Yarmouk University

Hajawi Faculty of Technology and Engineering

Industrial engineering department

IE 458
Simulation system
Application of Simulation on Food and Agriculture
Supply Chain System
Dr. Ghazi Magableh

Student Name Student ID

Abed Al-Rhman Msaie 2020986116

Oyes Ali Mahafzah 2020986012

Hamza Adnan Bdoor 2019986044

Zaid Adeeb Alshorman 2019986067

Mustafa Hani Bani-Hani 2020886044

Mahmoud J Al-Momani 2019986165

Mohammed Bani Hani 2018886022

Due to the increase of the population for Jordan in the
recent years, the demand for food has, so it’s been
required that companies have to deal with this
increase in a professional manner to avoid many
problems related to the transportation and storage of
products, also to measure the company's ability to
meet the needs of demand and their flexibility along
with their adaption ability to change.
There are several of these methods:
1- Mathematical model
2- simulations
1-What is mathematical modeling?
Mathematical modeling is a method that represents
and explains real systems and occurrences using math
formulas, descriptions and approaches. Professionals
use mathematical models to examine, analyze and
predict behavior and events. They also use it to solve
complex problems and answer questions.
A mathematical model follows these six basic steps
1. Define the problem.
2. Make an assumption.
3. Define the variables you want to use in your
model.
4. Calculate a solution.
5. Analyze and assess the model and its results to
validate its accuracy.
6. Report the results to your team, client or
audience.
 Advantages of a mathematical modeling:
Mathematical modeling offers scientists, engineers,
mathematicians and other professionals who use them The problem in this case is how to make the elements of the
many benefits, including:
1- It's extremely precise, since it's math-based, which
allows you to develop accurate ideas and assumptions. thousand tons
2-It's concise, with clear and established rules.
3-It guides you correctly to solve a problem.
4-it’s wide variety, you can choose from hundreds of proven demand for lentils, and here lies the problem, how to make
math formulas.
5-adabtable to technology, you can use software to
perform calculations and other functions.
6-The results provide you with an in-depth understanding of compared them with each other and compared
how a system or an object works
 Disadvantages of mathematical modeling:
1- The model is a simplification of the real problem
2- The model may only work in certain situations
3- The time it takes to complete the process takes a lot  We have chosen the method below to be our guide to
of time and effort compared to the simulation
2-Simulation is an alternative to mathematical modeling
A simulation is a model that mimics the operation of an
existing or proposed system, providing evidence for
decision-making by being able to test different scenarios or
process changes.
Simulation works through the use of intuitive simulation
software to create a visual mock-up of a process. This visual
simulation should include details of timings, rules, resources
and constraints, to accurately reflect the real-world process.
 Advantages of simulation
There are a range of advantages to be gained through the
use of simulation, including:
1- Less Financial Risk, beneficial to cost constrains
2- Exact Repeated Testing, can be repeated
3- Examine Long-Term Impact
4- Gain insights for Process Improvement, best for
studying future opportunities
5- Assess Random Events
6- Test Non-Standard Distributions
7- Encourages In-Depth Thinking, try different scenarios
8- Improve Stakeholder Buy-In
In this project, we will simulate the process of importing
(transporting, packing) lentils from Egypt to the port of
Aqaba then to the rest of the governorates, giving a real
supply and logistics chain of the Hashemite kingdom of
Jordan.
Define of case study
The case in the project as mentioned, is the process of
transporting Lentils from Egypt )Nuweiba Port( to the port
of Aqaba, then carrying out the process of packing, loading
and shipping it to the rest of the governorates.
system meet the needs of demand in Jordan, as based on
recent statistics, it is clear that Jordan consumes 43 tons per
day, at an average of 18 thousand tons annually to 22
Whereas, in order to carry out the packing process, we need
more than one packaging plant to accommodate Jordan's
one factory accommodate Jordan's demand for lentils?
We have solved this problem by using ProModel simulation
software, where we have tested many solutions and
performance metric to reach the ideal solution (The ability
to accommodate Jordan's demand for lentils) to the
problem
defining the problem and reach our optimal solution
 Define objectives and develop a project plan
Define
objectives
and develop The goal of building this model is to simulate the process of transporting goods
(lentils) to meet Jordan's annual demand, and to find all possible defects and
problems that giving a solution to them will direct us to the best alternatives and
Collect and plans.
analyze the challenge here lies in making a packaging factory that can meet with the
system data annual demand constrains of our product quantity to an entire country, such as
Jordan
We will take a simple overview of how it is going or what has been planned for
Build model the course of the process
First, we examined and simulate the monthly demand to Jordan, through the port
of Egypt. giving the close distance between the two ports (72000 meters.) We
have made a monthly request (frequency) this has saved us a lot, as we want to
minimize the storage capacity of the warehouses, the number of trucks and
resources. All this with taking into considerations the large demand of such a
Validate product.
model We then send the shipment to three different sites across Jordan: Middle, North,
and South, then it is distributed to retailers of each region, and in last to the final
consumers.
Now that we have identified the main axes of the model, let us discuss Jordan's
Conduct annual demand for lentils
Based on the latest statistics for the last three years, it was found that the
experiments average daily average consumption of Jordan is 43 to 50 tons per day, which is
equivalent to 15,000 - 23,000 tons per year.
We also see that the rate of increase in recent years is more than 2.5 percent, this
increase had been taken into account in terms of providing sufficient space for
Present storage (capacity), and providing resources to meet this increase (number of
results transportations units in the chain).
 let's move on to the Collect and analyze system data section

