives, improving the quality of life, reducing risks, enhancing
profitability and humanity. Previously forecast were done by
human forecaster but now as we are in the era of data we have
developed ways for accurate and quicker weather forecast
based on data. Weather forecasting and climate monitoring
are one of the areas that involve complex processes in
meteorology . Weather parameters should be determined
with very high level of accuracy, timely and controlled
environment to increase accuracy of the forecasts and climate
monitoring. The problem of inaccuracy , time consumption ,
missing data , data loss , transmission of weather reports and
climate data analysis ,can be solved by the understanding the
importance and use data science in weather forecasting. Some
examples of these domains include Forecasting Solar Power
for Utility Operations, large-scale crop production forecasts
for global food security, in precision agriculture for future
farming and space weather forecasting. In order to know how
these applications could impact normal operations this paper
defines various weather forecasting applications and technical
challenges.

PAGE 3
LITEARTURE SURVEY :-

The weather has destroyed cities, damage has cost trillions of

dollars, and tragic events have killed thousands of people, globally.
Thankfully, these terrible aspects of weather do not affect most
people, but the weather still plays a role in the lives of every
person on Earth. Trying to understand the weather is not new.
Many different cultures had , and still have, gods and shrines
dedicated to the very topic. Today, as humanity turns to the
future and pushes boundaries in science and technology, weather
prediction could be much better.
Disaster Number Frequency Losses(USD Avg.Cost.(USD Deaths
of billions) Billions)
events
Drought 24 11.3% $232.5 $9.7 2,933

Flooding 28 13.2% $118.7 $4.2 540

Freeze 8 3.8% $27.3 $3.4 162

Severe 89 42% $200 $2.2 1,578

Storm
Tropical 35 16.5% $580.7 $16.6 3,210
cyclone
Wildfire 14 6.6% $35.6 $2.5 184

Winter 14 6.6% $42.7 $3.1 1,013

Storm
All 212 100% $1,237.5 $3.8 9,680
Disaster

The ability to predict the weather accurately is important.

Understanding the weather can help people to plan for the future,
which can improve planning for things from commutes, to

PAGE 4
livelihoods. Weather prediction is not an easy task. There is an
array of different factors , methods, and data need to be understood
before accurate weather prediction can be achieved.
Issues with Weather Prediction
Weather prediction has many different problems. Even the
simplest weather predictions are not perfect. The one-day forecast
typically falls within two degrees of the actual temperature .
Although this in accuracy is not bad, as predictions are made for
further in time. Also, when predicting precipitation, accuracy can
be even worse. Furthermore, weather prediction, in areas where the
climate lacks consistency, is off by even more. For example, in a
place like New England where temperatures have great variance
the temperature predictions are more inaccurate than a place like
the tropics.
Inaccuracies in weather prediction have different effects on
different people. To some people, these inaccuracies may mean
getting wet on the walk to the car or having to take off an extra
layer of clothes, but to others, these inaccuracies can lead to
unnecessary evacuations,home damage, and possibly death. Better
weather prediction would allow for better knowledge of when
evacuation is needed, when people need to board up their homes,
and when and where people are most going to need help.
Inaccurate weather prediction systems must be improved when so
much is at stake. However, in order to understand what needs to be
improved, it is important to understand how weather is currently
predicted .

PAGE 5
Different proposed methodology
Climatology:
The Climatology Method is another simple way of producing a
forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics
accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if
you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for
New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather
data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.
If you were making a forecast for temperature and precipitation,
then you would use this recorded weather data to compute the
averages for temperature and precipitation

Analog Method:
The Analog Method is a slightly more complicated method of
producing a forecast. It involves examining today's forecast
scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather
scenario looked very similar (an analog). For example, suppose
today is very warm, but a cold front is approaching your area. You
remember similar weather conditions one last week, also a warm
day with cold front approaching. You also remember how heavy
thunderstorms involved in the afternoon as the cold front pushed
through the area. Therefore, using the analog method, you would
predict that this cold front will also produce thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

Numerical Weather Prediction:

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses the power of
computers to make a forecast. Complex computer programs,
also known as forecast models, run on supercomputers and
provide predictions on many atmospheric variables such as
temperature, pressure, wind, and rainfall. A forecaster
examines how the features predicted by the computer will
interact to produce the day's weather.

PAGE 6
 TABULAR COMPARISION OF
PROPOSED METHODLOGIES:-

CLIMATOLOGY ANALOG NUMERICAL

MEHTOD
This method is most This method is
1. easy to apply and slightly
predict the weather More complicated
than climatology
WEATHER
PREDICTION
NWP is the most
complex method to
predict he weather.

This method Computation are High level

includes only also simple in computation are
2. simple analog method needed which are
computation like done on very high
taking average. specification
systems such as
super computer.

Climatology is Analog Method NWP is done

done by taking is done by using different
3. average of previous analysing data of computer
year temperature similar weather programs which
and other conditions in run complex
conditions. previous years computations to
predict weather

PAGE 7
FUTURE SCOPE:-
User can easily find out Weather condition by using
this system .The primary advantage of forecasting is
that it provides the business with valuable
information that the business can use to make
decisions about the future of the organization .
The weather forecast is necessary so that you would
know what weather you are having in your country,
or area. Also, so that you may know what activities
you can do for that day. For instance, you would
know that you can't go to the beach if the weather
forecast is rainy . Farmers need to know the weather
of their area also. A tractor in a field can become
hopelessly stuck if it is caught in heavy rain. Freezing
weather could cost a crop. This study shows that
using Data mining techniques for weather prediction
yields good results and can be considered as an
alternative to traditional metrological approaches.
The study describes the capabilities of various
sensors in predicting several weather phenomena
such as temperature, thunderstorms, rainfall. Hence
this project can help poor farmers for better farming.

PAGE 8
PAGE 9