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Estimation of Daily Global Solar Irradiation at Oweri, IMO State (NIGERIA) from
Hours of Sunshine, Minimum and Maximum Temperature and Relative
Humidity
Article in International Journal Of Applied Research and Studies · November 2018
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International Journal of Applied Research & Studies ISSN 2278 – 9480
Research Article
Estimation of Daily Global Solar Irradiation at Oweri, IMO State (NIGERIA) from Hours of
Sunshine, Minimum and Maximum Temperature and Relative Humidity
Authors
1
Ekwe M.C*, 2 Joshua J.K, 3 Igwe J.E
Address For correspondence:

1
Department of Weather Forecasting Services (WFS), Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Nnamdi
Azikiwe International Airport, FCT-Abuja, Nigeria.
2
Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria
3
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Caritas University, Amorji-Nike, Enugu, Nigeria
Abstract:
For applications in renewable energy, the solar radiation data and their respective components in a region must be
known for the design of a system. In locations where solar radiation data is not available, this parameter can be
determined accurately by performing a reasonable empirical correlation. In the study, the models of global solar
radiation on the horizontal surface in the literature are investigated, and a new empirical model 5 for Owerri based
on hours of sunshine, minimum and maximum temperature, and relative humidity data for Owerri, Imo State
(Nigeria) is developed. The performance parameters of the model are: Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.240,
Mean Bias Error, MBE = -0.0192, Mean Percentage Error, MPE = -0.106, correlation coefficient, R =0.995 and
coefficient of determination, R2= 0.99. The results obtained indicate that the correlation developed in the study
predict the global solar irradiation reasonably well for Owerri, Nigeria for the future projections. The model could
be employed in estimating global solar radiation of location that has the same geographical location information
as Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria).
Key words: Angstrom equation, global solar radiation, sunshine hours, correlation coefficients.
ekwemichael2005@yahoo.com * Corresponding Author Email-Id
iJARS/ Vol. II/ Issue 3/Mar, 2013/365 1

*Authors Copy; Restricted to Personal Use Only any manipulation will be against copy Right Policy @ iJARS
1. Introduction
In the recent scenario of increasing depletion of various energy sources, solar energy proves to be an excellent
alternative renewable energy source. For design of a solar energy system such as photovoltaic conversion system
requires precise knowledge of the availability of global solar radiation and its components at the location of our
interest. A thorough knowledge of the behavior of monthly mean daily values of global solar radiation reaching
the horizontal earth‟s surface, both spatially and temporally, is of utmost importance in the design and
development of solar conversion devices. The design of solar systems for producing electricity and heat is region
sensitive. Solar energy dependent devices include solar cookers, solar water pumps, solar fencing for wildlife
protection, solar torch, solar drying of agricultural products, solar heating, solar electric generation, and so on. A
universal study of the global solar radiation distribution in the world requires the knowledge of the radiation data
in several countries and for the sole aim of worldwide marketing, the manufacturers and designers of solar
equipment need to know the mean global solar radiation availability in different and specific locations (Ibrahim,
1985).
For locations where solar radiation measurements are not performed maybe due to the cost of equipment or lack
of trained personnel to take measurements, empirical correlation models become inevitable. The resultant
correlation may, however be used for regions of similar meteorological conditions. Incoming incident solar
radiation from the sun passing through the atmosphere to the horizontal earth's surface is known to be depleted by
reflection, scattering and absorption by atmospheric constituents like aerosols, water vapour and clouds. Most of
the reflection in our atmosphere occurs in clouds when light is intercepted by particles of liquid and frozen water
and this reduces the density of solar radiation energy reaching the ground surface (Excell, 2000). The first
empirical correlation equation which uses the concept of employing sunshine hours for estimating global solar
radiation was proposed by Angstrom (1924). The Angstrom-type correlation equation was later modified by
Prescott (1940 and Page (1961). Many researchers have used this model to develop empirical correlations models
(Togrul, 1999; Togrul et al., 2000; Akinnoglu and Ecevit, 1990; Moriarty, 1991; Gopinathan, 1992; Sahin and
Sen, 1998; Paulescu et al., 2006; Muneer and Younes, 2006; Menges et al., 2006; Skeiker, 2006; Rietweld, 1978;
Benson et al., 1984; Jin et al., 2005). Some researchers have found that the regression coefficients in the
correlation models are site dependent and have suggested regression coefficients with respect to some
geographical factors such as latitude, elevations, and so on (Paulescu et al., 2006; Muneer and Younes, 2006;
Menges et al., 2006; Skeiker, 2006; Rietweld, 1978; Benson et al., 1984; Jin et al., 2005). Correlation equations
were developed for 48 locations around the world and the performance of their correlation with other models was
compared (Bahel et al, 1987). Ododo et al, 1996 correlated global solar radiation with cloud cover and relative
sunshine duration for three (3) Nigerian sites. A new set of constants for an Angstrom-type correlation was
obtained to estimate global solar radiation at Lucknow, India (Singh et al, 1996). An Angstrom-type equation
correlating monthly mean daily beam radiation with sunshine duration was developed for two (2) locations in
Australia (Suehrcke, 1996). Almorox and Hontoria (2004) developed correlation equations of different forms
(linear, quadratic, third degree, logarithmic and exponential function) correlating global solar radiation and
sunshine duration for sixteen locations in Spain. In addition, other empirical correlations have been developed to
model global solar radiation not only using sunshine duration, extraterrestrial radiation and geographical
parameters but also using some other parameters such as relative humidity, ambient temperature, soil temperature,
number of rainy days, precipitation, cloudiness and evaporation (Yorukoglu and Celik, 2006; El-Metwally, 2005;
Elagib and Mansell, 2000; Abdul-Aziz et al., 1993; Chow et al., 2006; Rehman and Halawani, 1997; Aksakal and
Rehman, 1999; Lin and Gao, 1999; Togrul and Onat, 1999).