Collect and analyze system data

The process of gathering and analyzing accurate data from various sources in order to find answers of our defining
problems, trends and probabilities, etc.
Evaluate possible outcomes is Known as Data Collection.

The process of collecting information (planning and gathering) is the most important process, it constitutes 50
percent of the solution of the model. It must be taken into account that this data is based on reliable references, and
correct sources, because when it is not! it results problems in the simulation, giving false solutions.
we know that the simulation represents 98% of reality, so it is just yet another reason of the importance of reliable
correct data. The information must be very close to real systems

 we start with the information gathering process

number of working days, hours, and shifts, we assumed that 26 days a month, with two shifts of 16 hours in
accumulative (8hrs per shift) a day With 200 hr Warm up time, is enough working time to meet Jordan's monthly
demand for lentils.
This has n=been tested on the ProModel of course with relating to other constrains (speed, numbers of
transportations etc.).
So the process of distributing lentils to consumers takes place every 416 hours to a demand of 1250-1300 tons of
lentils per month, a demand that arrives first to the port of Aqaba.
 Now we will display all the information that we used to build the model
- First Locations
Name Location

Location one Location two Distance

Nuweiba port Egypt
between to
location
Aqaba port Aqaba Jordan
Nuweiba port Aqaba port 76100 m
Manufacturing and main Aqaba Aqaba port Manufacturing 14000 m
warehouse and main
warehouse
Manufacturing Irbid DC ware 406490 m
Amman main ware house Albeader Amman and main house
warehouse
Irbid DC ware house Hwwara Irbid
Manufacturing Amman main 328000 m
and main ware house
South DC ware house Maan Jordan warehouse
Manufacturing South DC ware 98360 m
R1 Irbid Edon Irbid
and main house
warehouse
Irbid DC ware R1 Irbid 7000
house
R2 Irbid Center of Irbid

Irbid DC ware R2 Irbid 12000

house
R1 Amman Alzarqa Amman main R1 Amman 29410
ware house
R2 Amman Madapa Amman main R2 Amman 39070
ware house
Amman main R3 Amman 28690
ware house
R3 Amman Ean albash Amman main R4 Amman 19440
ware house
R4 Amman Marka SOUTH DC Ware R1 south 101060
House
R5 south Alkarak SOUTH DC Ware R2 142160
House
R6 south Tafiela

After illustrating the locations of where our product will be shipped to, the distance (by meter) must be added too - pro
model doesn’t back up a by KM distance in the path network-

the objective from calculating distance is that our so we could set a path to our resources to move on, to mimic reality
and of course to calculate a real duration of all the process, both tables above show the wanted data related to such
information and locations.
- Secondly, Resources
In this category one must identify Speed, capacity of each, cost per hour of transportation and time for pick up
and deposit.
The first thing is capacity of the truck, ship, and type

 Ship, Panamax/ New Panamax:

capacity over 1250 tons
 The truck used between Aqaba and manufacturing packaging use (Dongfeng 12 wheel)
capacity is 50 tons (two container)
 The truck used between manufacturing packaging and Dc W.H used (Dongfeng 12)
Capacity is 25 tons (one container)
 The truck used between DC and retailers (Dongfeng 6)
capacity is 12.5 tons

