SECTION3

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS

OF TRAFFIC STUDIES

8
Statistical Methods for Traffic
Engineering
8-1. Need
and
In ordinary sense, Statistics deals with the collection
this
compilation of data. The subject of Statistics has outgrown
simpledefinition and is now more and more concerned about drawing
conclusions, and inferences from the observed data. Statistical meth-
ods find important applications in many fields of science and engi-
with
neering. Traffic engineering is a subject which deals extensively
quantitative data in the planning, design and operation of transpor
tation facilities. Statistical methods are a powerful tool to analyse
and interpret these data, In this Chapter, the elementary principles
of Statistics are outlined, with particular reference to their applica-
tion to traffic engineering studies.
8-2. Elementary Concepts of Probability
8-2-1. Definition of probability
In statistical methods,probabilitytheories are useful in under
standing and estimatingthe properties ofa population and in testing
some hypothesis about the population. Many statistical problems are
couched in the language of probability and an élementary knowledge
of the same and some fundamental concepts of probability will be
essential.
When an experimentis repeated a large number of timesunder
identical conditions and each time an event A does or does not occur,
thenthe probability of occurrence ofA is the proportion of times in
which Aoccurs. Thus:
Probability of cccurrence of A
Number of experiments in whichA occurs (8-1)
Total number of experiments
The probability is usually expressed as a fraction and can
a8sume values from 0 to 1. It is expressed symbolically as:
88 TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT PLANNM
NNING
PA) = Probability of occurrence of event A.
For example, consider the situation where approximately hale
the population of India are males. f the experiment consists
chosing a person living in India and the eventA 18 thattha person
'Son
so chosen is a male, then the probability of occurrence of event A,

PA)= 0-5.
8:2-2. Some simple laws of probability
(a) The probability of an event has a minimum possible value
of 0 and a maximum possible value of 1.
Thus 0 <«P (A) <« 1
(6) IfP(A) is the probability of occurrence of an eventA, then the
probability of non-occurrence of the event, symbolically expressed as
PM-A), is 1-PA).
Thus PM- A) = 1-PA) 8-2)
As an example, if the probability of the arrival of a vehicle in a
particular time interval is 0-6, the probability that no vehicle arrives
in that time interval is 1-0-6 = 0-4.
c) If an event A is a composite event, which is a collection of
simple events e, ez, e3, .. n, then the probability that the composite
event A will occur is. the sum of the probabilities of the simple events
of which it is composed.
Thus PA)=Ple)+ Plez) + Peg) +.. +Pe,) ..(8-3)
As an illustration, consider a simple count ofvehicle arrivals at
a point in fixed
time intervals of 10 seconds. Let the probabilities o
0,1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7 and more vehicles arriving in 10 seconds interval
be as follows:
P(0) =0-13.
P(1) = 0-27
P2) = 0-27
P(3) = 0.18
P(4) = 0-09
P(5) = 0-03
P6) = 0-01
P(7) =0-02
1-00 (Total)
Then the probability of 3 and more vehicles arriving in the
interval is,
Pr> 3)= P(3) P(4) +P(5) + P(6) + P(7)
+
= 0-18 +0-09+ 0-03 + 0-01 +0-02
= 0-33
(d) Total probability of 2 mutually exclusive events.
If two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive
(i.e. ifA occurs,
 89
METHODS POR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING
STATI
B cur and vice versa), the total
cannotoccu probability that one of these
Reannot
eventsoccursis
PMA or B)= PMA) + P(B) ..(8.4)

In the above example, the probability that one or two vehicles

time interval of 10 sec is
rrive during a
P(1 or 2)- P(1)+ P(2)
= 0.27+0.27
- 0-54
The above rule can be extended to more than two mutually
exclusive events by applying the formula as many times as required.
Forexample, if the probability of one, two or three vehicles arriving
10 seconds time interval is needed from the data above,
in a
P(1 or 2 or 3) = P(1) + (2) + P(3)
= 0-27 +0:27 +0.18

