SUMMARY OF FORECAST

Count Model Equation R^2 Adj R^2 MAPE

1 Linear L(t) = a + bt 0.7586 0.7103 3.76%

2 L(t) = a + bt^2
Quadtratic
3 L(t) = a + bt + ct^2
4 L(t) = a + bt^3
5 Cubic L(t) = a + bt^2 + ct^3
6 L(t) = a + bt + ct^2 + dt^3
ARY OF FORECAST

Growth
Remarks
Actual Predicted 1st 5 years 6th to 15th year
4.78% 4.14% 3.37% 2.41%
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth

2009 1 2,753.80 2,681 2.65%

2010 2 2,940.00 2,804 4.63% 6.76% 4.59%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,927 1.99% -2.38% 4.39%
2012 4 2,786.46 3,050 9.46% -2.91% 4.21%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,173 0.76% 13.02% 4.04%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,296 1.61% 3.02% 3.88%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,420 5.20% 11.18% 3.74%
2016 8 3,543 3.60%
2017 9 3,666 3.48%
2018 10 3,789 3.36%
2019 11 3,912 3.25%
2020 12 4,035 3.15%
2021 13 4,159 3.05%
2022 14 4,282 2.96%
2023 15 4,405 2.88%
2024 16 4,528 2.80%
2025 17 4,651 2.72%
2026 18 4,774 2.65%
2027 19 4,898 2.58%
2028 20 5,021 2.51%
2029 21 5,144 2.45%
2030 22 5,267 2.39%
2031 23 5,390 2.34%
2032 24 5,513 2.28%
2033 25 5,637 2.23%
2034 26 5,760 2.19%
2035 27 5,883 2.14%
2036 28 6,006 2.09%
2037 29 6,129 2.05%
2038 30 6,252 2.01%
2039 31 6,375 1.97%
2040 32 6,499 1.93%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.870967
R Square 0.758584
Adjusted R Square 0.7103
Standard Error 164.4166
Observations 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 424715.19925 424715.19925 15.7111 0.010703
Residual 5 135164.02486 27032.804971
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2557.535 138.95735464 18.405178475 8.709E-06 2200.334 2914.736 2200.334
X Variable 1 123.1601 31.071809094 3.9637234503 0.010703 43.28743 203.0327 43.28743
 Value
MAPE 3.76%
R 2
75.86%
Adj R 2
71.03%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.14%
1st 5yrs 3.37%
Next 20 years 2.41%

Coefficients
A 2557.534912
B 123.1600584
Upper 95.0%
2914.73616423354
203.03268640997
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 1,557 43.45%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,075 29.41% 6.76% 33.25%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,593 9.65% -2.38% 24.95%
2012 4 2,786.46 3,111 11.64% -2.91% 19.97%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,629 15.22% 13.02% 16.65%
2014 6 3,244.40 4,147 27.81% 3.02% 14.27%
2015 7 3,607.26 4,664 29.31% 11.18% 12.49%
2038 30 17,000.00
2016 8 5,182 11.10%
2017 9 5,700 9.99%
2018 10 6,218 9.08%
2019 11 6,736 8.33%
2020 12 7,254 7.69%
2021 13 7,772 7.14%
2022 14 8,289 6.66%
2023 15 8,807 6.25%
2024 16 9,325 5.88%
2025 17 9,843 5.55%
2026 18 10,361 5.26%
2027 19 10,879 5.00%
2028 20 11,396 4.76%
2029 21 11,914 4.54%
2030 22 12,432 4.35%
2031 23 12,950 4.17%
2032 24 13,468 4.00%
2033 25 13,986 3.85%
2034 26 14,504 3.70%
2035 27 15,021 3.57%
2036 28 15,539 3.45%
2037 29 16,057 3.33%
2038 30 16,575 3.23%
2039 31 17,093 3.12%
2040 32 17,611 3.03%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.986138
R Square 0.972468
Adjusted R Square 0.967879
Standard Error 885.3856
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 166129345.22 166129345.22 211.9246 6.591E-06
Residual 6 4703445.7787 783907.62979
Total 7 170832791