- speed we calculated the Average/mean of speed then listed it in promodel using lognormal distribution
The cost of transportation
1- Ship (Panamax/ New Panamax) 1522 $ per shipment
2- The truck (Dongfeng 12 wheel) 42 $ for one travel
3- The truck (Dongfeng 12) 3 $ per Km
4- The truck (Dongfeng 6) 2-3 $ per Km

Some picture for truck

Dogfeng 6 Dogfeng 12 panamax

Containers Capacity (25000 kg) Lentil bag 50 kg

Build model
The first process that we must start is defining:

1- Locations
Locations represent places in the system where entities are routed for processing, storage, or
some other activity or decision making. Locations should be used to model elements such as
delivery locations, warehouse locations, network
servers, and transaction processing centers
These pictures show us location in my project

Now how calculate capacity

The average annual demand is 15000 ton
The capacity of main ware house Amman and Aqaba is (Annual demand / 4) = 3750ton
The capacity of Dc ware house Irbid and south is (Annual demand / 6) = 2500 ton
The capacity of retailers is (Annual demand/24) = 625 tons

2- Entity
Entities are the items processed through the system such as products, customers, and documents. Different
entities may have unique characteristics such as cost, shape, priority, quality, or condition

First entity is (lentil _ tons) this entity arrives Egypt port and the system combine (batch_lentile) entity for one batch
and send to Aqaba port by ship

Second entity (batch – two – 50 ton) when the first entity arrives to Aqaba port, a truck with a capacity of 50 tons is used
to transport the product to our Main WH so we made a split to 50 tons (two container) then send it to main ware house
and packaging factory attached with a truck of course (move with then free)

Third entity when (batch _container _50 ton) arrival main ware house and packaging factory make split for this entity
(lentil_bage_50_kg)

The forth entity is (capacity _of _truck _25 _ton) this entity is combine to (lentil _bag_50_kg)
3-Path
is track the dynamic resource is going on it

4-Resource
A resource is a person, piece of equipment, or some other device used for one or more of the
following functions: transporting entities, assisting in performing operations on entities at locations, performing
maintenance on locations, or performing maintenance on other resources

1- Panamax the capacity much larger than our demand so we set it to infinite (giving it’s always ready to carry whatever
capacity we need)

2- Dongfeg12 the capacity 50 ton

3- Dongfeg6 capacity 25 ton

4- Dongfeg4 capacity 12.5 ton

5- Arrival
Any time new entities are introduced into the system, it is called an arrival. An arrival record is
defined by specifying the following information:
•Number of new entities per arrival
•Frequency of the arrivals
•Location of the arrival
•Time of the first arrival
•Total occurrences of the arrival

6- Processing
Processing defines the routing of entities through the system and the operations that take place at each location they
enter. Once entities have entered the system, as defined in the Arrivals table, processing specifies everything that
happens to them until they exit the system

Rules : Amman (M.H) = 0.5 Irbid DC = 0.3 South DC = 0.2 all Retailers =0.25

Images of process are so many, they can be viewed on the software, so please look at the attached ProModel fi
Validate model
Validation is an inductive process in which the
modeler draws conclusions about the accuracy of
the model based on the evidence available.
Most techniques used in validation such as
1- Watching animation
As we have seen, when running our model for a
month, we see all the elements move in a proper
and orderly manner based on the orders given to
the system, but when we run for a longer period,
it is difficult for us to use this method to
validation the model.
So we will use other methods
2- Testing against historical data
If historical information exists for both
operating and performance data, the model can
be tested using the same
operating data and comparing the results with the
historical performance
data.
Based on the data obtained, it was found that
Jordan annually consumes 15,000 tons of lentils.
After running the model for a year, a number was
obtained soon, and when a comparison was
made, it was found that the error rate does not
exceed 1%.
3- Performing sensitivity analysis
We change data deliberately to discover errors
and fix them (in one of the months we raised the
request to see how the system will respond to or
under such circumstances (trial and error or
setting constrains) (discovering relations, what to
maximize what to minimize and set them to do a
sensitivity analysis)
A common method of validating a model of an
existing system is to
compare the model performance with that of the
actual system.
These three methods were used to validation of
The model
System Performance Metrics
Performance Metric are used to measure and
monitor system behavior to make
improvements and deal with errors. User
measures cannot be calculated using software,
so we define them in the form of variables and
then add them to the process.
1-Lead time
Lead time is the amount of time that passes
from the start of a process until its conclusion.
Or Lead time measures how long it takes to
complete a process from beginning to end.
2-Production quantity
The number of pieces that are produced in the
process
In the model, we measured the amount of
production in the packaging plant
3-transfer cost
It is the cost needed to transport the goods
from one region to another
4- service level
Service level is the metrics by which a
particular service is measured. Service level is
mostly used in the service-based industries.
Service level provides the expectations of
quality and service type and also remedies
when requirements are not met.
Equation used in pro model
Lead time:
L = L + (Process time from start to finish(
Production quantity:
Inc (entity)
Transfer cost:
Cost = cost + (distance*cost per km or m or
feet)
Service level:
Production quantity
Scenarios and comparison