0.72
(e)Joint probability.Iftwo events A and B, are independent
(ie. the occurrence of Ahas no influence on the occurrence of B and
vice versa), the probability that both will occur together is:
PA and B) = PLAB) = P(A) x P(B) ..(8-5)
As an illustration, consider the simple problem of picking two
balls from a box of 10, half of which are white and halfblack. After the
irst ball is picked it is returned to the box before the next ball is
picked.
The probability of picking a white ball at the first attempt is
5/10.
The probability of picking a white ball at the second attempt is
also 5/10.
The probability of picking 2 white balls consecutively is then
given by
Pr (2 white balls picked)
= Pr (first ball picked is white)
xPr(second ball picked is white)

f, in the above problem, the first ball is nót returned to the box,
and ifit happens to be white, then there are only 9 balls now left out
0T which 4 are white. The probability of picking a white ball at the

second attemptis then.In this case, the probability of picking 2

white balls consecutively is given by
 90 TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT PLANNn

Pr (2 balls picked are white)

ANNING
= Pr (first ball picked is white)
xPr (second ball picked is white, subject
the assumption that the first ball to
also white) pickedi
5
10 9
The slight variation in the problem above
introduces what io
known as conditional probability. It is symbolically written as
PB
A) and is read as probability that B occurs when it is known thatA has
occurred. Thejoint probability rule can be written down as follows for
conditional probability
PA and B) =PA) . P(B/A)
8-6)
8-2-3. Probability distribution
Consider the example in the previous section. The probability
of arrival of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 and more vehicles in a given time
interval are plotted, as shown in Fig. 8.1, with the x-axis
indicating
the number of arrivals, k, and the y-axis indicating the probability of
occurrence of the event, P(k). The ordinate at each point gives the
probability that the vehicle arrivals are as indicated by the point on
thex-axis.

0.4F
9 0.3

02
0.1
0
more
k Arrivals per 10 sec. interval
Fig. 8-1. Probability of vehicle arrivals per unit time.
(Probability mass function).
f
a
In the other words, the above figure gives the possiblevalueso
random variable (number of arrivals in this case) with the assoc1-
ated probabilities. These random variables can be continuous (heigght
of persons, headway in seconds between vehicles etc.) or can
discrete (number of arrivals of vehicles in a stated time intes
numberof vacant parking spaces at any instant, number ofacciden
STATISTIOCAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING 91

ect.). If the random variable is continuous, the points giving the

values of random variable and their associated probabilities can be
joined by a curve. Ifthevariable is discrete, the graph is represented
by vertical lines as in the above figure.
The above representation is termed as probability massfunc
tion for the variable and is denoted as fl),ftk), Plx) or Plk). The letter
i s used for continuous variables and the letter k for discrete
variables.

The above data can be represented in a slightly different form.

Suppose instead of the individual probability of occurrence of as
event,if we plot the cumulative probability upto a particular value of
the random variable, we get the cumulative probabilities for each
value of the variable. Fig. 8-2 has been constructed such that the
ordinate at each point represents the probability that there will be
less than the stated number of arrivals.
1.05
0-8

06
3
80.4
a02

01 2 34 5 6 7and
more
k=Arivals per 10 sec.
in terva
8-2. Cumulative distribution function.
Fig.
The above representation is called the cumulative distribution
Tunction or simply distribution function for the variate. It is denoted
as P) for continuous variables and P{k) for discrete variables.
For continuous variables, Fx) = Plx or less).
For discrete variables, k can assumevalues such as 1,2,3,4,..
etc. upto the admissible maximum and
Fk) = Plk or less).
The values of Fk), the cumulative distribution function, will be
nnimum of zero and a maximum of unity, and the sum of all values
0r the probability maas function will be unity. Thus

