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Life Cycle of a Mining Project 2
• Although investing in exploration and • The riskiness of the exploration stages is well-
development companies carries high risks, the documented. Only 10% of gold deposits have
potential rewards are correspondingly significant. sufficient gold to warrant further development,
while less than 0.1% of prospected sites ultimately
• The Lassonde curve aptly captures the life cycle reach production.
of a mining project.
• Diversification is crucial when investing in
• At each of the seven main phases of the life cycle, exploration and development-stage mining
various risks may arise, some of which could spell companies.
the end of the project, and possibly even the
company itself.
Introduction
Most of them (mining There are numerous mining companies listed on stock markets,
companies) won't make it...but ranging from large, diversified mining behemoths to micro-cap
what about the ones that do? If exploration companies with limited funds and the dream of
I'm in early and I stay the discovering a viable mineral deposit. This provides investors with a broad
ground, I press the bet. It's like spectrum of investment opportunities in mining projects at varying stages of
being at a table with a winning development, each with different levels of risk and corresponding levels of
run, you keep doubling down. potential profits.
Eric Sprott
While it may be relatively easy to make a near-certain bet that Canada will win an
ice hockey game against Japan, the resulting profit would likely be meager.
Conversely, correctly predicting that Austria will beat Sweden would yield a much
more significant profit. And if one were to somehow predict the victory of
Liechtenstein over Finland, the resulting profits could amount to thousands of
percent. Similarly, correctly selecting an early-exploration-stage
company that successfully advances to mine construction decision, or
even to mine commissioning, can yield substantial profits.
Bullion doesn’t pay interest or The renowned Lassonde curve is named after its author, Pierre
dividends, nor does it grow or Lassonde, a legendary figure in the mining industry, and it effectively
expand by itself. That’s the price portrays the life cycle of a mining project. Utilizing his extensive experience,
you pay for tranquility. Lassonde outlined, for the first time, the typical behavior of investors and,
Pierre Lassonde consequently, the market valuation of a mining project at various development
stages, in a 1990 book titled The Gold Book: The Complete Investment Guide to
Precious Metals.
The sky is the limit to what Decades ago, miners were only capable of extracting visible gold, which resulted in
technology can do for the mining many deposits being abandoned as depleted. However, it is possible that
sector. these abandoned deposits still contain significant volumes of gold,
Vince Gerrie given the current technologies and gold prices that make it profitable
to mine ore containing less than 1 g/t gold.
You’ll find me out there. Another option is to search through archives for old exploration results. It is
There’s gold there somewhere. feasible that several decades ago a company or government agency was looking for
Cormac O Caoimh a specific mineral, such as uranium, and discovered potential deposits of other
metals. However, as their goal was to locate uranium, they did not pursue these
deposits and left the exploration results forgotten in the archives.
Phase 2: Pre-Discovery
Following the concept phase, the pre-discovery phase begins, where
fieldwork is initiated on the acquired property. The company starts by
collecting water and soil samples to identify anomalous levels of specific metals.
Geophysical surveys are conducted to detect magnetic anomalies beneath the
surface that may indicate the presence of higher concentrations of metals.
According to the Lassonde curve, the concept and pre-discovery phases
may take up to 4–5 years. However, the duration of these phases is heavily
dependent on the availability of funding. If the company has sufficient funds,
which is typically not the case, the early works may be completed much quicker.
Conversely, if the company lacks adequate funding, the entire process may take
longer or even result in the company’s bankruptcy without any progress being
made.
The Discovery phase of World Positive drill results typically trigger a surge of speculation in the stock
Class Discoveries is a short lived market, causing the company’s share price, and thus the perceived
strong uptrend. The majority of value of the project by the market, to rise rapidly. However, while this
the gains are made in less than situation may yield substantial profits for existing investors, new investors may
one year. find themselves at risk of suffering significant losses. Exploration companies are
Willem Middelkoop often undercapitalized, and the opportunity to leverage the recently inflated share
price to secure equity financing is highly tempting, particularly given the
considerable costs associated with delineating even a relatively small deposit,
which can run into tens of millions of US dollars. For larger deposits, costs can
easily exceed USD 100mn. As a result, equity financing may quickly put an end to
the momentum.
Drilling is a major expense during this phase of the project life cycle.
The cost of drilling depends on several factors, such as the location’s remoteness,
the depth of the drill hole, and the type of rock being drilled. For instance, 2021
data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec revealed that the average cost per
meter of off-minesite exploration and deposit appraisal drilling was USD 217.18,
ranging, however, from USD 195.52 in the Abitibi-Temiscamingue region to
USD 528.27 in the Cote-Nord region. Abitibi, located in the southwestern part of
the province with excellent infrastructure, incurs lower costs. Conversely, Cote-
Nord has harsh weather conditions, poor infrastructure, and less-accessible
projects, resulting in higher expenses. Furthermore, costs have steadily
risen, almost doubling since 2006, as illustrated in the chart below.
