Probability fer ait) 1 There are 6 t-shirts hanging on a washing without looking. Is each statement true or false? It is certain that you will take a shirt with flowers. There is no chance that you will take a shirt with spots. There is an even chance that you will take a shirt with flowers. There is a poor chance that you will take a shirt with spots. There is a poor chance that you will take a shirt with stripes. An online random generator is used to flip a coin 50 times. Here are the outcomes. Key ‘his heads “t is tails Copy and complete the table to show how many heads and tails there are.8.1 Likelihood Probability is about understanding the world and the decisions you make every day. It helps you to decide what risks to take. These signs all warn you about risks. How could you find out what the risk is and how likely it is to happen? > 8.1 Likelihood Wareroeke * position the likelihood of events on a likelihood scale + lear about equally likely events. Probability can help you make decisions about when to do something. This astronomer needs a clear sky to look at the stars. certain equally likely even chance impossible likely outcome unlikely gettyimages | 25> od8 Probability She can use a weather forecast to help her decide when to look at the stars, 2100 | 2200 | 2300 0100 | 0200 | 0300 | 0400 | 0500 When is it likely to be clear? How likely is it to rain? What time would be best for studying the stars? Ware Draw arrows on the likelihood scale to show the chance of each event happening. A Rolling a5 ona 6-sided dice. B_ Flipping a coin and getting heads. a impossible unlikely even likely certain chance There are six possible outcomes on a 6-sided dice. Work out the chance of rolling Only one of the outcomes is 5. iSonic G:sided dice: So rolling a 5 is unlikely. There are two equally likely possible outcomes Work out the chance of a coin when flipping a coin. landing on heads. One of the outcomes is heads.8.1 Likelihood So, there is an even chance that the coin lands on heads. A 8 + | 1. Draw arrows to show the impossible unlikely even _ likely _—_certain chance of each outcome on chance the likelihood scale. Exercise 8.1 1 Copy this likelihood scale. a impossible unlikely even likely certain chance Draw arrows to show the likelihood of the following events happening. When you roll a dice you will get a 3. When you flip a coin it will land on tails. It will rain today. Write three statements of your own and add them to the likelihood scale.Copy this likelihood scale. ee impossible unlikely even likely certain chance Look at this spinner. Mark the likelihood of each of these ‘outcomes on your likelihood scale. a. Scoring an odd number. b Scoring an even number. © Scoring less than 5. d_ Scoring a number greater than 6. Which two shapes are equally from this bag? Sofia has this bag of letter tiles. She takes one tile out of the bag at a time. She writes the letter, then puts the tile back into the bag. Copy and complete these sentences There are letter tiles. of the tiles are the letter E. The chance of taking a letter E is unlikely / even chance / certain. d_Itis equally likely that Sofia will take letter __ or letter eLetter is the most likely to be taken. Write two sentences of your own about the likelihood of Sofia taking different tiles from the bag in question 4.8.1 Likelihood RO a ecru) Sarah and Lou are playing a game with two coins. They flip both the coins. Sarah scores one point if the coins both land heads up. Lou scores one point if one coin is heads and one is tails. No points are scored if the coins both land tails up. Do you think that Sarah and Lou are equally likely to win? Draw a table to record the coin flips. Flip two coins 50 times and record your results. Do the results of the coin flips suggest that Sarah and Lou are equally likely to win the game? Talk to your partner and teacher about your results and write down your thoughts about the game using the language of chance. + You are conjecturing when you form an idea about whether Sarah and Lou are equally likely to win. You are convincing when you explain your results to your partner and teacher. Ceara cer Mae uccn nt Mar tats Cea an arecmuCeuC CC ay Rietacrntar iene ied ioe ta tar at rar Paracas} I can position the likelihood of events on a likelihood scale. | I can say if two events are equally likely.> 8.2 Experiments and simulations + carry out experiments and simulations to investigate probability. Simulations can help us to know the lkelhood of on outcome ; happening. } (One way of using simulations is to program a computer to use data from previous outcomes to work out what would happen if something was done thousands of times. These simulations can try to predict things like whether a goal is likely to be scored from different positions on a football pitch nea Daa ev... 8.2 Experiments and simulations Marcus wants t - simulate whether a cat will have male or female kit ps accein. If the coin lands heads up it represents a male kitter If the coin lands tails up it repre: female kitten Is this an appropriate simulation The kittens could be male or female. Describe the likelihood of the real ikelIhood of a kitten being male isOa Tee ‘Lorado Marcus wants to simulate whether a cat will have male or female kittens. He flips a coin. if the coin lands heads up it represents a male kitten. If the coin lands tails up it represents a female kitten. Is this an appropriate