EPC&) = 10
 ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT
92
TRAFFIC

problem below.
ANNING
demonstrated in the
This is
that a particular houeai
Problem 8-1. The probability old of 4
members has 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 employed
ats is
residents given boof4
is given belo
P(0)=0-316
P(1) = 0422
P(2) = 0:211
P(3) = 0-047
P4) = 0-004
Plot the probability mass function and the cumulative distrik..
tion function.
ibu
Solution. The household has 4 members and this gives all 1
possible values of K as 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4. The sum of all the values
of
Pk) =0.316 +0.422 +0-211+0-047 +0-004
= 1-000
The values of the cumulative distribution function F(k) ara
e
tabulatedbelow:
Values of K Values of Cumulative
Distribution Function
Fk)
0 0-316
1 0-738
0-949
3 0-976
1-000

0.5

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
k=Employed Residents
Fig.8-3. Probability mass function.
It may be noted that the
8-4, is a stepped function for probability distribution function P18
discrete variables. Fig. 8.3 gives
ability mass function. pro
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING 93

1-0
0.9
0.8
0-7
0.6
0.5
0.4
03
0-2
0.1

2 3
k=tmployed Residents
Fig. 8.4. Probability distribution function.

Area =Plx¢X<X)

Probability Density Function

- X +0

1-01

Probability Dis tribution

Function
Flx

Fix

Fig. 8-5. Probability density and distribution functions

for a continuous variable.

For continuous variables, the cumulative distribution function

Fla) = Plx or less)
 AND TRANSPORT Pr.
94
TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING
PLANNING
Fla)dr,
probability density function and is de
where fr) is called the defined
by:
la)-dFlr)

dx
The probability distribution and probability density funeti
for a cuntinuous variable aregiven in Fig. 8-5. It may be notedthatsthe
area under the probability density function is unity. Also, the area
under the probability density function between two points x, and.
and z2
gives the probability of the variable laying between xj and zo. Thina

Pl <z) =
|x)dx (8-7)
It is also equal to the difference in FX) values at these two
points on the cumulative distribution function. Thus
Px1 <x) =Plx) -Fla) ...(8-8)
The value of Fx) approaches unity as x -> + co and approaches
0 as x - 0 .
The above figures represent the condition when z varies
between any two numbers x andz2 and the above relations still hold
good in principle except that the limits forz will X, andX2 insteadof
- 0 and + o.

8-3. Mean, Standard Deviation and Variance

8-3-1. Grouping of data and presentation
When dealing with a large amount of data on variables, one of
the convenient forms of presentation is by means of a frequency table.
The data are first of all grouped into suitable class
intervals and the
number of observations
(frequency) pertaining to each classis re
corded. In selecting the size of the class
interval, most natural or
convenient classes should be selected and the
tion should be as smooth as picture of the popula-
possible. When dealing with a large
number of observations, say more than 200, one should have about
to 20 classes and not more.
A simple formula for
is determining the size of the class interval
i- Range
1 3.222 log10 N
where i class interval

Range =
difference between the largest and
item, smalles
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING 95

N- Number of observations.
be carefully done
The selection of the class boundaries should
in any
sO that
there is no doubt about placing a particular value
from the following
articular class interval. The process will be clear
par

example.
Problem 8-2. Table 8-1 below indicates the values of spot speeds
observed at a certain location. Classify the data into a frequency table.
Table 8-1

Obs. No. Speed Obs. No. Speed

(K.P.H.) (KP.H.)

40-8 25 55-0
52-8 26 56-2
51-6 27 49-9
46-2 28 57-3
55-1 29 35-2
48-8 30 54-5
41-2 31 49-2

8 516 32 56-2
47-8 33 66-6
9
52-6 34 46-2
10
11 32-2 35 54-7
57-5 36 37-8
12
13 43-4 37 51-8
14 58-2 38 58-2
15 47-8 39 48-4
16 53-7 40 50-9
17 42-6 41 74-2
18 581 42 47-5
19 62-2 43 51-7
20 53-2 36-4
21 63-3 45 50-6
22 43-2 46 59-8
23 64-5 47 61-2