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Intercept 1039.503 405.58647713 2.5629635757 0.042738 47.06901 2031.938
X Variable 1 517.8483 35.572287229 14.557631806 6.591E-06 430.806 604.8905
 Value
MAPE 23.78%
R2 96.79%
Adj R 2
96.79%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 20.26%

1st 5yrs 9.24%

Next 20 years 4.54%

Coefficients
A 1039.5033677
B 517.84825999
 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
47.0690101443145 2031.937725258
430.806008798988 604.8905111852
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,744 0.34%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,793 5.01% 6.76% 1.76%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,873 0.11% -2.38% 2.88%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,986 7.15% -2.91% 3.92%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,131 0.59% 13.02% 4.85%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,308 1.95% 3.02% 5.65%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,517 2.51% 11.18% 6.32%
2016 8 3,758 6.86%
2017 9 4,032 7.28%
2018 10 4,338 7.58%
2019 11 4,676 7.79%
2020 12 5,046 7.92%
2021 13 5,448 7.97%
2022 14 5,882 7.98%
2023 15 6,349 7.93%
2024 16 6,848 7.86%
2025 17 7,379 7.75%
2026 18 7,942 7.63%
2027 19 8,538 7.50%
2028 20 9,165 7.35%
2029 21 9,825 7.20%
2030 22 10,517 7.04%
2031 23 11,241 6.89%
2032 24 11,998 6.73%
2033 25 12,786 6.57%
2034 26 13,607 6.42%
2035 27 14,460 6.27%
2036 28 15,345 6.12%
2037 29 16,262 5.98%
2038 30 17,211 5.84%
2039 31 18,193 5.70%
2040 32 19,207 5.57%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2
kW
2009 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 2,940.00
2011 3 9 2,870.00
2012 4 16 2,786.46
2013 5 25 3,149.32
2014 6 36 3,244.40
2015 7 49 3,607.26
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.931516
R Square 0.867722
Adjusted R 0.841267
Standard E 121.7041
Observatio 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 485819.79327 485819.79327 32.79932 0.002271
Residual 5 74059.430832 14811.886166
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2728.327 72.623470185 37.568114928 2.517E-07 2541.642 2915.011 2541.642
X Variable 16.09241 2.8098864228 5.7270690531 0.002271 8.869371 23.31546 8.869371
 Value
MAPE 2.52%
R2 86.77%
Adj R 2
84.13%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.23%
1st 5yrs 7.49%
Next 20 years 6.92%

Coefficients
A 2728.327
B 16.09241
C 0
 Upper 95.0%
2915.0114476791
23.315456573588
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,804 1.83%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,843 3.30% 6.76% 1.38%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,907 1.30% -2.38% 2.27%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,998 7.58% -2.91% 3.11%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,114 1.13% 13.02% 3.87%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,256 0.35% 3.02% 4.56%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,424 5.09% 11.18% 5.15%
2040 32 16,000.00 16,006
2016 8 3,617 5.65%
2017 9 3,837 6.07%
2018 10 4,082 6.39%
2019 11 4,353 6.64%
2020 12 4,650 6.82%
2021 13 4,972 6.94%
2022 14 5,321 7.01%
2023 15 5,695 7.03%
2024 16 6,095 7.02%
2025 17 6,521 6.99%
2026 18 6,972 6.93%
2027 19 7,450 6.85%
2028 20 7,953 6.76%
2029 21 8,482 6.65%
2030 22 9,037 6.54%
2031 23 9,618 6.43%
2032 24 10,225 6.31%
2033 25 10,857 6.18%
2034 26 11,515 6.06%
2035 27 12,199 5.94%
2036 28 12,909 5.82%
2037 29 13,644 5.70%
2038 30 14,406 5.58%
2039 31 15,193 5.46%
2040 32 16,006 5.35%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2
kW
2009 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 2,940.00
2011 3 9 2,870.00
2012 4 16 2,786.46
2013 5 25 3,149.32
 2014 6 36 3,244.40
2015 7 49 3,607.26
2040 32 1024 16,000.00

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999684
R Square 0.999368
Adjusted R Square 0.999262
Standard Error 124.6055
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 147202438.25 147202438.25 9480.697 7.908E-11
Residual 6 93159.252512 15526.542085
Total 7 147295597.51