simulation? The kittens could be male or female, Describe the likelihood of the real +The likelihood of a kitten being male is outcomes. even chance. The likelihood of a kitten being female is even chance. It is equally likely that the kittens will be male or female. The coin could land on heads or tails Deseribe the likelihood of the ‘+The likelihood of the coin landing on iciseeynies onthe Siac co: heads is even chance The likelihood of the coin landing on tails is even chance. It is equally likely that the coin will land heads or tails. Answer: Yes, a flipped coin is an appropriate way to simulate whether the kittens will be male or female because the outcomes are equally likely and the coin has two equally likely outcomes.8 Probability Exercise 8.2 96 1 You are going to do an experiment to investigate the likelihood of different outcomes when you roll two dice and find the difference between the two numbers. a What different outcomes can you get if you roll two dice and find the difference between the two numbers? b Do you think that all the outcomes are equally likely? © Copy the table and complete the first column. d_ Roll two dice 30 times and record the results in your table. € Drawa bar chart to show your results. Abar chart showing the frequency of different outcomes when | throw two dice and find the difference between the two numbers Frequency The difference between the two numbers f Do your results suggest that the outcomes are all equally likely? g What could you do to check?2 8.2 Experiments and simulations There are five shapes in a bag. ‘Arun took a shape out of the bag, looked at it and put it back into the bag. He did this eight times. These are the shapes he saw. sgotsoss Write true or false for each statement. i There was at least one sphere in the bag. ji There was definitely not a triangular prism in the bag. iii There might be more than one cube in the bag. iv. There is definitely only one cylinder in the bag, b_ Sketch the five shapes that you predict might be in the bag © Explain why you chose those five shapes for your prediction. d_ What could you do to improve your prediction without looking into the bag? Rachel programmed a spreadsheet to simulate 50 coin flips. The spreadsheet creates random numbers from 1 to 3. Rachel says, ‘The odd numbers represent coin flips that land on heads. ‘The even numbers represent coin flips that land on tails. Rachel's spreadsheet list looks like this: How many even numbers are in Rachel's list? 3 91 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 1 33 3 1 2 3091 3 2 323 322 3091 2 3 2 12 12 3 1 2 13°23 223 22421 a b How many odd numbers are in Rachel's list? Explain what is wrong with Rachel's simulation. Suggest a better way to simulate the coin flips using random. numbers. 974 The weather forecast says that there is an even chance of rain for the next 7 days. Sofia made a simulation of the weather using a dice. Numbers 1, 2 and 3 are rainy days. Numbers 4, 5 and 6 are dry days. Sofia rolled the dice 7 times to see what might happen. These are her results. Day1 | Day2 | Day3 | Day4 | Day5 | Day6é | Day7 Ce a How many rainy days are there in Sofia’s simulation? How many dry days are there in Sofia's simulation? Draw your own table and carry out your own simulation of the weather using Sofio’s rules. d_ How many rainy days are there in your simulation? How many dry days are there in your simulation? aan re ee ee Cen ck ue itea CC Ce comune em aac tat OC M TE Rome Uma Lumut late8.2 Experiments and simulations Ra Rca) Use computer software to generate 100 random numbers from 1 to 20. How many times does the number 1 appear in the list? How many numbers in the list are greater than 10? How many numbers in the list are less than 6? Generate another set of 100 random numbers from 1 to 20. Answer questions a, b and c using the 100 new numbers. Zara says that the numbers 1 to 20 are all equally likely so each number will appear the same number of times in the list. Explain why Zara is wrong. Look at your partner's explanation. Did they write about the results of their simulation? Did they write about how the more random numbers the computer produces, the closer the results will be to showing that the numbers are all equally likely? + You are characterising when you describe the sets of random numbers, + You are convincing when you explain why Zara is wrong. ery eran oT can carry out experiments and simulations to investigate probability. eee 1 Draw a likelihood scale. SS impossible unlikely even likely certain chance Look at the picture of the pile of sweets. Draw arrows on the scale to show the likelihood of the following events happening. a Taking a strawberry sweet. b Taking an orange sweet. ¢ Taking a banana sweet.8 Probability RUT 2 Compare and describe the likelihood of taking a lemon sweet and the likelihood of taking a lime sweet from the pile in question 1. 3 Marcus has collected seeds to grow. He knows that 1 seed out of every 4 does not grow. He uses this spinner to simulate how many of his seeds will grow into plants. He spins it once for each seed he has. These are Marcus's results: green green red red green green green green red green red red red green green green How many seeds does Marcus have? How many of Marcus's seeds grow in the simulation? How many of Marcus's seeds do not grow in the simulation? Use probability language to describe the likelihood that a seed will grow.