Topic: Modelling how Rwanda’s

population changes relative to its GDP

Research question: How does Rwanda’s population change relative
to it’s GDP?

Student code: kmg193

Introduction

Background information

Rwanda is a country that hasn’t had the best history so far but stark industrialization has seen to the

fact that this did not remain as the status quo because the nation entered a high time of monetary

development in 2006, and the next year figured out how to enrol 8% financial development, a

record it has supported since transforming it into quite possibly of the quickest developing

economy in Africa. This supported monetary development has prevailed with regards to decreasing

destitution and furthermore lessening fruitfulness rates, with development somewhere in the range

of 2006 and 2011 diminishing the level of the country's populace living in neediness from 57% to

45%. The country's foundation has additionally developed quickly, with associations with power

going from 91,000 in 2006 to 215,000 in 2011. Rwanda needs to accomplish Center Pay Country

status by 2035 and Top level salary Country status by 2050 through its continuous change into

Africa's driving centre for man-made reasoning and computerized innovation. Existing unfamiliar

speculation is amassed in business foundations, mining, tea, espresso, and the travel industry. The

lowest pay permitted by law and government-managed retirement guidelines are in force, and the

four prewar free worker's organizations are back in activity. The biggest association, CESTRAR,

was made as an organ of the public authority yet turned out to be completely free with the political

changes presented by the 1991 constitution. As security in Rwanda improves, the country's early

travel industry area shows extraordinary potential to grow as a wellspring of unfamiliar trade. In

2016, Rwanda was positioned 42nd and second-best country in Africa to carry on with work in the
Mara Establishment The Ashish J Thakkar Worldwide Business venture File report. Nonetheless,

ongoing examination in the UK-based Political theory diary, Survey of African Political Economy,

demonstrates that economic development might be slower than official figures recommend.

Scientists expressed that normal utilization per family firmly followed development in Gross

domestic product per capita from 2000 to 2005, yet separated a while later when normal utilization

per family deteriorated notwithstanding colossal enhancements in Gross domestic product per

capita from 2005 to 2013.

Aim of investigation

A few worldwide specialists have likewise scrutinised the Rwandan government's strategy and

proposed the figures showing colossal developments in the Gross domestic product may be

expanded. This economic growth can be summarised, tracked and presented using a metric called

GDP that combines consumer spending, investment, net exports and government spending. Of

course, the goal of a government is to make sure the quality of life within the country is good or

rather satisfactory and as one of those people, it brings a level of comfort unlike any other when

I’m presented with quantifiable data that the government is doing its job which is why I chose to

model the population relative to GDP. This correlation shall be investigated using three models, the

first one shall be calculus where I will use the rate of change of Rwanda’s population and compare

it with the rate of change of GDP over the years, the range of the years will be 1960 to 2021 this

rate of growth will be simplified and shown using logger pro, the second one will be a scatter

graph. The reason I used two separate models is to minimise errors to as far as I can and also so

that I could apply different factors for example the calculus model will be used, the population and

GDP only without considering any other factors that could affect the GDP or population which

makes it better for economic theorem but isn’t practical as opposed to the scatter graph which

shows the data very accurately and precisely.

 First model(Calculus model)

For this first model, we take population as the function of the GDP where as G is GDP and P

population the function is gonna look like this ��(��) where �� is the population at a

certain point of

�� which is the GDP which would give the derivative of which we acquire the solution for using
����
����

this formula:
���� where ℎ is a smallest difference in the GDP: For the years :
���� =ℎ 0
lim 1961- 1970
→
[��(��+ℎ)−��(��)] ℎ

1970 219,900,006

1969 188,700,037

1968 172,200,018

1967 159,560,018

1966 124,525,703

1965 148,799,9

1964 80129,99

1963 9,994128,

000,000

1962 125,000,000

1961 122,000,016
The difference are as follows:

125,000,000-122,000,016=2,999,984
129,999,994-128,000,000=1,999,994

148,799,980-129,999,994=18,799,986

124,525,703-148,799,980=-24,274,277

159,560,018-124,525,703=35,034,315

172,200,018-159,560,018=12,640,000
 188,700,037-172,200,018=16,500,019

219,900,006-188,700,037=31,199,969

After acquiring all the differences we remove the outliers like negatives since and then we
lim
→
ℎ0

����
use the smallest difference we found which is 1,999,994 but in order to get the most simplified ,
��
��

I rounded it up to 2,000,000 so now that we have our ℎ I can proceed to to find

����/���� and for example I used 1961 to 1962 since there’s no change in 1961,

����/���� couldn’t be obtained for 1961

����
we can only get for 1962 and higher but I only demonstrated the process for 1962 which is as
����

follows:

