Fundamentals of Corporate

Finance, 2/e

ROBERT PARRINO, PH.D.

DAVID S. KIDWELL, PH.D.
THOMAS W. BATES, PH.D.
 Chapter 12: Evaluating Project
Economics and Capital Rationing
 Learning Objectives
1. Explain and demonstrate how variable costs
and fixed costs affect the volatility of pretax
operating cash flows and accounting
operating profits.
2. Calculate and distinguish between the
degree of pretax cash fl ow operating
leverage and the degree of accounting
operating leverage.
 Learning Objectives
3. DEFINE AND CALCULATE THE PRETAX OPERATING
CASH FLOW AND ACCOUNTING OPERATING PROFIT
break-even POINTS AND THE CROSSOVER LEVELS
OF UNIT SALES FOR A PROJECT.
4. Define sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and
simulation analysis and describe how they are used
to evaluate the risks associated with a project.
 Learning Objectives
5. Explain how the profitability index can be
used to rank projects when a firm faces
capital rationing and describe the limitations
that apply to the profitability index.
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o Variable costs are costs that vary directly with
the number of units sold.
o Fixed costs, in contrast, do not vary with unit
sales – at least in the short run.
o A project with a higher proportion of fixed
costs will have cash flows and accounting
profits that are more sensitive to changes in
revenues.
EXHIBIT 12.1: Unit and Annual
Costs for Hammock Project
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o PRETAX OPERATING CASH FLOW

EBITDA = Revenue – Op Ex
where Op Ex = VC + FC

• EBITDA is often called pretax operating cash

flow because it equals the incremental pretax
cash operating profits from a project.
Exhibit 12.2: EBITDA Under Alternative
Production Technologies
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o COST STRUCTURE AND SENSITIVITY OF EBITDA
TO REVENUE CHANGES
• Comparing the sensitivity of EBITDA to
changes in revenue helps understand the risks
and returns of different decision alternatives.
• Distinguishing between fixed and variable costs
enables us to calculate the sensitivity of
EBITDA to changes in revenue.
Exhibit 12.3: Changes in EBITDA under
Alternative Production Technologies
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o COST STRUCTURE AND SENSITIVITY OF EBITDA
TO REVENUE CHANGES
• Exhibit 12.3 shows how EBITDA is more
sensitive to changes in revenue with the
automated production process than with the
manual process.
• The reason for the difference is that more of the
total costs are fixed with the automated process,
making it more difficult to adjust costs when
revenue changes.
Exhibit 12.4: EBITDA for Different Levels of
Unit Sales
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o COST STRUCTURE AND SENSITIVITY OF EBITDA
TO REVENUE CHANGES
• Exhibit 12.4 shows how EBITDA changes as the
number of units sold changes for both the
manual and the automated production process.
• Automated production process produces larger
declines in EBITDA when unit sales are lower
and larger increases in EBITDA when unit sales
are higher.
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o COST STRUCTURE AND SENSITIVITY OF EBIT
TO REVENUE CHANGES
• The sensitivity of EBIT to changes in revenue is
of concern to managers because EBIT is a
performance measure that is of interest to
investors.
• EBITDA calculation does not include
depreciation and amortization (D&A).
 Variable Costs, Fixed Costs, And
Project Risk
o COST STRUCTURE AND SENSITIVITY OF EBIT
TO REVENUE CHANGES
• Depreciation and amortization acts just like a
fixed cost, hence included in the EBIT
calculation to effectively increase the proportion
of costs that are fixed.
• When D&A is greater than zero, the percentage
change in EBIT is greater than the percentage
change in EBITDA.
Exhibit 12.5: Changes in EBITDA and
EBIT
 Calculating Operating Leverage
o OPERATING LEVERAGE
• Is a measure of the relative amounts of fixed
and variable costs in a project’s cost structure; it
will be higher with more fixed costs.
• Two measures of operating Leverage:
Degree of pretax cash flow operating leverage
Degree of accounting operating leverage
 Calculating Operating Leverage
o DEGREE OF PRETAX CASH FLOW OPERATING
LEVERAGE
• Measures the sensitivity of pretax operating
cash flows to changes in revenue.

