SBS DBIA Day 4 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

McKinsey 2014

International Brands
Local Brands
Deloitte, 2014
McKinsey 2014
Diageo

Nostalgia. It’s delicate, but potent.

Teddy told me that in Greek,
"nostalgia" literally means
"the pain from an old wound."
It's a twinge in your heart far
more powerful than memory
Duggan DBIA SBS 2023 alone.
This device isn't a spaceship, it's
a time machine. It goes
backwards, and forwards... it
takes us to a place where we
ache to go again.

It lets us travel the way a
child travels - around and
around, and back home
again, to a place where
we know we are loved.
1926: Million acres, 99-year lease
1930s-1950s rubber was 40% of national revenue

Open Door Policy for FDI
40 major concessions
Shift to mining
“Growth without development”

The Samuel Doe coup d’etat

Charles Taylor and the Liberian civil wars, 1989 - 2003

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
President: 2006-2018

Liberia: GDP per capita in 2010 U.S. Dollars
1800
1600
6.8% growth,
1400 on average
Constant 2010 US Dollars
1200 2005-2010
1000
800
600
400
200
0
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
$13.6 billion in concessions
Between 2005 and 2011

Liberia’s Exports, 2013

By some estimates, Liberia is the 4th poorest country in the world.
More than 60% of the population lives below the poverty line
Upper Guinean Forest Ecosystem

60 percent of the country’s population (700,000 households) lives
near forests and depends on them for their food and livelihoods
In 2012, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
approved licenses for companies to cut down
58% of Liberia’s primary rainforest.
(There was an uproar and they were cancelled)

$2 per bag
~1,000 bags in 3 months

(School fees for 12th grade: $58 per term)

78% of forest lies within 5km of a road

Palm Oil Production (1000s of Metric Tons)
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
1965 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018
Nigeria Indonesia Malaysia Liberia Rest of World
Oil palm trees produce 4-10 times more oil per hectare than other
oil seeds—5 times more than soya, which is the next most efficient

Palm oil is 38% of global edible oil, but grows on only 5% of
the land dedicated to oilseed crops around the world, while
providing work for more than 6 million people
Liberia: estimates of 80-90,000 plantation jobs;
25,000 jobs for smallholders (plus 10,000s of other
jobs in the value chain, tax revenue, and FX)

The African Governance Initiative
estimated that if 25% of Liberia’s
oil palm concessions (or 187,000
ha) were developed, the value of
palm oil exports would equal the
value of iron ore exports ($400m)

(Inadequate legal framework for land rights)
45% of Sime Darby’s undeveloped land bank in Liberia contains high-density forest
220,000 ha of land to be developed into oil palm and rubber plantations in Liberia.
To date, Sime Darby has planted 10,411 haSBSpalm
Duggan DBIA 2023 oil
In 2014 Norway offers
$150m if Liberia stops
deforestation and puts at
least 30% of its forest
under protection.

High Carbon Stock Approach

Complaints lodged through RSPO:
Requirement for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC)
Non-compliant producers risk de-certification
Also environmental criteria:
“The status of rare, threatened or endangered species and high

conservation value habitats, if any, that exist in the plantation or that could
be affected by plantation or mill management, shall be identified and their
conservation taken into account in management plans and operations.”