200 182.30
178.6 173.4
166.8 165.8 169.1
148.4 149.4 146.8 144.4 143.5 150.2
150 140.6 142.2
110.52
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
The road to freedom must be The challenge is that exploration costs are increasing while the number
uphill, even if it is arduous and of new gold discoveries is decreasing. According to the chart below, the
frustrating. number of new gold discoveries reached its last peak around 2010, although the
Andrew Goodman volume of exploration expenditures peaked two years later. Since then, both the
number of new discoveries and the volume of exploration expenditures have
declined rapidly. While the volume of expenditures in 2020 has increased
somewhat recently, the number of new gold discoveries had fallen to new all-time
lows.
90
14
80
12
70
10
60
8 50
40
6
30
4
20
2
10
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Brother, can you spare a dime? The trend of increasing discovery costs is also depicted in the chart
Bing Crosby below. Between 2000 and 2009, the average cost was USD 77mn, while between
2010 and 2019 it rose to USD 178mn. The issue is that most of the easily
accessible deposits have already been discovered. What remains are often
deposits located in more remote areas, as well as deposits buried deep beneath the
surface.
350
2010-2019
300 USD 178 mn
Average Size:
250 2.69 moz
200
2000-2009
1990-1999 USD 77 mn
1980-1989
150 USD 55 mn
USD 45 mn
Average Size:
100 Average Size: 2.21 moz
Average Size:
2.33 moz
2.47 moz
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Phase 4: Feasibility
Victory has a thousand fathers, Even in the absence of significant equity financing that could potentially dilute
but defeat is an orphan. shareholder value, as the mining project advances into the feasibility stage, the
John F. Kennedy initial enthusiasm surrounding it tends to wane. Speculators come to the
realization that the period of rapid returns has reached its conclusion
– at least temporarily – and the construction of the mine, assuming it
comes to fruition, will likely take several years. Consequently, they begin to
cash in their profits and redirect their attention towards a new and promising
discovery elsewhere. This shift in investor sentiment results in a decline in
the company’s stock price, commonly referred to as the orphan period.
One of the biggest risks to the The feasibility stage of a mining project typically spans a duration of 2
technical and economic viability to 3 years, during which various economic studies are conducted. These
of any mining project is a poor studies include the preliminary economic assessment (PEA), pre-feasibility study
understanding of the geology or (PFS), and the feasibility study (FS). The PEA outlines the initial concept of the
resource estimation. future mining operation, detailing the annual production volume and cost
Neal Rigby & Ben Parsons projections, as well as providing estimates for capital expenditures required to
construct the mine and calculating the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of
return (IRR). Sensitivity analysis is also performed to assess the impact of
variables such as metal prices, energy prices, foreign exchange rates, and discount
factors on the NPV and IRR. The NPV and IRR are key figures in determining the
economic feasibility of the project, with a desirable outcome being an NPV that
exceeds capital expenditures and an IRR of over 20%.
The PFS and FS studies provide further refinement of the mining operation, with
more reliable estimates of the project economics. The feasibility study is the most
reliable of the technical-economic studies. The estimates provided by the
feasibility study should be accurate to within plus or minus 15% of
reality, making the study a critical tool for obtaining debt financing
from banks or other financial institutions.
Concept "What it could be" "What it should be" "What it will be"
Phase 5: Development
After a successful feasibility stage, the development stage of the mining project
commences. This phase involves not only the actual construction of the
mine but also the necessary permitting and financing procedures. The
Size does matter. There's a lot of The financing process for a mining project is a complex matter that
ways to make people feel good, requires careful consideration. Ideally, the project should be financed using
but personally I think it does internal financial sources or a combination of internal sources and debt.
enhance things. However, this option is typically only available to established mining
Pamela Anderson companies. Smaller miners or pure developers may have to rely on
less-favourable financing options. Debt financing typically covers only a
portion of the construction capex, usually around 50-60%. The remaining funds
can be obtained through various means, such as the sale of a stream, royalty 1 or
off-take rights, selling a portion of the project to a joint-venture partner, or by
raising equity financing.