��(��) = 3, 122, 000 ��ℎ����ℎ ���� ��ℎ��

�������������������� ���� 1962

��(�� + ℎ) = 3, 191, 000 ��ℎ����ℎ ���� ��ℎ��

�������������������� ���� 1963

I used 1963 because it shows how much change most likely occurred within Rwanda regarding

population and GDP without considering outliers

���� ����

���� =ℎ 0 ���� =ℎ 0
lim lim
→ →
[��(��+ℎ)−��(��)] ℎ
����
[��(��+2,000,000)−��(��)] 2,000,000
����

���� =ℎ 0
[(3,191,000−3,122,000)] 2,000,000
lim
→

���� = 0. 0345
 So this calculation is repeated for all the years from 1962 to 2021

Which gives us:

0.0615 290,700,000 0.0635 308,500,000 0.065 571,900,000

year Population 0.066 637,800,000 0.0675 746,700,000 0.0695 905,700,000
0.076 1,109,000,000 0.087
1961 3,047,000

1962 3,122,000 1980 5,248,000

1963 3,191,000 1981 5,442,000

1964 3,264,000 1982 5,653,000

1965 3,349,000 1983 5,859,000

1966 3,444,000 1984 6,057,000

1967 3,549,000 1985 6,267,000

1968 3,662,000 1986 6,498,000

1969 3,778,000 1987 6,736,000

1970 3,896,000 1988 6,954,000

1971 4,015,000 1989 7,142,000

1972 4,136,000 1990 7,320,000

1973 4,259,000 1991 7,486,000

1974 4,386,000 1992 7,657,000

1975 4,516,000 1993 7,905,000

1976 4,648,000 1994 6,733,000

1977 4,783,000 1995 5,687,000
1978 4,922,000
1996 6,716,000
1979 5,074,000 1997 7,667,000
1998 7,915,000

GDP dP/dG 1999 8,010,000

122,000,000 - 125,000,000 0.0345 128,000,000 0.0365 2000 8,110,000
130,000,000 0.0425 148,800,000 0.0475 124,500,000
2001 8,224,000
0.0525 159,600,000 0.0565 172,200,000 0.058 188,700,000
2002 8,372,000
0.059 219,900,000 0.0595 223,000,000 0.0605 246,500,000
 6,122,000,000 0.135 6,881,000,000 0.13 7,651,000,000
2003 8,568,000
0.13
2004 8,792,000
2013 11,100,000
2005 9,026,000
2014 11,370,000
2006 9,270,000
2015 11,640,000
2007 9,523,000
2016 11,930,000
2008 9,782,000
2017 12,230,000
2009 10,040,000
2018 12,530,000
2010 10,310,000
2019 12,840,000
2011 10,580,000

2012 10,840,000 2020 13,150,000

2021 13,460,000
1,255,000,000 0.097 1,407,000,000 0.1055 1,407,000,000
0.103 1,480,000,000 0.099 1,587,000,000 0.105
1,716,000,000 0.1155 1,945,000,000 0.119 2,157,000,000
7,816,000,000 0.135 8,235,000,000 0.135 8,539,000,000
0.109 2,395,000,000 0.094 2,405,000,000 0.089
0.145 8,691,000,000 0.15 9,253,000,000 0.15
2,550,000,000 0.083 1,912,000,000 0.0855 2,029,000,000
9,642,000,000 0.155
0.124 1,972,000,000 -0.586 753,600,000 -0.523
10,360,000,00
1,294,000,000 0.5145 1,382,000,000 0.4755 1,852,000,000
0 0.155
0.124 1,989,000,000 0.0475 2,156,000,000 0.05
10,180,000,00
2,068,000,000 0.057 1,966,000,000 0.074 1,965,000,000 0 0.155
0.098 2,137,000,000 0.112 2,357,000,0000.117 11,070,000,00
2,932,000,000 0.112 3,318,000,000 0.1265 4,068,000,000 0 -
0.13 5,177,000,000 0.129 5,672,000,000 0.135
(Figure 1.1 vs year) ����
����

The correlation between gdp and population can be shown by this graph:
This graph was obtained after removing the outliers, this was done using this formula:

[��1 − (1. 5 * ������)] ≼ �� that means �� is a lower outlier

[(1. 5 * ������) + ��3] ≽ �� that means �� is an upper outlier

But first, we have to find the IQR so we have to first order the ����/���� values

from lowest to highest like this:

-0.586, -0.523, 0.0345, 0.0365, 0.0425, 0.0475, 0.05, 0.0525, 0.0565, 0.057, 0.058, 0.059, 0.0595,

0.0605, 0.065, 0.066, 0.0675, 0.0695, 0.074, 0.076, 0.083, 0.0855, 0.087, 0.089, 0.094, 0.097,

0.099, 0.103, 0.105, 0.1055, 0.112, 0.112, 0.1155, 0.117, 0.119, 0.124, 0.124, 0.129, 0.13, 0.13,