Liberia’s Exports, 2021

Uganda: Fiscal Accounts
Exhibit 8 Government Fiscal Data

(billions of Uganda Shillings)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Receipts 1,368.90 1,660.10 2,531.90 2,539.90 2,695.10 2,816.70 3,091.40 3,208.60 3,455.60 3,897.60 4,592.10
Tax revenue -- -- 1,074.90 1,212.00 1,401.30 1,642.10 1,887.50 2,231.00 2,625.80 3,161.10 3,662.30
Grants -- -- 1,448.70 1,286.50 1,269.10 1,147.40 1,177.10 895.6 733.2 650.8 788.3
Grants as % of total revenue -- -- 57.2 50.7 47.1 40.7 38.1 27.9 21.2 16.7 17.2
Expenditures 1,478.00 2,300.40 2,629.60 2,920.70 3,139.00 3,014.50 3,215.00 3,487.70 3,956.60 4,265.60 4,937.00
Current expenditure -- -- 2,219.70 2,473.80 2,687.70 2,492.80 2,673.80 3,019.90 3,487.70 3,736.30 4,167.10
Interest payments -- -- 116.2 146.1 174.1 262.4 237.8 249.9 236.3 309.4 357.9
Capital expenditure -- -- 409.9 447 451.2 521.7 541.2 467.8 468.9 529.3 769.9
Overall balance (cash basis) -109 -640.3 -97.7 -380.8 -443.9 -197.8 -123.6 -279.1 -501 -368 -344.9
Overall balance as % of GDP -1.2 -6.8 -1 -3.5 -3.5 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 -1.3 -1

Uganda: Fiscal Accounts
Exhibit 8 Government Fiscal Data

(billions of Uganda Shillings)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Receipts 1,660.10 2,531.90 2,539.90 2,695.10 2,816.70 3,091.40 3,208.60 3,455.60 3,897.60 4,592.10
Tax revenue -- 1,074.90 1,212.00 1,401.30 1,642.10 1,887.50 2,231.00 2,625.80 3,161.10 3,662.30
Grants -- 1,448.70 1,286.50 1,269.10 1,147.40 1,177.10 895.6 733.2 650.8 788.3
Grants as % of total revenue -- 57.2 50.7 47.1 40.7 38.1 27.9 21.2 16.7 17.2
Expenditures 2,300.40 2,629.60 2,920.70 3,139.00 3,014.50 3,215.00 3,487.70 3,956.60 4,265.60 4,937.00
Current expenditure -- 2,219.70 2,473.80 2,687.70 2,492.80 2,673.80 3,019.90 3,487.70 3,736.30 4,167.10
Interest payments -- 116.2 146.1 174.1 262.4 237.8 249.9 236.3 309.4 357.9
Capital expenditure -- 409.9 447 451.2 521.7 541.2 467.8 468.9 529.3 769.9
Overall balance (cash basis) -640.3 -97.7 -380.8 -443.9 -197.8 -123.6 -279.1 -501 -368 -344.9
Overall balance as % of GDP -6.8 -1 -3.5 -3.5 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 -1.3 -1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total accumulated foreign debt
Millions of current USD 3,497 3,731 3,980 4,535 4,745 4,421 1,260 1,611 2,249 2,554*
% GDP 55.9 58.9 59.7 64.3 56.2 44 11.4 11.9 13.7 15.2*
per capita (USD) 143.1 148 152.8 168.6 170.8 154 42.5 52.6 71 78.1*
Annual foreign aid
Millions of current USD 853 821 728 996 1,215 1,191 1,553 1,736 1,657 --
% GDP 13.8 14.1 11.8 15.7 14.3 13.2 15.7 14.6 11.5 --