However, global radiation observations are sparse as there are relatively very few locations, especially in the
developing countries such as Nigeria where it is being continuously and accurately measured. Consequently, there
is therefore the necessity to increase the global solar radiation database both in time and space
(Okogbue&Adedokun, 2003). This would involve estimating global solar radiation both at stations where it is
being measured and at stations where it was not measured to extend the density of historic global solar radiation
data. Statistical model equations resulting from correlating global solar irradiance with other more readily
measured meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, sunshine duration, minimum and maximum
temperature and cloud cover data provide a practical way of estimating global solar radiation. This method of
estimating global solar radiation at stations with long time climatic data is interesting because it preserves the
integrity of the observed time series and maintains the observed seasonal changes (Okogbue&Adedokun, 2003).
For example, global incident solar radiation has been shown to correlate highly with surface daily climatic
variables which includes bright sunshine (Halouani et al., 1993; Boisvert et al., 1990; Soler, 1990), air
temperature range (Bastow and Campbell, 1984; De Jong and Stewart, 1993), atmospheric water vapour content
(specific humidity) (Garg and Garg, 1982 and Hussain, 1984), fraction of cloud (Norris, 1968; Black, 1956; Davis
and Hay, 1980).
A reasonable number of correlations involving global solar radiation and other meteorological parameters
such as minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity and sunhine hours for different locations in
Nigeria have been proposed by different researchers. For instance, Ezeilo (1982) presented some regression
equations for Ibadan and Nsukka. These were solely based on calibration of Gunn-Bellani readings with
pyranometer readings in Ibadan. Bamiro (1983) presented some empirical correlations for predicting global
insolation. He concluded that different empirical relations showed good agreement between the observed solar
radiation data and calculated values using various climatic data. He therefore, presented the best relation
emanating from his work. Umoru and Arinze (1982) anticipated an annual mean solar radiation of about 34MJm-
2
day-1in Maiduguri and 18MJm-2day-1 in Port-Harcourt using the general equation: H/Ho = 0.2 + 0.74 S/So. Arinze
(1982) calculated expected solar radiation for some Northern cities in Nigeria. Due to differences in the latitude
and geographical locations of those cities, it showed that neither the constant 0.2 nor the slope 0.74 is likely to be
the same for all the cities. Folayan (1988) estimated the global solar radiation bound for some cities in Nigeria
and found out that the range of clearness index, KT for each city is of the order 20%. Sambo (1986) developed a
mathematical model for calculating global diffuse radiation for Kano. In his work, he estimated the values for the
coefficient of Angstrom- type relation as a=0.25, b=0.49, c=1.275 and d=1.500. In later development, the
coefficients changed to a=0.27, b=0.49, c=1.377 and d=1.47 which tend to show the sensitivity of the coefficients
to the experimental samples used. Okogbue, et al., (1998) collected series of hourly global and diffuse radiation
data within a 24-month period (1992-1994) at Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Kuye and Jagtap (1992) analysed solar radiation
for Port-Harcourt, Nigeria between 1977-1989. From their work, they found that global insolation vary with the
climate change of the year with the greatest range of variation in the wet season especially in August. It showed
that clearness index, KT values pointed out that the area was cloudy and almost without clear skies. Also on their
work on improving the estimation of global solar radiation over Ondo in South Western Nigeria, Okogbue and
Adedokun (2003) indicated that the correlation equations perform better when long-term monthly average values
of meteorological parameters were used. According to them, the correlation equation with the least root mean
square error (RMSE) obtained was: H/Ho = 0.1612 +0.4138S/So + 0.0265 (with RMSE OF 0.004), while that with
minimum mean bias error is that proposed earlier by Okogbue and Adedokun (2002a) using the same dataset for
the station, which was: H/Ho = 0.1627 + 0.7272S/So (with MBE of -0.003).Other studies were also conducted on
the measurement and estimation of solar radiation from other meteorological variables which include Awachie