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Intercept 2791.224 48.090513556 58.041054077 1.757E-09 2673.551 2908.897
X Variable 1 12.90501 0.1325373437 97.368869898 7.908E-11 12.5807 13.22932
 Year

Value 2015
MAPE 2.94% 2016
R2 99.94% 2017
Adj R 2
99.93% 2018
Growth 2019
Actual 4.78% 2020
Predicted 3.39% 2021
2022
1st 5yrs 6.31% 2023
Next 20 years 6.38% 2024
2025
Coefficients t Stat P-value 2026
Intercept a 2791.224 58.04105 1.757E-09 2027
X Variable 1 b 12.90501 97.36887 7.908E-11 2028
2029
2030
 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
2673.55085036841 2908.8973454648
12.580704175744 13.229318569648
Forecasted Power Percent
Demand Factor Loading
3607 0.94 76.75%
3617 0.94 76.96%
3837 0.94 81.63%
4082 0.94 86.85%
4353 0.94 92.61%
4650 0.94 98.93%
4972 0.94 105.79%
5321 0.94 113.20%
5695 0.94 121.17%
6095 0.94 129.68%
6521 0.94 138.74%
6972 0.94 148.35%
7450 0.94 158.51%
7953 0.94 169.22%
8482 0.94 180.48%
9037 0.94 192.28%
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,836 2.97%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,804 4.63% 6.76% -1.12%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,834 1.25% -2.38% 1.08%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,926 5.02% -2.91% 3.25%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,080 2.19% 13.02% 5.27%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,296 1.61% 3.02% 7.01%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,575 0.91% 11.18% 8.43%
2016 8 3,914 9.51%
2017 9 4,316 10.27%
2018 10 4,780 10.75%
2019 11 5,306 11.00%
2020 12 5,894 11.08%
2021 13 6,543 11.02%
2022 14 7,255 10.88%
2023 15 8,028 10.66%
2024 16 8,864 10.41%
2025 17 9,761 10.12%
2026 18 10,721 9.83%
2027 19 11,742 9.53%
2028 20 12,825 9.23%
2029 21 13,970 8.93%
2030 22 15,178 8.64%
2031 23 16,447 8.36%
2032 24 17,778 8.09%
2033 25 19,171 7.84%
2034 26 20,625 7.59%
2035 27 22,142 7.35%
2036 28 23,721 7.13%
2037 29 25,362 6.92%
2038 30 27,064 6.71%
2039 31 28,829 6.52%
2040 32 30,656 6.34%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2
kW
2009 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 2,940.00
2011 3 9 2,870.00
2012 4 16 2,786.46
2013 5 25 3,149.32
2014 6 36 3,244.40
2015 7 49 3,607.26
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.949995
R Square 0.90249
Adjusted R 0.853734
Standard E 116.8268
Observatio 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 505285.19011 252642.59506 18.51064 0.009508
Residual 4 54594.033992 13648.508498
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2929.18 182.06146704 16.088961222 8.728E-05 2423.696 3434.664 2423.696
X Variable -124.6033 104.33748296 -1.194232907 0.298363 -414.2905 165.084 -414.2905
X Variable 30.97041 12.746852318 2.4296519221 0.072008 -4.420521 66.36135 -4.420521
 Value
MAPE 2.65%
R2 90.25%
Adj R2
85.37%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 3.99%
1st 5yrs 10.52%
Next 20 years 8.60%

Coefficients
A 2929.18
B -124.6033
C 30.97041
 Upper 95.0%
3434.6635523048
165.08403830971
66.361349961003
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,742 0.44%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,808 4.49% 6.76% 2.41%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,896 0.90% -2.38% 3.14%
2012 4 2,786.46 3,006 7.88% -2.91% 3.80%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,138 0.36% 13.02% 4.39%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,292 1.46% 3.02% 4.91%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,468 3.87% 11.18% 5.34%
2040 32 15,000.00
2016 8 . 3,666 5.71%
2017 9 3,885 6.00%
2018 10 4,127 6.22%
2019 11 4,391 6.39%
2020 12 4,677 6.51%
2021 13 4,984 6.58%
2022 14 5,314 6.61%
2023 15 5,666 6.62%
2024 16 6,039 6.59%
2025 17 6,435 6.55%
2026 18 6,852 6.49%
2027 19 7,291 6.41%
2028 20 7,753 6.33%
2029 21 8,236 6.23%
2030 22 8,741 6.14%
2031 23 9,269 6.03%
2032 24 9,818 5.93%
2033 25 10,389 5.82%
2034 26 10,982 5.71%
2035 27 11,597 5.60%
2036 28 12,234 5.49%
2037 29 12,893 5.39%
2038 30 13,574 5.28%
2039 31 14,277 5.18%
2040 32 15,002 5.08%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2
kW
2009 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 2,940.00
2011 3 9 2,870.00
2012 4 16 2,786.46
2013 5 25 3,149.32
 2014 6 36 3,244.40
2015 7 49 3,607.26
2040 32 1024 15,000.00