• It changes with the level of revenue; the

sensitivity of operating cash flows are not the
same for all levels of revenue.
 Calculating Operating Leverage
o DEGREE OF PRETAX CASH FLOW OPERATING
LEVERAGE
• Calculate the Cash Flow DOL for the automated
production alternative in Exhibit 12.2.

• EBITDA in the denominator of equation 12.2

varies directly with revenue and will be larger for
larger amounts of revenue. The Cash Flow DOL
will be smaller as revenue increases.
Exhibit 12.6: EBITDA with Unit Sales
 Calculating Operating Leverage
o DEGREE OF ACCOUNTING OPERATING
LEVERAGE
• Measures the sensitivity of accounting
operating profits, EBIT, to changes in revenue.
Fixed Charges
Accounting DOL  1 
Accounting operating profits
FC  D & A
 1
EBITDA  D & A
FC  D & A
 1 (12.3)
EBIT
 Calculating Operating Leverage
o DEGREE OF ACCOUNTING OPERATING
LEVERAGE EXAMPLE
• Calculate the Accounting DOL for the
automated production alternative in Exhibit 12.5
for expected demand.
 Break-Even Analysis
o Break-Even ANALYSIS
• Analysis that tells us how many units must be
sold in order for a project to Break-Even on a
cash flow or accounting profit basis
• Helps to understand the sensitivity of cash
flows and accounting profits to changes in the
number of units that will be sold
 Break-Even Analysis
o PRETAX OPERATING CASH FLOW Break-Even
• Number of units that must be sold for pretax
operating cash flow to equal $0
FC
EBITDA Break-even = (12.4)
Price - Unit VC
 Break-Even Analysis
o CASH FLOW Break-Even EXAMPLE
• Calculate the EBITDA Break-Even points for
the automated and manual production
alternatives in Exhibit 12.2.
Exhibit 12.7: EBITDA Break-Even Points
 Break-Even Analysis
o PER-UNIT CONTRIBUTION
• Dollar amount that is left over from the sale of a
single unit after all the variable costs associated
with that unit have been paid
• Amount that is available to help cover fixed
costs for the project
 Break-Even Analysis
o CROSSOVER LEVEL OF UNIT SALES (CO)
• Level of unit sales at which cash flows or
profitability for one project alternative switches
from being lower than that of another
alternative to being higher
FCAlternative1  FC Alternative2
COEBITDA  (12.5)
Unit contribution Alt.1  Unit contribution Alt.2
 Break-Even Analysis
o THE CROSSOVER LEVEL OF UNIT SALES
EXAMPLE
• Calculate the Crossover level of unit sales for
the automated and manual production
alternatives in Exhibit 12.2.
 Break-Even analysis
o ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN
• Number of units that must be sold for
accounting operating profit to equal $0