and Okeke (1982), Ideriah (1981, 1983 and 1985),Ezekwe and Ezeilo (1981), Okogbue et al (2002c), Okogbue
and Adedokun (2002b) and Bamiro (1983), Ezekwe and Ezeilo (1981) presented empirical correlations for
Nsukka a town located in the southeastern part of Nigeria (Lat 60 40|N, Long 70 20| E). On the other hand, Bamiro
(1983), presented some empirical correlations for predicting global insolation for Ibadan in the southwestern part
of Nigeria. This work aims at developing empirical correlation models which correlate the monthly average daily
horizontal global solar radiation and hours of sunshine, the daily atmospheric temperature and relative humidity
data for Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria).
2. Methodology
Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria) is situated on latitude 05.29‟ N of the Equator, longitude 07.00‟ E of the Green witch
Meridian and elevation of about 91.0 metres above sea level.
The global solar radiation, daily maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity,and sunshine duration
data presented in this paper were supplied by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Oshodi-Lagos,
Nigeria for the period of twenty-nine years (1980-2009).
Various climate parameters have been used in developing empirical relations for predicting the monthly average
global solar radiation (Massaquoi, 1988). Among the existing correlations, the following relation is the widely
accepted modified form of the Angstrom-Prescott type regression equation, relating the monthly average daily
global radiation to the average daily sunshine hours (Angstrom, 1924 and Prescott, 1940):
𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) (1)
Regression equation (1) has been found to accurately predict global solar radiation in several locations (Rietveld,
1978). Here, H is the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (MJm-2day-1), Ho is the
monthly average daily extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface (MJm-2day-1), S is the monthly average
daily number of hours of bright sunshine, So is the monthly average daily maximum number of hours of possible
sunshine (or day length) and „a‟ and „b‟ are regression constants to be estimated.
Eight (8) other regression relations also employed in this paper are given as:
𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄 𝑻𝒎𝒂𝒙 − 𝑻𝒎𝒊𝒏 (2)

𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄(𝑻𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏) (3)
𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄(𝑹) (4)
𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄(𝑹. 𝑻𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏) (5)
𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄(𝑻 𝒎𝒊𝒏/𝑻𝒎𝒂𝒙) (6)
𝐇/𝐇𝐨 = 𝐚 + 𝐛(𝐒/𝐒𝐨) + 𝐜(𝐑. 𝐓𝐦𝐢𝐧/𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱) (7)
𝐇/𝐇𝐨 = 𝐚 + 𝐛(𝐒/𝐒𝐨) + 𝐜(𝐒/𝐒𝐨. 𝐓𝐦𝐢𝐧/𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱) + 𝐝(𝐑. 𝐓𝐦𝐢𝐧/𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱) (8)
𝐇/𝐇𝐨 = 𝐚 + 𝐛(𝐒/𝐒𝐨) + 𝐜(𝐒/𝐒𝐨. 𝐓𝐦𝐢𝐧/𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱) (9)
The above regression equations have been employed by some authors in estimating global solar radiation. Bristow
and Campbell (1984) used similar equations as equation 2 for some localities in Chile, Swartman and Ogunlade
(1967) used equation 4 for Kano in Northern Nigeria and Garg and Garg (1982) and Hussain (1984) who used
the specific humidity instead of relative humidity in equation 4. Most of the models (except equation 9) were used
for estimating global irradiance over Ondo, Nigeria by Okogbue and Adedokun (2003).

