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(NYSE: SEE)
Recommendation - Buy
Target Price: $69.09
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
2
Company Overview
General Overview
Business Description Management Team
▪ Sealed Air Corporation is a global leader in plastic packaging solutions based in
Charlotte, North Carolina and was founded in 1960
$0.0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E
Food Care Revenue Product Revenue Americas EMEA APAC Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
6
Industry Overview
Plastic Film Packaging
Industry Scope Plastic Film Packaging Industry Revenue Growth ($B)
▪ The global plastic film packaging industry designs packaging solutions that help
protect and preserve products to ensure their quality and extend their shelf life $166.4
while also preparing delivered goods that may need to be packaged specifically $150.2 $158.1
$135.6 $142.7
$123.8 $128.8
▪ Industry growth is driven by rising demand for essential products, shift in consumer
behavior towards e-commerce, and a focus on eco-friendly packaging
▪ Plastic film packaging is only a part of the overall packaging solutions market, but
plastic is far more resilient and less likely to be replaced than other bio sourced
materials due to its lightweight and lower cost
2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Major Players by Revenue ($B) Competitive Landscape
Large Conglomerates Pureplay Competitors
Reynolds $3.6 Sealed Air is the largest
pure-play plastic packaging
ALPLA $4.5 player
Mondi $8.7
Larger packaging conglomerates have Pure-play plastic packaging firms lack
Berry Global $13.9 extensive capital and resources that the scale Sealed Air has and cannot
consists of many smaller granular pose a threat in terms of market share,
Amcor $14.5 businesses, but lack concentration and so they have to offer discounted prices
competitive advantages in order to compete with SEE
8 Source(s): Bloomberg, IBIS World, Mckinsey, S.E.C. Filing, SEE Company Website, Statista
Note: Market data as of 27-Jan-23
Agenda
Investment Theses
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
9
Investment Thesis I
Uniquely Positioned to Capitalize on Growth of E-Commerce
Defensible Economic Moats Provides Competitive Edge E-Commerce Food & Beverage Market Share
▪ COVID-19 fast-tracked the arrival of grocery delivery services and packaging is 8.0% Total addressable market for e-commerce
essential to this new grocery distribution center market space packaging will grow due to demand for
6.0% digitized packaging solutions
▪ Sealed Air’s partnership with UPS optimizes freight costs and allows Sealed Air a
platform to connect with small to medium sized businesses that have capacity for 4.0%
additional e-commerce growth
2.0%
▪ Sealed Air’s large distribution network and manufacturing supply chains also
will turn away new entrants trying to capitalize on this e-commerce tailwind because 0.0%
the research & development barrier to entry is far too high and Sealed Air 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
possesses economic moats to defend its e-commerce packaging market share Europe North America
Patented PrismIQ Digital Packaging Market Misjudgment of E-Commerce Impact on SEE
▪ Creates a unique QR code for each packaged product and allows its Market’s View My View
information to be easily accessed in Sealed Air’s product cloud
1. Packaging companies will benefit 1. Revenue for packaging companies
from e-commerce, but margins will be may be high but Sealed Air will
▪ Each QR code scan from the customer will generate personalized data
reduced due to competition dominate with superior margins
from that scan and be collected by Sealed Airs cloud-based system
Recycled plastics are Renewable energy Packaging is curbside ▪ Sealed Air has positioned itself as a leader in
reused for new facilities reduces recyclable once sustainability within the industry and are on course
solutions greenhouse emissions consumed to reach its zero net carbon emissions goal by 2040
Global Recyclable Packaging Market Size ($B) First Mover Advantage in Sustainability Packaging Market
Huge total addressable market for Sealed Air to acquire market share first ▪ As more food suppliers and e-commerce delivery services make the transition
towards being ESG friendly, there will be an increase in demand for eco-friendly
$41.8 specialized packaging for those firms with ESG priorities
$38.1 $39.9
$34.7 $36.3
$31.5 $33.1
$28.7 $30.1 ▪ Customers are more likely to switch from their original packaging suppliers
moving forward to sign contracts with more eco-friendly ones to meet
regulations, posing an opportunity for Sealed Air to capture more market share