24 64-1 48 42-9

As examination of the 48 observations indicates that the least

value is 32.2 KP.H. and the highest values is 74.2 KP.H. A selection
of classes with an interval of 5 K.P.H. appears logical, covering the
speeds from 30 K.P.H. to 75 KP.H
The speeds are recorded correct to one decimal place. In order
o avoid ambiguity of recording a value such as 35-0, the class limits
are made equal to 29.95-34-95, 34-95-39-95 and so on. With this
and
rangement, a reading of 34-9 will fall in the class 29-95-34.95,
the next reading of 35-0 will fall in the next class of 34-95-39-95.
 AND TRANSPORT
96
TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING
LANHI
Table 8-2 illustrates
the frequeney table of data
in
Table g&
To,

the class limit

is entered in column 2. e 2 Col
The luran2
of
The mid-point
ofcounting the observations.
indicatesa convenient way
entered in column 5
is the actual frequency relative
divided!but
frequency Column 6 gives the percentag tre the
total number of observations.
quency and
column
cumulative percentage
7 the frequency.
Table 8-2
Frequency Table
of Data in Table 8-2

Class Limits Mid point Tabu-|Frequency| Relative | Percent- lCu ulative

Lation Frequ- age Fre |
ency
Percentage
queney Frequeney
(1) (2) (3) (4) (6) (6) (7)
29-95-34-95 32-45 1 0-02 2-0 20
34-5-39-95 37-45 3 0-06 6-0 8-0
42-45 6 0-13 13-0 210
39-95-44-95
44-95-49-95 47-45 9 0-19 19-0 40-0
52-45 12 0-25 25-0 65-0
49-95-54-95
57-45 10 0-21 21-0 86-0
54-95-59-95
59-95-64-95 62-45 5 0-10 10-0 96-0
64-95-69-25 67-45 0-02 2-0 98-0
69-95-74-95 7245 1 0-02 2-0 100-0
Total 48 1-00 100-0

The graphical presentation of the above data by a histogram is

possible where the horizontal axis represents the class-limits and the
vertical axis the percentage frequency. The histogram for the data in
Table 8-2 is shown in Fig. 8-6.
The cumulative percentage frequency
diagram or ogive curve
also
shown in Fig. 8-6. The vertical axis ofthis diagram indicates the
percentage frequency of speeds less than a given speed. For this
purpose, the upper-class limits of the class-intervals are considered
when plotting the various points on the curve.
8-3-2. Parameters of distribution
The frequency table, histogram and the cumulative frequene
curve give only rough idea of the distribution and their ent

nne
characteristics. An accurate idea of the distribution can be had from
the parameters of distribution, such as a measure of the tral
tendency and a measure of the re
of the central dispersion. The most commo nose
tendency is the arithmetic
mean, or
there are n observations
of a variable x (i.e. mea these
are denoted by x1, x2, sample
size
hy the
the
X3, ..., Xn), then the mean 7 is gve
formula:
 STATISTICAL METHODS POR TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING 97

His togram
30
20
10

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 0 5
Speed in K.PH
Cumulative Percentage Frequen cy
100 Diagram
90
80

60
50
40
30F

20
10
30 35 40 4560 55 60 65 70 75
V=Speed
Fig. 8-6. Histogram and cumulative frequency diagramn
for the data in Table 8:2.

T1 *2+ 3 .

...(8-9)
=

The above equation applies to individual observations of the

variablesx W'hen the observations aregrouped into diterent classes,
as was done in Table 8-2, the calculation of the mean is done with
 TRAFFIC BNGINEERINa AND TRANSORT PLANNING

the classes and the

respectiun e
of
reference to the mid-points m represent the mid-point
the mid-Doi. quen
ciee of theclasses. Let *1, *g, *3, tho freou of
m representing ios
the m classes, f1. s lowing formula ofof
then given by the followinef
observations. The mean f is

.(8-10)

The computations can be times simplified if a false oripinis

at
be transformed to a variable y; by ue.
used. The variables x; can
below
using
false origin constants as

yi
C
.8-11)

and C
8-12)
where and c are constants.
The class-interval can be conveniently used as the constant c.
The calculation of the arithmetic mean of the data grouped in Table
8-2 can be done as in Table 8-3.