The extraterrestrial solar radiation on a horizontal surface is the radiation arriving outside the earth‟s atmosphere
or on top of the atmosphere and was calculated from the following equation (Iqbal, 1983):
𝑯𝒐 = 𝟐𝟒 𝝅 𝑰𝑺𝑪 𝑬𝒐 𝑪𝒐𝒔∅𝑪𝒐𝒔𝜹(𝑺𝒊𝒏𝝎𝒔 − (𝝅 𝟏𝟖𝟎)𝝎𝒔 𝑪𝒐𝒔𝝎𝒔 ) (a)
𝟐
𝑰𝑺𝑪 = 𝟏𝟑𝟔𝟕𝒘𝒎¯ = 𝟒𝟗𝟐𝟏. 𝟐𝒌𝑱𝒎²𝒉¯¹called the solar constant, ∅is the latitude of the location, and the
solar declination (δ), which is the angle between a line joining the centers of the sun and the earth to the equatorial
plane and the mean sunrise hour angle (can be calculated by the following equations b and c, respectively (Duffie
and Beckman, 1991):
𝜹 = 𝟐𝟑. 𝟒𝟓𝑺𝒊𝒏 𝟑𝟔𝟎 𝟑𝟔𝟓 (𝒅𝒏 + 𝟐𝟖𝟒) (b)

Where dn is the Julian day number starting from 1 January and ωs is the sunset hour angle given as:
st
𝝎𝒔 = 𝒂𝒓𝒄𝑪𝒐𝒔(−𝑻𝒂𝒏∅𝑻𝒂𝒏𝜹) (c)
Eccentricity correction factor of the earth‟s orbit is expressed as (Iqbal, 1983):

𝑬𝟎 = 𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟑𝑪𝒐𝒔 𝟐𝝅𝒅𝒏 𝟑𝟔𝟓 (d)
Where,
dn= the Julian day number of the year.
The theoretical day length (So), which is the maximum number of hours of insolation received in a day, can be
expressed as (Iqbal, 1983):
𝟐
𝑺𝟎 = 𝟏𝟓 𝝎𝒔 (e)
In this paper, Ho and So were computed for each month by using equations (c) and (e) respectively. The
regression constants a, b and c in equations (1) and (2) have been calculated from values of H/Ho, S/So, The
values of the monthly average daily global radiation and the average number of hours of sunshine were obtained
from daily measurements covering a period of twenty-nine (29) years.
To compute estimated values of the monthly average daily global radiation, , the values of a, b and c were used in
equations (1) to (9) respectively.
The accuracy of the estimated values was tested by calculating the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error
(RMSE), and the mean percentage error (MPE). These are defined by Iqbal (1983) as:
𝑰 𝒏
𝑹𝑴𝑺𝑬 = 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 𝑯𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 − 𝑯𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒅 ² (i)
𝟏 𝒏
𝑴𝑩𝑬 = 𝒏 𝒊=𝟏 𝑯𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 − 𝑯𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒅 (ii)
𝒏
𝑴𝑷𝑬 = 𝒊=𝟏 (𝑯𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 − 𝑯𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒅 )/𝑯𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒅 × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 /𝒏 (iii)
Where,
H estimated represents the calculated value.
H measured represents the measured value.
n = the total number of observations