▪ The trend of adapting to sustainable plastic packaging not only enlarges the total
addressable market for Sealed Air’s products but also provides SEE a chance to
consolidate its current market share in plastic packaging
2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Product Segment Revenue Performance ($B) Automation Secures Sticky Customers & Market Share
$3.0 30%
▪ Most of Sealed Air’s customers are food and beverage manufacturers or
retailers, and these companies have a set of required secondary
packaging supply chain standards that they must meet
$2.0 20%
▪ Since automation packaging possess an advantage in cost reduction,
retailers are more likely to choose larger and reliable firms such as
$1.0 10% Sealed Air even if these firms possess a certain level of pricing power
over them
▪ Sealed Air’s reputation for its automation packaging segment’s quality and scale can
$0.0 0% create customer stickiness that prevents other packaging firms from acquiring
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 market share in this niche space and provide pricing power over its customers who
won’t switch suppliers even if SEE places small pricing adjustments
Product Segment Revenue ROIC
▪ Large number of distribution channels worldwide and partnership with UPS ▪ Sealed Air will outperform others in its automation segment because of its
creates economies of scale that other firms cannot acquire or replicate. This longstanding proprietary technologies which it continues to develop. Despite the
economic moat will only become more prominent as the overall automated market and investors seeing competition as a determinant for mediocre
packaging market grows as a result of e-commerce growth performance, SEE will continue to innovate and perform as the market leader
Digital Printing ▪ Sealed Air can deploy cash flow from its core business into developing more
manufacturing facilities focused on Liquibox operations, creating a formidable
$2B+ TAM | 12% CAGR
compounding power
Design Services ▪ Due to concentrated nature of the packaging industry’s customer base, it is harder
$1B+ TAM | 7% CAGR to capture market share directly from competitors, but this acquisition allows SEE to
cross sell additional products to Liquibox customers in a more fragmented space
Patent Development Differentiates Sealed Air Market Misjudgment of Fluids & Liquids Market Potential
Industry leader in developing proprietary technologies ▪ Expanding market share in plastic packaging is difficult but it is
which drives organic growth to capture new industry white easier to capture the fragmented market in fluids & liquids
space in digitization aspects involved with customer services packaging and Sealed Air can become the dominant incumbent
327
through its economies of scale
161 75
53
381 302 370 ▪ This acquisition has not been fully priced in by the market
222 44
118 because the synergies generated presents significant revenue
Sealed Air Sonoco Products Amcor plc Berry Global Ball Corporation potential for Sealed Air while there is still a price-value
dislocation for SEE’s share price after this acquisition
Active Pending Group
▪ Sealed Air’s organic growth strategy is able to create entry opportunities into ▪ Sealed Air’s inorganic growth strategy creates cross-selling opportunities while
new markets because of its consistent investments towards R&D positioning itself to capture white space created by new packaging markets
14 Source(s): Capstone Partners, Mckinsey, S.E.C. Filing, SEE Company Website, Tegus
Note: Market data as of 27-Jan-23
Agenda
Risks & Catalysts
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
15
Risks & Catalysts
Risks & Catalysts
Short-Term Catalysts Risks & Mitigations
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
17
Valuation
Comparable Companies Analysis
($ USD MM) Market Data Trading Multiples
Price Equity Value EV P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
Ticker Company
$ / Share $M $M 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E
BERY Berry Global Group Inc $59.87 7,236 15,738 10.3x 7.9x 7.5x 7.5x 12.2x 11.8x
SON Sonoco Products Co $59.84 5,779 9,046 9.3x 10.2x 7.8x 8.0x 9.9x 10.5x
BALL Ball Corporation $59.02 18,280 27,160 19.6x 17.8x 13.5x 12.5x 18.5x 16.7x
MATV Mativ Holdings, Inc $26.08 1,398 3,144 9.2x 9.1x 10.6x 8.1x 14.8x 11.2x
AVY Avery Dennison Corporation $191.90 15,424 18,399 19.7x 18.7x 12.9x 12.4x 16.2x 15.5x
AMCR Amcor plc $12.00 17,344 24,367 21.5x 15.1x 11.0x 11.4x 16.1x 14.2x
Mean 14.9x 13.1x 10.6x 10.0x 14.6x 13.3x
Median 15.0x 12.7x 10.8x 9.8x 15.5x 13.0x
SEE Sealed Air $53.87 7,840 11,313 13.2x 13.1x 9.2x 8.9x 11.5x 11.1x
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Theses
Valuation
