REGRESSION:

Linear regression Logistic regression

Outcome: continuous Outcome: binary (categorical)
For quantifying the relationship between predictor and outcome => clinical
equation
Simple Simple
=> gives the crude OR
Steps: Steps:
1- Model significance (hypo) 1- Model’s significance (hypo)
2- Independent t test - Fitted model – interpretation 2- Independent t test – interpretation
3- Confidence interval 3- Confidence interval
4- R squared

Hypo: Hypo:
H0: β=0 H0: OR = Exp β=1
H1: β≠0 H1: OR = Exp β≠1
Model’s significance: Model’s significance:
Look at t-test’s p-value: if < 0.05 Look at t-test, the OR= Exp β and its p-value: if <0.05
=> we reject H0 and deduce that at alpha =0.05 level of significance the => we reject the null hypothesis of no association and deduce that at
model is significant. There is an association between the variable and the alpha=0.05 lvl of significance, the variable is a predictor of the outcome.
outcome. The variable is a predictor of the outcome.

Fitted model: Interpret the crude OR

Y=α+βX
Y, alpha and beta hat
Interpretations: Interpretations:
Predictor: continuous Predictor: binary Predictor: continuous Predictor: binary
If β>0: If β>0: If β>0: If β>0:
When the predictor increases by 1 When the predictor moves from 0 When the predictor increases by 1 The odds of getting the outcome
unit, the outcome increases by β to 1, the outcome increases by β unit, the odds of the outcome for the predictor coded 1 is OR=Exp
units on average. units on average. increase multiplicatively by OR=Exp β times higher than that for the
β times. predictor coded 0.

If β<0:
When the predictor increases by 1
unit, the outcome decreases by β
units on average.
or: when the predictor decreases
by 1 unit, the outcome increases by
β units on average.
CI
We are 95% confident that the true
effect of a one unit increase in the
predictor on the outcome denoted
as β ranges between – and –.
If β<0:
When the predictor moves from 0
to 1, the outcome decreases by β
units on average.
or: when the predictor moves from
1 to 0, the outcome increases by β
units on average.
CI
We are 95% confident that the true
effect of a 0 to 1 move in the
predictor on the outcome denoted
as β ranges between – and –.
If β<0:
When the predictor increases by 1
unit, the odds of the outcome
decrease multiplicatively by OR=
Exp β times.
CI
We are 95% confident that the true
OR for the outcome coded 1 for the
variables coded 1 versus 0 ranges
between – and –.
If β<0:
The odds of getting the outcome
for the predictor coded 0 is OR=Exp
β times higher than that for the
predictor coded 1.
CI
We are 95% confident that the a
one unit increase in the predictor
leads to a true OR for the outcome
coded 1 that ranges between – and
–.

This CI does not cross 0, we reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at
alpha = 0.05 the variable is a significant predictor of the outcome.
Both limits are:
>0 – the relationship between the predictor and the outcome is
incremental, when the predictor increases, the outcome increases.
This CI does not cross 1, we reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at
alpha = 0.05 the variable is a significant predictor of the outcome.
Both limits are:
>1 – the variable increases the risk of the outcome, therefore the variable
is a risk factor.

<0 – as the predictor increases, the outcome decreases. <0 – the variable decreases the risk of the outcome, therefore the variable
is a protective factor.
OR:
This CI crosses 0, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at OR:
alpha = 0.05 the variable is not a predictor of the outcome. This CI crosses 1, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at
alpha = 0.05 the variable is not a predictor of the outcome.
OR>1 -> harmful factor
OR<1 -> protective factor

To express a protective factor as a harmful factor = 1/OR(protector)

R squared:
- coefficient of determination

R squared % of the variability in the outcome is explained by the

predictor/s.

NB: If % > 90-95 => v good predictive model.

Interpret the slope β:

Look at the fitted model:
β>0 – increase
β<0 – decrease

As predictor increases by 1 unit, outcome increases by β units on average.

Multiple Multiple
=> gives the adjusted OR

Steps: Steps:
1- Model significance (hypo) – F test 1- Model’s significance (hypo)
2- Separate t tests for each predictor – fitted model - 2- Separate independent t test – interpretation
interpretation 3- Confidence interval
3- Confidence interval Hypo:
4- R squared H0: All ORs = 1
Hypo: H1: at least one OR is ≠1
H0: β(a)= β(b)= β(c)=0
H1: at least 2 of the β is ≠0
Model’s significance: Model’s significance:
Look at the overall F test statistic, its p-value: if <0.05: Look at p-values of the ORs, if <0.05
=> we reject the null hypothesis of no association and deduce that at => we reject the null hypothesis and we can deduce that at alpha=0.05, the
alpha=0.05, at least one of the variables is significantly associated with the model is significant and at at least one of the ORs is different than 1.
outcome.

Separate t-test for each predictor: regression table Separate t-test for each predictor:
Hypo:
H0: β(a)=0 in a model that contains b and c
H1: β(a)≠0 in a model that contains b and c

Look at t statistic value, and p-value, if <0.05

=> we reject H0 and deduce that at alpha=0.05, in a model that contains b
and c, A is a significant predictor of the outcome.

Fitted Model:
Y = α + βa X + βb X + βc X

Interpretations:

Predictor: continuous Predictor: binary

If β>0:
Adjusting for b and c, when the
predictor a increases by 1 unit, the
outcome increases by β units on
average.
If β>0:
Adjusting for b and c, when the
predictor a moves from 0 to 1, the
outcome increases by β units on
average.

If β<0: decreases If β<0: decreases

CI
Adjusting for the effect of b and c,
we are 95% confident that the true
effect of a one unit increase in the
predictor a on the outcome
denoted as β ranges between – and
–.
CI
Adjusting for the effect of b and c,
we are 95% confident that the true
effect #of a 0 to 1 move in the
predictor on the outcome denoted
as β ranges between – and –.
This CI does not cross 0, we reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at
alpha = 0.05 the variable a is a significant predictor of the outcome in a
model that contains b and c.
Both limits are:
>0 – the relationship between the predictor and the outcome is
incremental, when the predictor a increases, the outcome increases in a
model that contains b and c.

<0 – as the predictor a increases, the outcome decreases in a model that

contains b and c.

OR:
This CI crosses 0, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and deduce that at
alpha = 0.05 the variable is not a predictor of the outcome in a model that
contains b and c.
R squared:
- coefficient of determination

R squared % of the variability in the outcome is explained by the predictors

NB: If % > 90-95 => v good predictive model.

Interpret the slope β:
Look at the fitted model:
β>0 – increase
β<0 – decrease

Adjusting for the effect of b and c, as predictor a increases by 1 unit,

outcome increases by β units on average