Fif 48
--0146.
Efi
Table 8-3
Class Limits Mid-point yi Frequency ydivfi
(KP.H.) (K.P.H.) xi 52-45 fi

29-95-34-95 32-45 4 16
34-95-39-95 37-45 3 3 -9 27
39-95-44-95 42-45 -2 6 - 12 +24
4495-49-96 47-45
49-95-54-65 62-45 12
54-95-59-95 57-45 10 +10 10
59-95-64-95 62-45 +2 + 10 20
64-95-69-95 67-45 +3 +3 +9
69-95-74-95 72-45 +4 1 +4 16

48 -7181
But
from Eq. (8-12)
TATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING

-0-146- -52.45
5
T - 0-73 52-45
=
51.72, say 51.7 K.P.H.
A simple measure of
dispersion is the range which is the
difference between the largèst and the smallest measurement. A
better measure is the variance, which is defined below.

Variance = s2 = i-l
2-F)
n-1
...(8-13)
The standard deviation, s, is the square root
of the variance and
isgiven by:

Standard deviation =S= .8-14)

-1
n1
The following formula is sometime more convenient;

-nT) ..(8-15)
n-1
Ifa false origin constant k is used to simplify the calculations,
thefollowing formula can be used:

2(*i -k)- n(+ -k)2

..8-16)
n-1

For grouped data consistingofm classes the following formula

canbe used

s= .8-17)
-1
i1

8-18)

-
il
 AND TRANSPORT PLA
TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING
PLANNING
100 origin k,
false
data with
For grouped

i1 ..(8-19)

to transform the variable .

Sometimes it is
necessary
as below :
using two c o n s t a n t s
another variable y; by
.8-20)
C
found from Eg. (8211
Then the standard deviation ofy is first

-1 ..(8-21)
i-1
fi-1
from:
The standard
deviation efris then found 8-22)
the last column in
contained in Tables 8-1 and 8:2
For the data is found from Eq.
The standard deviation of y
Table 8-3 gives y?f.
8-21) thus:
131-48 x )
48-1

=N 131-102 -166
47

2 x c from Eq. (8-22)

= (1-66)2 x 5 x5
8, = 1-66 x 5
8-30 KP.H.
8-4. Poisson and Binomial Distributions
finds extremely
8-4-1. One relationship a trafic engineer
ofthe
in dealing with the random properties of traffic
is the Poissou
useful
distribution,named after Poisson, a French mathematician.
e
The Poisson distribution, is the limiting case of the n
generalised Binomial distribution which describes the probabilnoy
oCcurrence of a particular event in a specified number of trials.
 TISTICAL
STATISTICA
METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING 101
8-4-2. The Binomial distribution is based on the follow
ing assumptions
() Each trial has only two possible outcomes, which are
mutually exclusive. For example, success or failure, defective or non
defective, head or tail, good or bad etc. are mutually exclusive.
() The population from which the samples are drawn or trials
are
made is infinite, such that the withdrawal of a sample or
conducting a trial does not alter the relative proportion of samples
with either of the two characteristics. If the population is finite, yet
the same condition as above may be achieved provided the item
drawn is returned to the population after a single trial, but before the
next item is drawn.
Table 8-4

Binomial Coefficient Cr or n!
r!(n-r)1
6 7 9 10

1 1

3 3
1

5 10 10 5
6 15 20 15
21 35 35 21
8 28 56 70 56 28
1 36 84 126 126 84 36 9
10 1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10
11 1 11 55 165330 462462 330 165 65 11
12 1 12 66 220 495 792 924 792 495| 220
13 1 13 78 286 715 1287| 1716 1716 1287 715 286
14 1 14 91 364 1001 2002| 3003
3432 3003 2002 1001
15 1 15 105 455 1365 3003| 5005 6435 6436 5005 3003
16 1 16 120 560 1820 4368 8008 11440 12870 11440 8008
17| 1 17 136 680| 2380 6188 12376 19448 24310| 24310 19448
18 1 18 153 816| 3060| 8668 18564 31824 43768 48620 43758
19 1 19 171 969 3876 11628 27132 50388 75582 92378 92378
201 20 19o 1140 4875 15504 3876077520|125970 67960 184756
n) The probability of occurrence ofa certain event at each trial
& ntConstant (say, p) so that probability of the non-occurrencee of the
18 also a constant (say q).
 AND TRANSPORT DI

TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING
LANNING
102 then
probability,
of total
By the law
p+9
q = 1-p.
discrete valuee
for only discrete values of
distribution
is valid
number of tri the
(iv) The occur in a given
an event can
n u m b e r of times
gives:
distribution
The Binomial
n q"-
.8-23)
Pr)(n -r) a n event r times.
mes in n
Probability of
occurrence of
Pr) = d i s c r e t e numbers.
where r and n
being
trials, in
of the event a
ingle
p
Probability of occurrence
trial.
non-occurrence of the event in
a Probability of as indicated
which ls 1-p
a single trial
earlier.

also sometimes desig.

TheBinomial Coeficientt(n)*from Table 8.4.
value can be found
nated as C, or (") and its
illustrates the use of the Binomial
The following example
distribution:
the employment
structure of house.
Problem 8-3. In analysing study it
in connection with a trip generation
holds in a n urban areo, members in each.
a r e 2500
households of 4
has been found that there household of thissize has 0, 1,
that a particular
Find the probability
residents.
2, 3 and4 employed
Solution. In this example,p, the r" sbability of
a resident being
employed
2500
10,000 4
unem-
q 1-p= Probability of a resident being
ployed
=

n = the number of residents in a household

= 4
Probability that a particular household has r employea
residents out of 4,
..(8-23)
n!
Pr) r!(n-r)
p'qn-r

P-0147
STATISTICAL METHODS POR TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING 103

Note. 011 (4P -1

=0-316.

Pir-
0-422

Pr-2)-
- 0-211

Pr-3)-4L
0-047

Pr=4) )
= 0-004
Note that total of all the above
probabilities is
0-316 +
= 1-00.
0-422+0-211+0-047+0-004
The above data is plotted
graphically in Fig. 8-7. Note that the
graph is valid only for discrete values of r, the number of employed
residents and the probability distribution is
an ordinate of height P(r) over
represented by erecting
each value of r.

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
=Employed Residents
Fig.87. Probability distributionofemployed residenta.
 ANT RANSPORT DI
104
TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING
ANNING
Problem 8-4. At an uncontrolled T junct. n , past erna.
le

vehicle arriving on the eence

probability ofa the main rod road
indicates that the
interval and turning rgnt into
during a 15
second I minute, there u i l i
115. Findthe probability
that in a period of will be 0,
and turning right.
3 4 vehicles arriving
1, 2, or
of a vehicle arrivinp a n
Solution. Here, the possibility p two mutually excle
the
side road and turning
right, is one of the
probability of a vehicle arriving and
other being the not
events, the
turning right.
Hence, p
and q=1-p
n= Number of 15 second intervals in one
minute
=:4.
n n-pgn-)
Plr r!( .8-23)

(r0)t
256
625
3

Pir--15 4x164
( 256
5 125 625

Pir-13 (
96
22 625 625

4x 4 16
625 625

Pr4) ( ()
625
CTATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING
105
S T A T I S T T

Total probability : 256 256 + 96 +

16 1
625 625 625 625
625 625
625
625
1.
8.4-3. Poisson Distribution
As n becomes large, while the value of np is
a finite constant,
he Biromial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution as a
limit. Poisson distribution gives
P(r)= np'enp
r!

m'e-m .(8-24)
r!
where Pr) = Probability of a occurrence of an eventr times in n
trials.
p Probability of occurrence of the event in a single
trial.
e base of natural logarithms.
m= np

Poisson distribution is normally valid when:

()n is sufficiently large, say >» 50, and
(ii)p is small, say <<0-1.
In the above expressioa, it may be noted that
np = m7

average number of times the event occurs.