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999648
R Square 0.999296
Adjusted R Square 0.999015
Standard Error 132.8896
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 125420105.75 62710052.873 3551.035 1.313E-08
Residual 5 88298.266869 17659.653374
Total 7 125508404.01

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 2697.594 121.60059047 22.184052841 3.457E-06 2385.01 3010.1782
X Variable 1 33.17045 32.295393266 1.0270952666 0.351474 -49.84751 116.1884
X Variable 2 10.97959 0.9178898618 11.961777624 7.2E-05 8.620083 13.339105
 Value
MAPE 2.77%
R2 99.93%
Adj R 2
99.90%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.00%

1st 5yrs 6.16%

Next 20 years 6.00%

Coefficients t Stat P-value

Intercept a 2697.59392439 22.18405 3.456929E-06
X Variable 1 b 33.1704455556 1.027095 0.3514736782
X Variable 2 c 10.9795944095 11.96178 7.200169E-05
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Upper 95.0%
2385.0097 3010.17819344507 3010.1781934451
-49.847506 116.18839686056 116.18839686056
8.6200834 13.3391054152815 13.339105415282
 Forecasted Power Percent
Year
Demand Factor Loading
2015 3607 0.94 76.75%
2016 3666 0.94 77.99%
2017 3885 0.94 82.67%
2018 4127 0.94 87.81%
2019 4391 0.94 93.43%
2020 4677 0.94 99.50%
2021 4984 0.94 106.05%
2022 5314 0.94 113.06%
2023 5666 0.94 120.54%
2024 6039 0.94 128.49%
2025 6435 0.94 136.91%
2026 6852 0.94 145.79%
2027 7291 0.94 155.14%
2028 7753 0.94 164.95%
2029 8236 0.94 175.24%
2030 8741 0.94 185.99%
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,796 1.52%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,812 4.37% 6.76% 0.57%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,855 0.51% -2.38% 1.55%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,940 5.51% -2.91% 2.97%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,080 2.20% 13.02% 4.76%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,289 1.37% 3.02% 6.78%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,580 0.76% 11.18% 8.86%
2016 8 3,968 10.83%
2017 9 4,465 12.54%
2018 10 5,087 13.92%
2019 11 5,846 14.92%
2020 12 6,757 15.58%
2021 13 7,832 15.92%
2022 14 9,087 16.02%
2023 15 10,534 15.93%
2024 16 12,188 15.70%
2025 17 14,062 15.37%
2026 18 16,169 14.99%
2027 19 18,525 14.57%
2028 20 21,142 14.13%
2029 21 24,034 13.68%
2030 22 27,215 13.24%
2031 23 30,699 12.80%
2032 24 34,500 12.38%
2033 25 38,630 11.97%
2034 26 43,105 11.58%
2035 27 47,937 11.21%
2036 28 53,142 10.86%
2037 29 58,731 10.52%
2038 30 64,719 10.20%
2039 31 71,121 9.89%
2040 32 77,949 9.60%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2 t^3
kW
2009 1 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 8 2,940.00
2011 3 9 27 2,870.00
2012 4 16 64 2,786.46
2013 5 25 125 3,149.32
2014 6 36 216 3,244.40
2015 7 49 343 3,607.26
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95472
R Square 0.911491
Adjusted R 0.893789
Standard E 99.55328
Observatio 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 510324.94953 510324.949527 51.491516512 0.000818
Residual 5 49554.274577 9910.8549154
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2793.296 51.935975489 53.7834528947 4.2019724E-08 2659.79 2926.802 2659.79
X Variable 2.293563 0.3196265376 7.17575895026 0.0008176968 1.471937 3.115189 1.471937
 Value
MAPE 2.32%
R2 91.15%
Adj R2
89.38%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.25%
1st 5yrs 13.56%
Next 20 years 13.03%