Studies have demonstrated that While equity financing is usually the least preferred option for shareholders, it is
investing in shares of miners at often included in the financing package. The level of share dilution resulting from
the point of a construction the financing package varies from project to project and can have a significant
decision until the first output of impact on investors’ future profits. For example, high interest rates on debt,
metal has a very high success unfavourable royalty or stream terms, unfavourable JV partnership terms, or
rate. That's because there's a excessive share dilution can greatly diminish the upside potential. Therefore,
sense of clarity and definitive while the announcement of a large financing package may be
timeline. Investors can see the considered positive news, its impact on the share price is not always
company's finish line to positive and sometimes barely moves it.
becoming a new producer.
Peter Krauth Once all necessary permits and financing have been secured, mine
construction may commence and typically takes around 1–2 years.
However, in the case of exceptionally large or remote projects, or underground
mines with ore bodies situated at significant depths, construction may take longer.
It’s important to note that during this time, unforeseen issues may
arise, as is possible during any phase of the mining project’s life cycle.
Nevertheless, assuming construction proceeds without major problems, the share
price should gradually increase as the mine’s commissioning draws closer.
Phase 6: Startup
To succeed, planning alone is The startup phase is important because it’s when the mine is finished
insufficient. One must improvise and production begins. However, even if everything goes according to plan, the
as well. process of ramping up production can take several months, or even more than a
Isaac Asimov year in the case of complex underground projects. During this time, the share price
may be affected by any negative news indicating potential complications or the
possibility that original production targets won’t be met.
-
1
For a deep dive on royalties and streamers, see “Royalty & Streaming Companies: An Excellent Way of Investing in
Gold,” In Gold We Trust report 2022
Phase 7: Depletion
In the depletion phase, the company extracts mineral resources from
the mine and the mine’s reserves start to decrease. However, the company
can prolong this phase by exploring the surrounding areas and discovering new
deposits or expanding the current ones.
Mining is like a search-and- As depicted in the chart below, the potential gains in the earlier development
destroy mission. stages are substantial. However, they are accompanied by heightened
Stewart Udall risks. The stages of exploration and early economic studies carry the biggest
potential gains as well as risks. Conversely, the profit potential during the
engineering and construction stages is generally lower. The riskiness of the
exploration stages is well-documented, and research by the World Gold
Council shows that only 10% of gold deposits have sufficient gold to
warrant further development, while less than 0.1% of prospected sites
ultimately reach production.
Problems usually start with The entire Lassonde curve is fraught with risks. At each stage of the
grade, then metallurgy, and then process, the project is vulnerable to failure. For a small exploration
capital costs. company, lacking any cash-generating assets could be a game-ending scenario.
John McConnell Even established companies may suffer a substantial decline in their stock prices.
Geological risks are the primary concern, as drill results may indicate that an
uneconomical deposit lies beneath the surface. This may be due to a variety of
reasons, such as low metal concentrations or deposits situated too deep. Typically,
the deeper the deposit, the higher the grades required to make the mining
operation profitable. Grades of approximately 1 g/t or lower are adequate for an
open-pit mine but are insufficient for a mine several hundred meters below the
surface. Another issue is metallurgy, which can be complex, rendering
the whole extraction process too expensive and inefficient, despite the
deposit’s size and high grades.
Matthew McConaughey as The risk of fraud is particularly prevalent during the discovery phase.
“Kenny Wells”: One of the most well-known examples of this is the Bre-X Minerals scandal. This
You went looking for bauxite, story was even adapted into a 2016 movie titled Gold, featuring Matthew
and you found copper. I went McConaughey In 1995, Bre-X announced a massive gold discovery in Busang,
looking for gold and found a Indonesia, with estimated resources of over 70mn ounces. Some reports even
friend. suggested there could be as much as 200mn ounces. The company’s penny stock
Edgar Ramirez as “Michael share price soared, and it was listed on both the TSX and NASDAQ. Its market
Acosta”: capitalization peaked at over USD 5bn in 1996, attracting the attention of major
That is the single hokiest thing players in the gold mining industry. Freeport-McMoRan emerged as the winner
I've ever heard in my life. and was set to acquire the company. However, when Bre-X’s chief geologist
Gold, 2016 mysteriously fell out of a helicopter and his body was not found, suspicion arose.
Nobody was interested in me A similar incident took place in late 2010, when Supatcha Resources announced a
before I bought the Nets. resource estimate for its project in Ukraine, stating a resource of over 20mn
Mikhail Prokhorov ounces of gold. Shortly thereafter, the company announced a takeover offer by
Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, the former owner of the Brooklyn Nets.