Recommendation
20
Recommendation
Buy With a Price Target of ~$69.09 (+29.0%)
Valuation Range Price Target
Price Target: ~$69.09
Valuation Summary
Gordon Analysis Price Weight
Growth
Comparable Analysis $61.73 20%
Method
Gordon Growth Method $69.50 35%
Exit Exit Multiple Method $75.26 35%
Multiple Street Consensus $60.75 10%
Method Weighted Average $69.09 100%
$69.09
$65.00 $61.00
Street $59.00 $58.00
Consensus
52-Week
Range
Sam Gao
Price Morgan Mizuho Truist RBC Capital
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 Stanley Securities
Target
22
Appendix I
Revenue Model & Commentary
Revenue Model
Forecast
(USD $MM)
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Food Care Revenue 2880.5 2825.5 3112.8 3206.2 3286.3 3358.6 3435.9 3518.3 3588.7 3653.3 3715.4 3778.6 3835.3
% of Total Revenue 60.1% 57.6% 56.3% 55.1% 53.9% 52.6% 51.6% 50.9% 50.3% 50.0% 49.7% 49.6% 49.3%
Product Revenue 1910.6 2077.7 2421.0 2614.7 2816.0 3021.6 3221.0 3398.2 3540.9 3654.2 3752.9 3846.7 3942.8
% of Total Revenue 39.9% 42.4% 43.7% 44.9% 46.1% 47.4% 48.4% 49.1% 49.7% 50.0% 50.3% 50.4% 50.7%
Total Revenue 4791.1 4903.2 5533.8 5820.9 6102.3 6380.2 6656.9 6916.5 7129.6 7307.5 7468.3 7625.3 7778.1
Assumptions
Food Care Segment Revenue Growth (0.9%) (1.9%) 10.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5%
Product Segment Revenue Growth 4.7% 8.7% 16.5% 8.0% 7.7% 7.3% 6.6% 5.5% 4.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%
Total Revenue Growth 2.3% 12.9% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%
Food Care Segment Revenue Growth 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Upside 3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%
Base 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5%
Downside 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2%
Product Segment Revenue Growth 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Upside 9.6% 9.2% 8.8% 7.9% 6.6% 5.0% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%
Base 8.0% 7.7% 7.3% 6.6% 5.5% 4.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%
Downside 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%
▪ Organic revenue growth from Sealed Air’s product segment is forecasted to grow consistently in the high single digits from rapid growth of its automation segment and
ability to defend and capture further market share due to the economic moats Sealed Air possesses over its competitors in this segment
▪ Sealed Air’s food care segment will remain growing steadily due to the constant demand in food and increased e-commerce activity related to grocery deliveries
▪ Within the next 5-10 years Sealed Air’s product segment is forecasted to outgrow the food care segment mainly because of the expansion of SEE’s automation segment
Cost of Debt
Exit Multiple Method Exit Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.0%
Cost of Debt 4.5% Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
Tax Rate 27.9% 9.6x 10.1x 10.6x 11.1x 11.6x 9.6x 10.1x 10.6x 11.1x 11.6x
After-Tax Cost of Debt 3.3% 7.2% $74.89 $77.97 $81.05 $84.14 $87.22 7.2% 40% 46% 51% 57% 63%
7.7% $72.19 $75.14 $78.08 $81.03 $83.97 7.7% 35% 40% 46% 51% 57%
WACC 8.2%
WACC 8.2% $69.63 $72.45 $75.26 $78.07 $80.88 WACC 8.2% 30% 35% 41% 46% 51%
8.7% $67.20 $69.89 $72.57 $75.26 $77.94 8.7% 25% 30% 35% 41% 46%
9.2% $64.89 $67.45 $70.02 $72.58 $75.15 9.2% 21% 26% 31% 36% 40%
Insiders
6% 14% The Vanguard Group, Inc
Edward Doheny (CEO) 0.5 0.35%
Emilie Chammas (COO) 0.2 0.14% T. Rowe Price Group, Inc
Sergio Pupkin (Chief Growth & Strategy Officer) 0.1 0.07% Shares 11%
Total Insiders 1.1 0.76% Outstanding: Janus Henderson Group
144.7MM plc
Institutions 50% 9%
State Street Global
Blackrock, Inc 20.2 13.96% Advisors, Inc
The Vanguard Group, Inc 16.6 11.47%
5%
5% Other Institutions
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc 13.2 9.12%
Janus Henderson Group plc 6.8 4.70%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc 6.5 4.49% Public Float
Geode Capital Management, LLC 2.9 2.00% Commentary
Kensico Capital Management Corp 2.7 1.87%
Other 65.4 45.20% ▪ Significant ownership from well-known institutions such as Blackrock and Vanguard
Total Institutions 134.3 92.81% demonstrates their faith in the quality of the business
Public & Other 9.3 6.43% ▪ Insignificant insider ownership means little to no risk of poor performance due to
Total Basic Shares Outstanding 144.7 100.00% market speculation of insider selling of shares
25 Source(s): Capital IQ
Note: Market data as of 27-Jan-23
Appendix IV
Sealed Air’s Diverse Product Portfolio
High-Speed Bag and Pouch System Cryovac Automated Vacuum Packaging System
PrismIQ Digital Packaging Increases Brand Engagement BubbleWrap Packaging Using Recycled Materials