Problem Sheet 1 (Probability)

1. If a new type of torch battery has a voltage that is outside certain limits, that battery is
characterised as a failure (F); if the battery has a voltage within the prescribed limits, it is a
success (S). Suppose an experiment consists of testing each battery as it comes off an assembly
line until we first observe a success. Although it may not be very likely, a possible outcome of
this experiment is that the first 10 (or 100 or 1000 or ..) are F’s and the next one is an S. That
is, for any positive integer n, we may have to examine n batteries before seeing the first S. We
can denote by FFS the outcome that we have to test n = 2 batteries before the first success.
Using this notation
(i) Write down 5 other outcomes in the sample space. How large is this sample space? [2]
(ii) List the outcomes in the event that at most three batteries are examined. [1]
(iii) List 3 outcomes in the event that an even number of batteries is examined. [2]

2. The probability that a man reads newspaper A is 0.6, while the probability that he reads both
newspaper A and B is 0.1 and the probability that he reads neither paper is 0.2. What is the
probability that he reads newspaper B? [3]

3. For the events A and B, P (A) = 0.3, P (B) = 0.6 and P (A0 ∩ B 0 ) = c, where c 6= 0.
(i) Find P (A ∩ B) in terms of c. [3]
(ii) Find P (B | A) and deduce that 0.1 ≤ c ≤ 0.4. [3]

4. For the mutually exclusive events A and B, P (A) = P (B) = x, where x 6= 0.

(i) Show that x ≤ 12 . [1]
(ii) Show that A and B are not independent. [2]
The event C is independent of A and also independent of B, and P (C) = 2x.
(iii) Show that P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = 4x(1 − x). [4]

5. For the event L and M , P (L | M ) = 0.2, P (M | L) = 0.4, and P (M ) = 0.6.

(i) Find P (L) and P (L0 ∪ M 0 ). [3]
(ii) Given that, for the event N , P (N | (L ∩ M )) = 0.3, find P (L0 ∪ M 0 ∪ N 0 ) [3]
6. For the events A and B, P (A) = P (B) = 3
4 and P (A | B 0 ) = 12 .
(i) Find P (A ∩ B). [4]
1
For a third event C, P (C) = 4 and C is independent of the event A ∩ B.
(ii) Find P (A ∩ B ∩ C). [1]
(iii) Given that P (C | A) = λ and P (B | C) = 3λ, and that no event occurs outside A ∪ B ∪ C,
find the value of λ. [5]

7. Events A and B are such that P (A) = 0.3 and P (A | B) = 0.6.

(i) Show that P (B) ≤ 0.5. [3]
(ii) Given also that P (A ∪ B) = x, find P (B) in terms of x. [2]

8. Each question on a multiple-choice examination paper has n possible responses, only one of
which is correct. Joni takes the paper and has probability p, where 0 < p < 1, of knowing the
correct response to any question, independently of any other. If she knows the correct response
she will choose it, otherwise she will choose randomly from the n possibilities. The events K
and A are ‘Joni knows the correct response’ and ‘Joni answers correctly’ respectively.
q + np
(i) Show that P (A) = , where q = 1 − p. [3]
n
(ii) Find P (K | A). [3]

9. For the event A and B it is given that

P (A) = 0.6, P (B) = 0.3, and P (A or B but not both) = 0.4.

(i) Find P (A ∩ B). [3]

(ii) Find P (A0 ∩ B). [1]
(iii) State, giving a reason, whether A and B are independent. [1]