Uganda: GDP
Exhibit 6 National Income Accounts
1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nominal GDP (billions of $) 4.5 4.1 6.9 6.3 6.34 6.7 7.1 8.4 10 11 13.6 16.4 16.8 17.5
Real GDP (billions of constant 2005 $) 3 3.8 5.3 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.1 10 10.8 11.6 12.8 13.5 14.3
Real annual GDP growth (%) -3.3 6.5 11.5 5.6 5 6.9 6 6 10 7.1 8 10.4 5.3 6.1
Population (millions) 14.8 17.7 21 24.4 25.2 26 26.9 27.8 28.7 29.7 30.6 31.7 32.7 33.8
Real GDP per capita (constant 2005 $) 199.7 213.3 253.2 298.1 303.1 312.1 320.3 328.6 349.8 362.6 379.1 405.1 412.7 423.9
Real GDP per capita (constant 2005 $, 573 612 727 856 870 896 920 944 1,005 1,042 1,089 1,164 1,186 1,218
PPP)
Consumer price inflation (annual %) -- -- 6.6 3.4 1.9 -0.3 8.7 3.7 8.5 7.3 6.2 11.6 12.7 4.7
Productivity growth -6.4 2.5 7.8 2.4 1.7 3 2.6 2.6 6.5 3.6 4.6 6.9 1.9 2.7
Structure of nominal GDP (%)
Private consumption 80.4 88.9 83.6 78.7 78.2 78.3 76.9 74.6 74.9 80.1 77 81.3 78 78.7
Government consumption 11.6 8.6 10.3 14.8 15.4 15.6 14.8 14.5 13.7 13.3 11.2 10 8.6 8.3
Gross fixed investment 6.9 13.7 16 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.6 21.3 20.5 22.7 20.1 20.8 20.7
Exports 9.9 6.4 10 9.9 10.9 10.6 11.9 13.4 15.2 14.9 18.9 20 23.7 24.5
Imports 9.9 18.2 20.4 21.6 23.4 24.1 24.4 24.2 25.3 29 30 31.6 31.4 32.5
GDP composition by industry (% GDP)
Agriculture 38.2 41 35.8 27.1 26.4 24 25.6 24.6 25.5 24 22.1 23.1 24.3 23.6
Industry 11.1 12.4 16.1 22.8 22.8 24.1 23.3 24.1 24.4 23.7 25.6 25.6 24.7 24.5
Services 43.8 38 42.6 49.7 50.9 52 51.2 51.3 50.1 52.3 52.3 51.3 51 51.9

Uganda: GDP 1965-2015
100
80
60
40
20
0
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
-20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
-40
Household Consumption Investment
Government Consumption Net Exports
Uganda: GDP 1965-2015
100
80
60
40
20
0
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
-20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
-40
Household Consumption Investment
Government Consumption Net Exports
Uganda: GDP Components (Percent of
GDP), 1965-2015
Nigeria GDP Components
100 100
(Percent of GDP), 1985-
2014
80 80
60 60
Percent
40 40
20 20
0 0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 198519952001200320052007200920112013
-20
-20
Household Consumption Investment Consumption Gross Fixed Investment

Uganda: GDP Components (Percent of
GDP), 1965-2015
Nigeria GDP Components
100 100
(Percent of GDP), 1985-
2014
80 80
60 60
Percent
40 40
20 20
0 0
198519952001200320052007200920112013
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
-20 -20
Government Consumption Net Exports Government Spending Net Exports

Elections, 2011
Uganda: The Constitution of Development

Idi
Amin
“In any country there must be people who have to die. They are the sacrifices
any nation has to make to achieve law and order.”
“If you had not elected us in 1996…we would have
gone back to the bush to fight.”
A “Founder’s” Dilemma?

The unintended consequences of good intentions
Refugee camp, 2003

Trust in Financial Institutions, Uganda
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Trust Banks Don't Trust Trust SACCOs Don't Trust
Banks SACCOs
2006 2013
Duggan DBIA SBS 2023 From Finscope Uganda, n=2,959 (2006), n=3,401 (2013)
On Citizenship

What's past is prologue, what to come
In yours and my discharge.
William Shakespeare (The Tempest)

SBS DBIA Day 4 2023

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SBS DBIA Day 4 2023

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Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

1930s-1950s rubber was 40% of national revenue

“Growth without development”

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

(There was an uproar and they were cancelled)

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Requirement for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC)

Non-compliant producers risk de-certification

Also environmental criteria:

“The status of rare, threatened or endangered species and high

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Exhibit 8 Government Fiscal Data

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Exhibit 8 Government Fiscal Data

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

GDP composition by industry (% GDP)

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Uganda: The Constitution of Development

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

Duggan DBIA SBS 2023

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