Mining is the art of exploiting The promising drill results were enough to secure financing for reconstruction of
mineral deposits at a profit. An the Serra Pelada mine in 2011. However, problems quickly arose, including a
unprofitable mine is fit only for disappointing resource estimate, dewatering difficulties, and cost overruns.
the sepulcher of a dead mule. Despite numerous delays, construction continued until 2014, when
T.A. Rickard Colossus declared bankruptcy. Shareholders suffered greatly, with their
shares consolidated at a 200:1 ratio and new shares issued to creditors. As a
result, old shareholders retained a mere 1.7% stake in the company,
effectively losing all of their investments.
In 2008, Rubicon identified a valuable deposit in Red Lake, Ontario. With gold
prices at historic highs and a positive preliminary economic assessment (PEA), the
company decided to move directly to construction. Regrettably, after
commencing production at the new mine in 2015, it became apparent
that the mineralization was more intricate than initially anticipated.
Consequently, mining operations were halted, and the company underwent a
restructuring, resulting in devastating losses for the original shareholders.
Good projects that are really Following the restructuring, a new management team was appointed, which
good, even if they’re run by fools, launched a comprehensive exploration campaign, refined the geological model,
will still make investors money. prepared a rigorous preliminary feasibility study (PFS) and feasibility study (FS),
But smart people can make and mined and processed a substantial 35,000-tonne bulk sample. In 2021, Battle
money from mediocre deposits. North Gold, formerly Rubicon, was acquired by Evolution Mining, which
Ross Beatty incorporated the project into its Red Lake operations. Had the prior
management team not rushed the development process and neglected
the crucial studies, the original shareholders would likely have
achieved significantly better outcomes.
Indeed, completing all necessary studies does not guarantee the start of mine
construction, as obtaining permits and financing are also critical prerequisites.
The permitting process has often been described as complicated,
requiring the company to navigate a welter of local and national
authorities as well as various and sundry interest groups. In countries
such as Canada and the USA, the company may also need to address the concerns
of First Nations, who may not always welcome another mining project on their
land.
The mining business is not an In 2009, Barrick Gold began construction of the Pascua Lama mine located on the
easy business because first you border between Chile and Argentina, with an estimated capex of USD 2.8–3bn.
have to find it, being able to This was already a high figure compared to the initial 2000 estimate of
explore, then you have to build it. USD 1.2bn, but the cost continued to rise. By 2011, it had increased to
It’s all very treacherous and then USD 4.7–5bn, followed by an estimate of USD 7.5–8bn in 2012. In 2013, Barrick
you finally get it going. You can Gold acknowledged that the final cost would likely exceed USD 10bn, but the exact
come out, it collapses! If you look figure remains unknown. In late 2013, after spending billions on the
at it from 1,000 miles off it looks project, Barrick was forced to suspend the construction activities of the
like a crazy business. It’s not that Pascua Lama mine. Not only due to the enormous cost overruns but also
easy to make money. because of environmental concerns raised by local communities and the Chilean
Lukas Lundin courts. The project was accused of causing damage to nearby glaciers and
contaminating groundwater. The suspension, initially meant to be temporary,
lasted for seven years, until a court ruling ordered Barrick to transfer the project
from care and maintenance to closure. Currently, Barrick is considering the
possibility of developing only the Lama part of the project, which is located in
Argentina.
Conclusion
Never was anything great Taking a mining project from discovery to production can be a long and
achieved without danger. expensive process, with many risks along the way. While successful
Niccolò Machiavelli investments in mining can yield significant rewards, the likelihood of success is
relatively low, with many companies going out of business before a mine is even
built. Project-killing problems can arise at any time, making diversification
essential when investing in mining companies.
About Us
Ronald-Peter Stöferle, CMT
He studied business administration and finance in the USA and at the Vienna
University of Economics and Business Administration, and also gained work
experience at the trading desk of a bank during his studies. Upon graduation he
joined the research department of Erste Group, where in 2007 he published his
first In Gold We Trust report. Over the years, the In Gold We Trust report has
become one of the benchmark publications on gold, money, and inflation.
Since 2013 he has held the position as reader at scholarium in Vienna, and he also
speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie (the Vienna Stock Exchange Academy). In 2014,
he co-authored the international bestseller Austrian School for Investors, and in
2019 The Zero Interest Trap. He is a member of the board of directors at Tudor
Gold Corp. (TUD), and Goldstorm Metals Corp. (GSTM). Moreover, he is an
advisor to Matterhorn Asset Management, a global leader in wealth preservation
in the form of physical gold stored outside the banking system.
Since 2013 he has held the position as reader at scholarium in Vienna, and he also
speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie (the Vienna Stock Exchange Academy). In 2014,
he co-authored the book Austrian School for Investors.