The RMSE allows a term-by-term comparison of the actual deviation between the calculated and the measured
values and therefore provides information on the short-term performance of studied models. The RMSE is always
positive: however a zero value is ideal. On the other hand, the test on MBE provides information on the long-term
performance of models. A positive MBE value gives the average amount of overestimation in the calculated
values and vice versa. In general, a low MBE is desirable (Iqbal 1983, Halouani et al, 1993). The correlation
coefficient (R), is a test of the linear relationship between the calculated and measured values. The MPE test gives
long-term performance of the examined regression equations. A positive MPE value provides the average amount
of overestimation in the calculated values, while negative values give underestimation. A low value of MPE is
desirable (Akpabio, et al., 2002).
These error analyses were performed for each of the nine correlation equations in relation to the measured and
estimated monthly mean values of the global radiation. They have also been performed for the equations in
relation to the measured and estimated monthly mean values of the global radiation for the seasons (wet and dry).
Consequently, the values of correlation coefficient (R) show whether global solar radiation is best estimated in the
dry or wet season over the location under study.
3. Results and Discussion
Table 1: Meteorological data and global solar radiation for Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria) (1980– 2009)
Month S (hours) 𝑺𝟎 (hours) H measured Ho

(MJm-2day-1) (MJm-2day-1)
Jan 5.28 11.69 0.4565 18.51 34.01 0.5444
Feb 5.48 11.80 0.4682 20.14 35.90 0.5611
Mar 5.17 11.94 0.4461 19.36 37.42 0.5174
Apr 5.34 12.09 0.4554 19.12 37.49 0.5098
May 5.52 12.22 0.4515 18.51 36.40 0.5085
Jun 4.39 12.28 0.3675 16.13 35.52 0.4539
Jul 3.11 12.25 0.2522 13.57 35.80 0.3791
Aug 3.24 12.14 0.2193 13.63 36.81 0.3702
Sep 3.33 12.00 0.2918 14.99 37.21 0.4029
Oct 4.22 11.84 0.3831 17.37 36.16 0.4803
Nov 5.75 11.72 0.4990 19.19 34.30 0.5593
Dec 5.78 11.66 0.5046 19.16 33.25 0.5761

Table 2: The values of MBE, RMSE, MPE and Correlation coefficients R (1980 – 2009)
Month H Model Model Model3 Model Mode Model Model Model Model
1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 18.51 18.03 18.62 18.76 18.01 18.83 18.75 18.75 18.72 18.67
2 20.14 19.34 19.88 19.86 19.44 19.73 19.71 19.83 19.75 19.67
3 19.36 19.55 19.81 19.72 19.65 19.52 19.64 19.72 19.64 19.58
4 19.12 19.85 19.57 19.55 19.89 19.39 19.45 19.52 19.46 19.43
5 18.51 19.16 18.65 18.63 19.13 18.60 18.64 18.61 18.61 18.63
6 16.13 16.52 16.27 16.19 16.50 16.16 16.31 16.20 16.22 16.23
7 13.57 13.64 13.61 13.70 13.62 13.72 13.62 13.66 13.69 13.68
8 13.63 13.14 13.34 13.38 13.16 13.36 13.33 13.36 13.42 13.43
9 14.99 15.25 15.23 15.16 15.25 15.12 15.25 15.17 15.19 15.19
10 17.37 17.23 16.98 16.96 17.18 16.99 17.06 16.98 16.96 16.95
11 19.19 19.25 18.79 18.93 19.20 18.96 18.81 18.88 18.90 18.91
12 19.16 18.80 18.98 18.94 18.72 19.07 19.15 18.96 19.20 19.31
MBE 0.00772 0.00538 0.00747 0.00876 -0.0192 0.00262 -0.0030 0.00831 0.00114
RMSE 0.456 0.289 0.267 0.453 0.240 0.272 0.265 0.251 0.255
MPE 0.0440 0.0163 0.0365 0.0416 -0.106 0.0143 -0.0267 0.0538 0.0181
R 0.9831 0.9933 0.9943 0.9833 0.9953 0.9940 0.9943 0.9949 0.9947
Figure 1: Annual pattern of the monthly average clearness index (H/Ho) and relative sunshine (S/So) (1980-2009)
for Owerri.
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
H/Ho and S/So H/Ho
0.3 S/So
0.2
0.1
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
months of the year

Figure 2: The relationship between the monthly average values of H/Ho versus S/So for Owerri (1980-2009).
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
H/Ho 0.3
H/Ho
0.2 Linear (H/Ho)
0.1
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
S/So
Figure 3: Seasonal estimate of global solar radiation for Owerri (1980-2010).
25
20
15
Seasonal Hcal
(MJ/m²/day)
10 H cal
0
months of the year