Poisson distribution has found useful application in many
aspects of trafic engineering. As early as 1936, Adams (Ref. 1)
discussed certain aspects of the application. The most widely used
situation is the arrival pattern of vehicles, which is a random
phenomenon.
The expression P(r) =2p e
r!

r!
an be conveniently modified to a more suitable form when dealing
the arrival pattern ofvehicles. min the above expression denotes
e average number of occurrences, which can be deteimined from
eved data orin the absence ofobserved data can be assumed from
experience. The observations can be instantaneous, or counting
n t s during a stated time interval or counting units in a definite
area etc. The
general definition for m then is
 BENGINEERING AND
106 TRAFFIC
TRANSPORT
m
Total number of events
observed
PLANNIN
Total number oftrials or time
interv vals
In the caseof arrival of traffic, m becomes the average
of vehicles per any stated time interval. The time intervo mbe
can
seconds, 15 seconds, 20 seconds or any value suitable to a n bebe 1o erval
study, andcan be designated as t seconds for the generalised« partic
. is the average rate of arrival per second, then
m = n.t
and the Poisson probability expression can be written as:
Probability of arrival of r vehicles in any time interal
t seconds. terval
-at

25)
If V is the number of vehicles per hour, the value of
simply is
V
3600
It should be noted that à and t in the above
be in the same units, viz., expression should
seconds, minutes or hour. It is convenient
to work with seconds in most situations.
As an example of the use the Poisson
distribution the following
data pertaining to the arrival pattern of vehicles at a toll booth
be considered. will
Problem 8-5. On a motorway, the number
of vehicles
from one direction in successive 10 seconds intervals arriving
was counted and
recorded in Table 8-5.
Table 8-55
Vehicles arriving in 10 seconds
intervals
Frequency
0
11
1
28
2 30
18
8
5
6
1
7 and over 0
Find out the mean rate
distribution and compare the of arrival and with the help oical
observed frequency with the theoreszn be
frequency. Does the data suggest that the
be
considered as random ? arrival patte
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR TRAFFIC ENGINEERING 107
Solution. The first step is to calculate the mean arrival rate,
e the mean number of vehicles arriving per unit time.
The working is facilitated by a tabular form as shown in Table
8-6.
Table 8-6
No. of Observed Total No. of Totaltime Theoretical Theoretical
vehicles frequenc) vehicles col (2)x probability probability
arriving col (1) x 10 sec. ofstated no. col (5) x
in 10 sec. col (2) ofarrivals
interval in 10 sec.
(7) (2) (3) 4) (5) (6
0 11 110 0-1353 13-53
1 28 28 280 0-2706 27-06
2 30 60 300 0-2706 27-06
3 18 54 180 0-1804 18-04
32 80 0-0932 9-02
5 20 40 0-0361 3-61
6 6 10 0-0120 1-20
7 and over 0 0-0048 0-48

| 2= 100 200 1000| =1-0000 =100-00

Dividing total of column 3 by total of column 4,
A=arrival per unittime (one second)
Total No. of vehicles arriving duringthe observation
Total time of observation
200
1000
0-2 vehicles per second.
In this example, t= time interval selected for observation

10 seconds
Pr)-a er
r!
10)
(0-2 x 10)' e-(02
x

r!

22
r!
Calculation of P(r) are facilitated by the following procedure:
Plr=0)= (a)e-at
0!
 AND TRANSPORT
108
TRAFFIC
ENGINEERING

= e =0.1353
ANNING
P(1)A)e-u
1
= P(0) xA=02706.

P ( 2 ) - ( a ) e - h r

2!

P(1) x=02706.
P ( 3 ) - a ) e - k

3!

=P(2) x A=01804.
3

P ( 4 ) = A ) ' e - a s

4!
=P(3) x=00902.
P(5)= e-e

5!

P(4) x=00561
P(6)-a)5e-

6!

P(5) x=00120.
6
P ( 7 ) - 4 e-u

7!
=
P(6) x
A=00035.
7
and Ptr2 7) =1-0-9952
0-0048.
Inthe above
procedure, the only computation involvinge was
pertormed caleulating P(0) and the rest ofthe computations
Simple
for were