About Us 15
Incrementum AG
https://www.incrementum.li/en
Contact
Incrementum AG
Im Alten Riet 102
9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein
www.incrementum.li
www.ingoldwetrust.li
Email: ingoldwetrust@incrementum.li
Disclaimer
Company Descriptions
Agnico Eagle
Agnico Eagle is a senior Canadian gold mining company, and third-largest gold
producer in the world, with operating mines located in Canada, Australia, Finland
and Mexico, as well as exploration and development activities in these countries
and the United States.
www.agnicoeagle.com
Asante Gold
Asante Gold has developed its 400,000 oz per year production profile through
organic growth and focused acquisitions. We believe in responsible development
and strive to be Ghana’s foremost gold producer and employer of choice.
www.asantegold.com
Aurion Resources
Aurion is a well-funded, Canadian explorer operating in an emerging major gold
camp in Finland’s Central Lapland. The Company is making new discoveries on its
Flagship Risti and Launi projects, and JVs with B2Gold and Kinross.
www.aurionresources.com
Caledonia Mining
Caledonia Mining is a profitable, dividend-paying gold miner, with a strong growth
profile; since November 2021 has acquired Maligreen, Motapa and Bilboes. Its
vision is to become a Zimbabwe focused multi-asset gold producer.
www.caledoniamining.com
Dakota Gold
Dakota Gold (NYSE American: DC) is a South Dakota-based responsible gold
exploration and development company with a specific focus on revitalizing the
Homestake District of South Dakota.
www.dakotagoldcorp.com
EMX Royalty
EMX has a 20-year track record of smart deals. With more than 300 royalties and
investments, EMX looks forward to a bright future with diversification into gold,
copper, battery metals, strong partners like Franco Nevada, and rapidly increasing
cash flow.
www.emxroyalty.com
Endeavour Mining
As a leading global gold producer and largest in West Africa, Endeavour is
committed to the principles of responsible mining and delivering sustainable value
to all stakeholders. Endeavour is listed on the LSE and TSE under the symbol EDV.
www.endeavourmining.com
Endeavour Silver
Endeavour Silver is a mid-tier precious metals mining that owns two underground,
silver-gold mines in Mexico, and has a compelling pipeline of exploration and
development projects to facilitate its goal to become a senior silver producer.
www.edrsilver.com
Flexgold
Flexgold is the smart way to invest in physical precious metals, as flexible and
simple as never before. With flexgold, SOLIT sets the gold standard for trust,
security and transparency.
www.flexgold.com
Karora Resources
Karora is TSX-listed gold miner (TSX: KRR) with operations in the tier 1
jurisdiction of Western Australia. Karora has a proven management team and is
growing production to 170-195 koz by 2024.
www.karoraresources.com
Minera Alamos
Minera Alamos is a new gold producer going through the ramp up of its Santana
mine and fast tracking permitting for its second flagship mine: Cerro de Oro.
Specializing in low capex builds the Minera model remains insulated from
inflationary pressures.
www.mineraalamos.com
Münze Österreich
Internationally renowned for its precious metal processing, Münze Österreich AG
produces Austria’s circulation coins, Vienna Philharmonic bullion coins in gold,
platinum and silver, and gold bars.
www.muenzeoesterreich.at
philoro EDELMETALLE
philoro is one of the market leaders in Europe in the field of precious metals
trading and your reliable partner for investments in gold and silver, platinum and
palladium.
www.philoro.com
Reyna Gold
Reyna Gold is focused on district-scale exploration on the major gold belts in
Mexico, with a property portfolio of over 57,000 hectares, a world class exploration
team and proven management team.
www.reynagold.com
Sprott
Sprott is a global asset manager providing investors with access to leader in
precious metals and energy transition investments.
www.sprott.com
Tudor Gold
TUDOR GOLD Corp. is an Exploration company in the Golden Triangle region in
B.C., Canada, which is advancing the Treaty Creek project that hosts a mineral
resource of 23.4 Moz AuEQ (Indicated) plus 7.4 Moz AuEQ (Inferred).
www.tudor-gold.com
Victoria Gold
Victoria Gold (“VGCX”) is Leading Yukon’s New Gold Rush. As at 31Dec22 the
Eagle Gold mine Reserve is 2.6 m oz Au (124 m tonnes grading 0.65 g/t), and is
open at depth and along strike. Exploration priority targets include Raven and
Lynx.
www.vgcx.com
Ximen Mining
Ximen Mining (TSX.V XIM) is focused on responsible development, sustainable
mining and exploration of its precious metals properties in southern BC, Canada,
as it advances its Kenville Gold mine.
www.ximenminingcorp.com
2023
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