Figure 4: Comparisons of measured global solar radiation and estimated solar radiation using the models for
Owerri (1980-2009).
25 H mes.
H est1
20
H est2
15 H est3
Hmeas and Hest H est4

10 H est5
H est6
5
H est7
H est8
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC H est9
Months of the year
Figure 5: Average monthly variation of sunshine hours in Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria) (1980-2009).
5
Bright sunshine hours
3 AVG S
0
months of the year

Table 4: Regression constants, MBE, RMSE AND MPE for Owerri (1980-2009) during dry season
(November-March)
Model a b c d R MBE RMSE MPE

1 0.2024 0.7354 0.8567 0.004457 0.3681 0.03588
2 0.0145 0.8253 0.0140 0.9693 -0.001299 0.1727 0.004093
3 0.2733 0.8308 -0.002060 0.9751 -0.0807 0.1763 -0.3992
4 0.0838 0.7946 0.003167 0.8615 0.009257 0.3612 0.0520
5 0.2937 0.7506 -6.0923E-05 0.9522 0.0500 0.2215 0.2860
6 0.5116 0.7342 -0.4446 0.9427 0.0001094 0.2372 0.0235
7 0.2580 0.8043 -0.002239 0.9696 0.0516 0.1796 0.2875
8 0.3255 -0.2337 1.6761 -0.005476 0.9905 -0.0328 0.1011 -0.1583
9 0.2094 1.3544 -0.9120 0.9347 -0.001198 0.2534 0.0163
Table 5: Regression constants, MBE, RMSE AND MPE for Owerri (1980-2009) during wet season
(April- November)
Model a b c d R MBE RMSE MPE

1 0.2256 0.6303 0.9927 0.0003925 0.2420 0.0221
2 0.2006 0.5642 0.006320 0.9929 0.001000 0.2395 0.0225
3 0.3303 0.5664 -0.001010 0.9930 0.001043 0.2364 0.0231
4 0.3845 0.6968 -0.006727 0.9934 -0.0003509 0.2294 0.0196
5 0.5822 0.5013 -0.0001537 0.9953 0.001122 0.1954 0.0184
6 1.2624 0.3549 -1.2462 0.9950 0.001461 0.2012 0.0128
7 0.3935 0.5000 -0.002159 0.9936 0.001961 0.2280 0.0253
8 0.1179 3.5174 -4.0038 0.002613 0.9941 0.001463 0.2171 0.0208
9 0.2750 2.0423 -2.0712 0.9940 0.001668 0.2204 0.0217
In this study, constants have been computed using regression analysis for monthly average values of dependent
and independent variables, for Owerri, Imo State (Nigeria).
Some of the available models in the literature are tested to estimate the monthly average daily global solar
radiation on horizontal surface with hours of bright sunshine for Owerri, Nigeria. Also, a modified Angstrom-type
equation is developed (Model 5):
𝑯 𝑯𝑶 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟗𝟐𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟕𝟑(𝑺 𝑺𝒐 ) − 𝟕𝐞𝐱𝐩⁡

(−𝟓) 𝑹. 𝑻𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏 (10)
The values of MBE, RMSE, MPE and R for Models (1 to 9) are shown in Table 2. The closer the MBE, RMSE
and MPE are to zero, the better the estimator is. Positive values represent overestimation and negative values
represent underestimation. Also, the closer the values of R are to unity, the better the model is.
Comparing the results, it can be seen that some models give good results. Model 5 has the smallest errors than the
other models. According to results, the Models 5 and 7 are proposed for the estimation of global solar radiation
for Owerri, Nigeria.