Coefficients
A 2793.296
B 2.293563
C 0
D 0
 Upper 95.0%
2926.8017664556
3.1151891594644
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,827 2.67%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,826 3.87% 6.76% -0.04%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,850 0.71% -2.38% 0.83%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,918 4.73% -2.91% 2.41%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,053 3.06% 13.02% 4.62%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,274 0.92% 3.02% 7.25%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,603 0.12% 11.18% 10.04%
2016 8 4,060 12.68%
2017 9 4,666 14.92%
2018 10 5,441 16.62%
2019 11 6,407 17.75%
2020 12 7,584 18.37%
2021 13 8,992 18.57%
2022 14 10,653 18.47%
2023 15 12,587 18.16%
2024 16 14,816 17.70%
2025 17 17,358 17.16%
2026 18 20,236 16.58%
2027 19 23,470 15.98%
2028 20 27,081 15.38%
2029 21 31,090 14.80%
2030 22 35,516 14.24%
2031 23 40,382 13.70%
2032 24 45,707 13.19%
2033 25 51,512 12.70%
2034 26 57,819 12.24%
2035 27 64,647 11.81%
2036 28 72,018 11.40%
2037 29 79,953 11.02%
2038 30 88,471 10.65%
2039 31 97,594 10.31%
2040 32 107,342 9.99%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2 t^3
kW
2009 1 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 8 2,940.00
2011 3 9 27 2,870.00
2012 4 16 64 2,786.46
2013 5 25 125 3,149.32
2014 6 36 216 3,244.40
2015 7 49 343 3,607.26
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95771
R Square 0.917208
Adjusted R 0.875812
Standard E 107.6492
Observatio 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 513525.8576 256762.9288 22.157003743 0.006854
Residual 4 46353.366506 11588.341627
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2832.23 92.961494507 30.466703214 6.9141155E-06 2574.128 3090.333 2574.128
X Variable -8.440331 16.059555707 -0.525564419 0.6269781914 -53.02881 36.14814 -53.02881
X Variable 3.453138 2.2332493394 1.5462395381 0.1969465383 -2.747356 9.653633 -2.747356
 Value
MAPE 2.30%
R2 91.72%
Adj R 2
87.58%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.18%
1st 5yrs 16.07%
Next 20 years 14.20%

Coefficients
A 2832.23
B -8.440331
C 3.453138
D 0
 Upper 95.0%
3090.3327498608
36.148143765191
9.6536326238136
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,791 1.34%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,849 3.10% 6.76% 2.09%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,879 0.32% -2.38% 1.06%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,926 5.02% -2.91% 1.64%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,035 3.62% 13.02% 3.73%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,252 0.22% 3.02% 7.12%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,619 0.34% 11.18% 11.32%
2016 8 4,184 15.60%
2017 9 4,991 19.28%
2018 10 6,084 21.91%
2019 11 7,509 23.42%
2020 12 9,310 23.99%
2021 13 11,534 23.88%
2022 14 14,223 23.32%
2023 15 17,425 22.51%
2024 16 21,182 21.57%
2025 17 25,541 20.58%
2026 18 30,547 19.60%
2027 19 36,244 18.65%
2028 20 42,677 17.75%
2029 21 49,891 16.90%
2030 22 57,932 16.12%
2031 23 66,844 15.38%
2032 24 76,672 14.70%
2033 25 87,461 14.07%
2034 26 99,256 13.49%
2035 27 112,102 12.94%
2036 28 126,044 12.44%
2037 29 141,127 11.97%
2038 30 157,396 11.53%
2039 31 174,896 11.12%
2040 32 193,671 10.74%