We created two scenarios for the model using:

Macros and Scenario Manger, then ran the simulation for a year

The first scenario

The first scenario included a number of resources as follows
Dongfeg6 Amman = 4 trucks (Number of Trucks)
Dongfeg6 Irbid = 2 trucks (Number of Trucks)
Dongfeg6 South = 2 trucks (Number of Trucks)
The result of the first scenario
First the Annual demand result is 13750 ton this demand is less than ideal demand the ideal demand is ( 15 to
24) thousands of ton the figure show this )scoreboard)

Annual demand is less than

required

This means that the number of

shipments used for the
transportation process is not
enough, so you must increase the
number in the next scenario
Entity state (results)
As seen in the following figure

The percentage of blocked is high) 96.53) %in the packaging factory, this had caused us major
problems and delays in the system
waiting time equal is 86.7% indicating that goods is waiting in Aqaba port

Waiting

Time Equal 86.7%

Blocked time

Equal 96.53

Multiple Capacity Location States – Baseline

As shown, the capacity of the main warehouse and packaging is full most of the time (80.9%) this is due to the
accumulation of goods, the inability of trucks to meet the demand in simpler terms:

The product is waiting in this location at the heist level, giving the low number of trucks RELETAVILY (enough for demand
distribution)

Utilization of recourse
Another thing is that the rate of Utilization is very high (sometimes when the Utilization is
high, it is considered good), but in contrast, the results resulting from this Utilization must be
satisfied with the request, but as we saw previously, the results are not compatible with what
is required
Other important Results

Utilization

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.1 17.20% utilization is low, indicating that number of trucks is more than enough. minimize

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.2 2.95%

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.3 0.52%

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.4 0.32%

Dongfeng6 Irbid.1 87.88 % the utilization is high, good thing

Dongfeng6 Irbid.2 90 .24 % because the results are not as desired

Dongfeng6 south .1 66.7 % the Utilization is medium to high, take into consideration cost constrains or
qualitative constrains to max or mini such a response

Dongfeng6 south .2 68.41 %

Variables
Now we will look at the variables that matter to me in the variable
1-production quantity
2- inventory level
We will compare these values with the values of the second scenario to decide which scenario we will work
with

From the previous results, it became clear to me that Irbid needs an increase in the number of trucks to solve some of
the problems, and this is what we will address in the second scenario, where we increased the number of shipments
Second Scenario
In the second scenario, we have increased the number of shipments to the following numbers:

Dongfeg6 Amman = 5 trucks (Number of Trucks)

Dongfeg6 Irbid = 4 trucks (Number of Trucks)

Dongfeg6 South = 5 trucks (Number of Trucks)

We ran for a year and the following results appeared

First the Annual demand result is 21250 ton this demand is ideal the ideal demand is ( 15 to 24) thousands of
ton the figure show this )scoreboard)

Annual demand between

the required range

Entity state
As seen in the following figure

The percentage of blocked is very low than first scenario )22.47) % this problem is solved in two scenario

And waiting time equal is 90% so the goods is waiting in Aqba port this can’t solved by increase the number of truck

This problem can solve by make the truck directly send batch container two 50-ton entity to Amman Main ware house

And this packaging process make two location Amman and Aqba (Main Ware house) but this process exceeds the cost,
which may not fit into my budget (transportation and packaging fees increase).