Table 2 shows that in the overall average estimated global solar radiation using Models (1 to 9) (1980 – 2009),
there are two maxima (major and minor) and a minima. The major maximum occurred between February-April
during the dry season and the minor maximum occurred between November-January and May. In the rainy season
(May-October), we have the major minima in the months of July-August.
The annual pattern of the monthly average daily clearness index (/) relative sunshine (/ is shown in Figure 1 with
noticeable least values during the wet season specifically around July- August.The linear relationship between the
monthly averages values of H/ versus S/ is shown in Figure 2.
The general pattern of seasonal estimate of global solar radiation is shown in Figure 3 with least irradiation
recorded during wet season, as the rain bearing clouds pervade the sky and the high irradiation recorded during
the dry season. The comparisons of the values of the monthly average global solar radiation measured and
estimated from Models (1 to 9) are shown in Figure 4.Figure 5 shows that there is frequently a change in sunshine
hours because of changing local weather condition. The June, July and August lie in summer season. This
summer season is monsoon season. On the other hand, the sunshine hour is the lowest in August due to the high
frequency rainfall in monsoon season.
Tables 4 and 5 show the values of R for both the dry and wet seasons respectively. The values of R for Models (1
to 9) are of greater values (almost equal to unity) during the wet season than what were recorded during the dry
season. This gives credence that the developed Angstrom-type equation can best estimate global solar irradiation
for Owerri, Nigeria in wet season.
4. Conclusion
From the monthly average values of sunshine hour, relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature, nine
models were used in the estimation of global solar radiation in Owerri station in Nigeria. The models used the
Angstrom-Prescott linear correlation models. A comparison of the predictive efficiency of these models was
carried out using the Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
and the Pearson‟s Correlation Coefficient as performance indicators. For Owerri station, all the nine models gave
good estimation of global solar radiation but equation (5) gave the values that are closest to the observed values.
All the models gave correlation coefficients above 0.980 with the highest of 0.9953 recorded for model 5. Model
5 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9953 gave the best MBE of -0.0192 ,best RMSE of 0.240 and best MPE of -
0.106%. As a result, Model 5 developed in the study which is found to be the best overall according to MBE,
RMSE and MPE, have the best performance based on the measured data at the station in Owerri, Nigeria.
Negative MBE and MPE values were obtained for models 5 and 7 respectively, which showed that all the models
(except models 5 and 7) overestimated recorded solar radiation data.
It was observed that the models can best be used in the estimation of global solar radiation during the wet season
compared to the dry season Owerri station, Nigeria. This is evident as the values of correlation coefficients in wet
season are higher when compared to dry season. The predictive models developed for a region can be improved
by considering long-time data for developing the models. Also, the correlation equations developed here will
enable the solar energy researchers to use the estimated data with confidence because of its fine agreement with
the observed data. Lastly, this correlation can be used for other locations with similar climatic conditions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors wish to express their gratitude to the entire staff and management of the Nigerian Meteorological
Agency (NIMET), Oshodi-Lagos, Nigeria for their kindness in supplying the relevant data of hours of sunshine,
minimum and maximum temperature and relative humidity data for this paper
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Article in International Journal Of Applied Research and Studies · November 2018

Michael Chibuike Ekwe Joshua, Jonah Kunda

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𝑯 𝑯𝟎 = 𝒂 + 𝒃(𝑺 𝑺𝟎 ) + 𝒄 𝑻𝒎𝒂𝒙 − 𝑻𝒎𝒊𝒏 (2)

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𝑯𝒐 = 𝟐𝟒 𝝅 𝑰𝑺𝑪 𝑬𝒐 𝑪𝒐𝒔∅𝑪𝒐𝒔𝜹(𝑺𝒊𝒏𝝎𝒔 − (𝝅 𝟏𝟖𝟎)𝝎𝒔 𝑪𝒐𝒔𝝎𝒔 ) (a)

𝜹 = 𝟐𝟑. 𝟒𝟓𝑺𝒊𝒏 𝟑𝟔𝟎 𝟑𝟔𝟓 (𝒅𝒏 + 𝟐𝟖𝟒) (b)

Eccentricity correction factor of the earth‟s orbit is expressed as (Iqbal, 1983):

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3. Results and Discussion

Month S (hours) 𝑺𝟎 (hours) H measured Ho

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0.2 Linear (H/Ho)

Figure 3: Seasonal estimate of global solar radiation for Owerri (1980-2010).

months of the year

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Hmeas and Hest H est4

Months of the year

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Model a b c d R MBE RMSE MPE

Model a b c d R MBE RMSE MPE

𝑯 𝑯𝑶 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟗𝟐𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟕𝟑(𝑺 𝑺𝒐 ) − 𝟕𝐞𝐱𝐩⁡

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