0.13, 0.135, 0.135, 0.135, 0.145, 0.15, 0.15, 0.155, 0.155, 0.155, 0.5145, 0.4755, 0.615, 0.635.
 And in order to find the ������ we have to find ��1 which is the 25th percentile of the

data set and we have 50 pieces of data in this set so the 25th percentile is in the 12.5th position

which isn’t a whole number so we take the average between the 12th and 13th number which is

��1 = (0. 059 + 0. 0595) / 2 = 0. 05925

We also have to find ��3 which 75th percentile

75/100 * 50 = 37. 5

Since it isn’t a whole number we use the average between the 37th and 38th number

��3 = (0. 135 + 0. 135) / 2 = 0. 135

������ =��3 − ��1 = 0. 135 − 0. 05925 = 0. 07575

So the outliers are any numbers in:

��1 ≼ [0. 05925 − (1. 5 * 0. 07575) =− 0. 055]

��2 ≽ [0. 135 + (1. 5 * 0. 07575) = 0. 249]

And these numbers are: -0.586,-0.523 and 0.5145, 0.4755.

This model was also used to find the maximum relative GDP
This means that the maximum value of the derivative occurs when the population of Rwanda

is constant with respect to changes in its GDP. We can estimate this value by looking at the

data in the table and finding the population at which the derivative is closest to zero.And then

we find the most drastic change which should be close to that due to how volatile Rwanda’s

economy was at its lowest population and the highest GDP in relation to population was

achieved somewhere in between 1994 and 1995.

����

���� = 0

lim → [��(��+ℎ)−��(��)]
ℎ0
ℎ= 0

[��(��+ℎ)−��(��)]

ℎ= 0 ���� ℎ ⇒ 0
 ��(�� + ℎ) − ��(��) = 0 ���� ℎ ⇒ 0

��(�� + ℎ) = ��(��) ���� ℎ ⇒ 0

�������� = ��1994 + (0 −����

���� ����
1994) × (��1995 − ��1994) / (
���� ����
1995−
����
1994)

�������� = 753, 600, 000 + (0 − − 0. 523) × (1, 294, 000, 000 − 753, 600, 000) / (0. 5145 − − 0. 523)

�������� = 753, 600, 000 + (0 − − 0. 523) × (1, 294, 000, 000 − 753, 600, 000) / (0. 5145 − − 0. 523)

�������� = 922, 839, 014. 9 ���� ��������������

Second model(Scatter plots)

(Figure 1.2)

This model is not as visually easy to interpret as the last because it converges too many data points

onto one graph but we can expand instead of converging by just showing one factor at a time using

a graph for each factor. For example the case below which only shows GDP but doesn’t show

population in order to inspire coherence and be clear in the graph making process, the only struggle

presented is to prove correlation for these two graphs. Finding correlation we use this formula:

�� =Σ(����−��)(����−��)
2 2
Σ(����−��) Σ(����−��)

Graph 1 has a correlation of 0.8677 which means that the GDP of Rwanda is likely going to keep

this trend displayed within the graph.

(Figure 1.3)
Graph 2 has a correlation of 0.9813 which means that the population is most likely going to keep

this trend displayed within the graph.

(figure 1.4)

because the more r tends to1 the more correlated the data is and it is important for this data to

correlate because in order for the model to be applicable it has to have the ability to be used to

predict the pattern future data would most likely follow.

Evaluation

A limitation I encountered was that the data I was provided was skewed due to historical context

within the country being investigated being volatile and changing alot throughout the years from

the colonization to the genocide but we found that there was a positive correlation between GDP

and population and I also found that GDP has a significant influence on population growth and

decline. The methods used to come to this conclusion were also scrutinised and I found that the
calculus model simplifies the data while making the correlation plain but this simplification also

leads to a lower accuracy and the scatter graphs are complicated and hard to navigate but is more
accurate but nonetheless presents the data unclearly so from this I derived that the calculus model is

the most optimal model.

Conclusion

The aim of my investigation was to use the skills, I gained while studying calculus and graphing in

class to investigate the relationship between Rwanda’s GDP and Rwanda’s population which could

be used to assess whether Rwanda was displaying signs of growth within its economy while also

keeping a healthy growth rate in standard of living. I was also scrutinising the efficacy of the

models being used, this aim was certainly fulfilled throughout the investigation because I found that

the calculus model was certainly the most efficient and happened to display the growth and decline

of the population relative to its GDP and the scatter plot model displayed the correlation rather

crudely because it could not adjust for the fluctuation of the immensely large GDP values while

also displaying the population which happens to be lesser so the graphs had to be split inorder to

fulfill the aim of the investigation, using these models we summised that population showed a

positive change in relation to the GDP which was also growing steadily at each and every point.

Bibliography

Lopez, H., & Wodon, Q. (2005). The economic impact of armed conflict in Rwanda. Journal of African

economies, 14(4), 586-602.

World development indicators (no date) WDI - Home. Available at:

https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/ (Accessed: April 18, 2023).