Peak Demand
Year t t^2 t^3
kW
2006 1 1 1 2,753.80
2007 2 4 8 2,940.00
2008 3 9 27 2,870.00
2009 4 16 64 2,786.46
2010 5 25 125 3,149.32
2011 6 36 216 3,244.40
2012 7 49 343 3,607.26
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.961327
R Square 0.92415
Adjusted R 0.848299
Standard E 118.9777
Observatio 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 517412.17841 172470.726137 12.183851501 0.034646
Residual 3 42467.045692 14155.6818972
Total 6 559879.2241

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2659.436 345.41594635 7.69922673854 0.0045536934 1560.168 3758.703 1560.168
X Variable 182.6054 348.50555974 0.52396698968 0.6365475921 -926.4948 1291.706 -926.4948
X Variable -58.94432 98.008373557 -0.6014212328 0.5899687581 -370.8507 252.9621 -370.8507
X Variable 7.492894 8.0954039021 0.9255738624 0.4229357748 -18.27029 33.25608 -18.27029
 Value
MAPE 1.99%
R2 92.41%
Adj R 2
84.83%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 4.49%
1st 5yrs 20.84%
Next 20 years 16.46%

Coefficients
A 2659.436
B 182.6054
C -58.94432
D 7.492894
 Upper 95.0%
3758.7033922669
1291.7056399741
252.96206946108
33.25608249555
 Peak Demand Actual Historical
Year t Predicted APE
kW Growth Growth
2009 1 2,753.80 2,836 2.97%
2010 2 2,940.00 2,800 4.75% 6.76% -1.24%
2011 3 2,870.00 2,833 1.30% -2.38% 1.16%
2012 4 2,786.46 2,929 5.13% -2.91% 3.41%
2013 5 3,149.32 3,086 2.00% 13.02% 5.36%
2014 6 3,244.40 3,300 1.71% 3.02% 6.93%
2015 7 3,607.26 3,567 1.12% 11.18% 8.09%
2040 32 17,000.00 17,000
2016 8 3,884 8.88%
2017 9 4,246 9.34%
2018 10 4,651 9.54%
2019 11 5,095 9.54%
2020 12 5,574 9.40%
2021 13 6,085 9.16%
2022 14 6,624 8.85%
2023 15 7,187 8.50%
2024 16 7,771 8.12%
2025 17 8,372 7.74%
2026 18 8,987 7.34%
2027 19 9,611 6.95%
2028 20 10,242 6.57%
2029 21 10,876 6.19%
2030 22 11,509 5.82%
2031 23 12,138 5.46%
2032 24 12,758 5.11%
2033 25 13,367 4.77%
2034 26 13,961 4.44%
2035 27 14,535 4.12%
2036 28 15,088 3.80%
2037 29 15,614 3.49%
2038 30 16,110 3.18%
2039 31 16,574 2.88%
2040 32 17,000 2.57%

Where t is equal to ln(t)

Peak Demand
Year t t^2 t^3
kW
2009 1 1 1 2,753.80
2010 2 4 8 2,940.00
2011 3 9 27 2,870.00
2012 4 16 64 2,786.46
2013 5 25 125 3,149.32
2014 6 36 216 3,244.40
 2015 7 49 343 3,607.26
2040 32 1024 32768 17,000.00

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999834
R Square 0.999668
Adjusted R 0.99942
Standard E 119.0207
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 170776127.26 56925375.7536 4018.4692521 2.063E-07
Residual 4 56663.741522 14165.9353805
Total 7 170832791

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

Intercept 2942.165 199.08780649 14.7782278444 0.0001220449 2389.409 3494.921 2389.40859954914
X Variable -143.3475 124.6155002 -1.1503181769 0.3141049168 -489.3356 202.6406 -489.335570553694
X Variable 37.43397 18.545934969 2.01844593194 0.1136988944 -14.0578 88.92574 -14.0578033738232
X Variable -0.60081 0.4657480983 -1.2899895263 0.266580327 -1.893934 0.692314 -1.8939341965838
 Value
MAPE 2.71%
R2 99.97%
Adj R 2
99.94%
Growth
Actual 4.78%
Predicted 3.95%

1st 5yrs 9.34%

Next 20 years 5.75%

Coefficients
A 2942.165
B -143.3475
C 37.43397
D -0.60081
 Upper 95.0%
3494.921331233
202.6406205606
88.925737358216
0.6923138591314