FC+D & A
EBITBreak - Even = .
Price-Unit VC
 Break-Even Analysis
o ACCOUNTING Break-Even
• In addition to the accounting operating profit
Break-even points, we can also calculate the
crossover level of unit sales for EBIT.
(FC  D & A)Alt.1  (FC  D & A)Alt.2
COEBIT  (12.7)
Unit contribution Alt.1  Unit contribution Alt.1
 Break-Even Analysis
o ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN EXAMPLE
• Calculate the accounting operating profit Break-
even point and the crossover level of unit sales
for the automated and manual production
alternatives in Exhibits 12.1 and 12.2.
 Risk Analysis
o Financial analysts must often resort to
different types of risk analysis to obtain a
better understanding of how errors in
forecasting these factors affect the
attractiveness of a project.
 Risk Analysis
o SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
• Involves examination of the sensitivity of the
results from a financial analysis to changes in
individual assumptions
• An analyst might examine how a project’s NPV
changes if there is a decrease in the value of
individual cash inflow assumptions or an
increase in the value of individual cash outflow
assumptions.
Using Excel – Sensitivity Analysis
Exhibit 12.8: Incremental Free Cash
Flows and NPV
 Risk Analysis
o SCENARIO ANALYSIS
• An analytical method concerned with how the
results from a financial analysis will change
under alternative scenarios
• An analyst who wants to examine how the
results from a financial analysis will change
under alternative scenarios performs a scenario
analysis.
 Exhibit 12.9: NPV Values for
Automated Hammock Production
 Risk Analysis
o SIMULATION ANALYSIS
• An analytical method that uses a computer to
quickly examine a large number of scenarios
and obtain probability estimates for various
values in a financial analysis
• Rather than selecting individual values for each
of the assumptions–such as unit sales, unit
price, and unit variable costs–the analyst
assumes that those assumptions can be
represented by statistical distributions.
 Risk Analysis
o SIMULATION ANALYSIS
• A computer program repeatedly draws numbers
for the distributions for various assumptions,
plugs them into the cash flow model, and
computes the annual cash flows and NPV.
• In addition to providing an estimate of the
expected cash flows, it also provides
information on the distribution of the cash
flows that the project is likely to produce in each
year.
 Investment Decisions With Capital
Rationing
o SELECTING THE BEST PROJECTS
• What does a firm do when it does not have
enough money to invest in all available positive-
NPV projects?
• The process of identifying the bundle of
projects that creates the greatest total value and
allocating the available capital to these projects
is known as capital rationing.
 Exhibit 12.10: Positive NPV
Investments for a Single Year
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING IN A SINGLE PERIOD

• Involves choosing the set of projects that creates
the greatest value in a given period
• Goal is to select the projects that yield the
largest value per dollar invested
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING IN A SINGLE PERIOD

• Profitability index (PI) is computed for each
project
• Firm chooses the project(s) with the largest
profitability indices until it runs out of money.
Profitability Index is a measure of the value a project
generates for each dollar invested in that project.
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING IN A SINGLE PERIOD

• Objective is to identify the bundle or
combination of positive-NPV projects that
creates the greatest total value for stockholders.
Benefits Present Value of Future Cash Flows
PI  
Costs Initial Investment
NPV  Initial Investment
 (12.8)
Initial Investment
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o PROFITABILITY INDEX EXAMPLE

• Calculate the profitability index for the lawn
mower problem in Chapter 11. The new mower
costs $2,000 and brings in net cash flows of
$7,000. The discount rate is 10 percent and the
NPV is $20,189.
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING IN A SINGLE PERIOD

• Using PI to choose project(s) that create the
most value per dollar invested (4 step
procedure):
Calculate the PI for each project.
Rank the projects from highest PI to lowest PI.
Starting at the top of the list (the project with the
highest PI) and working your way down (to the project
with the lowest PI), select the projects that the firm can
afford.
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING IN A SINGLE PERIOD

Repeat the third step by starting with the second
project on the list, the third project on the list, and so
on, to make sure that a more valuable bundle cannot
be identified.
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING ACROSS MULTIPLE

PERIODS
• If you are planning to make investments over
several years, the investments you choose this
year can affect your ability to make investments
in future years.
• This can happen if you plan on reinvesting
some or all of the cash flows generated by the
projects you invest in this year.
Investment Decisions With Capital Rationing

o CAPITAL RATIONING ACROSS MULTIPLE

PERIODS
• PI can only be relied upon to identify the
projects that the firm should invest in the
current year.
• A limitation of the profitability index is that it
does not tell us enough to make informed
decisions over multiple periods.
Exhibit 12.11: Positive NPV Investments for
Two Years

Exhibit 12.11: Positive NPV Investments