The blocked is
less than last
scenario
(22.47)%
Multiple Capacity Location States – Baseline
We also note that the percentage of filling the Main Ware house and packaging factory decreased by a large percentage
(30.2) %

Utilization of recourse

As shown in the picture above

also not

Utilization

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.1 23.07% We notice that Utilization values have decreased a lot, which means that
trucks

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.2 8.5% operate without pressure, as in the past scenario

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.3 0.37%

Dongfeng6 1 Amman.4 0.14%

Dongfeng6 Irbid.1 71.3 % the Utilization is medium to high but less than past scenario

Dongfeng6 Irbid.2 69.5 %

Dongfeng6 south .1 46.19% The utilization is low to medium but less than past scenario

Dongfeng6 south .2 46.29 %

We note that the percentage of use in the second scenario is lower than the percentage in the
first scenario
This means that the quantity of goods that will reach the three (main two Dc) warehouses will
increase, which will lead to meeting Jordan's need for lentils.
Variable:

We also have noticed that the production quantity in our packaging factory increases with the
Annual demand, which is fully logical.
the inventory level for three, DC’s and + Main houses and Dc increases with every product unit
that enters (logical)
by taking everything we mentioned into consecration, it looks sensible to choose the second
scenario:
for several reasons; 1- its ability to meet Jordan's demand for lentils 2- time taken is less than
the previous scenario
budget or cost constrains must be taken into account, as an increase in the number of trucks
will result in an increase in the cost, but in return it will result in an increase in the percentage
of sales optimize your best SL to the Best profit.
Solve the problem
problem

As we noticed in the previous scenarios, the goods

spend most of their time waiting at the port of Aqaba
This problem is not solved by increasing the number
of transport trucks, because it may cause a blocked of goods in the warehouse and the main
packaging factory in Aqaba.
However, a solution to this problem was found, as the entire scenario was changed as follows
We will open a small packaging factory in Amman and a second packaging factory in Aqaba,
where the goods leaving the port of Aqaba will be divided in half, and then the first half will be
sent to Amman.
And the second half of the dome via trucks in action will greatly reduce the waiting time for
the goods
Where the scenario takes place as the following figure: A Plan for Future

I expect that after this scenario works, the waiting time for the goods in the port of Aqaba will
be reduced, plus taking into consideration that we will also have to increase the nu. of trucks
in transportation to the new packaging factories or maybe just double the shifts
And do not forget that the cost may increase from increasing the number of trucks to opening
a new packaging factory with of course the cost of packaging factory itself
So as said Optimize to the Best combination of both SL and Total profit

Replication optimization and analysis

We have Replication the second scenario five times, and the result is as follows
P (x − hw ≤ μ ≤ x + hw) = 1 – α
We will narrow the distance between the upper and lower
Upper limit = 376122.37
Lower limit =173877.63
X bar = 275000
We also notice that the distance is Upper between the largest and the Lower
The greater the number of Replication, the less distance between the two values. To determine how many
Replication are required, we will solve the following equation
hw=e= (tn-1, α/2) sn
n = (tn-1, α/2) se2
ń = (zα/2) se2 )estimated)
We excel sheet to calculated the n estimation (to production quantity variable
(zα/2) = -1.64485, e= 50 000
The ń = 12.25125 = 13 replication
We make 13 replications to get production quantity
Between 225000 <= production quantity <= 325000
We can work on all kinds of variable to limit their values and know how many replications are needed for
the operation

Arrival Cycle

Additional information you want to add to a project is a table function enter it on a form arrival

Pictures show how it works Please zoom in and out for better vision. Thank you

The name of table

Quantity

Monthly order schedule

The table below shows the date of arrival of the shipment and its quantity
As we ordered every 416 hours, I received an order of 1250-1300 tons
The table is defined in a
The table can be defined as arrival column Qty Each

When you run the order form, it will arrive based on the numbers in the table that can be dispensed with
1- Occurrence 2- frequency

Conclusion

In last
we have put our maximum effort to reach to the best possible scenarios after taking into
consecration, and giving much thoughts, to the constrains we noticed, listed, told, and studied.
All the process of how, was explained in detailed at and under every point.
Our simple method of problem solving was
 Plan.
 Design.
 Conduct.
 Analyze.
 Conclusion.
 Notice, maintain and repeat if needed or develop if there’s a chance
we will be available for a presentation of our humble work, to discuss and give further
explanations and guidance through our work.
We hope that this project had giving us and you the opportunities to see and learn the
importance of such course to all application and its wide variability for usage
again the applications for such course is infinite and every major, small or large, domestic or
local, are all in need for such course and its outcome of learning objectives.
Thank you.